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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1773

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Jul 31 22:18:42 2024
    ACUS11 KWNS 312218
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 312218=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-010015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1773
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0518 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

    Areas affected...Northeast South Dakota...Southern and Central
    Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579...

    Valid 312218Z - 010015Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 579
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind gusts and large hail is likely to
    continue for several more hours from far northeast South Dakota into
    parts of western and central Minnesota. The severe threat is
    expected to persist past the 00Z expiration of Watch 579, and new
    watch issuance may become necessary.

    DISCUSSION...The latest radar from Aberdeen shows a cluster of
    severe storms from east of Aberdeen into far western Minnesota.
    These storms are located along a sharp gradient of instability near
    an area of maximized low-level convergence. Short-term model
    solutions suggest this cluster will continue move eastward into
    parts of west-central Minnesota, and potentially expanding southward
    into south-central Minnesota. According to the RAP, moderate to
    strong instability is present over much central and southern
    Minnesota, where MLCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 4000 J/kg range.
    This, combined with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 30 knot range, evident
    on regional WSR-88D VWPs, will support a continued severe threat.
    Large hail and severe gusts will be likely with the stronger cells.
    The most intense storms could produce hailstones greater than 2
    inches in diameter, along with isolated wind gusts, perhaps above 65
    knots.

    ..Broyles.. 07/31/2024

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8j1O9wff6u3mVU9TOi3k4VLREV8CHe9L1p2Hk3gaWP5lqXv_GHDtXJQZ3ThWVGrGD9DmVGAME= T97-q3BDyJLM-8Te6U$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

    LAT...LON 44629724 44889772 45169784 45459778 45729741 46239626
    46529516 46579389 46269314 45749274 45109272 44989273
    44649283 44219312 44089358 44099439 44339578 44629724=20


    =3D =3D =3D
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