1. Forum
  2. FidoNet
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1764

    From COD Weather Processor @1:2320/107 to All on Mon Jul 27 18:09:24 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 271809
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 271808
    INZ000-ILZ000-271945-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1764
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0108 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

    Areas affected...portions of far eastern IL into IN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

    Valid 271808Z - 271945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...An intense bow echo is developing across northeast IL
    south of Chicago. Potential is increasing for a swath of
    severe/damaging gusts to develop southeast across parts of far
    eastern IL into northern/central IN through early evening. A new
    watch is likely downstream from WW 520.

    DISCUSSION...A supercell over northeast IL is transitioning toward
    an intense bow. This is occurring within a corridor of
    strong/extreme instability (3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and 45+ kt
    effective shear magnitudes. The downstream airmass into central IN
    will support maintenance of this developing bow as convection
    develops southeast at around 40-45 kt. KLOT radar indicates 80 kt
    winds just a few hundred feet above ground level. Given the
    favorable thermodynamic and kinematic environment downstream, a
    swath of damaging winds to 80 mph will be possible across western
    portions of WW 519 over the next hour. Convection is expected to
    continue into central IN this afternoon into early evening. In
    addition to intense/damaging wind gusts, isolated large hail and a
    tornado or two also are possible. A downstream watch will likely be
    needed soon.

    ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/27/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5VVaxLx6cHxYLkjHbV647hWz-h5xIj6oPNp3IUo0TqoY1E-jwqL3n2woFxTGvp7pVk7vc0vQ8AjhBTweNVXprqdNZQg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

    LAT...LON 41848732 41548667 41078593 40338542 39828524 39458532
    39148563 38918604 38768645 38738688 38828748 39208783
    39888796 40658810 41218798 41518797 41738785 41848732

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
    --- scorpsmtpd
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)