ACUS11 KWNS 221225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221224=20
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-221400-

Mesoscale Discussion 1400
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0724 AM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...Parts of eastern ND...northeast SD...western MN

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 221224Z - 221400Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms are possible this morning.

DISCUSSION...Elevated convection is ongoing this morning from
east-central ND into northeast SD. This convection is being aided by
a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moving quickly
northeastward toward northern MN. Midlevel lapse rates are quite
steep (as observed on the 12Z MPX sounding), and recent objective
mesoanalyses depict a corridor of very strong MUCAPE (3000-4000
J/kg) from eastern ND into northwest MN, near and north of a surface
boundary that will move north as a warm front with time today.
Ongoing convection could intensify as it moves into this corridor.
Deep-layer shear is also stronger with northern extent, and could
help to increase storm organization with time this morning.

Large hail and localized severe gusts may accompany these storms as
they move northeastward. The large buoyancy and steep lapse rates
will support a conditional threat of very large hail if any elevated
supercells can become established. Coverage of the severe threat
this morning is uncertain, making the need for short-term watch
issuance unclear. A more extensive severe threat is still expected
across parts of this region later today.

..Dean/Mosier.. 06/22/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-mQlSK_3SpvumGrp1Ptb_hdRZ7lSXLSsL26mlrJk3ThBAZdd0T3sWZJKFHHJ4c939m1BjQ2ii= sKm1LtQTiQI96tf1cs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON 46779395 45379572 45339673 45939755 46239784 46419803
46959839 47089952 47849989 49019784 49329664 49419487
49259418 48849326 48439284 46779395=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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