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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1411

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 23 00:55:42 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 230055
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 230055=20
    SDZ000-NEZ000-230300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1411
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0755 PM CDT Sun Jun 22 2025

    Areas affected...Northern Nebraska...Southeast South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452...453...

    Valid 230055Z - 230300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 452, 453
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Severe storms continue to affect parts of northern NE and
    southeast SD. Large hail and damaging winds will remain a concern
    for a few more hours.

    DISCUSSION...A large cluster of severe thunderstorms, including
    multiple supercell structures, is affecting areas from Blaine to
    Holt Counties NE. The lead storm just east of O'Neill has remain
    anchored to the cold front and is the most intense. It remains
    capable of very large hail (up to baseball size) and damaging winds.
    The storms farther southwest appear to be slightly elevated and
    slightly lessened intensity.=20=20

    Another area of thunderstorms is developing farther north, near
    Winner SD. These storms are strongly elevated, but in a region of
    sufficient CAPE and vertical shear for some concern for hail in the
    strongest cells.

    Finally, a long-lived supercell storm has tracked across the NE
    Panhandle and is now in southern Sheridan County. This cell is=20
    moving into a progressively more elevated unstable layer, but has
    developed sufficient organization that it could persist for 2-3 more
    hours and pose a continued risk of hail across north-central NE.

    ..Hart.. 06/23/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-EmLi4QUjrU9RsxycBYQ98tYSjzTkSJLTQxFQcitoTD3hawB83ZjXxzd6Vx0LSDTz2A3L7hOa= X-7CxUTpmMC92uXs3Q$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

    LAT...LON 42770120 43689924 43829766 43359712 42569789 41409987
    41450075 41750169 42170214 42770120=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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