ACUS11 KWNS 210439
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 210439=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-210545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1392
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1139 PM CDT Fri Jun 20 2025

Areas affected...portions of eastern North Dakota into northwestern
Minnesota

Concerning...Tornado Watch 449...

Valid 210439Z - 210545Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 449 continues.

SUMMARY...A derecho may continue for a few more hours, with severe
winds remaining widespread, and 75-100 mph gusts still possible in
the short term. Several QLCS tornadoes may also occur.

DISCUSSION...A derecho-producing bow-echo MCS continues to rapidly
propagate eastward, accompanied by a widespread/high-end severe wind
swath. Given the perseverance of a strong rear-inflow jet and large,
line-end mesovortex, prolonged severe winds remain possible well
into the trailing precipitation region of the parent bow-echo MCS,
behind the leading line. To the east, tornadic supercells persist,
with recent evidence of strong tornadoes. Over the next couple of
hours, the bow-echo will merge with these supercells, and the
supercells will persist for some time before gradually morphing into pronounced, deep mesovortices embedded in the line. Through this
entire phase, severe winds and line-embedded tornadoes will remain a
concern. 75-100 mph gusts and EF2+ tornadoes will be most likely in
the early merging process. A few hours from now, mainly 65-75 mph
winds will be likely, though a few embedded 75+ mph gusts and/or
QLCS tornadoes will remain possible.

..Squitieri.. 06/21/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!46eRsKubb0Nf2fhgIFbkglUBK5aXoYFfuj7SdB7Llii50gJEEB1sXdigFAFioZA7XTdDpCXY1= -9oddiSMaaxYqoeW0I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 47630038 47939887 48039749 48019638 47779587 47149543
46629543 46239589 46039680 46009783 46119833 46319880
46599944 46930009 47630038=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...95-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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