1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1423

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Jun 23 23:24:48 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 232324
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 232323=20
    IAZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-240130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1423
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0623 PM CDT Mon Jun 23 2025

    Areas affected...Far southeast Nebraska into far northwest Missouri
    and southern Iowa

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 456...

    Valid 232323Z - 240130Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 456
    continues.

    SUMMARY...A couple of corridors of higher severe wind potential may
    be emerging across far northwest Missouri and central Iowa ahead of
    two organizing clusters.

    DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, convection continues to erupt along
    and ahead of a convectively augmented cold front from far southeast
    NE into far northwest MO and southern/central IA. Most of this
    activity has remained fairly transient, but has a history of
    producing small swaths of severe winds (including a 62 mph gust at
    KDSM). To the south and east of the Des Moines, IA area, convection
    has begun to consolidate along the cold front with echo tops
    occasionally reaching up to 50 kft at times. Further intensification
    appears likely over the next hour or so as this band approaches a
    regional MLCAPE maximum near 3500 J/kg. Additional cold pool
    amalgamation coupled with intensifying convection should promote a
    relative increase in severe wind potential.=20

    Further southwest across the NE/IA/MO tri-state area, a secondary
    band of convection has begun to slowly organize along a consolidated
    outflow boundary based on regional velocity imagery. Additionally,
    GOES IR imagery show steady cloud top cooling indicative of
    intensification, and cold pool temperature deficits are approaching
    20 F, suggesting a deep cold pool is beginning to develop. These
    trends suggest that a strong to severe line may emerge over the next
    hour or so downstream along the MO/IA border.

    ..Moore.. 06/23/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5bz8aH_S2RvEZMEpsERq6Jim0a39jpTEnAZhi3rxxdHYdyo3thdKHa1dLZbqA-M30WChBIDkh= 3hMqWSt54FEs68Kq-Y$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

    LAT...LON 40189628 40629555 42259246 42419198 42399143 42309107
    42089100 41729109 41419129 41129198 40079419 39929459
    39889498 39829606 39879632 40039643 40189628=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)