ACUS01 KWNS 010112
SWODY1
SPC AC 010111

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0811 PM CDT Wed Jul 31 2024

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
SD INTO SOUTHERN MN...CENTRAL/EASTERN IA...AND FAR NORTHERN MO...

CORRECTED FOR HAIL GRAPHICS

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of severe/damaging gusts, isolated
hail, and a tornado or two remain possible this evening into the
overnight from the central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest
and Ohio Valley.

...Central/northern Plains into parts of the Midwest...
Strong to extreme instability remains in place this evening across
parts of the central and northern Plains into parts of the mid/upper
MS Valley. An intense bowing storm cluster with a history of 70-90
mph gusts is currently approaching central Iowa, with other intense cells/clusters ongoing across parts of eastern SD into southern MN,
and also across central/northern KS. Moderate deep-layer flow/shear
attendant to a seasonably strong shortwave trough over the northern
Plains will continue to support organized severe potential through
the evening, and potentially into the overnight hours.

Uncertainty remains regarding the evolution/longevity of ongoing
storm clusters, and the potential for additional upscale growth.
Ongoing supercells will continue to pose a threat of large to very
large hail and localized severe gusts. A tornado or two is also
possible, especially across southeast SD into northwest IA and
southwest MN, where very rich low-level moisture and backed surface
winds are in place.

The bowing segment across IA will likely continue to pose a threat
for severe/damaging gusts (potentially in excess of 75 mph) through
central and potentially into eastern IA. Some upscale growth is
possible with ongoing storms across MN/southeast SD, and also across
northern KS, which would also pose a threat of severe/damaging
gusts, potentially in excess of 75 mph. Eventually, one or more
upscale-growing clusters could spread east-southeastward into parts
of MO/IL/IN overnight, with some continued threat of damaging wind.
A line-embedded tornado or two will also be possible with any
intense bowing segments tonight.

...Parts of the OH Valley into the southern Appalachians...
A weakening storm complex moving southeastward across southeast
KY/eastern TN could pose a short-term threat of damaging wind.
Farther northwest, moderate to strong buoyancy persists across parts
of southern IL/IN, and there will be some potential for a few
stronger storms through the evening. Any upstream MCS development
across MO could eventually spread into parts of the OH Valley, with
some damaging-wind potential.

...Southwest AZ vicinity...
High-based convection may continue to pose a threat for strong to
locally severe gusts across parts of southwest AZ into the lower CO
River Valley through late evening, before convection diminishes
overnight.

..Dean.. 08/01/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131356
SWODY1
SPC AC 131354

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0854 AM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...AS WELL AS SOUTH
CAROLINA...

CORRECTED FOR ERROR IN TEXT

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin/northern
Intermountain region into the northern/central High Plains and
central Great Plains, as well as South Carolina.

...The Intermountain Region to the central and northern High
Plains...
Several weak disturbances/vorticity maxima are forecast to move
through the broader/weakly cyclonic flow field that will persist
across the West today. A residual plume of seasonably high moisture
resides from the Four Corners northward into the northern High
Plains. The most notable mid-level shortwave will move from the
OR/NV vicinity this morning northeastward into MT this
afternoon/evening. Heating will contribute to weak to moderate
instability across this broad region from the Interior West to the
High Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are forecast to
develop by late this afternoon into the early evening. A locally
greater severe risk may evolve from eastern ID into northern UT
where forecast soundings show shear profiles supporting a mixed mode
of supercells/multicells. However, some uncertainty remains due to
ongoing early morning convection and related airmass recovery.
Nonetheless, an isolated risk for hail/wind will likely encompass
the UT/ID/WY/MT corridor. Farther east and northeast, an isolated
threat for hail/wind will potentially accompany the stronger
late-day storms with some of this activity lingering into the
evening across eastern CO in the form of a thunderstorm cluster.

...Central Plains/lower MO Valley...
As a 40-plus kt south-southwesterly low-level jet develops across
the central Plains during the evening, elevated storm development is
expected north of a west-to-east surface front forecast to reside
over central Kansas. With moderate CAPE expected atop the
cool/stable boundary layer north of the front, a few stronger storms
are expected to evolve, potentially capable of producing hail at or
exceeding severe levels. Strong/gusty outflow winds will also be
possible, particularly with storms nearer the frontal zone.

...South Carolina...
Surface analysis this morning depicts a remnant weak frontal zone
draped from southern GA into the Carolinas. A very moist airmass
sampled by the 12 UTC Charleston raob (16.7 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean
mixing ratio) will diurnally destabilize today. Weak convergence
via the frontal zone will aid in widely scattered storms developing
by early to mid afternoon due to a negligible cap. A mid to
upper-level disturbance moving southeast into the southern
Appalachians this morning will move to the Carolina coastal plain
later today. Moderate west-northwesterlies (around 30 kt at 500 mb)
may aid in some multicellular organization. Isolated gusts 50-60
mph capable of wind damage will be the primary concern with the
stronger storms.

..Smith/Jewell.. 08/13/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140139
SWODY1
SPC AC 140137

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0837 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI...

CORRECTED THUNDER LINE IN NORTHERN MONTANA

...SUMMARY...
Isolated wind/hail risk will persist for the next few hours from
eastern Colorado into southwestern Nebraska and northern Kansas.
Some risk for hail/wind may also evolve from central Nebraska
southeastward into Missouri.

...Central High Plains eastward to the Middle Missouri Valley, and southeastward into Missouri...
An upscale-growing band of strong/severe storms has evolved over the northeastern Colorado vicinity this evening, moving eastward toward southwestern Nebraska and northwestern Kansas. Evening RAOBs and
RAP-based objective analyses indicate moderate instability (1000 to
2000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE), and sufficient shear to allow storms to
continue to organize and shift eastward this evening. Along with
potential for hail, locally damaging wind gusts in the 60 to 70 MPH
range can be expected.

Later tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet across
the central Plains and associated ascent may support a separate zone
of elevated storm development, where moderate elevated CAPE is
expected. With shear sufficient for organized storms, and even a
supercell or two, local risk for hail -- and possibly a strong wind
gust -- warrants continuation of MRGL risk across this area.

..Goss.. 08/14/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 240629
SWODY1
SPC AC 240627

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 AM CDT Sat Aug 24 2024

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PARTS OF WESTERN
MO...AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible today from the Four
Corners region northeastward into the central High Plains. Strong to
severe storms are also possible across western Missouri and also
across western Oklahoma.

...Synopsis...
A deep mid/upper-level trough will remain in place over the West
today. An embedded mid/upper cyclone is forecast to move
southeastward from northern CA into the Great Basin. Downstream, an
upper-level anticyclone will remain anchored over the southern Great
Plains. One surface low is forecast to gradually deepen across the
northern High Plains, while another weak surface low may develop
across the south-central High Plains.

...Four Corners region into the central High Plains...
The eastern fringe of stronger southwesterly flow aloft (associated
with the deep upper trough) will overspread a plume of midlevel
moisture from the Four Corners region into the central Rockies.
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the region
this afternoon. Effective shear of 30-40 kt and modest but
sufficient buoyancy will support potential for a few loosely
organized cells and/or clusters, with a threat of isolated strong to
severe gusts.

Richer low-level moisture and stronger instability will develop this
afternoon across parts of the central High Plains, where moist
easterly flow is maintained to the north of a nearly stationary
surface boundary. With capping and weaker large-scale ascent
expected, storm initiation within this more-unstable regime may be
suppressed. However, high-based convection that develops over the
higher terrain could spread into the central High Plains by early
evening, potentially accompanied by an isolated strong to severe
gusts and perhaps some hail.

...Western MO and vicinity...
Most guidance suggests an increase in elevated convection near and
after 12Z across parts of western MO, driven by low-level warm
advection and moistening in the 850-700 mb layer. Effective shear
will not be particularly strong, but relatively steep midlevel lapse
rates and moderate elevated buoyancy will support potential for a
few robust storms. Isolated hail cannot be ruled out with the
strongest storms. Also, despite the elevated nature of the
convection, initially rather dry profiles below the moist layer
could support locally strong gusts.

Depending on the coverage and intensity of morning convection,
cold-pool development will be possible, which could lead to a southward-propagating cluster across western MO. This scenario
remains quite uncertain, but there will be some potential for an
isolated damaging-gust threat to spread into southwest MO from late
morning into the afternoon.

...Parts of western OK into northwest TX...
Despite generally weak large-scale ascent, some guidance suggests
potential for isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development
within a very hot/well-mixed environment across parts of western OK
into northwest TX late this afternoon into the early evening. With
weak deep-layer shear and the influence of the upper ridge, storms
will likely remain disorganized, and coverage of storms remains
uncertain. However, any stronger storm within this environment would
pose a conditional microburst threat. A 5% wind area has been added
where relative confidence in storm development is currently
greatest.

...Northeast MT into northwest ND...
Moderate to locally strong instability may develop this afternoon
from far northeast MT into northwest ND, with sufficient deep-layer
shear to support storm organization. However, large-scale ascent is
expected to remain rather weak across the region, and there is only
a very weak signal for diurnal storm development. Some threat for
severe hail and/or wind could accompany any robust storm within this
regime, but confidence in storm coverage is too low for
probabilities at this time.

..Dean/Karstens.. 08/24/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 251639
SWODY1
SPC AC 251638

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 AM CDT Sun Aug 25 2024

Valid 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD THUNDER

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind gusts and hail are most probable today over parts of the
Four Corners to southwestern Wyoming, and this evening over portions
of the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along/ahead of the
cold front and near a South Dakota surface wave, primarily this
evening after 00Z/7pm CDT, although enough moistening and heating
may occur for isolated late-afternoon development. Some supercells
and bowing lines/clusters are expected, with large hail and severe
wind gusts possible.

Intensifying thunderstorm development should occur as the front
encounters what is left of a diurnally well-heated and
still-unstable boundary-layer airmass. Forecast soundings indicate
the moist layer should deepen through the day beneath strong capping
and steep mid-level lapse rates, MLCAPE in the 3000-4000 J/kg range
possible. This will occur with gradually strengthening
west-southwesterly winds aloft with 30-45 kt effective shear.

Additional severe storms may occur late this afternoon into evening
within an evolving post-frontal environment across northeast Wyoming
into northwest South Dakota/southwest North Dakota, with moderate
buoyancy and very long/straight hodographs potentially supporting
storms capable of hail and possibly severe-caliber wind gusts.

...Central/southern Rockies...
Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing early today across eastern Utah
and western Colorado in advance of an upper-level trough centered
over Nevada. A greater coverage and intensity of storms should occur
into the afternoon as the boundary layer further warms/destabilizes.
Relatively strong mid/high-level southwesterlies will support ample deep-layer/effective shear, with supercells and bowing clusters
possible in a corridor spanning portions of the Four Corners area to
northern Colorado/southwest Wyoming. Elongated and semi-straight
hodographs will support large-hail potential aside from a broader
regional risk for severe-caliber wind gusts.

...South-central High Plains...
Scattered slow-moving thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
particularly across eastern Colorado and northeast New Mexico.
Hot/well-mixed boundary layers within the pre-convective environment
will support the possibility of strong to locally severe-caliber
wind gusts through late afternoon until around sunset.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 08/25/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150121
SWODY1
SPC AC 150119

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0819 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED THUNDER LINE

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe gusts and hail
will be possible this evening over parts of the central and northern
Plains.

...Central and Northern Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the
Dakotas extending southward into northern Nebraska. Along this
corridor, the RAP has a two distinct vorticity maxima analyzed. At
the surface, a trough is located in the northern High Plains, and a
moist airmass is present over much of the central and northern
Plains. Surface dewpoints within this moist airmass vary from the
mid 50s to mid 60s F. The RAP suggests that moderate instability is
present from west-central Nebraska into parts of the Dakotas, where
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing. The North Platte
00Z sounding has the best severe environment regionally, with MLCAPE
near 1500 J/kg, and 0-3 km shear around 35 knots. On this sounding,
the average low to mid-level lapse rate is near 7.5 C/km. This,
along with instability and shear suggest that a marginal severe
threat will likely continue for a few more hours. Isolated severe
gusts and hail will be possible with rotating cells. The threat is
expected to diminish during the mid to late evening as instability
decreases across the region.

..Broyles.. 09/15/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 271949
SWODY1
SPC AC 271947

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0247 PM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024

Valid 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA INTO FAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
A couple of tornadoes remain possible this afternoon across parts of
North Carolina into Virginia.

...20Z Update...
Tornado probabilities have been trimmed to areas preceding the
primary convective rainband associated with the remnants of Helene.
Tornado probabilities were also adjusted over southwestern VA to
account for intensifying convection closer to the center of Helene,
where insolation has destabilized the low-level airmass amid strong
low-level shear. In both of the aforementioned regimes, at least a
couple of tornadoes remain possible with the stronger storms until
they either outpace available buoyancy, or nocturnal cooling
supports boundary-layer stabilization. Please see MCD 2126 for more
short-term details of the ongoing tornado threat.

..Squitieri.. 09/27/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1112 AM CDT Fri Sep 27 2024/

...Synopsis...
The center of Helene is tracking quickly northward across the
mountains over western NC/east TN, with a band of strong convection
to the east of the low extending from southern VA into eastern NC.
Local VAD profiles, surface observations, and model guidance
indicate a continuing very favorable environment for transient
rotating updrafts along this line and the risk of a few tornadoes.
Guidance suggests that low-level wind shear will slowly weaken this
afternoon throughout the northeastern quadrant of the system, with
the line of convection lifting northeastward into a progressively
less moist air mass. Little diurnal heating is expected ahead of
the line, limiting destabilization. These trends would suggest the
overall risk of tornadoes will also slowly weaken by evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 300617
SWODY1
SPC AC 300615

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Wed Oct 30 2024

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWESTERN
MISSOURI...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail,
damaging wind gusts, and a few tornadoes, are expected today into
early tonight, particularly from the middle Missouri Valley area
into the southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
A pronounced mid-level trough will traverse the Plains and become
negatively tilted as it impinges on the Upper MS Valley today.
Surface lee-troughing will remain in place across the Plains,
resulting in the northward transport of an appreciably moist
low-level airmass. A surface low will develop along the KS/OK border
this afternoon and track toward the MS Valley this evening. A cold
front will be draped across the MS Valley into KS while a dryline,
extending from the low, is poised to sweep eastward across OK and
northern TX through the day. Deep-layer ascent along and ahead of
the cold front and dryline will support at least scattered
thunderstorm initiation by late afternoon across the Plains. These
storms will progress eastward amid a buoyant and highly sheared
airmass. Severe storms are likely ahead of the cold front and
dryline, with all hazards possible.

...Upper MS Valley into the southern Plains...
Thunderstorms are expected to first initiate along the cold front
over northern KS into western IA by mid to late afternoon as
stronger upper-level support from the impinging mid-level trough
overspreads the terminus of a 50+ kt southerly low-level jet. 7+
C/km mid-level lapse rates, overspreading rich low-level moisture
(including mid-60s F surface dewpoints), should yield at least 1500
J/kg SBCAPE. Strong southwesterly 500 mb flow overspreading the
low-level jet will contribute to 50+ kts of effective bulk shear,
but with vectors aligned roughly parallel with the front. Initial
semi-discrete storm modes, capable of mainly severe wind/hail, will
quickly merge to form a QLCS with embedded bowing segments and
perhaps a few mesovortices. This initial band of storms should
approach the MS Valley region by sunset, accompanied by mainly
damaging gusts and perhaps an isolated tornado threat.

Farther south into central KS/northern OK, more discrete
thunderstorm development is expected by early evening. Surface
temperatures in the upper 70s F, combined with mid to perhaps upper
60s F dewpoints, will contribute to 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE just
before sunset. Storms that can mature in this environment may
benefit from over 50 kts of effective bulk shear, as well as an
increase in low-level shear upon approaching the western periphery
of the low-level jet. Forecast soundings depict overall curved
low-level hodographs with mid-level elongation and 250-350 m2/s2
effective SRH. As such, supercells should be the initial storm mode
before storm mergers result in squall line development. While many
forecast soundings depict a weakness in the 800-600 mb layer, the
overall strength of the low-level shear suggests at least a few
tornadoes are possible, and a strong tornado or two may occur,
mainly after dark. The severe threat may transition to more of a
damaging gust threat after the squall line forms, though
line-embedded QLCS tornadoes remain possible.

..Squitieri/Lyons.. 10/30/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071644
SWODY1
SPC AC 071642

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES

...SUMMARY...
Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes
are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas.

...West and Central TX...
A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through
tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave
trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX
overnight. The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W
across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing
very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX.


Current indications are that storms will become more numerous
through the afternoon and evening across the region. Vertical shear
profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts,
but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to
the north of the front. Along and to the south of the boundary,
forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of
damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening. Have
extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning
CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later
today.

..Hart.. 11/07/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101640
SWODY1
SPC AC 101639

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1039 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED TO CHANGE SUNDAY TO MONDAY

...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears minimal through tonight.

...Discussion...
An upper low now crossing the Upper Mississippi Valley is forecast
to gradually devolve into an open wave, as it crosses the Upper
Great Lakes region and shifts across the Ottawa River and St.
Lawrence Valleys, and Lower Great Lakes through the end of the
period. As this occurs, a surface cold front will similarly
progress eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest region
today, reaching the central and southern Appalachians by 11/12Z
(Monday morning).

Ahead of the front, a relatively moist boundary layer but weak lapse
rates aloft will permit only weak warm-sector instability. While a
more tropical low-level airmass will reside in the vicinity of the
Lower Mississippi Valley, in part due to east-southeasterly
advection associated with the presence of Tropical Storm Rafael
sitting nearly stationary over the central Gulf, weak shear
precludes appreciable severe potential. Farther north, stronger
flow aloft will be offset by lower theta-e/weak CAPE as compared to
areas farther south. As such, severe weather is not anticipated.

..Goss/Lyons.. 11/10/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111636
SWODY1
SPC AC 111635

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1035 AM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight.

...Discussion...
A progressive large-scale regime will persist with troughing
prevalent over the West and Great Lakes to Northeast, with upper
ridging over the Great Plains. Over the middle Gulf Coast, isolated
to widely scattered, episodic thunderstorms will be possible near an
inverted trough and convergence zone in low levels, extending
northeastward from the weakening, post-tropical remains of Rafael. A
few strong storms may occur near coastal southeast Louisiana, but
near-land severe potential should remain limited.

..Guyer/Lyons.. 11/11/2024

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020211
SWODY1
SPC AC 020210

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0910 PM CDT Tue Apr 01 2025

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA...KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storm development will be possible into the
overnight across parts of the southern and central Plains, with
large hail and severe gusts. A tornado will be possible. Late
tonight, an organized line of thunderstorms with severe wind gusts
and isolated large hail is expected to develop across parts of
central and eastern Kansas.

...Southern Plains...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a southwest flow pattern over
the central U.S., with several low-amplitude shortwave troughs
moving through the flow. One shortwave trough appears to be in
south-central Kansas and western Oklahoma. This feature is likely
supporting isolated convective development to the east of a
Kansas-Oklahoma dryline. To the east of the dryline early this
evening, surface dewpoints are in the 50s F across south-central
Kansas and near 60 F over much of Oklahoma. MLCAPE to the east of
the dryline is estimated by the RAP to be between 1000 and 2000
J/kg. Moistening will likely continue to occur across the southern
Plains this evening, and convective initiation will be possible
along a front moving southeastward across the region. RAP forecast
soundings late this evening show strong deep-layer shear and steep
mid-level lapse rates. This will support isolated severe storm
development with large hail.

After midnight, some model solutions produce scattered thunderstorms
across parts of central and northern Oklahoma. If this occurs, then
a threat for supercell with large to very large hail, and wind
damage will be possible. A tornado threat could also develop.

Further southwest into parts of the low Rolling Plains of
north-central and southwest Texas, isolated thunderstorm development
will be possible this evening. Convective coverage is expected to
remain very limited due to a lack of large-scale ascent. If a cell
can initiate and grow upscale, then large hail will be possible. A
few severe wind gusts could also occur.

...Central Plains...
The latest surface analysis has a 986 mb low in northwest Kansas. A
cold front is moving through western Kansas, with a warm front
moving through northeast Kansas. A dryline extends southward from
the low across west-central Kansas. Isolated convective initiation
may take place near the dryline this evening across south-central
and southeastern Kansas. A north-to-south axis of moderate
instability is analyzed across central Kansas, where MLCAPE is
estimated in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. In addition, regional
WSR-88D VWPs have 0-6 km shear in the 60 to 70 knot range, with a
curved hodograph in the lowest 3 km AGL. Also, forecast soundings in
central Kansas have 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment could support isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.
A tornado threat will also be possible, especially as the storms
move eastward into a strengthening low-level jet later tonight. A
strong tornado could occur. Severe storms will also be possible
further north into parts of southeast Nebraska. These storms should
be capable of isolated large hail and severe wind gusts.

Later tonight, convection is expected to develop along and ahead of
a cold front moving southeastward across central Kansas. Model
forecasts suggest that a line will remain organized through late in
the period, possibly affecting eastern Kansas. Severe wind gusts
will be possible near and just ahead of this convective line.

...North-central California...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough
moving eastward across northern California. Ahead of this feature,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from the northern
Sierras southward into the Sacramento Valley. The airmass along this
corridor is weakly unstable, according to the RAP. Forecast
soundings in the Sacramento Valley have SBCAPE of 250 to 500 J/kg,
0-6 km shear of 40 to 50 knots,and 700-500 mb lapse rates near 7
C/km. This environment may support a marginal severe threat this
evening. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 04/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020128
SWODY1
SPC AC 020126

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0826 PM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF S CNTRL TX AND PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL PA...AND THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SRN OK...NRN TX...

CORRECTED HAIL GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Increasing strong to severe thunderstorm development is still
expected tonight across parts of the south central Great Plains,
mainly across the Texas Panhandle through the Red River vicinity,
accompanied, primarily, by the potential for large hail and damaging
wind gusts.

...01Z Update...
Model output remains varied concerning the potential evolution of
convection across the south central Great Plains tonight.
Convection that initiated late this afternoon near and southeast of
the Raton Mesa, appears to be evolving into small cluster, with a
developing surface cold pool currently advancing southeastward
across the western Texas Panhandle. In advance of this activity, an increasingly moist boundary layer with eastward extent into the Red
River vicinity is contributing to sizable potential instability,
beneath the northern periphery of notably dry air in the
lower/mid-troposphere, including a deep elevated mixed layer based
around 850 mb.

As the evolving convective cluster acquires increasingly unstable
updraft inflow, there appears potential for substantive further
intensification across the southeastern Texas Panhandle into
portions of southwestern Oklahoma and northwest Texas by around
05-06Z. Around that time, strengthening large-scale ascent within
the unstable downstream environment, aided by strengthening lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, may support increasing
thunderstorm development near and north of the Red River. Strong
deep-layer shear and at least modestly enlarging low-level
hodographs near the Red River may support supercells with potential
to produce large hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado.

At the same time, the east-southeastward advancing surface cold pool
may maintain strength and perhaps strengthen further while
supporting increasing upscale growth, including merging with the
preceding warm advection driven convection. It appears possible
that an increasingly organized cluster of storms could evolve with
sustained strong to severe wind gusts across much of southern
Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas by daybreak. The NAM, however,
still appears to remain a significant outlier concerning the
potential strength of the convective perturbation, with other output
more modest.

Otherwise, isolated to widely scattered ongoing strong to severe
thunderstorm development across parts of central Texas into areas
southeast of Del Rio probably will continue to wane this evening as
inhibition increases with boundary layer cooling.

..Kerr.. 05/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100118
SWODY1
SPC AC 100116

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 PM CDT Fri May 09 2025

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND THE MOBILE BAY VICINITY...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE ERROR

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe risk may develop tonight over portions of the
northern Gulf Coast.

...Discussion...
Water-vapor imagery this evening shows a split-flow regime over
North America. A mid-level trough over the Mid-Atlantic states will
move northeast to southern New England, while a slow-moving
mid-level low meanders over the north Gulf Coast through early
Saturday morning. Model guidance indicates weak cyclogenesis over
the northern Gulf of America tonight with this low moving to near
Mobile Bay by daybreak Saturday. A strengthening of low-level
warm-air advection and associated flow may aid supporting an
environment where a few stronger storms develop tonight from the
shelf waters inland into the region centered on the FL Panhandle.
Forecast soundings show weakly buoyant profiles with some
enlargement to the hodograph. A transient supercell capable of a
brief tornado/wind damage near the coast would be the primary
threat.

Elsewhere, convective overturning across parts of the Southeast and
the onset of nocturnal cooling will continue to lead to weakening
thunderstorm activity this evening.

..Smith.. 05/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 181723
SWODY1
SPC AC 181722

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Sun May 18 2025

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHWEST
AND CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN MISSISSIPPI...CENTRAL ALABAMA...AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINE IN MAINE

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of all severe hazards are expected this
afternoon and evening across portions of the central and southern
Plains. Several strong to intense tornadoes are possible.

...KS/OK...
A large upper trough continues to deepen over the western US, with a
band of 60-70 knot southwesterly mid-level flow extending across NM
into western KS/OK. The surface dryline will mix eastward into
western KS and along the TX/OK border by mid-afternoon, with the air
mass to the east becoming extremely unstable with dewpoints in the
upper 60s and MLCAPE values over 4000 J/kg. Strong
southerly/southeasterly low-level winds throughout the warm sector
will provide a conditionally favorable environment for intense
supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds, and
tornadoes. However, morning model guidance continues to show
diverse solutions regarding coverage of convection later today.

The area of greatest confidence in storm development and intensity
will be near the warm front/dryline triple point over south-central
KS. Discrete supercell development appears likely here, with
forecast soundings showing favorable hodograph structures to promote
a risk of strong tornadoes. The MDT risk has been extending
slightly eastward along the warm front. Farther south along the
dryline in western OK, confidence in initiation is lower. However,
any storm that can form will be capable of all hazards.

...Western North TX...
Another region of higher confidence in convective initiation will be
over western north TX along the dryline. Hot surface temperatures
in vicinity of a dryline bulge will aid in storm development. These
storms will likely expand eastward and into southwest OK through the
evening, with very large hail and damaging winds possible.

...MS/AL/GA...
A narrow corridor of SLGT risk has been added for this afternoon
from eastern MS across central AL and southern GA. Multiple MCSs
are ongoing in this corridor, with associated outflow boundaries
present. These boundaries may be the focus for further development
this afternoon, with sufficient CAPE/shear combinations to pose a
risk of damaging winds in the strongest cells.

..Hart.. 05/18/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070115
SWODY1
SPC AC 070113

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0813 PM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...THE NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE...SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...NORTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...

CORRECTED FOR TYPOS/WORDING

...SUMMARY...
A few supercells and one or two organizing clusters of thunderstorms
are expected to impact a corridor extending from southeastern
Colorado into central Oklahoma this evening into the overnight
hours, posing a risk for large hail and strong, potentially damaging
wind gusts. A cluster of supercells may also continue to impact
parts of the Texas South Plains through mid to late evening.

...01Z Update...
Within weak surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies, a
seasonably moist and heated boundary-layer has become characterized
by moderate to large CAPE, in the presence of modestly steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Beneath seasonably strong west-southwesterly mid/upper flow to the north of flat/low-amplitude subtropical ridging, this has contributed to an environment
supportive of scattered supercell development, which remains ongoing
as of 01Z.

A clustering of supercells currently centered near/east of Lubbock
appears aided by forcing for ascent associated with a short wave
perturbation of subtropical eastern Pacific origins, which is
forecast to progress into and through the Red River Valley
overnight. Near the southern fringe of the stronger westerlies,
westerly deep-layer ambient mean flow appears on the order of 20-25
kt, supporting rather modest storm motions. Although modest
strengthening of a nocturnal southerly low-level jet could
potentially maintain and enhance convective development, aided by
forcing for ascent associated with low-level level warm advection,
this will have to overcome increasing inhibition associated with
slow boundary layer cooling beneath warm air in lower/mid-levels.
So, the extent to which convection may persist and perhaps grow
upscale and pose a continuing severe risk into the Red River Valley
overnight remains unclear.

There remains a more notable signal within model output that forcing
for ascent downstream of mid-level troughing digging across and
southeast of the Front Range will contribute to a substantive
increase in thunderstorm development, within a corridor extending
from southeastern Colorado across and east- southeast of central
Oklahoma by late tonight. This is forecast to become focused within
low-level warm advection, on the northern periphery of warmer air
around 700 mb (roughly depicting the northern edge of the stronger
capping elevated mixed-layer air). It appears that this development
may be preceded by a couple of long-lived southeastward propagating
supercells, which are already ongoing and may be sustained by
continuing low-level updraft inflow of moist boundary-layer air
characterized by CAPE up to 3000 J/kg.

This instability extends along/south of a remnant low-level
baroclinic zone across the Texas Panhandle through central Oklahoma.
As the upscale growing convection acquires increasing inflow of this
air mass, it may undergo increasing organization and potential to
produce swaths of potentially damaging wind gusts.

..Kerr.. 06/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 210118
SWODY1
SPC AC 210116

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Valid 210100Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA...

CORRECTED AREA MENTIONED IN FIRST SENTENCE OF THIRD PARAGRAPH OF
DISCUSSION

...SUMMARY...
A significant swath of severe winds is expected this evening and
tonight from the northern Plains eastward into the upper Mississippi
Valley.

...Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley...
Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough moving
through the northern High Plains. Near the trough, a line of strong
to severe thunderstorms is ongoing across western North Dakota and
far northwestern South Dakota. As these storms move eastward across
the northern Plains this evening, a 60 to 70 knot mid-level jet will
move northeastward through the Dakotas. Lift associated the left
exit region of the jet, combined with a strongly unstable airmass
over the eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota will be favorable for
vigorous convective development. In response, the ongoing storms are
expected to grow upscale into a fast-moving severe MCS. The MCS is
forecast to track eastward across far northern South Dakota, North
Dakota and north-central Minnesota this evening.

At the surface, a 991 mb low will move northeastward across northern
South Dakota this evening. A tongue of very moist air with surface
dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will move northward into
southeastern North Dakota and central Minnesota this evening. Within
this moist airmass, strong instability is analyzed by the RAP with
MLCAPE in the 4000 to 5000 J/kg range. The ongoing line of severe
storms will move into this strong instability, and gradually
intensify over the next couple of hours. RAP forecast soundings
along the expected track of the MCS in southeastern North Dakota
this evening have moderate to strong deep-layer shear, long and
looped hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates. This should be
favorable for supercells with large hail, wind damage and tornadoes.
A strong tornado may occur. Supercell development will be most
likely among cells that remain semi-discrete. However, a line is
expected to become more organized, which will make severe wind gusts
likely along its leading edge. Gusts above 80 mph will be possible
ahead of the more intense parts of the line. A Derecho may develop
across parts of the northern Plains and upper Mississippi Valley
this evening into tonight.

As the MCS moves into south-central North Dakota over the next few
hours, some short-term model forecasts develop discrete cells
further to the east near the moist axis in the vicinity of the
ND-SD-MN triple point. These storms are forecast to quickly expand
in coverage and move across northwest and north-central Minnesota,
ahead of the approaching MCS. These storms will likely be
supercellular, and be associated with large to very large hail, wind
damage and possible tornadoes.

A consolidation of the two areas of convection will likely take
place late this evening, with the severe MCS continuing to track
eastward across north-central Minnesota. A wind-damage swath is
expected as far east as northern Wisconsin and the western Upper
Peninsula of Michigan. Wind gusts of 85 to 105 mph will be possible
along parts of the MCS track.

...Southern Rockies/Central High Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows southwest flow over much of the
south-central U.S. A subtle shortwave trough appears to be located
in the southern Rockies, where convection has increased in coverage
over the last couple of hours. These storms will continue to move
northeastward into the High Plains this evening. Forecast soundings
from northeast New Mexico into northwest Kansas early this evening
have very steep low to mid-level lapse rates. This will likely
support a marginal threat for severe gusts, as the cells move into
the stronger instability over the High Plains.

..Broyles.. 06/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 211650
SWODY1
SPC AC 211649

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1149 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Valid 211630Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...

CORRECTED FOR SPELLING IN SUMMARY

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible tonight across New York and New England. Isolated severe
storms will also be possible across portions of the Great Lakes, the
northern High Plains and Middle Missouri Valley.

...Great Lakes...
Strong/intermittently severe thunderstorms continue across the
northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan this morning, associated with
the long-lived severe MCS that moved across the northern
Plains/upper Midwest Friday afternoon and night. Although the
immediate downstream environment is only slowly warming due to the
presence of mid/high-level clouds, some slow destabilization is
occurring. This will maintain at least some continued risk for a
strong/severe storm through early afternoon across northern Lower MI
and adjacent waters of Lake Huron.

Across the MI Upper Peninsula, a warm front is expected to sharpen
across this area, along with rising heights in the wake of the convectively-augmented vorticity maximum now moving through southern
Ontario. Heating of a very moist boundary layer will result in
strong to extreme instability (MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg),
however the presence of a pronounced cap should suppress storms
during the afternoon. As a modest low-level jet strengthens this
evening, isolated elevated severe storms will be possible on the
immediate cool side of the front, within an environment supportive
of organized storms including supercells. Large hail and damaging
winds will be possible.

...NY into Western New England...
Thunderstorms moving across Lake Huron/southwestern Ontario at 16z
will continue east, and most morning CAM guidance suggests storms
will remain west of western NY. Of greater concern will be the
potential for storms to move into northern NY/western New England
late tonight ahead of a southeast-moving cold front, where modest destabilization and strong deep-layer shear will support storm
organization. Morning hi-res guidance supports a loosely organized
linear structure, and perhaps supercells with an attendant risk for
strong winds and severe hail late tonight. The Level 2/Slight Risk
has been expanded east into northern VT based on this expectation.

...Eastern MT into Western ND...
Isolated thunderstorms have weakened over eastern MT this morning,
with additional isolated redevelopment possible this afternoon and
tonight as ascent associated with minor perturbations within
southwest mid-level flow moves across the area. Modest instability
and strong deep-layer shear will support updraft organization and a
risk for severe hail and/or damaging gusts.

...Central NE/SD/ND into the Upper Midwest...
Surface low currently over central SD is expected to move little
this afternoon, with low-level moisture advection throughout the
warm sector east of this low. Air mass recovery/modification
following the overnight MCS is expected, and this will contribute to
a sharpening warm-frontal zone. Strong to extreme buoyancy (i.e.
MLCAPE greater from 3000 to 5000 J/kg) is expected by this evening
along this warm front from the ND/SD border vicinity eastward
through central MN into northern WI. Some low-level convergence is
anticipated in this region, but height rises will occur within the
large-scale environment. Additionally, warm mid-level temperatures
(16 to 17 deg C at 700 mb) are expected, capping the airmass to deep
convection this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorm development will be
possible mainly this evening as a low-level jet strengthens, with a
risk for severe wind and isolated hail.

..Bunting.. 06/21/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 220106
SWODY1
SPC AC 220104

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0804 PM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Valid 220100Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...

CORRECTED FOR FLIPPED THUNDER LINE IN SOUTHEAST

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms associated with severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible tonight across New York and New England. Isolated severe
storms will also be possible across parts of the Great Lakes and the
central to northern Plains.

...Northeast/New York/Great Lakes...
Latest water vapor imagery has a belt of strong anticyclonic flow
located from the upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes and
Northeast. A ridge-riding mid-level shortwave trough is located over
Ontario. At the surface, a moist airmass is in place from New York
into western New England, where surface dewpoints are in the lower
to mid 60s F. The low-level moisture will contribute to continued destabilization across the region, in the form of elevated
instability, this evening into tonight. As the shortwave trough
moves southeastward toward the Northeast, low-level flow will
markedly strengthen. In response, convective coverage is expected to
increase, and a line of thunderstorms appears likely to develop late
this evening. This line is forecast to move southeastward across New
York and western New England from late evening into the overnight
period.

Overnight, RAP forecast soundings ahead of the line in northern New
York have a low-level temperature inversion, with MUCAPE in the 1500
to 2000 J/kg range. Effective shear is forecast to be around 40
knots. This should be favorable for a severe threat. Although much
of the line could be elevated, isolated large hail and severe gusts
will still be possible, mainly with the more intense component of
the line. The line is expected to move through the western New
England and the Hudson River Valley late tonight, approaching
southern New England toward 12Z.

...Central Plains...
Southwest mid-level flow is in place across much of the central
Plains early this evening. At the surface, a moist airmass is
located over much of the High Plains, with surface dewpoints mostly
in the 60s F. In response to low-level warm advection, isolated to
scattered thunderstorms will likely develop along the western edge
of this moist airmass. This convection is expected to move
northeastward across Nebraska and southeastern South Dakota this
evening. In addition to moderate instability, mid-level lapse rates
are very steep. This, combined with moderate deep-layer shear, will
likely support a marginal severe threat. Hail and isolated severe
gusts will be possible.

...Northern High Plains...
A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, will move
northeastward into the northern High Plains tonight. Ahead of the
trough, a post-frontal airmass is in place with the western edge of
a moist airmass located over the western Dakotas. As large-scale
ascent increases across the northern High Plains later tonight,
scattered thunderstorm development is expected. These storms will
move northeastward across eastern Montana and western North Dakota,
mainly after midnight. Weak to moderate instability, combined with
steep lapse rates and moderate deep-layer shear should support a
marginal severe threat. Hail and a few severe gusts will be
possible.

..Broyles.. 06/22/2025

$$

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