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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1728

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jul 29 20:38:39 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 292038
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 292038=20
    NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-292145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1728
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0338 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

    Areas affected...far southeastern Montana eastward to the central
    Dakotas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 292038Z - 292145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated storm development is occurring from far
    southeastern Montana into west-central South Dakota, and should
    increase across the western and central Dakotas over the next 1 to 2
    hours. WW issuance may be needed in the next hour.

    DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite and radar imagery show a lone thunderstorm developing over Meade County in South Dakota, and
    TCU/CB growth over far southeastern Montana along the southwestern
    North Dakota/northwestern South Dakota border area. The convection
    is developing on the western fringe of the CAPE axis, with 1000 to
    2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE observed either side of the North
    Dakota/South Dakota border.

    Storm development -- though overall coverage appears likely to
    remain widely scattered -- is expected to increase over the next 1
    to 2 hours. Though low-level flow remains weak across the area,
    moderate mid-level flow is contributing to sufficient shear for organized/rotating updrafts. Presuming sufficient storm coverage
    evolves, risk for damaging winds and hail with the stronger cells
    will likely warrant WW issuance -- perhaps within the next hour or
    so.

    ..Goss/Gleason.. 07/29/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7bD3xR1YTbB4lVTm_DxjbCXA4jImTMsMWEWrUAQ-QCwgpk0qqWK3ClTMiiM8aiuzgpkyerx2k= 70Z6Mee7dUpUNMgokQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

    LAT...LON 44260364 45250443 46880368 47740077 46609870 44689950
    43890141 44260364=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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