ACUS11 KWNS 191722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191722=20
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-191915-

Mesoscale Discussion 1364
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic Region

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 191722Z - 191915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Convection will gradually intensify as they move off the
Blue Ridge this afternoon. Damaging winds are the primary hazard,
though isolated large hail and a brief tornado or two are also
possible. A watch is likely.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows convection gradually deepening
along the Blue Ridge in advance of an upper-level trough. Given the
upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints and clear skies ahead of this
activity, the boundary-layer will continue to destabilize through
the afternoon. 30-35 kts of effective shear will likely mean broken
line segments as well as a few supercells.

The primary hazard this afternoon will be damaging winds,
particularly with any line segments that develop. Isolated large
hail is possible, but weak winds at upper levels and poor mid-level
lapse rates (sample by morning soundings across the region) should
limit that threat. Modest enhancement to the 850 mb winds will
promote sufficient low-level shear for the threat of a brief tornado
or two.

..Wendt/Hart.. 06/19/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8arnslI8g0wMxp02kU7ULZIfMWWXUXYIEIrKJTiW8uE6B50wTUo2MMdXHc01j5I8jDZCYEbiE= iv10Cp0vaW8uIw2dk8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 37618051 38657993 40287794 40817698 40697497 40177473
37627670 36947781 36707996 37018057 37618051=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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