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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1428

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 24 19:06:32 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 241905
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241904=20
    NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-242030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1428
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0204 PM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

    Areas affected...Portions of northern New York into northern Vermont
    and far northern New Hampshire

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 241904Z - 242030Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A couple of damaging gusts may occur across portions of
    northern New England this afternoon. Given the expected limited
    coverage of severe gusts, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not
    currently anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Continued strong diurnal heating is supporting a
    general agitation of a cumulus field over northern New England, with
    recent thunderstorm initiation noted across extreme southeast
    Ontario. Here, surface temperatures are around 90 F amid near 70 F
    surface dewpoints, supporting over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in spots. These
    storms are initiating along the periphery of the upper-level ridge,
    where modest mid-level flow is supporting 25-30 kts of effective
    bulk shear. As such, the strongest storms may become multicells
    capable of producing a couple of strong to perhaps damaging wind
    gusts. The severe threat should be quite limited, so a WW issuance
    is not currently expected.

    ..Squitieri/Hart.. 06/24/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9U0FF0moaku4QuxEE8e7TV5jxv-bZ3R5JmxgByosm2fNOhQNIN2RTBuDWtVB_NQlinnHwQIFj= fSSKhqLcEhyW6L9QR4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...GYX...BTV...ALY...BUF...

    LAT...LON 44337584 44577572 44827531 44987497 45077434 45047299
    45067177 45037158 44997152 44657131 43957173 43727255
    43767402 43917492 44147551 44337584=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


    =3D =3D =3D
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