ACUS11 KWNS 200110
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200109=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-200315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1377
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0809 PM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 200109Z - 200315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across
southeastern ND into northwestern MN this evening. Storm coverage
should increase later this evening. Hail and wind are possible.

DISCUSSION...Surface boundary is currently draped from central MN
into southeast ND. Modest 1km flow is impinging on this boundary and
an elongated corridor of low-level warm advection will hold across
this region much of tonight. Isolated severe thunderstorms are
currently noted across this region, but storm coverage should
increase late this evening as a weak short-wave trough tops the
ridge and digs southeast toward MN. In response, LLJ should increase
markedly by 06z across NE into eastern SD/southwestern MN and
convection should increase across this corridor. Unless ongoing
activity increases in areal coverage over the next hour or so, will
likely hold off on issuing a new severe thunderstorm watch until
stronger large-scale support affects this region.

..Darrow/Smith.. 06/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_4G0f0Jr4Y-u83jNOl4N1vmmW_vpsLTgWgvVkfNg3Lx8ZTCHNJ2LYXh4R-iGCGTWEFUo_HNQd= HnDZFGUPrg9WthhZaE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON 47679730 46739442 45819499 46249787 47679730=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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