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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1404

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 22 19:34:48 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 221934
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 221934=20
    MNZ000-NDZ000-222130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1404
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0234 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

    Areas affected...northwest MN and eastern ND

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 221934Z - 222130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The tornado threat with a few supercells will increase
    during the late afternoon to early evening as surface-based storms
    develop across the Red River Valley through northwest Minnesota. A
    tornado watch issuance is expected.

    DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery is occurring across the Red River
    Valley and northwest Minnesota in the wake of earlier elevated
    thunderstorms. While another round of elevated thunderstorms has
    formed well west into the post-frontal airmass across central ND,
    this lobe of large-scale ascent will overspread the downstream
    surface front and trough in the next couple hours. 19Z mesoanalysis
    suggests that MLCIN has weakened. Surface-based thunderstorm
    development by 21-22Z is likely.=20

    Weak easterly components to the low-level flow between the surface
    front and trough will support favorable hodograph curvature as flow
    veers to the south and south-southwest aloft. In conjunction with
    optimal temperature-dew point spreads, a corridor of supercell
    tornado potential is anticipated. Otherwise, large hail and isolated
    severe gusts will be possible as storms likely become confined
    closer to the international border this evening.

    ..Grams/Bunting.. 06/22/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5vq89OOu4vlSSt2mMf-wYwwEcBqcMn8poFNMMIQOpVOfkKhc48Huf-HdR2KigHqbe0rrf-d5A= v0nsHFcRGIhaeuUK9k$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

    LAT...LON 49329393 48619355 46459670 46289757 46309795 46599838
    47139817 48869639 49359504 49329393=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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