ACUS11 KWNS 271749
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271749
IAZ000-MOZ000-271945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1763
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Southern Iowa into far northern Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 271749Z - 271945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated hail threat may materialize through
mid-afternoon across southern Iowa into far northern Missouri. In
general, this activity is expected to remain sufficiently weak to
negate the need for a watch.

DISCUSSION...Convection has been gradually deepening per MRMS VIL
and echo top imagery over the past hour across southwest to
south-central IA. This activity appears to be largely driven by
modest ascent along a weak frontal zone draped across the Plains,
and is maturing within an environment featuring ample buoyancy
(MUCAPE of around 3000 J/kg) and sufficient deep-layer wind shear
for organized convection based on the KDMX VWP (which sampled a 0-6
km BWD of just under 25 knots). Given this environment, loosely
organized convection appears possible and may pose a threat for
sporadic large hail - most likely 1.25 inch or less. The primary
modulating factor to overall storm longevity and intensity is
increasing inhibition with southward extent and a lack of stronger
synoptic forcing for ascent. Consequently, storms will most likely
begin to weaken as they track south/southeast (this behavior has
already been observed with a few leading cells) and will mainly pose
an isolated/transient severe threat through the afternoon.

..Moore/Hart.. 07/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8Bhf6EsPiZ-o6C9WmHcOvvdPpOR5YUBvAs-U-2jOc5uA12_6PV4WCM2e9K4yXJLYOiRZi9-V_Y2TRfYqHFu_O8PMV6s$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON 41929527 41749319 41639261 41419211 40829147 40539143
40309158 40259208 40319453 40469490 40749514 41659562
41859552 41929527

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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