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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1383

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Jun 20 20:24:54 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 202024
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 202024=20
    NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-202230-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1383
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0324 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

    Areas affected...far eastern Montana and northwest South Dakota into
    central North Dakota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 202024Z - 202230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to initiate over southeast Montana by
    22Z, eventually organizing into a cluster or MCS as it travels into
    ND. Significant damaging gusts as well as large hail are forecast.

    DISCUSSION...Strong heating continues over the region as low
    pressure deepens from southeast MT into western SD. Moist low-level trajectories extend from the eastern Dakotas westward (north of the
    low) and into far eastern MT, where visible imagery indicates
    increase CU fields.

    Meanwhile, an impressive surge of heated air is spreading into the
    area from the southwest, with many sites seeing a large jump in
    temperatures and wind speeds. While some warming aloft is indicated
    as well, the continued westward influx of moisture and surface
    heating will result in an uncapped air mass over the High Plains,
    with initiation likely by late afternoon.

    Indications are that convection over southeast MT will grow over the
    next few hours, with cells producing hail and gusty winds. With
    time, this activity should develop into a severe MCS, with
    increasing threat of significant wind gusts as well as continued
    threat of hail. As such, a watch will likely be needed soon.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 06/20/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-ecIPG6lce0Y27cRfWTRKP7Gp8n8-An2-5Qyc_SNVz9lSIL3V9OemQ2bzq8rhf3yqaeQrUjVs= -gcunnEgPaVTpBRrEY$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...BYZ...

    LAT...LON 45240386 45330514 45750548 46240538 46520474 46800280
    47770036 47779970 47499932 47059911 46359928 45880017
    45430155 45260277 45240386=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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