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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1312

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 16 18:51:40 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 161850
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 161849=20
    IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-162045-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1312
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0149 PM CDT Mon Jun 16 2025

    Areas affected...southeast SD and northeast NE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 161849Z - 162045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and localized severe gust threat
    may persist through mid-afternoon. Greater coverage of storms, with
    increasing severe hail/wind threats, is anticipated in the late
    afternoon to early evening. Area is being monitored for a severe
    thunderstorm watch, with timing and spatial extent the primary
    near-term uncertainties.

    DISCUSSION...A few storms, likely rooted near 700 mb, have formed
    near the surface cold front. With appreciable MLCIN still present in
    the warm-moist sector ahead of this, convection may struggle to
    propagate off the boundary. Most CAM guidance has been too slow with
    this initial development, rendering uncertainty regarding the
    overall spatial extent of severe potential over the next couple
    hours. Surface dew points have largely mixed into the upper 50s to
    low 60s to the east-southeast of this activity, with richer
    boundary-layer dew points and CU development confined to central NE
    westward. Despite the uncertainty on storm coverage, low to
    mid-level wind profiles are sufficient for transient, high-based
    supercells.

    ..Grams/Hart.. 06/16/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4wZ-p_tizH-c-6NStYvFFGUO4BHq2Y9KIO2mHRB3yDWj5JY78n043u7IPsKowgJodsjlLZ2Os= N4yrvnuuOebk8hjkmM$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...

    LAT...LON 43819868 43989814 43949746 43819682 43609646 43019646
    42609659 42099699 41989717 41869806 42139872 42929908
    43269909 43819868=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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