ACUS11 KWNS 191645
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191644=20
NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-191815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1363
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1144 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...portions of the Northeast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 191644Z - 191815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe storms are expected this
afternoon with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows deepening towering
cumulus across central and eastern New York amid moderate
instability in an uncapped environment. As storms deepen, some organization/updraft rotation is expected given moderate shear (50
knots at 3km per ENX VWP). Damaging wind gusts and isolated large
hail will be the primary threat from this activity. Storm coverage
may be somewhat isolated early this afternoon as the upper-level
trough and surface front remain across the eastern Great
Lakes/southern Ontario. Additional storms may arrive this evening as
those features move east, but instability will likely be weaker by
this time, and the severe threat remains questionable by later this
evening.

..Bentley/Hart.. 06/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4dfsDM_FqKhDw2zor5oL8IlKEhxB5IcC8lTl_d8M0-5trG5wNqb5IlY9-MU7rUnPxDhxSOqEA= QWU9osSmv0KI5pXb-s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...
CTP...

LAT...LON 41727697 43137600 45007485 45087370 45077361 45037202
44287197 42447221 41197276 40967327 40887370 40797446
40827510 40927587 41117637 41727697=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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