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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1393

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Jun 21 05:53:59 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 210553
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 210553=20
    MNZ000-210730-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1393
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1253 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

    Areas affected...portions of northern MN

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449...

    Valid 210553Z - 210730Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 449
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential increasing across northern MN.

    DISCUSSION...A new, intense bow is developing across northwest MN as
    a series of supercells have merged and strong rear-inflow (noted in
    the KMVX VWP data) from the west spreads across the region in tandem
    with a 45+ kt low-level jet. This bowing segment, currently over
    Beltrami and Hubbard Counties is expected to develop east along the
    warm front draped west to east across northern MN. While low-level
    inhibition is quite strong due to nocturnal stabilization of the
    near-surface, moderate to strong instability, steep lapse rates, and
    a very favorable shear parameter space will likely maintain this
    organized bowing structure for at least a couple of hours. An
    attendant risk for 75+ mph gusts will accompany this bowing segment,
    with so potential from a tornado or two near the apex. Additional
    warm advection storms developing ahead of this bow also will pose a
    risk for large hail into northeast MN.

    ..Leitman.. 06/21/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!70j5hlEP_OOXyWLiB35a-q4l-badRYqXwErSiKPunbK7ECtVXf3eRxMSgvG1QXVOMGCCdwi63= 2KwGe4PZLYxr5PA4XI$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

    LAT...LON 47759533 47939456 47959338 47869263 47729206 47489182
    47179198 46939251 46889342 46909459 47039517 47119544
    47759533=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...85-100 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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