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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1391

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 21 03:47:59 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 210347
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210347=20
    WIZ000-MNZ000-210545-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1391
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1047 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

    Areas affected...portions of northern into northeast Minnesota and
    extreme northwestern Wisconsin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

    Valid 210347Z - 210545Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...The severe threat will increase tonight as a bow-echo
    merges with supercells and progresses eastward as an organized MCS.
    Severe gusts will be the main threat, though some hail and perhaps a
    tornado are also possible. A WW issuance will eventually be needed.

    DISCUSSION...An intense bow-echo is rapidly propagating
    east-northeast across central ND, and will merge with tornadic
    supercells across eastern ND over the next couple hours. Afterwards,
    an MCS should continue to track eastward over northern MN through
    tonight. Though boundary-layer stabilization may gradually limit the
    severe nature of the ongoing storms to some degree, current thinking
    is that at an appreciable severe wind threat will remain.
    Furthermore, any semi-discrete convection that can initiate at the
    terminus of the low-level jet, or just ahead of an MCS, may also
    pose a large hail threat. Should a bow echo persist, QLCS tornadoes
    are also not entirely out of the question, though the tornado
    potential is more uncertain given nocturnal stabilization. Either
    way, the impending severe threat should warrant the eventual
    issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

    ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/21/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-3NY0u1Wpf9khN9zwNKQKLq5XpSp55jL0ZUSaZ2oYTFItxP4N2m-Q15UAVikwN5V9jrzqeGUh= Audz5AF6SK6XIb3cv8$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

    LAT...LON 48439562 48359355 47919185 47569117 47159103 46699116
    46429160 46409232 46369312 46379389 46429474 46749526
    47239550 48439562=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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