ACUS11 KWNS 231935
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231934=20
IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-232200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1417
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

Areas affected...portions of central Kansas into far southeast
Nebraska and southwestern Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 231934Z - 232200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Some increase in severe potential may occur if more robust thunderstorm development can take place along the cold front. Strong
to potentially severe wind gusts would be the main hazard.
Convective trends are being monitored for the need of a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

DISCUSSION...A line of thunderstorms has developed across eastern NE
in a post-cold-frontal regime. Within the last hour, convection has
tried to deepen along the KS/NE border, closer to the cold front,
and where greater buoyancy resides. Deep-layer shear is modest at
best (e.g. 30 kts), and is lagging the cold front. While vertical
wind shear is limited, 7-8 C/km boundary-layer lapse rates atop 70+
F surface dewpoints is contributing to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE in a weakly
capped environment. While storms should be mainly pulse-cellular or multicellular, any cold-pool mergers that occur with the more
intense storms may support strong to severe gusts. Convective trends
are being monitored for further increases in coverage or intensity
that would warrant a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance.

..Squitieri/Thompson.. 06/23/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9pBizmLsspDLotDsiJDh7zslkd0fV-5Ip48_kmEynSJx_ICcKxcZyozHVHDxkborSSCK-AFD_= qaRz7XAwUhX4MIheGM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON 39449947 41119694 41759606 42459456 42649365 42579272
42389244 41829271 40969342 40439394 39979481 38929680
38549805 38579874 38649923 38729943 39449947=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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