ACUS11 KWNS 210304
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210304=20
NDZ000-210430-

Mesoscale Discussion 1389
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1004 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Areas affected...portions of central North Dakota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 448...

Valid 210304Z - 210430Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 448 continues.

SUMMARY...A derecho should continue over the next few hours. 75-100
mph winds remain a concern, and a few mesovortex-generated tornadoes
are possible.

DISCUSSION...A mature, intense bow echo is rapidly propagating
eastward across central ND at around 70 kts, and is traversing a
baroclinic boundary, where over 4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 60-80 kts of
effective bulk shear is present. Furthermore, these shear vectors
are oriented normal to the bow echo. Several measured 75-100 mph
gusts have occurred, and given the preceding ambient conditions and
baroclinic boundary, this bow echo will likely continue producing significant-severe gusts over the next few hours. A derecho is in
progress, so 60+ mph winds should also be occurring on a more
widespread basis, as suggested by many surface observations. The
best chance for scattered significant-severe gusts will be in close
proximity to mesovortices, specifically where mesovortex winds align
with the rear-inflow jet. A few tornadoes also cannot be ruled out
with the mesovortices.

..Squitieri.. 06/21/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7rBO3DDu9k-8BLeo3yHhOtaN9JyBIaaGtwn4kdOXHZoEtILHuYDA-Lhl3pTXK4WWsf39lVPuY= sDSNQhd5dUYCKe0o8M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 46389845 46149901 46040034 46120087 46290087 46610063
46870055 47180077 47610056 47780014 47659877 47309829
46879827 46389845=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...95-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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