ACUS11 KWNS 211354
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211354=20
MIZ000-211530-

Mesoscale Discussion 1396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0854 AM CDT Sat Jun 21 2025

Areas affected...northern Lower MI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 211354Z - 211530Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally strong gusts will remain
possible into midday with elevated thunderstorms spreading across
the northern Lower Michigan vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Within the corridor of strong lower-level warm theta-e
advection, a recent uptick in convective intensity has occurred
across northern Lake MI and adjacent portions of northern
Lower/southern Upper MI. The 12Z APX sounding sampled moderate
elevated buoyancy with weakness in the mid-level hodograph. But the
upstream GRB sounding sampled substantially stronger mid-level
westerlies, which have recently overspread northern Lower MI per the
APX VWP data. This will support embedded supercell structures
despite convective mode likely to remain dominated by
clusters/short-line segments. While the mode should temper overall
hail magnitudes to an extent, around golf-ball size hail is
possible. Relatively cooler surface temperatures ahead of this
activity and the elevated character should also subdue the overall
wind damage threat.

..Grams/Bunting.. 06/21/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9sw1lk_eKMk-KsV2up0VUqfyqeuHA3qWasW5M6Gqz6lHO0-hhzvIo3j2gmbBqDf_Z-8GdunKo= crHpWo2htbsaFW21eY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...APX...

LAT...LON 45758385 45338326 44988325 44858361 44948467 45008541
45048620 45238673 45708612 45938551 45998489 45758385=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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