ACUS11 KWNS 071858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071857=20
NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-072100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1859
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2024

Areas affected...portions of the central High Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 071857Z - 072100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected early this
afternoon across the higher terrain of eastern WY and CO. A mix of
supercells and clusters may produce damaging winds and hail. A WW is
being considered.

DISCUSSION...As of 1845 UTC, regional visible and radar imagery
showed initial thunderstorm development was ongoing over southern
Laramie Range in eastern WY with additional storms developing over
parts of northern CO. Further development and maturation of
convection is expected over the next couple of hours as ascent from
a subtle shortwave trough overspreads the central Rockies. Weak
upslope flow and the approach of a cold front from the north will
continue to advect seasonable low-level moisture (upper 50s to low
60s F dewpoints) across the central High Plains. While currently
MLCINH is still robust, continued heating, the approach of the front
and upslope should gradually support destabilization with 1000-1500
J/kg of MLCAPE expected. 35-40 kt of deep-layer shear will support
storm organization with a mix of multi-cell clusters and supercells
possible. Steep low and mid-level lapse rates will support strong
downdrafts capable of damaging gusts, especially with any persistent
clusters. Hail (some could be as large as 2 in) will also be
possible, especially with any supercell structures.

The initial ongoing storms are, so far, closely tied to the terrain
where more persistent orographic ascent has removed most inhibition.
As the capping over the plains is slowly removed these initial
updrafts should move eastward across parts of northeast CO and
eastern WY into western NE. CAM guidance varies on the timing of
this transition, but observation trends suggest this could occur as
early as the next hour or two. While confidence in the exact timing
of the increasing severe risk is low, the potential for damaging
wind gusts and hail suggest a watch may be needed.

..Lyons/Mosier.. 08/07/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4ADz2_wg72OZQ5MgHDhKTNMVdCPCOcbWxgpDOY6dfAOgYFLNZO046hkHeNAa49NHSLS3m2ipC= 0PZpqfZxd7wEfdrCY4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

LAT...LON 39170390 39470450 40010487 40610516 42020551 42720500
42760479 42580250 42300186 41980135 41690110 41020064
40490060 39390142 39120244 39080300 39170390=20


=3D =3D =3D
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