ACUS11 KWNS 272317
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272316
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-280115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1773
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 PM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 272316Z - 280115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A threat for locally damaging wind may continue through
dusk.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered strong storms are ongoing early this
evening from parts of MD northward to near/north of NYC. Despite
relatively moderate surface temperatures, seasonably cool conditions
aloft associated with a mid/upper trough over the region are
supporting moderate buoyancy, with MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg across
the region. Deep-layer flow/shear is weak in the NYC region, but a
tendency for southward cell movement is resulting in a modest
enhancement to storm-relative inflow and SRH, which may allow a
threat for downburst-related wind damage to persist through at least
the early evening. Deep-layer shear is somewhat stronger farther
south toward the Delmarva region, though still too weak to support
more than transient storm organization. Localized wind damage will
remain possible through dusk with storms in this region as well.

..Dean/Smith.. 07/27/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_TKF_WY74OgEV7Mvx5sI230NeoZN0xU8hPKSDy_wn975FcqnYKW55s1zXP3CILUO3pxHGBqGSTIBwoxHHGWiTpBqd40$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 38887693 40747549 41917467 41947374 41657317 41007328
40117380 39417426 38987480 38557530 38477598 38557638
38887693

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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