FOUS30 KWBC 110851
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
451 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Day 1 Valid 12Z Sat Jul 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Jul 12 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS
ARIZONA AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...

...OK into the OH and TN valleys...
An active convective regime is anticipated ahead of a
southeastward moving shortwave trough axis extending from MO to OH.
At 12z this morning, an initial round of convection will be
ongoing from southern IL into portions of KY and TN. Model
guidance supports a transition toward a primarily forward
propagating convective mode this morning, which should place the
overall flash flood risk on a declining trend, though localized
upwind propagation may keep an isolated threat going.

By this afternoon, the primary MCV/shortwave will shift over IL
and IN, interacting with a southward moving frontal boundary to
trigger scattered redevelopment across portions of IL, IN and WV.
Within this zone, PW values near or just under 2" will overlap with
CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. While widespread convective organization
is not anticipated, slow cell motions and localized mergers near
the frontal zone will support heavy rainfall rates capable of
producing localized pockets of 2-3" of rain. This is supported by
the 00z HREF and REFS, which both show FFG exceedance
probabilities of 15-40%.

A more organized, and potentially higher end, flash flood threat
is expected to evolve later this afternoon into tonight across
portions of KY and TN. Convection should develop to the south-
southeast of the main shortwave/MCV, likely focusing along remnant
outflow boundaries and instability gradients left behind by the
morning activity. Global deterministic and AI models favor a heavy
rainfall axis focused primarily from KY into northeast TN,
whereas high res models (including the RRFS/REFS) suggest the core
threat may track further south into TN. Given the strong westerly
low level moisture transport south of the MCV, the environment
will be favorable for backbuilding and training convective clusters
tonight. This environment, combined with PWs hovering around 2",
suggests that many HREF members may be underdoing the
afternoon/nocturnal threat. Do expect to see a swath of heavy
rainfall materialize somewhere across the KY/TN corridor, where an
axis of locally higher end flash flood impacts is possible. A
higher end Slight risk is maintained, with a MDT risk upgrade not
out of the question if we gain spatial model convergence and more
confidence on exact convective mode.

Further west, isolated to scattered flash flooding is also expected
across portions of central OK into AR. Low level flow will become
convergent on the southwestern flank of the broader convective
regime. Slow cell motions near a boundary will pose a threat over
OK, while enhanced northerly flow on the western periphery of the
MCV/shortwave will converge with the broad south-southwesterly
inflow to promote some backbuilding/training threat over parts AR.

...Mid-Atlantic...
A localized flash flood threat is forecast across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic. While low level flow will be northerly, one or two
low level convergence axes are projected to setup across the
region, potentially acting as a focus for convection. Despite the
northerly flow, ample moisture and instability will remain in
place. Convective cells will generally track from north to south,
but localized repeating cells will be possible along the trough
axis. The strongest signal for localized 3" totals with the HREF
resides along the coastal plain from NJ southward into southeast
VA where convergence is enhanced. Because FFG values are generally
higher here compared to inland locations, think the overall flash
flood risk should stay isolated, though localized urban and low
lying flood impacts are expected.

...AZ and NM...
The persistent terrain driven pattern continues across the
Southwest, with convection developing over the higher elevations
before propagating southwestward into a pooling instability axis
over the lower deserts of southern AZ. Instability and moisture
profiles should be a bit higher today relative to the past few
days, leading to a corresponding increase in the overall flash
flood risk. Both the 00z HREF and REFS depict greater convective
coverage and higher localized rainfall totals. While fast
southwestward storm propagation and cell speeds may act as a
limiting factor, the moisture/instability footprint should be
sufficient to promote some cell mergers and localized 1-2"/hr
rainfall, justifying the maintenance of the Slight risk.

A Marginal risk has been added to portions of eastern NM. This area
received locally heavy rain yesterday, and the model QPF signal is
a bit stronger today within an environment characterized by
slightly higher moisture and instability. Convection should remain
isolated to scattered, with the primary flash flood threat focused
over recent burn scars, particularly across the Sacramento Mountains.

...TX...
A Marginal risk was added to portions of the TX Hill Country, where
PWs are forecast to climb above 2". Isolated to scattered
convection is expected within a broad southerly low level flow
regime. While most cells will remain transient and produce only
brief downpours, any cells that establish mesoscale organization
could briefly train or backbuild into the low level inflow.
Guidance suggests a weak MCV currently south of the Rio Grande
that may track northward towards the region later today, which
could provide an additional focus for ascent. The risk area aligns
closely with the HREF and REFS 1" EAS probabilities of 10-20%
(signaling organization potential), and 3" neighborhood
probabilities exceeding 40%. Global deterministic and AI suites
also show a distinct convective focus over this corridor.

Chenard


Day 2 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Jul 13 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM PORTIONS OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE INTO THE CAROLINAS..

...Southeast Quarter of the Country...
A Slight risk has been introduced stretching from KY and TN
eastward into southern VA and the Carolinas. A well defined
shortwave/low over the KY/TN vicinity will interact with a slow
moving backdoor front to focus organized convection. High res
guidance, including the RRFS, FV3 and 3km NAM, indicates a
concentrated axis of convection capable of producing localized
totals exceeding 3". While the global GFS and ECMWF are less
pronounced with their QPF swaths the GEM regional and UKMET are
more in line with the high res guidance. The AIFS and AIGFS also
depict a corridor of enhanced QPF that generally matches the Slight
risk placement. Beneath the closed low over KY and TN, convection
may be less organized, but slow moving. Given PWs near 2" and the
possibility of saturated soils from day 1 rainfall, a flash flood
risk should continue. Across the central and eastern Carolinas PWs
over 2" combined with low level southerly moisture transport and
backdoor frontal convergence should create an environment for high
rainfall rate driven flash flood potential.

Surrounding the Slight risk, a broad Marginal encompasses eastern
NM, TX and much of the Southeast. A southward advancing cold front,
the aforementioned mid level shortwave/low, and upper jet support
will provide the necessary synoptic forcing for scattered
convection. PWs over 2" and CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg where daytime
heating is maximized, will support heavy rainfall rates. Some
mesoscale uncertainty exists with the track and strength of the
shortwave and frontal positions. An embedded Slight risk or two
may be needed on future updates as confidence increases. Increasing
low level westerly flow along the central Gulf Coast provides a
signature for backbuilding and training, but model divergence on
the exact axis remains. Given the higher regional FFG, did not
want to go with an overly large Slight risk at this time.

...Southwest...
Monsoonal moisture and instability will expand northwestward on
Sunday, necessitating a broader Marginal risk across AZ. While an
embedded Slight risk may eventually be needed, lingering questions
regarding storm coverage and organization keep the risk at
Marginal for now. Current indications suggest that while robust
convection will initiate over the terrain, it will propagate
westward quickly, potentially limiting the threat to isolate
instances of flash flooding.

Chenard
$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

FOUS30 KWBC 120841
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
441 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Day 1 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Jul 13 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM PORTIONS OF
KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE INTO THE CAROLINAS..

...Southeast Quarter of the Country...
The Slight risk remains in place from portions of KY/TN into
southern VA and the Carolinas. The mid level shortwave feature has
evolved into a deeper closed low, with slow moving convection
expected in the vicinity of that low across portions of KY and TN.
While widespread convective organization is not expected, the slow
storm motions combined with PW values between 1.75" and 2" will
support locally heavy rainfall rates. FFG is lowered across this
region due to antecedent rainfall, making isolated to scattered
exceedance likely today.

Further east from VA into the Carolinas, there is greater
uncertainty regarding convective evolution within a messy mesoscale environment. Large scale forcing ahead of the mid level trough will
interact with a slow moving backdoor front to trigger scattered
convection. Stable air is filtering into southwest VA and central
NC, while easterly flow off the Atlantic is pulling more
instability into eastern VA/NC. Stronger instability exists over
SC south of the front. So overall a messy setup and tough to pin
down where stronger convection may focus long enough for flash flooding.

The primary convective focus will probably be from far southern NC
into SC where the instability is maximized near and south of the
front. A secondary local max could materialize from portions of eastern/southeast VA into eastern NC where easterly flow enhances
convergence. While instability should largely wane tonight
persistent easterly upslope flow into the central and southern
Appalachians overlapping with at least some weak instability could
spark low topped convective development overnight somewhere across
southwest VA or central/western NC.

Overall the broad environmental setup within the Slight risk
remains conducive to heavy rainfall given PWs over 2" and multiple
low level convergence axes. While exact mesoscale boundaries
remain to be pinned down, isolated flash flooding is likely, and a
corridor or two of more concentrate impacts could emerge.

Surrounding the Slight risk, a broad Marginal encompasses eastern
NM, TX and much of the Southeast. A southward advancing cold front,
the aforementioned mid level shortwave/low, and upper jet support
will provide the necessary synoptic forcing for scattered
convection. PWs over 2" and CAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg where daytime
heating is maximized, will support heavy rainfall rates. While
conditions are close to Slight risk thresholds across this
corridor, regional FFG values are higher, and the latest HREF/REFS
EAS probabilities do not highlight a well defined axis of higher
convective concentration. Pockets of over 3" of rain are likely
within this Marginal risk area, but overall coverage is expected
to stay just below Slight risk thresholds.

Consideration was given to a Slight risk upgrade for portions of
north TX today, where a shortwave dropping south into the region
should help focus convection. Localized flash flooding is likely
here, particularly as an urban threat. However due to generally
high FFG and spatial discrepancies with the current model
guidance, we will hold at Marginal.

...Southwest...
Monsoonal moisture and instability will expand northwestward on
Sunday, necessitating a broader Marginal risk across AZ. While an
embedded Slight risk may eventually be needed, lingering questions
regarding storm coverage and organization keep the risk at
Marginal for now. Current indications suggest that while robust
convection will initiate over the terrain, it will propagate
westward quickly, potentially limiting the threat to isolate
instances of flash flooding.

Chenard


Day 2 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Jul 14 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...Texas and Central Gulf Coast...
The Slight risk has been expanded deeper into TX with this update.
Embedded shortwave energy is forecast to migrate westward
underneath a sprawling upper level ridge centered over the Northern
Plains. In the low levels we will see increasing southerly flow
and moisture transport. However, with northerly flow prevailing
aloft, cloud layer mean winds will become weak. Corfidi vectors
will also be oriented north to south, opposite the lower cloud
layer flow...which supports some backbuilding and training threat.
PW values are forecast to exceed 2" over much of central and
eastern TX, with values potentially topping 2.25" over east TX.
Some instances of flash flooding appear likely in this setup.

A favorable synoptic and mesoscale setup for training and
backbuilding is forecast to align along the central Gulf Coast.
Enhanced west to northwesterly low level flow south of the
persistent shortwave/low over the TN/GA vicinity will converge with west-southwesterly inflow off the Gulf. This configuration is
conducive for upwind propagation and some training convection.
Based on latest model guidance, this threat may remain confined
pretty close to the coast. A very moist airmass with PWs around
2.25" will support heavy rainfall rates.

...Southeast and Southern Mid-Atlantic...
A broad Marginal risk remains from TN into the Southeast and
southern Mid-Atlantic. Similar to day 1, a lingering shortwave and
closed low will continue to interact with a a backdoor front. Model
guidance show some spread regarding the exact positioning of these
features and where the primary axis of instability will reside. An
embedded Slight risk upgrade may eventually be needed as these
mesoscale details clarify. At a minimum, localized flash flooding
will occur, but the potential exists for a more concentrated flash
flood threat to materialize. North GA into SC currently appear most
at risk, but will see how todays convection evolves and what the
new high res model show.

...Southwest...
A Marginal risk is maintained from southern NM into AZ, southeast
CA and southern NV. Deep monsoonal moisture will continue to push
northwestward with isolated to scattered convection expected to
result in at least a localized flash food threat.

Chenard
$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

FOUS30 KWBC 180834
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
434 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Day 1 Valid 12Z Sat Jul 18 2026 - 12Z Sun Jul 19 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, WEST TEXAS, AND THE NORTHEAST...

...Western Texas to the Four Corners/Great Basin...
Overall, the forecast remains much the same, with mostly minor
spatial adjustments required based on the latest hi-res ensemble guidance.

One of the bigger adjustments was a northward extension
of the Slight Risk across western Texas into the southern
Panhandle. This northern expansion was supported by a slow-moving
upper level shear axis combined with low-level southerly flow,
fueling notable moisture advection into that region. Both the HREF
and REFS guidance have trended more bullish, showing localized
potential for rainfall amounts exceeding 3 inches. These totals
will be capable of producing rapid runoff and localized flash
flooding, especially where soil conditions are more sensitive from
recent rainfall.

Farther west, the Slight Risk remains largely unchanged across
portions of New Mexico, Arizona, southern Utah, and southwestern
Colorado. This remains supported by high-moisture anomalies and
indication from the HREF and REFS for rainfall rates likely to
reach at least 0.5 in/hr in the stronger cells. The Mogollon Rim
looks to remain a focus storm initiation and for some of the higher
storm totals, with both the HREF and REFS showing high
probabilities for accumulations over 2 inches in that area. Recent
heavy rains across this area will likely make it more susceptible
to additional flash flooding.

...Midwest to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast...
A progressive cold front dropping southeastward is expected to
interact with an anomalously moist airmass pooling ahead it. While
the primary Slight Risk remains focused across parts of the
northern Mid Atlantic to southern New England, the broad western
shield of the Marginal Risk was expanded farther west across the
Ohio Valley and into northern Illinois. Within this area, a smaller
Slight Risk area was added over portions western Pennsylvania
where the latest HREF and REFS are indicating localized amounts of
2-3 inches are likely.

For the Slight Risk area over the northern Mid Atlantic and
Northeast, guidance shows two rounds of storms impacting portions
of eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey eastward to southern New
England. A leading round of storms, well in advance of the front,
is expected to impact the region this afternoon, followed by a second
round accompanying the front itself during the overnight. Many of
the hi-res members suggest the heavier rainfall and potential flash
flooding threat will accompany the initial round, with the loss of
daytime heating and more stable air limiting the threat with the
second. With at least the first round, highly-efficient warm rain
processes and localized cell training may yield quick, short-
duration totals capable of producing isolated to scattered runoff
concerns, particularly in low-lying or urbanized areas. The Slight
Risk largely reflects the higher HREF probabilities for
accumulations of 3 inches or more.

...Florida Panhandle into Southeast Alabama and Southwest Georgia...
Deep moisture spreading north ahead of a slow-moving mid-to-upper
level low will pool along a surface trough extending out of the
eastern Gulf. This moisture (PWs increasing to around 2 inches)
will fuel slow-moving storms developing by the late afternoon that
will be capable of producing heavy rates, which along with their
slow movement, may produce heavy amounts and isolated flash
flooding.

Pereira


Day 2 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 19 2026 - 12Z Mon Jul 20 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FROM WEST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN UTAH...

...Southwestern U.S....
The overall synoptic configuration remains largely unchanged from
the previous period, with a persistent monsoon pattern locked in
place -- keeping scattered to widespread convection in the forecast
from West Texas into the Great Basin and southern Rockies. Given
that PW anomalies remain notably high at 2-3 std dev above normal,
and soil conditions moist from prior rainfall, confidence was
sufficient to introduce a Slight Risk that extends from West Texas northeastward across southern New Mexico, central and northern
Arizona, into southern Utah.

An upper-level high centered over northern Utah and Colorado will
support steady easterly flow across the southern tier, effectively
tapping into and beginning to pull mid-level energy that has been
centered over West Texas along this deeper moisture axis. The
highest areal average precipitation amounts are expected to center
along the higher terrain, where slow-moving storms are expected to
develop with afternoon heating, before propagating off of the
terrain along convective outflows. Given sensitive, moist soil
conditions from successive days of widespread storms, much of this
area remains vulnerable to rapid runoff. Complex terrain, slot
canyons, and recent wildfire burn scars will further accentuate the
threat for flash flooding across parts of the region.

...Mid Mississippi Valley east to the Carolinas and south to the
Eastern Gulf Coast...
A more expansive Marginal Risk has been drawn for this period,
reflecting deep moisture atmospheric profiles and an increasing
potential for localized heavy rainfall amounts producing isolated
runoff concerns. This risk is centered along a cold front dropping
into North Carolina and the Tennessee Valley, while is begins to
slow over the lower Ohio and mid Mississippi valleys. Diurnal
heating and prefrontal convergence will tap into this moisture
pool, generating clusters of slow-moving efficient thunderstorms,
capable of producing 1-2 inch totals, with isolated higher amounts.
There remains a greater threat for more widespread heavier amounts
along the eastern extent of this area, centered over southeastern
Virginia and eastern North Carolina, where more defined upper
forcing will help accentuate the threat for amounts over 3 inches.

Additionally, the Marginal Risk has been extended southward down to
the Gulf Coast. This accounts for the deep tropical moisture
arriving ahead of the slow-moving disturbance lingering in the
eastern Gulf, as well as favorable low-level convergence focusing
along a slow-moving surface trough extending north from the Gulf.
Highly efficient warm-rain processes along these features will
maintain a threat for heavy, short-term duration totals and
isolated runoff concerns.

Pereira
$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

FOUS30 KWBC 190921
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
521 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Day 1 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 19 2026 - 12Z Mon Jul 20 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FROM WEST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN UTAH, AS WELL AS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION...

...Southwestern U.S....
Overall, the synoptic pattern remains much the same, with the
monsoon ridge remaining favorably aligned. PW anomalies of 2-3 std
dev above normal will remain across much of the highlighted area.
This moisture, along with sufficient instability, and areas of
enhanced ascent afforded by easterly-drifting mid-level energy.
will support another day of widespread convective activity. Slow-
storm motions along with likely cell-mergers will raise the threat
for locally heavy amounts and flash flooding concerns. Flash
flooding remains a distinct threat in slot canyons, dry washes,
burn scars, and low desert areas via mountain outflows. The Slight
Risk highlights the area where HREF and REFS guidance indicate the
threat for 1-2 inch amounts is greatest. The REFS, and to a lesser
extend the HREF, indicate that heavier totals of 3+ inches are
possible over portions of West Texas along the Mogollon Rim down
into southeastern Arizona.

...Lower Missouri Valley to Southeastern Virginia and Eastern North Carolina... A targeted Slight Risk remains centered over eastern North
Carolina and extends into southeastern Virginia. Convection will
develop ahead of a slow-moving cold front that will be dropping
into a very moist (PWs 2+ inches) and unstable (MUCAPE > 2000
J/kg) environment, while some modest right-entrance region upper
jet forcing will offer some enhanced ascent. Heavy totals appear
likely, with both the HREF and REFS showing high neighborhood
probabilities for amounts over 3 inches within the Slight Risk area.

Less organized activity is expected back along the front extending
across the southern Appalachians, Tennessee Valley, and parts of
the lower Ohio, mid Mississippi, and lower Missouri valleys. While
widespread heavy totals are not expected, the moisture-rich
environment (PWs 1.75-2 inches) is expected to support storms
capable of producing localized heavy amounts and isolated runoff concerns.

...Eastern Dakotas into the upper Mississippi Valley...
A shortwave moving off of the top of the western U.S. ridge will
interact with a frontal system advancing through the northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest. An amplifying west-southwesterly
low level jet will support increasing PWs (1.75-2 inches) and
instability east of a warm front. The overnight guidance differed
greatly on the details but continued to present some signal for
backbuilding and training storms, capable of producing locally
heavy rates within the area highlighted by the Marginal Risk.

...Eastern Gulf Coast into the Southeast...
An area of low pressure located over the northeastern Gulf is
gradually becoming better defined, with additional development
becoming more likely. The footprint for heavy amounts through early
Monday is expected to remain mostly offshore, although some
heavier amounts along the immediate Florida Gulf Coast cannot be
ruled out. Therefore, the Marginal Risk was maintained.

An axis of enhanced low level convergence and pooling moisture to
the north is still expected be a focus for diurnal storms capable
of producing heavy rates. Therefore, a Marginal Risk was maintained
from the central Gulf Coast northward into the Tennessee Valley.
HREF and REFS indicate localized totals exceeding 2 inches are
likely along this corridor.

Pereira


Day 2 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 20 2026 - 12Z Tue Jul 21 2026

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS, NEW MEXICO, AND ARIZONA...

...Southwest and Great Basin...
Mid-level energy moving west of the region, and dry air advection
from the south will begin to diminish the heavy rainfall and flash
flooding threat over West Texas. However farther west, the
monsoonal moisture plume will remain firmly in place, ensuring
another day of high-efficient rainfall production over portions of
the Southwest and Great Basin.

Models show the upper high originally centered over Utah and
Colorado beginning to slide southeast, allowing moisture and
energy to spread northwest into the Great Basin and along the
western slopes of the Sierra Nevada -- raising the potential for
increasing storm activity and isolated runoff concerns in those area.

The greater heavy rainfall and flash flooding threat will remain
focused from southwestern New Mexico and southeastern Arizona
northwestward along the Mogollon Rim into northwestern Arizona.
This is expected to be the focus for better synoptic forcing and
greater instability -- supporting intense short-duration rain rates
that will elevate the risk for flash flooding, especially in areas
of complex terrain, dry washes, and burn scars.

...Upper Great Lakes...
An amplifying upper trough supported by energy diving out of
Canada will advance from the upper Mississippi Valley to the upper
Great Lakes. Strong southwesterly to west-southwesterly low level
inflow will continue to sustain deep moisture ahead of the cold
front and across the advancing warm front. This moisture along with
strong forcing, produced in part by left-exit region upper jet
dynamics, will generate organized convection capable of producing
rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr. Fast storm motions should limit the
overall heavy accumulation and flash flooding threat. However,
localized short-term training could raise at least some isolated concerns.

...North Carolina and Southern Virginia...
Maintained a Marginal Risk across this area. Apart from the GFS and
REFS, the general model consensus indicates that activity will be
less organized. However, a lingering boundary and corresponding
pool of deep moisture (PWs 2+ inches) will support additional
storms capable of producing heavy downpours. Should the guidance
begin to trend more toward the GFS and REFS, a targeted upgrade
may required, especially if more models begin to show back-to-back
days of overlapping heavy amounts.

...Gulf Coast...
The models continue to show the footprint of the heaviest amounts
associated with the disturbance over the northern Gulf remaining
mostly offshore. Therefore maintained only a Marginal Risk along
the coast from West Florida to southeastern Louisiana. Moisture
pooling along an axis of enhanced low level convergence northwest
of the circulation may extend the threat for heavy rainfall further
inland into the far lower Mississippi Valley.

Pereira
$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

FOUS30 KWBC 200827
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 AM EDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Day 1 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 20 2026 - 12Z Tue Jul 21 2026

...THERE ARE SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AS WELL AS FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...Southwest...

Very few changes were needed with the inherited Slight Risk area
from far west Texas, southwestern New Mexico, and much of Arizona
with this update. Monsoonal moisture will stream north off the Gulf
of California and into the Four Corners region today. With peak
heating, afternoon thunderstorms are expected over much of the
Slight Risk area. Much of the area has seen afternoon thunderstorms
causing localized flash flooding in recent days, and the same
pattern continues today. The threat further east will be driven by
a subtle shortwave disturbance retrograding west along the Mexican
border. This will allow for greater longitudinal spread of storms
to include far west Texas. MUCAPE values will be between 1,000 and
2,000 J/kg across much of the region, as PWATs rise above 1.5
inches in some areas. Between the aforementioned disturbance and
local topography, expect widely scattered instances of flash
flooding where the storms today are most persistent.

...Eastern North Carolina...

A stalled out front along the VA/NC border at the start of the day
will retreat northward in the form of a warm front as deep tropical
moisture advects northeastward from the tropical depression in the
Gulf. The front will provide enough forcing across much of eastern
North Carolina to allow for a renewed round of widespread showers
and thunderstorms in the area. Soils remain generally dry over most
of the area, despite storms impacting some of eastern North
Carolina yesterday. Due to the well above normal amounts of
moisture for the storms to work with, as well as the front
providing some forcing, the Slight Risk was expanded west to
overlap some of the areas of North Carolina that are being impacted
by storms currently, generally just east of Charlotte. Otherwise,
the threat remains similar to yesterday, so few changes were needed
with this update.

...Gulf Coast...

The outermost northern and western periphery of Tropical Depression
Two continues to impact much of the Gulf Coast of Florida, through
the Panhandle, and over to southeastern Louisiana. The storms are
few and far between, but ample moisture associated with a
developing tropical cyclone is allowing for any storms to have the
potential to produce multiple inch per hour rates. Regardless, the
center remains far enough offshore, with drier air aloft working to significantly cut down on the overall coverage of storms.
Considering the dry soils and high FFGs typical of the immediate
Gulf Coast, even periods of heavy rain should only result in
isolated instances of flash flooding. Thus, the inherited Marginal
remains in place.

...Midwest...

The Marginal Risk across much of the Midwest and upper Great Lakes
also remains largely the same today. There remains considerable
uncertainty as to coverage of storms impacting the area today into
tonight. It appears the most likely areas to be impacted stretches
from the southeastern corner of Minnesota south through eastern
Iowa and into northeastern Missouri. However, even in this area,
dry soils and the height of the growing season should allow most of
the rain expected to water the crops in the region, with minimal
threat for flash flooding. Thus, few changes were needed with this update.

Wegman


Day 2 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 21 2026 - 12Z Wed Jul 22 2026

...THERE ARE SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA AND UTAH, AS WELL AS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC...

...Arizona into Utah...

Increasing monsoonal moisture, particularly into southern Arizona
will combine with an approaching upper level shortwave trough to
further increase convective converage across portions of the
Southwest on Tuesday as compared with previous days. The
introduction of a northwestward-moving shortwave trough will allow
the convective activity to wane over eastern New Mexico and west
Texas, and instead promote more activity into eastern Nevada, Utah,
and portions of Colorado and Wyoming. Numerous highly flash-flood
prone slot canyons, dry washes, and rocky soils will allow the many
storms that form over the region to cause scattered instances of
flash flooding. The Slight Risk area was expanded north to include
much of Utah and into eastern Nevada for this region. The greatest
convective coverage and most impactful flash flooding is expected
over portions of Arizona and the boot heel of New Mexico. A
higher-end Slight remains in effect along the Mogollon Rim, but has
been expanded to the Mexico border along the AZ/NM border with this update.

...Upper Ohio Valley through the Mid-Atlantic...

A strong cold front pushing south across the Midwest will run into
plentiful tropical moisture being drawn north from Tropical
Depression 2 in the Gulf. The front will act as a catalyst for
numerous segments of mostly fast moving thunderstorms across the
Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. With PWATs ahead of the
front over 2.25 inches in some instances, and in most areas above 2
inches, the storms will have plentiful juice to work with, allowing
for heavy rainfall to impact most areas from the central and
northern Appalachians to the urban I-95 corridor from Richmond up
through Boston. The fast moving nature of the storms should mean
most areas have severe concerns as higher priority than flash
flooding. However, it's likely that backbuilding and training
storms on the book ends of any segments could cause widely
scattered instances of flash flooding. Thus, the Slight Risk
inherited over much of the Mid-Atlantic remains in place with few changes.

...Gulf Coast...

Tropical Depression 2 is expected to gradually drift west, with the
center following near the Gulf Coast. All of the guidance suggests
that northerly shear and dry air entrainment will push any
meaningful associated heavy rainfall south of the center over the
Gulf, leaving very little rainfall to impact the immediate Gulf
Coast. Thus, despite being a tropical cyclone with local PWATs up
to 2.5 inches, the distinctive lack of rainfall for most land
areas, especially away from the immediate coast remains an unusual
feature with TD2. The Marginal Risk in place over most of the
northern Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west through
southeast Louisiana remains in place with few changes.

Wegman
$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

FOUS30 KWBC 210847
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
447 AM EDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Day 1 Valid 12Z Tue Jul 21 2026 - 12Z Wed Jul 22 2026

...THERE ARE SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN AS WELL AS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND INTO THE NORTHEAST...

...Southwest and Great Basin...

The combination of anomalous monsoonal moisture streaming northward
out of the tropical Pacific and a retrograding upper level
shortwave will create a very active day for thunderstorm activity
this afternoon across much of the Pacific Northwest. Moisture
amounts will be anywhere from 2-4 sigma above normal, with PWATs
above 1.5 inches in southern Arizona, and above 1 inch across much
of the rest of the Southwest. The upper level disturbance tracking
west out of New Mexico will force numerous thunderstorms to form
across Arizona. The storms will slowly track westward. Greater
concentrations of storms are expected along the Mogollon Rim where
topography will help allow the storms to congeal along the Rim. Due
to the above normal amounts of moisture, the storms will be capable
of heavy rainfall with the strongest cores possibly producing
rainfall rates to 2 inches per hour. Given the very favorable
hydrology of the Desert Southwest for flash flooding, given
generally very hydrophobic soils and bare rocks, the Slight Risk
remains in place across much of Arizona, with a higher-end Slight
stretching from the southeast corner of the state northwestward
along the Rim to the Grand Canyon. As usual, slot canyons, dry
washes, and other low-lying areas will be more susceptible to
impactful flash flooding downstream of the heaviest rains.

Further north across the Great Basin, the area will be on the
western periphery of the large ridge over Colorado and a nearly
stationary longwave trough off the coast of northern California. A
separate shortwave trough will track across Nevada and into Idaho
this afternoon. Given similarly anomalous amounts of atmospheric
moisture in place as well across this largely flash-flood prone
area from the Sierras east through Utah, clusters of storms will
form in this area associated with the upper level shortwave.

The inherited Slight was expanded west to include the Sierras,
where upslope will greatly contribute to afternoon and evening
thunderstorm activity there, while the steep slopes will support
fast-forming flash flooding downstream of any heavy rain producing thunderstorms. Elsewhere, few changes were needed, as many of the
areas in the Slight that will be impacted by storms again today
were impacted on previous days, worsening the flash flooding risk.

...Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the Northeast...

Much of the flooding risk across the eastern half of the country
today will be in association with a strong cold front at the
leading edge of a strong longwave trough over the Great Lakes
pushing south and east across the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys as
well as into the Northeast. Anomalous moisture originating in part
from T.S. Bertha in the Gulf will ride northeastward ahead of the
front, providing plentiful moisture for numerous thunderstorms to
form, some of which will produce multiple-inch-per-hour rainfall
rates. A few areas within the broader Slight Risk are likely to
see more rainfall. In central Kentucky and central Tennessee, a southwest-to-northeast oriented band of storms is expected to form
on the leading edge of the cold front, with mesoscale "slow-downs"
in the front's progression allowing for a second round of activity
possibly forming over these same areas where FFGs are depressed
from heavy rainfall in recent days.

The greatest rainfall totals are expected to be across portions of
southeastern Virginia, generally from the Richmond metro east
across the Bay and impacting the lower Maryland and Virginia
sections of the Delmarva. Here, a plume of greater moisture will
interact with the front which will be slowed by its passage across
the mountains. An early to mid afternoon round of storms with the
initial approach of the upper level trough and associated shortwave
energy will move across southern Virginia first. Much more numerous
storms will impact the area in the evening hours as the main front
approaches the area. Despite the loss of daytime heating, the front
is expected to stall over southern Virginia, which could very well
allow for a prolonged period of training storms to set up in the
aforementioned area, which will persist through the overnight. A
short-fused Moderate Risk cannot be ruled out should this evolution
play out as expected by several of the CAMs.

Finally, across the area form northern New Jersey northeast into
the Hudson Valley, morning thunderstorms caught along the Catskills
and Poconos associated with a warm front may start out the day with
a period of training thunderstorms as moisture and instability
levels increase south of the front. This will likely be the feature
that causes the most rainfall in the area. Once the fast-moving
cold front sweeps eastward across the area, resulting in a much
shorter period of widespread thunderstorm activity, its passage
will end the threat for heavy rain in this area for the night.

...Gulf Coast/Tropical Storm Bertha...

As has been the case for several days, the convective pattern with
Bertha in the guidance is little changed. Northeasterly shear will
continue to keep any persistent heavy rainfall well south of the
Gulf Coast for the next several days. Only small and isolated bands
of rain trying to wrap around the center will impact the coast.
The inherited Marginal Risk remains little changed from Louisiana
through the Florida Panhandle.

Wegman


Day 2 Valid 12Z Wed Jul 22 2026 - 12Z Thu Jul 23 2026

...THERE ARE SLIGHT RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF
THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS WELL AS FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA THROUGH THE
TIDEWATER OF VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA...

...Intermountain West...

Highly anomalous amounts of atmospheric moisture associated with
the monsoon over the Intermountain West will be activated by rapid
height falls as an upper level and highly negatively tilted trough
pushes east from off the coast of Washington and Oregon. Meanwhile,
separate upper level energy undercutting the ridge will also
provide additional forcing further east across eastern Idaho and
Wyoming. Once again, numerous thunderstorms will form in the
anomalous moisture and for many areas, will be tied to the local
topography. Few changes were needed with this update. The greatest
amounts of rain look to concentrate in western Wyoming, where any
storms south of Yellowstone could necessitate a higher-end Slight
for some of those areas, as well as for the Uintas of northern
Utah. With nearly all of the forcing further north, the Marginal
Risk into southern Arizona and southern New Mexico was trimmed
significantly with this update, as ridging quickly overtakes this
area and limits convective potential south/west of the Mogollon Rim
as a result.

...Carolinas, Southern Virginia, and Northern Georgia...

A strong cold front running into highly anomalous moisture being
siphoned from the circulation of Tropical Storm Bertha will
exacerbate the gradient of moisture along the frontal interface
through the day across the Carolinas and into southeastern
Virginia. This will work to keep any forward progress of the front
minimal. Storms will train along the front, especially across
northeastern North Carolina and into southeastern Virginia. This
area remains in a higher-end Slight Risk and with the stalled out
front remaining to guide the frequent development of additional
storms, a Moderate Risk upgrade in areas where the storms focused
in the Day 1 period remains a distinct possibility. Guidance has
been laser focused in this area and so forecast changes have been
minimal. Further south and west, however, guidance has become
increasingly optimistic on storms developing further west into the
southern Appalachians. As such, the Slight Risk was expanded west
to include this region from north of Atlanta through the western Carolinas.

...Tropical Storm Bertha/Gulf Coast...

Strengthening shear across the circulation will continue to keep
any organized convection and meaningful rainfall out over the open
waters of the Gulf. The immediate coastline could still see amounts
greater than an inch, but the rainfall footprint continues to shift
off the coast. In coordination with LIX/Slidell, LA forecast
office, the inherited Slight Risk for this region was downgraded
with this update, with the overall area of the surrounding Marginal
remaining little changed. What little rainfall does impact land
areas remains with the potential to be locally heavy, so
unfortunately no changes to the Marginal Risks can be made so long
as Bertha remains a tropical entity.

Wegman
$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

FOUS30 KWBC 220826
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
426 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Day 1 Valid 12Z Wed Jul 22 2026 - 12Z Thu Jul 23 2026

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR SOUTHEASTERN
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...Southeast...

A strong but painfully slow moving cold front draped across
Virginia today will continue to act as a train track along which
numerous showers and thunderstorms will move throughout the day and
into tonight. It's probable that many areas from western North
Carolina through Raleigh and into the Hampton Roads area of
southeast Virginia will see more time over the next 24 hours seeing
moderate to heavy rainfall than dry time. The heaviest and most
persistent rainfall will be into extreme northeastern North
Carolina and much of southeastern Virginia southeast of Richmond
today. The Hampton Roads metro appears to be the most at risk of
the metro areas expected to be impacted by heavy rains today. It's
likely areal averages in the Hampton Roads area will exceed 3
inches today through tonight. Given both the persistence of the
heavy rain and urban concerns, the inherited Moderate Risk area
will remain unchanged with this update, generally following the
state line east from I-95 to the mouth of the Chesapeake.

Elsewhere the Slight Risk area extending from northern Georgia to
the Delmarva was shrunk both on the north and south sides with this
update. The CAMs guidance are in good agreement on the corridor
where heavy rain and flash flooding will be, increasing the
confidence that a smaller latitudinal range will be covered by the
heavy rain. As such, the southeastern corner of NC and all but
northern SC were removed from the risk categories as the heaviest
rains will stay north of those areas for today. They'll get their
turn in the coming days. The length of the front will promote heavy
rain development towards the west, and as such the Slight was
expanded west into northeastern Alabama with this update, where the
combination of the front and topography will both support areas of
heavy rain and widely scattered instances of flash flooding.

...Intermountain West...

The Slight Risk area covering an expansive area of the
Intermountain West from southwestern Montana south through
northwestern New Mexico was largely unchanged with this update.
However, in coordination with ABQ/Albuquerque, NM forecast office,
the Slight Risk area was expanded south along the AZ/NM state line
with this update. Plentiful burn scars, relatively little amounts
of rain it's taken in some areas to cause flash flooding, and many
areas not seeing recent flooding at all are all contributing
factors to the Slight Risk upgrade. Meanwhile further north, the
heaviest rainfall totals will be tied to the topography in many
areas from the Bitterroots through Yellowstone, much of Utah and
western Colorado. With sufficient upper level forcing helping the
storms to form and cause flash flooding, it's probable in many
instances that any storms that start along the topography will move
off the mountains towards the northeast, so lower elevation valleys
in between also remain in the Slight Risk for flooding.

...Gulf Coast/Tropical Storm Bertha...

T.S. Bertha will continue to struggle from strong northeasterly
shear pulling nearly all of the significant associated rainfall
south over the open waters of the Gulf. With little rain expected
along the Gulf Coast, the inherited Marginal remains little
changed. The Marginal mostly covers the fact that any significant
tropical cyclone carries inordinate amounts of atmospheric
moisture, even when being sheared. That moisture can easily support
heavy rainfall, even if isolated, so the Marginal threat remains.

Wegman


Day 2 Valid 12Z Thu Jul 23 2026 - 12Z Fri Jul 24 2026

...THERE'S A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...

...Southeast...

A strong and very slow moving cold front draped across portions of
the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday makes only very slow progress through
the day Thursday across far southern Virginia and northwestern
North Carolina. A second day of intense rainfall in the form of
seemingly endless trains of storms will impact much of the
Carolinas on Thursday. The good news is the southward progress of
the front on the order of about 50 miles or so will spare most of
Virginia much heavy rainfall for yet another day. However, this
means the heavy rain simply impacts areas further south across much
of North Carolina and northern South Carolina. Unfortunately there
looks to be some overlap in the heavy rainfall footprints from
Wednesday into Thursday, particularly in northeastern North
Carolina, likely extending from Norfolk south and east. Once again
the heaviest rainfall amounts will likely concentrate along the
coast. As such the Moderate Risk for this period was also
unchanged, focused from I-95 east and from I-40 north and east.

Further west, a similar situation remains as on Wednesday.
Painfully slow southward movement means many of the same areas get
hit with heavy rains again on Thursday as on Wednesday. The Slight
Risk was expanded west along the front due to the large amounts of
atmospheric moisture in place immediately ahead of the front. Many
areas have PWATs above 2 inches. The Slight Risk area includes
metros Birmingham, AL, Atlanta, and into Charlotte, NC. All 3 of
these metros have some risk of training storms, with Charlotte the
highest of those 3.

...Central Plains...

A pair of nocturnal MCSs, one Wednesday night into Thursday
morning, and a second much stronger one Thursday night into Friday,
will impact portions of southeastern Nebraska, northeastern Kansas,
and into small portions of Iowa and Missouri through the period.
These back-to-back MCSs will sufficiently soak the soils such that
the heavy rain with Thursday Night's MCS will cause widely
scattered instances of flash flooding, especially where urban areas
such as Lincoln, Topeka, St. Joseph, and possibly Omaha and Kansas
City are impacted. The area of the Slight was adjusted, but remains
little changed with this update. The isolated flash flooding threat
represented by the Marginal extends well west of there through
nearly all of Wyoming and Colorado. While the flooding threat
diminishes considerably in these states compared with Wednesday,
the leftover saturated soils and still likely formation of showers
and storms will keep an isolated flash flooding threat going.

...Bertha/South Texas...

Latest CAMs guidance are starting to come into agreement on a
solution that keeps the circulation of Bertha intact over the
northwestern Gulf before the westward moving storm moves inland in
Texas near or south of Houston. As such, the persistent convection
that continues to focus south/southwest of the center eventually
impacts land areas, in this case in south Texas. A Marginal Risk
covering much of South Texas was introduced with this update. It's
likely that a Slight Risk upgrade will be needed with future
updates, short of a northward jog in the guidance that kills off
the rain much earlier, as the guidance had been showing in recent
days. The area most likely to see that upgrade is around Corpus
Christi through Victoria.

Wegman
$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)