ACUS11 KWNS 200545
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200544=20
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-200745-

Mesoscale Discussion 1380
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Areas affected...southeast MN into parts of WI and IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 200544Z - 200745Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered strong/isolated severe thunderstorms will
develop/persist into the early morning hours. Marginally severe hail
and strong wind gusts will be possible with these storms.

DISCUSSION...Convection is increasing within a warm advection regime
across portions of the MCD area as an 850 mb low-level jet noses
into IA/southern MN. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft, becoming
southerly in the low-levels, is support effective shear magnitudes
greater than 40 kt. This should allow for some organized storm
structures as convection develops southeast across a modestly
unstable airmass. Cool temperatures aloft (around -10 to -12 C per
00z regional RAOBs) and steep midlevel lapse rates combined with
favorable shear will support isolated marginally severe hail. Strong
low-level inhibition is present given time of day and the cooling
boundary layer, but any organized bowing segments could produce
strong gusts as well. Trends will be monitored for possible watch
issuance.

..Leitman/Mosier.. 06/20/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6JqI5VjGwiUzsP3bgZYChJJVKyDfpXYCvZroLjFsX7l8-tNnRRH2d5kz4TGVBoIHeqU0AzYqd= OIdP66vPcm5yj5bgQg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...

LAT...LON 45529440 45849270 45779062 45218938 44768859 44428840
44048859 43538934 42919066 42539233 42509321 42659406
42949429 44079494 44789494 45529440=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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