ACUS11 KWNS 122053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122053=20
OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-122300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1887
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2024

Areas affected...Portions of northeast NM...southeast CO...and the
far western OK Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 122053Z - 122300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...An increase in thunderstorm coverage and intensity is
expected during the next few hours. The severe risk appears too
limited for a watch at this time.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms should gradually increase in coverage
across portions of southeastern CO and northeastern NM during the
next few hours, as ample diurnal heating continues to erode
convective inhibition across the area. Moist, east-southeasterly
low-level flow beneath strengthening westerly flow aloft, will yield weak/moderate surface-based instability (increasing with eastward
extent) and around 30-40 kt of effective shear (characterized by a
mostly straight hodograph). This will support the potential for a
couple organized eastward-spreading clusters and/or semi-discrete
supercell structures. Isolated large hail (generally up to 1.5
inches) and locally severe gusts (55-65 mph) will be possible with
the more robust activity. Overall, the severe risk appears too
limited for a watch at this time, though convective trends will be
monitored.

..Weinman/Mosier.. 08/12/2024

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8U_m7ss9yTkF2Pu-76YSuEo5GIJ_eDzUldRn-VdWdzhGjtWFcxuz_TDkosQOIQHlJ0tw3yZWd= iZkhUwDYSZan9iWI9M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 36010470 36310483 37250482 37850460 38260413 38320332
38040282 37440257 36760263 36170308 36000341 35880395
36010470=20


=3D =3D =3D
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