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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1407

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Jun 22 22:10:41 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 222210
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 222210=20
    KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-230015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1407
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0510 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

    Areas affected...Southeast Colorado to northwest Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 222210Z - 230015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Sporadic severe gusts appear possible later this evening
    as thunderstorms develop over the next couple of hours. Thunderstorm
    coverage remains uncertain, but watch issuance is possible if a
    scattered severe threat becomes apparent.

    DISCUSSION...GOES visible imagery continues to show slowly building
    cumulus along a weakly confluent dryline from southwest Nebraska
    into western Kansas and far southeast Colorado. Surface dewpoint
    depressions of 40-45 F and gusts of 35-40 mph on the western fringe
    of the warm sector suggest very deeply mixed boundary layers with
    minimal inhibition. Despite nebulous ascent and somewhat marginal
    buoyancy, a few thunderstorms will likely emerge from within this
    regime over the next couple of hours prior to the onset of nocturnal
    cooling. Moderate flow within the lowest 1-2 km, coupled with
    downdraft accelerations through a deep/dry boundary layer, will
    promote strong to severe downburst wind gusts with any deep
    convection that can emerge. The expectation is that convective
    coverage will likely remain too limited to warrant watch issuance,
    but trends will continue to be monitored for a more scattered severe
    threat.

    ..Moore/Smith.. 06/22/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_qQHBRr25KekOjn1W7cxZoxuEf0RXfOaCuK_uoFzlALmOyhDDfndcVcFX9dMvbdO-bTBS17hY= iqeLb-1ffNXfZwnQHM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

    LAT...LON 39360192 39910156 40090125 40100079 40010057 39780044
    39590039 39340048 37350160 37120179 37050204 37030232
    37060268 37130292 37250304 37450310 39360192=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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