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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1403

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 22 18:50:52 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 221850
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221850=20
    NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-222045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1403
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0150 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

    Areas affected...the NE Panhandle and far southeast WY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 221850Z - 222045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Large hail and strong gusts will be possible as a few
    supercells likely develop across the Nebraska Panhandle vicinity.
    Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is likely.

    DISCUSSION...High-based cumulus development is underway along and
    west of a quasi-stationary front arcing across far southeast WY. CYS
    VWP data has sampled substantial speed shear above the lowest km
    amid a nearly unidirectional southwesterly profile. This will
    support potential for multiple supercells this afternoon within the
    downstream post-frontal regime across the NE Panhandle. Most of this
    area should remain along the western periphery of weak surface-based
    buoyancy where surface dew points can hold in the mid to upper 50s
    to the north of the west/east-oriented instability axis along the
    I-80 corridor. Continued negative low-level theta-e advection from
    the north-northwest will be a limiting factor to the northern extent
    of the severe threat and should result in a confined corridor of
    realized severe. With robust mid-level UH signals across the 12Z
    HREF and recent HRRR/RRFS guidance, the expectation is that a few
    supercells will be capable of large hail and locally strong gusts.

    ..Grams/Bunting.. 06/22/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6-0l9K3U6oz0g_n3XJ5beapfxxQDE6ks9HHM4C_yJvf7sCTAMzrlJUVyO5ff_373MO24XQ8Bk= vBGEymgH31u4a7XbX8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...

    LAT...LON 43140192 42670146 42070173 41430263 41070414 41370496
    41730499 42550429 43170274 43140192=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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