ACUS11 KWNS 281609
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281608
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-281815-

Mesoscale Discussion 1780
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1108 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...southern Pennsylvania...central/southern New Jersey...Delaware...Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 281608Z - 281815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential to increase through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Shower and thunderstorm activity is ongoing within the
warm air advection zone across portions of the Mid-Atlantic into New
England. Mid-level cloud cover is in place across much of the
region, which is limiting heating and destabilization. Nonetheless,
a few areas of more broken cloud cover has allowed for filtered
heating , with temperatures in the upper 70s to 80s across portions
of New Jersey and Delaware. Strengthening mid-level flow is
contributing to strong deep layer shear around 30-45 kts across the
region. As forcing for ascent increases and the cold front to west
shifts eastward, thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage
and intensity near and ahead of the cold front. Primary risks will
be damaging wind but a few transient supercells may pose potential
for a tornado.

..Thornton/Hart.. 07/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!91btuUJ6YPMBksOWYCXjMZqPiJa6ASQZ1PBSi0KX-mvNYsQWUP3F2VMZi_CQzIXJPmK7JPbKLXFLYpHg7Q-wjp58Hf8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...

LAT...LON 39767422 39367450 39107493 38997521 38937583 39027634
39057651 39447824 39617907 39777994 40527976 41117877
41317705 41267618 41067547 40867507 40617467 40427443
40257426 39767422

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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