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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1371

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 19 20:41:24 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 192041
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192041=20
    NDZ000-MTZ000-192215-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1371
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0341 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

    Areas affected...eastern Montana and western North Dakota.

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 192041Z - 192215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...There is a conditional supercell threat across eastern
    Montana and western North Dakota with a threat for large hail and
    severe wind gusts.

    DISCUSSION...Strong heating across eastern Montana has resulted in a
    mostly uncapped airmass (according to SPC mesoanalysis) with 750 to
    1500 J/kg MLCAPE. It is unclear whether storms will form this
    afternoon, but deepening towering cumulus on visible satellite
    indicate one or two storms may form this afternoon or during the
    early evening hours, significantly earlier than indicated by CAM
    guidance. If storms form, strong 45-50 knot shear across the region
    should result in supercells with a threat for large hail. In
    addition, given the hot, deeply-mixed boundary layer, severe wind
    will also be a threat from this activity.=20

    Some weak support from a low-level jet across the northern Plains
    could maintain this threat during the evening, and perhaps through
    the overnight hours as it moves east across North Dakota.

    Satellite/radar trends will continue to be monitored, and if storm
    development appears imminent, a severe thunderstorm watch will be
    issued.

    ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/19/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9AQvEtPhOmtSqjlYexGvAiDqCBYuLZgShB46nmPE4p-ZzGCC9WjMfoOlYtbMelwrvU5GkmCRy= ocKe07SpXpbPkT_I44$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

    LAT...LON 47930537 47920320 47690224 46780253 46560322 46620429
    46810514 47020573 47200596 47610597 47820595 47930537=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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