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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1374

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Jun 19 23:00:18 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 192300
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 192259=20
    MEZ000-200100-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1374
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0559 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

    Areas affected...Western to central Maine

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 443...

    Valid 192259Z - 200100Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 443
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An intense line segment and a few developing supercells
    will continue to pose a severe hail/wind risk for the next 1-2 hours
    across western to central Maine.

    DISCUSSION...Recent GOES imagery shows intensifying updrafts within
    a convective band across northwest/western ME, as well as the
    development of a couple of supercells across west-central ME over
    the past hour. This is occurring as the band and weak mid-level
    ascent impinge on a buoyancy axis spanning from New England into
    northwestern ME. This corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE is fairly
    narrow based on visible imagery with stable billow clouds noted
    across central ME where temperatures remain in the low 70s. As such,
    the potential for severe hail/wind gusts will likely be most
    widespread over the next couple of hours before convection moves
    into the more stable air mass. However, well-established
    mesocyclones, such as the one embedded within the convective line,
    will continue to pose at least an isolated severe threat through 03
    UTC across the eastern extent of WW 443.

    ..Moore.. 06/19/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9xWBDwu2tHl1CPYW9cuvmtiIsGf3GH-XYQ7vG5CZ2uSVuOWl8VIKC5cMHaMrOhr_6dHLfg6Is= IUW7KaRdQ35DY-oH4I$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...

    LAT...LON 45147060 45657021 46237015 46416985 46466937 46376886
    46226859 45936848 45636845 45196867 44606964 44437009
    44407041 44577081 44797090 44997080 45147060=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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