ACUS11 KWNS 300233
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300233=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-300400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1734
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0933 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Areas affected...Parts of southeastern North Dakota and northeastern
South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561...

Valid 300233Z - 300400Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561
continues.

SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across portions of
southern/southeastern North Dakota and northern/northeastern South
Dakota in Severe Thunderstorm Watch 561. The severe threat may
spread eastward out of the watch, and a new watch or watch extension
may be needed.

DISCUSSION...An increasingly organized north/south-oriented MCS is
tracking eastward across south-central ND and north-central SD at
around 30-40 kt, while an additional cluster of storms to its east
is drifting slowly northward within a warm-advection wing. The MCS
is gradually merging/overtaking the eastern cluster. Ahead of these
storms, 2500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE (sampled by the ABR 00Z sounding) will
likely support the maintenance of this activity as it continues
eastward. Additionally, the ABR 00Z sounding and recent KBIS VWP
data indicate a long/straight hodograph -- characterized by around
40 kt of westerly deep-layer shear. The combination of the favorable instability and shear vectors oriented perpendicular to the
leading-edge gust front, should favor a continued organized/linear
mode. Severe wind gusts to around 75 mph will be the primary
concern.=20

A downstream watch or watch extension may be needed.

..Weinman.. 07/30/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7RT93VHX4lywfZEb9lFZxLAyp4lAWxEQrmibFBHcHUj_gVVqqLHL5cEwQ5_hbR5l_rLQfy0Hm= _kzYB29xoe1esNQyEY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 45900001 46420010 46749990 46929975 47099910 47109835
47059778 46909722 46549689 45909685 45559737 45369888
45469989 45900001=20


=3D =3D =3D
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