ACUS11 KWNS 221959
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221959=20
SDZ000-NEZ000-222200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1406
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

Areas affected...southwest to northeast NE and southeast SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 221959Z - 222200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Severe wind/hail threats will increase as a corridor of
scattered thunderstorms form ahead of a dryline, along a slow-moving
to quasi-stationary front. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is
expected.

DISCUSSION...Cumulus development is underway along the slow-moving
to quasi-stationary front that arcs across southeast SD into
southwest NE, ahead of a dryline that has mixed across northwest KS
and far southwest NE. Initial storm development should occur ahead
of the dryline/front intersection into central NE where MLCIN is
minimized, with additional storms rippling north-northeast along the
front by early evening. Nearly unidirectional south-southwesterlies
and uniform speeds with height will curtail overall effective bulk
shear. But this should help enhance growth into multicell clusters
favorable for producing sporadic severe gusts. Severe hail potential
may largely be confined to initial storm formation.

..Grams/Bunting.. 06/22/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9v2cY4f-QeGkKIkLXIAfjt16KfZRaj9tUvMwP-Xp3mMr0HlDs1EM2IRUbs5KLfPsMbyXzIRRd= H-U--GOyQ2y03xXwUY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON 40600129 41830003 42769901 43349863 43919807 43919706
43259707 42589770 41169901 40340062 40600129=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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