Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Aug 19 2026 - 00Z Fri Aug 21 2026

...Potential for severe storms across the central Plains with heavy and
flash flooding threats across the Midwest...

...Severe storms across mid-Mississippi Valley Wednesday to Wednesday
night...

...Dangerous heat persists in the South and Southeast while building into
the Southwest...


Around of heavy showers and strong to severe thunderstorms developing
across the northern Plains will move toward the Upper Midwest associated
with a cold front.
Meanwhile,a slight risk of severe thunderstorms is forecast over northern
Iowa, southern Wisconsin, extreme southeastern Minnesota, and farther
south across the central Plains as the cold front from the north collides
with a warm front from the south. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast from northeastern Colorado, central Nebraska, northwestern and northeastern Kansas. WPC and SPC both have Slight Risks out for Excessive Rainfall and severe storms in the heart of the Midwest where flash
flooding and storms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds may occur.

As the cold front continues to track east towards the Northeast on
Wednesday while low pressure in the southern Plains helps produce
additional storms from the central Rockies to as far east as the Ohio
Valley through Wednesday night. On Thursday, WPC and SPC both have a level
2 risk for Excessive Rainfall and severe thunderstorms across the mid-Mississippi Valley. On Friday, as the front progresses southward, WPC
has a marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall across much of the mid-South,
the Mid-Atlantic, and across the Desert Southwest.

Regarding temperatures, the southern tier of the Lower 48 remains mired in
a steamy air-mass even by mid-late August standards. Record highs and
record warm minimum temperatures will be common with the Southeast at the
heart of the anomalous heat through today. By Wednesday, as upper-level
ridging strengthens over the Southwest, some cases of record breaking
warmth are expected in the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains. Extreme
Heat Warnings are in effect for much of the Desert Southwest, with
widespread Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories stretching from the Dallas/Fort Worth and Oklahoma City metro areas eastward to the Southeast coast. Overnight lows will be so warm (low 80s in some cases) that, when combined with oppressive dew points, little-to-no relief from the
scorching daytime highs will be available. Residents are advised to follow proper heat safety tips by limiting outdoor activity, staying hydrated, ensuring access to A/C or cooling centers, and checking on vulnerable
friends, neighbors, and family members.


Kong/Green


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php


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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Aug 20 2026 - 00Z Sat Aug 22 2026

...Heavy rain and flash flooding threats across the Midwest, Ohio Valley
and southern Arizona today, shifting east to the Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday...

...Severe storms possible across mid-Mississippi Valley today through tonight...

... Severe storms possible across Nebraska and flash flooding possible in
the Southeast on Friday...

...Dangerous heat persists in the South while building into the
Southwest...

Heavy rain and thunderstorms have developed across much of eastern
Nebraska moving into southern portions of Iowa and northern portions of Missouri due to a cold front moving through the central plains. SPC has a slight risk for severe weather where these storms are capable of producing severe wind gusts and hail as daytime heating maximize. WPC has a slight
risk of excessive rainfall also in the general area. Clusters of organized heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue traveling eastward across
the central Plains toward the mid-Mississippi Valley this evening through tonight. These thunderstorms are forecast to become more focused in the mid-Mississippi Valley through tonight ahead of a low pressure wave
traveling eastward. SPC has a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across
the mid-Mississippi Valley and WPC has a slight risk of excessive rainfall extending farther north into the Midwest and Ohio Valley.

Meanwhile, monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be most active during
the late-day hours across the Four Corners states, where the WPC has highlighted a marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall through the next couple
of days. In addition, a slight risk is in place across southern Arizona
for today.

By Thursday, the cold front will advance farther eastward and begin to
merge with the meandering front to the south. A convergence zone
sandwiched between these two fronts will focus a corridor of enhanced
rainfall. Heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms is possible along this corridor roughly from I-95 east to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. WPC
has highlighted this area for a slight risk of excessive rainfall mainly
later on Thursday when daytime heating is maximized. In addition, SPC has highlighted a slight risk for severe weather where the main threat is
damaging wind gusts. By Thursday night into early Friday, the heavy rain
should temporarily exit the Mid-Atlantic coast as a low-pressure wave
slides off the coast of southern New England. Another round of severe
weather is possible for eastern Nebraska into Minnesota and Wisconsin
Thursday afternoon into the evening. A weak low pressure system will
migrate from Minnesota into the U.P. Michigan, creating a weak surface
front along with dew points in the low to mid 60s to generate severe
weather. SPC has outlined a slight risk of severe weather for the area
where the main threat will be large hail, and isolated wind damage.

On Friday, much of central and eastern Nebraska will yet again experience another round of severe weather. A low pressure system will develop along
a surface trough with ample moisture and strong instability in place to initiate some supercell thunderstorms. SPC has highlight a slight risk for severe weather where main threat will be isolated to scattered damaging
hail (some greater than 2 inches),and some severe wind gusts for Friday afternoon into the evening hours. As for the Southeast, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are forecast within a very moist and unstable environment along a surface trough. Single to multi-cell convection will
pose the risk for excessive rainfall where WPC has highlighted a slight
risk for excessive rainfall from northern portions of South Carolina to
the southern portions of Virginia.


Temperature-wise, the southern tier of the Lower 48 remains mired in a
steamy air-mass even by mid-to-late August standards. Record highs and
record warm minimum temperatures will be common with the Southeast at the
heart of the anomalous heat through today. The upper ridge is forecast to strengthen over the Southwest while cool Canadian air dips further into
the Great Lakes. Some cases of record-breaking warmth are expected in the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains as temperatures dip into the 40s near
the Canadian border in the upper Midwest. Extreme Heat Warnings are in
effect for much of the Desert Southwest, and Extreme Heat Warnings remain
in effect across portions of the southern Plains to the Deep South. Heat Advisories are in effect for all of Florida and the southeast U.S. coast. Overnight lows will be so warm (low 80s in some cases) that, when combined
with oppressive dew points, little-to-no relief from the scorching daytime highs will be available. Residents are advised to follow proper heat
safety tips by limiting outdoor activity, staying hydrated, ensuring
access to A/C or cooling centers, and checking on vulnerable friends, neighbors, and family members.


Green/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Aug 20 2026 - 12Z Sat Aug 22 2026

...Heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe weather threats spreading from
the Ohio/Tennessee Valley this morning to the Mid-Atlantic coast later
today...

...Severe thunderstorms possible across the upper Midwest to the central
Plains today, mainly over the north-central Plains on Friday...

...Dangerous heat persists in the South while building into the
Southwest...

As a cool air mass from Canada advances toward the northeastern U.S.
against a persistent and stagnant heat dome anchored across the southern
tier states over the next couple of days, the focus of heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe weather and thunderstorms will shift from the Ohio/Tennessee Valley this morning to the Mid-Atlantic coast later today.
A convergence zone sandwiched between the stationary front to the south
and the cold front from Canada will focus a corridor of enhanced rainfall. Heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms is expected along this corridor
roughly from I-95 east to the northern Mid-Atlantic coast. WPC has
highlighted this area for a slight risk of excessive rainfall mainly later today when daytime heating is maximized. In addition, SPC has highlighted
a slight risk for severe weather where the main threat is damaging wind
gusts. By tonight into early Friday, the heavy rain should temporarily
exit the Mid-Atlantic coast as a low-pressure wave slides off the coast of southern New England. Some lighter rainfall may wrap around the low
pressure wave toward southern New England on Friday. Day-time heating is forecast to trigger the next round of heavy thunderstorms later on Friday across the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic where a slight risk of excessive rainfall is highlighted. From Friday night into Saturday morning, showers
and embedded thunderstorms are expected to advance up the Mid-Atlantic
states as a trough of low pressure deepens over the Great Lakes.

Over the midsection of the country, another round of severe weather is
possible for eastern Nebraska into Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon
into the evening ahead of a front trailing from a low pressure wave moving across Minnesota into the U.P. Michigan. SPC has outlined a slight risk of severe weather for the area where the main threat will be large hail, and isolated wind damage.

On Friday, much of central and eastern Nebraska will yet again experience another round of severe weather as the trailing front pushes against the northern boundary of the heatwave across the South where ample moisture,
strong instability and shear are in place to initiate some supercell thunderstorms. SPC has highlighted a slight risk for severe weather where
the main threat will be isolated to scattered damaging hail (some greater
than 2 inches) and some severe wind gusts for Friday afternoon into the
evening hours. As for the Southeast, scattered to numerous thunderstorms
are forecast within a very moist and unstable environment along a surface trough. Single to multi-cell convection will pose the risk for excessive rainfall where WPC has highlighted a slight risk for excessive rainfall
from northern portions of South Carolina to the southern portions of
Virginia.

Meanwhile, monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be most active during
the late-day hours across the Four Corners states, where the WPC has highlighted a marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall through the next couple
of days. In addition, a slight risk is in place across southern Arizona
for today.

Temperature-wise, the southern tier of the Lower 48 remains mired in a
steamy air-mass even by mid-to-late August standards. Record highs and
record warm minimum temperatures will be common with the Southeast at the
heart of the anomalous heat through today. The upper ridge is forecast to strengthen over the Southwest while cool Canadian air dips further into
the Great Lakes where showers will become more widespread heading into the weekend. Some cases of record-breaking warmth are expected in the Desert Southwest and Southern Plains as temperatures dip into the 40s near the Canadian border in the upper Midwest. Extreme Heat Warnings are in effect
for much of the Desert Southwest, and Extreme Heat Warnings remain in
effect across portions of the southern Plains to the Deep South. Heat Advisories are in effect for all of Florida and the southeast U.S. coast. Overnight lows will be so warm (low 80s in some cases) that, when combined
with oppressive dew points, little-to-no relief from the scorching daytime highs will be available. Residents are advised to follow proper heat
safety tips by limiting outdoor activity, staying hydrated, ensuring
access to A/C or cooling centers, and checking on vulnerable friends, neighbors, and family members.


Kong/Green


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Aug 21 2026 - 00Z Sun Aug 23 2026

...Severe weather and flash flood threats across parts of the East into tomorrow, with severe threats over the Central Plains on Friday...

...Dangerous heat persists in the South while building into the
Southwest...

A couple of wavy cold front in the East will support and help focus heavy
rain, flash flooding, and severe weather across much of the Mid-Atlantic
this evening and into tonight. As daytime heating and instability are
maximized this afternoon, strong to severe weather with embedded heavy
rain will focus along a slow moving boundary draped across the
Mid-Atlantic. WPC highlights this region with a slight risk of excessive rainfall. There an embedded moderate risk for excessive rain/flash
flooding for the New York City metro region and central to northern New
Jersey where an area of low pressure exiting the coast could help to
enhance rainfall in this more flood prone region. The northern part of
this boundary should shift off the Coast later tonight, but the southern portion should help to maintain the severe weather and flash flood threat across the southern Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Carolinas tomorrow. Both
WPC and SPC highlight this region in the respective excessive rainfall and convective outlooks for Friday.

Over the midsection of the country, another round of severe weather is
possible for eastern Nebraska into Minnesota and Wisconsin this afternoon
into the evening ahead of a front trailing from a low pressure wave moving across Minnesota into the U.P. Michigan. SPC has outlined a slight risk of severe weather for the area where the main threat will be large hail, and isolated wind damage. On Friday, much of central and eastern Nebraska will experience another round of severe weather as the trailing front pushes southward. SPC highlights this region in a slight risk. As this boundary
is expected to be rather progressive, flash flooding is not a threat, but heavier rainfall is possible in stronger thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, monsoonal showers and thunderstorms will be most active during
the late-day hours across the Four Corners states, where the WPC has highlighted a marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall through the next couple
of days.

The southern tier of the Lower 48 remains mired in a steamy air-mass even
by mid-to-late August standards. Record highs and record warm minimum temperatures will be common from the Southern Plains into the Southeast,
with a few records into the Southwest as well. Extreme Heat Warnings are
in effect for much of the Desert Southwest, with Extreme Heat Warnings and
Heat Advisories extending from the Southern Plains to Florida and the
Southeast Coast. Expect little to no overnight relief across these regions
as temperatures struggle to get below 80F in some locations. This equates
to widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk. The heat should finally moderate across the Southeast as a cold front moves into the region on Friday, but
this potentially dangerous heat wave will continue even beyond the short
range period for the Southern Plains and expand over the Southwest as
well. Please refer to Key Messages issued by WPC for additional
information on this event.


Santorelli/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
233 AM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Aug 21 2026 - 12Z Sun Aug 23 2026

...Severe weather and flash flood threats across parts of the East through Saturday, with severe/flooding threats across portions of Central Plains
on Friday...

...Dangerous heat persists in the South while building into the Southwest through the weekend...


Unsettled weather continues into the weekend as a broad upper-level ridge remains entrenched across the southern U.S., while several shortwave disturbances and surface boundaries move through central and eastern U.S.
The frontal boundary draping across the Southern Plains to the Southeast
and northward into the Mid-Atlantic will continue to interact with
unstable and warm airmass. This will support multiple rounds of showers
and thunderstorms, leading to possible Slight Risk for excessive rainfall
and flash flooding, especially across Virginia into the Carolinas. Additionally, Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Slight Risk for
severe thunderstorms, capable of producing severe/damaging wind gust on
Friday across the Southeast/Carolinas. The boundary will continue to lift northward and slowly move eastward on Saturday, while a second boundary
follows behind. This will bringing additional rainfall across the eastern seaboard, leading to clustered thunderstorms that may produce excessive rainfall/flash flooding, especially across the East Coast, while the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley may experience severe thunderstorms.

Across central U.S., another frontal boundary will bring chances for
showers and thunderstorms as the boundary moves southward and interacts
with increasing instability and deep-layer shear. Organized convection may develop, which may lead to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms, hail, and damaging winds across the central Plains and Midwest, while a Marginal
Risk is in place for excessive rainfall/heavy rainfall across portions of
the central Plains, that may lead to localized flooding through Saturday morning. Across the southwest, monsoonal moisture will remain concentrated across the Four Corners and southern Rockies. Afternoon heating combined
with terrain-driven circulations will initiate scattered thunderstorms
through the weekend, with locally heavy rainfall possible from slow-moving storms. On Saturday, the ridge will shift eastward, while a shortwave disturbance pushes into the Pacific Northwest. The influx of moisture will expand the flooding threat northward, covering much of western U.S., as
storms are expected to develop along the boundary. Additionally, the storm
may produce severe thunderstorms and a chance for small hail within the stronger cells.

Meanwhile, dangerous heat continues across the south-central U.S. and the Southwest through the weekend as the ridge continues to support above
normal temperatures. Numerous daily record highs are expected, with
daytime highs of 100-110 degrees across the Southern Plains into the
Southwest. With little to no overnight relief, as minimum temperatures
will remain warm, and high humidity, heat indices may reach 105-115
degrees. Therefore, expect widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk through
the weekend. Refer to Key Messages issued by WPC for additional
information on this event.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Aug 22 2026 - 00Z Mon Aug 24 2026

...Broad area of thunderstorms maintain a scattered severe weather and
flash flood threat across the Central and Eastern U.S.; monsoon activity continues over the West...

...Dangerous heat persists in the South while building into the Southwest through the weekend...

Unsettled summertime weather will continue through the weekend from the
Plains states eastward as an amplifying frontal system near the Upper
Great Lakes merges with a stalled frontal boundary draped across the
Mid-South. The leading boundary in the Mid-South will support multiple
rounds of thunderstorms capable of scattered flash flooding this afternoon
and tomorrow across portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Severe weather is also a concern across the Southeast today, where the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a Slight Risk for damaging wind gusts. Meanwhile, the Great
Lakes boundary will sink southward today, supporting a separate corridor
of severe weather from northern Illinois to western Nebraska. By tomorrow,
the boundaries will begin to merge together, ushering in additional heavy rainfall across the Eastern Seaboard with pockets of isolated severe also possible form the Midwest to the Northern Rockies. Across the southwest, monsoonal moisture will remain concentrated across the Four Corners and Southern Rockies. Afternoon heating combined with terrain-driven
circulations will initiate scattered thunderstorms through the weekend,
leading to locally heavy rainfall from slow-moving storms.

Meanwhile, dangerous heat continues across the south-central U.S. and the Southwest through the weekend as an amplified upper-ridge continues to
support above normal temperatures. Numerous daily record highs are
expected, with daytime highs of 100-110 degrees across the Southern Plains
into the Southwest. With little to no overnight relief, as minimum
temperatures will remain warm, and high humidity, heat indices may reach 105-115 degrees. Therefore, expect widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk
through the weekend. Refer to Key Messages issued by WPC for additional information on this event.


Asherman/Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
119 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Aug 22 2026 - 12Z Mon Aug 24 2026

...Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of eastern
U.S. on Saturday...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of
Rockies/Plains into the Southwest through the weekend...

...Dangerous heat continues across south-central U.S. into the Southwest through the weekend...


A amplified pattern with a deepening trough over eastern U.S. and
persistent ridging over the southern Plains/Southwest will bring unsettled conditions across the Rockies/Plains into eastern U.S. into early next
week. At the surface, the low over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will
continue to strengthen, while frontal boundaries begin to merge. The slow moving boundary will drape across the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic, into the Southeast and southern Plains by Saturday. Increasing cyclonic flow, upper-level forcing, and sufficient moisture will maintain multiple rounds
of showers and thunderstorms along the boundary, with locally heavy
rainfall possible across portions of the Great Lakes,
Mid-Atlantic/Carolinas into the Northeast. By Sunday, the system will
continue to move eastward, with cyclogenesis north of the Great Lakes, supporting additional showers for portions of the Northeast. Additionally, Storm Prediction Center highlights a severe thunderstorm threat capable of producing severe hail and wind across portions of southern Plains and Ohio Valley/Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic for Saturday, while the threat is confined
to the Northeast by Sunday.

Further west, the stationary frontal boundary will continue to stretch
across the Rockies/Plains into the Four Corners. The combination of the shortwave disturbances, slow moving frontal boundary, and moisture influx
can lead to showers and thunderstorms. These systems may be capable of producing excessive rainfall/flash flooding, lightning, severe hail and damaging winds across portions of the Rockies/Plains into the Southwest
through the weekend.

The southern tier will remain dominated by the upper-level ridging
centered over the Southwest. This will maintain above normal temperatures
into next week. The dangerous heat will build across south-central U.S.
and Southwest with daytime highs of 100-110 degrees across the Southern
Plains into the Southwest, with numerous record breaking highs. With
little to no overnight relief, as minimum temperatures will remain warm,
and high humidity, heat indices may reach 105-115 degrees. Therefore,
expect widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk through the weekend. Refer to
Key Messages issued by WPC for additional information on this event.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Aug 23 2026 - 00Z Tue Aug 25 2026

...Dangerous and record-breaking heat continues across the south-central
U.S. into the Southwest...

...Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms and flash flooding possible across parts of the Great Lakes, Mid-South, and West through tonight...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of the
Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains through Monday...

Scorching August temperatures are set to continue throughout much of the South-Central U.S. and Southwest this weekend into early next week and
beyond as an anomalous upper ridge sets up over the region and prompts temperatures to remain well above average compared to typical heat this
time of year. Temperatures are forecast to be dangerously hot and rise
into the triple digits once again on Sunday and Monday throughout much of Texas, Oklahoma, eastern New Mexico, and into the Desert Southwest. Upper
90s are forecast to extend into the Gulf Coast regions and parts of the
central High Plains. When combined with warm overnight low temperatures in
the upper 70s and 80s, the HeatRisk is considered Extreme for much of the aforementioned regions. These temperatures are also expected to break
dozens of daily high temperature and warm overnight temperature records, further highlighting how this heat wave is not just typical August heat. Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories have been issued. Residents and visitors are reminded to stay hydrated and limit outdoor activity during
the hottest hours of the afternoon.

Thunderstorms and unsettled weather is forecast to continue through
tonight along a frontal boundary that stretches from the Lower Great Lakes
to the Lower Mississippi Valley and southern Plains. Additionally,
scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight across
much of the Intermountain West, Rockies, and Southwest. Isolated instances
of flash flooding are possible, as well as damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and hail. By Sunday and Monday, unsettled weather remains
across the Lower Great Lakes associated with a deepening low pressure
system across southeast Canada. Meanwhile, continued monsoonal
thunderstorm activity will continue across the Southwest, Intermountain
West, and Rockies on an isolated-to-scattered basis. Other clusters of thunderstorms are possible within northwesterly flow across the Great
Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Primary hazards with these
storms will be locally heavy rain, frequent lighting, and damaging wind
gusts. The greatest threat for damaging wind gusts on Sunday is forecast
to be located in parts of the central Great Basin and central/eastern
Montana, where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level
3/5) of severe weather.

Elsewhere, high pressure will bring cooler temperatures and drier
conditions for much of the Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley
through early next week.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 AM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Aug 23 2026 - 12Z Tue Aug 25 2026

...Dangerous and record-breaking heat continues across the south-central
U.S. into the Southwest...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of the
Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains, Midwest, and Southeast through
Monday...


A strong and persistent upper ridge centered over south-central U.S. and
the Southwest will maintain very hot conditions across the southern tier.
Above normal temperatures will continue to have daily afternoon highs
within the upper 90s to 100s, with the highest amounts over the Southern
Plains and portions of the Four Corners. With the combination of little to
no overnight recovery and high humidity, heat indices may reach 105-115 degrees, which may lead to widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk.
Furthermore, these abnormal temperatures are expected to break dozens of high/low daily temperatures through the week. Extreme Heat Warning and
Heat Advisories have been issued across portions of the Four Corners,
Southern Plains, and Lower Mississippi Valley.

North of the ridge, a corridor of enhanced moisture and instability will
extend from the northern Rockies/Plains into the Midwest and Lower
Mississippi Valley. Shortwave energy embedded within the northwesterly
flow will interact with this moisture and a frontal boundary, resulting in scattered thunderstorms through Monday. Repeated convection and high
rainfall rates may lead to excessive rainfall and flash flooding,
especially across the Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Additionally, Storm Prediction Center highlights the potential for severe thunderstorms, damaging wind gusts, and hail across portions of the Great
Basin and Rockies/Plains through Monday. Further southwest, monsoonal
moisture will continue to bring daily thunderstorms across the Southwest, Rockies, and Intermountain West, leading to excessive rainfall/flash
flooding concerns through Monday.

Meanwhile, a surface low and associated frontal boundary affecting the Northeast will gradually shift eastward, but additional upper-level energy
will support lingering showers and thunderstorms into Monday. Some storms
may become locally strong where sufficient instability develops, which may
lead to severe weather and excessive rainfall concerns. Additionally, the trailing frontal boundary stretching across the Southeast will bring
chances for severe thunderstorms, damaging winds, and excessive rainfall
into Monday.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
330 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 24 2026 - 00Z Wed Aug 26 2026

...Dangerous and record-breaking heat continues across the south-central
U.S. into the Southwest...

...Isolated to scattered flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of the Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast through Tuesday...


A strong and persistent upper ridge centered over south-central U.S. and
the Southwest will maintain very hot conditions across the southern tier.
Above normal temperatures will continue to have daily afternoon highs
within the upper 90s to 100s, with the highest values specifically over
much of Texas, Oklahoma, eastern New Mexico, and the Desert Southwest. The combination of little to no overnight recovery and high humidity (for the Southern Plains) will allow for heat indices to reach up to 105-115
degrees, which is where widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk is forecast. Furthermore, these abnormal temperatures are expected to break dozens of high/low daily temperatures through the week. Extreme Heat Warning and
Heat Advisories have been issued across portions of the Four Corners,
Southern Plains, and Lower Mississippi Valley. The anomalous summer heat
wave is expected to persist through early this week and beyond. See the
latest Key Messages linked at the bottom of the discussion for more information.

North of the ridge, a corridor of enhanced moisture and instability will
extend from the northern Rockies/Plains into the Midwest and Lower
Mississippi Valley. Shortwave energy embedded within the northwesterly
flow will interact with this moisture and a frontal boundary, resulting in scattered thunderstorms through Monday. By Tuesday, a system will eject eastward across south-central Canada and spread rain/thunderstorm chances
into the Upper Midwest. Repeated convection and high rainfall rates may
lead to excessive rainfall and isolated flash flooding, especially across
the Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Additionally, Storm
Prediction Center highlights the potential for severe thunderstorms,
damaging wind gusts, and hail across portions of the Great Basin and Rockies/Plains through Monday. Further southwest, monsoonal moisture will continue to bring daily thunderstorms across the Southwest, Rockies, and Intermountain West, leading to excessive rainfall/flash flooding concerns
the beginning of this week.

Meanwhile, a surface low and associated frontal boundary affecting the Northeast will gradually shift eastward, but additional upper-level energy
will support lingering showers and thunderstorms into Monday across the
Lower Great Lakes and northern New England. Some storms may become locally strong where sufficient instability develops, which may lead to severe
weather and excessive rainfall concerns. Additionally, the trailing
frontal boundary stretching across the Southeast will bring chances for
severe thunderstorms, damaging winds, and excessive rainfall on a isolated
to scattered basis through Tuesday.


Oudit/Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
220 AM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Aug 24 2026 - 12Z Wed Aug 26 2026

...Hazardous record-breaking heat continues across the south-central U.S.
into the Southwest this week...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threat across portions of the
Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast
through Tuesday...


A strong ridge anchored over the Southwest and south-central U.S. will
continue to bring hazardous heat across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley, and gradually into the Southwest by mid-week. Daytime
highs will reach 100-110 degrees across the southern Plains, while
portions of the Southwest can reach up to 115. Some areas are even
expected to break dozens of high/low daily temperatures through the week.
With the combination of well above normal temperatures and the high
humidity, heat indices will remain elevated. Additionally, the warm
overnight temperatures will provide limited recovery, leading to
widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk through the week. See the latest Key Messages linked at the bottom of the discussion for more information.

The western periphery of the ridge will remain a corridor for monsoonal moisture extending northward across the Four Corners and Intermountain West/Rockies. Unstable airmass will interact with shortwave energy and the frontal boundary, leading to scattered thunderstorms across portions of
the Southwest, Great Basin, and central Rockies. The strongest storms will
be capable of producing severe thunderstorms with gusty winds and flash flooding through Tuesday, especially over areas that have sufficient instability. Further north, a progressive westerly flow will persist
across the northern Rockies/Plains and upper Midwest. As the frontal
boundary moves eastward, it will interact with warm unstable air,
supporting repeated organized showers and thunderstorms across the Rockies/Plains into the Upper Midwest. Locally heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms will be possible with stronger storms through Tuesday,
especially over the central/southern High Plains.

Meanwhile, the surface low and associated frontal boundary will continue
to exit eastward from the Northeast, but shortwave troughs will continue
to produce lingering showers and thunderstorms through Monday across the
Lower Great Lakes and New England. Further south, the trailing frontal
boundary will drape across the Southeast into the southern Plains,
bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. As the
boundary interacts with warm moist air and sufficient instability,
organized storm cells may develop. The strongest storms may produce
damaging winds, severe thunderstorms, and localized flash
flooding/excessive rainfall, especially along the Gulf Coast, Lower
Mississippi Valley, and Southeast Coast.



Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 PM EDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Aug 25 2026 - 00Z Thu Aug 27 2026

...Dangerous record-breaking heat continues across the south-central U.S.
into the Southwest this week...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threats continue across portions of
the Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast
through Wednesday...


A strong ridge anchored over the Southwest and south-central U.S. will
continue to bring hazardous heat across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley before gradually expanding into the Southwest by
mid-week. Daytime highs will reach 100-110 degrees across the southern
Plains, while portions of the Southwest can reach up to 115. Some areas
are even expected to break dozens of daily temperature records through the week. Additionally, very warm overnight temperatures will provide limited nighttime relief, leading to widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk for the
next several days. See the latest Key Messages linked at the bottom of the discussion for more information.

The western periphery of the ridge will remain a corridor for monsoonal moisture extending northward across the Four Corners and Intermountain West/Rockies. The moisture combined with strong surface heating will lead
to scattered thunderstorms across portions of the Southwest, Great Basin,
and central Rockies. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
severe weather and heavy rainfall, with gusty winds and localized flash flooding possible through Wednesday. Farther north, a progressive westerly
flow will persist across the northern Rockies/Plains and Upper Midwest. As
the frontal boundary moves eastward, it will interact with warm and
unstable air, supporting episodes of organized thunderstorms across parts
of the Rockies/Plains into the Upper Midwest. Locally heavy rainfall and
severe weather will be possible with stronger storms through Tuesday and Wednesday, especially over the central/southern High Plains.

Meanwhile, a surface low and associated frontal boundary will continue to
pull away from the Northeast, but reinforcing disturbances will continue
to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across parts of northern
New England into Tuesday. Farther south, a trailing slow-moving frontal boundary will drape across the Southeast into the southern Plains,
bringing repeated chances for showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday.
Warm and moist Gulf air interacting with the nearly stalled front will
support the potential for locally heavy rainfall and severe weather. The strongest storms may produce damaging winds and isolated flash flooding, especially across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley, along the Gulf Coast, and for parts of the Southeast.


Miller/Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
134 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Aug 25 2026 - 12Z Thu Aug 27 2026

...Dangerous record-breaking heat continues across the south-central U.S.
into the Southwest this week...

...Flash flooding and severe weather threats continue across portions of
the Southwest and into the Rockies/Plains, Upper Midwest, and Southeast
through Wednesday...


A strong upper-level ridge will remain anchored across the Southwest into south-central U.S. into late week. This will maintain an abnormal
hazardous heat across the region, with daytime highs of 100-110 across the Southern Plains, while portions of the Southwest will reach up to 115.
With overnight temperatures providing limited relief, heat-related illness
may increase, especially for those without proper hydration and adequate cooling. Furthermore, widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk is forecasted
for much of the Southwest into Texas and Southern Plains through late
week. See the latest Key Messages linked at the bottom of the discussion
for more information.

Farther north, the troughing over the Northwest and northern Rockies will support a more active pattern from the northern and central Rockies/Plains
into the Upper Midwest as moisture continues to deepen along the frontal boundary. Increasing instability will also support organized convection,
that may lead to flash-flooding concerns across portions of the central/southern High Plains through Wednesday. Additionally, the system
will bring the risk for severe thunderstorms across the south/central
Plains into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, and shifts into the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley on Wednesday as the frontal boundary moves eastward.

Across the Southwest and portions of the Rockies/Plains, monsoonal
moisture will continue to move northward along the western periphery of
the ridge and interact with embedded shortwave energy. This will lead to
daily scattered showers and thunderstorms through Wednesday. Organized convection may lead to locally heavy rainfall rates, which will continue
to pose isolated flash-flooding concerns, particularly over terrain and
areas with wet antecedent conditions. Father east, increasing instability
and persistent Gulf moisture along a slow-moving frontal boundary will
support repeated showers and thunderstorms across the Southeast into Lower Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southern Plains. Therefore, the
risk for severe thunderstorms, damaging winds, and isolated heavy rainfall/flash-flooding will continue for portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley and the Southeast through Wednesday.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
414 PM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Aug 26 2026 - 00Z Fri Aug 28 2026

...Dangerous record-breaking heat continues across the South-Central U.S.
into the Southwest this week...

...Scattered instances of flash flooding (level 2/5) will be possible
Wednesday and Thursday across the Lower Mississippi Valley...

Strong to severe storms will be possible ahead of a cold front in the
Mid-South to the Ohio Valley tomorrow and into the Northeast on Thursday...

A strong upper-level ridge will remain anchored across the Southwest into
the South-Central U.S. into late week. This will maintain an abnormal
hazardous heat across the region. Daytime highs of 100-110 degrees F are forecast across the Southern Plains for Wednesday and Thursday, while
portions of the Southwest will reach upwards to the upper 90s and low 100s
F in the valleys and 110s in the deserts. The urban areas of San Diego and
Los Angeles are under Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings through
the end of the week. With overnight temperatures providing limited relief, heat-related illness may increase, especially for those without proper hydration and adequate cooling. Accordingly, widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk is forecast for much of the Southwest into Texas through late
week. See the latest Key Messages linked at the bottom of the discussion
for more information.

An upper-level trough and surface cold front will begin to sweep eastward across the Mid-Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes tomorrow, sparking
chances for strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and
hail. A tornado or two may also be possible on Wednesday in the Great
Lakes region, according to the Storm Prediction Center. On Thursday, the
severe weather threat (level 2/5) will shift to the Northeast for threats
of damaging winds, hail, and a tornado or two possible. Additionally, the
High / Central Plains into the eastern Rockies will see a chance for
strong to severe storms Wednesday and Thursday for mainly hazards of large hail.

Across the Southwest and portions of the Rockies, monsoonal moisture will continue to move northward along the western periphery of the ridge and interact with embedded shortwave energy. This will lead to daily scattered showers and thunderstorms Wednesday and Thursday. 1-2 inch an hour
rainfall rates with storms will continue to pose isolated flash-flooding concerns, particularly over sensitive terrain such as burn scars, slot
canyons, etc... Father east, increasing instability and persistent Gulf moisture along a slow-moving frontal boundary will support repeated
showers and thunderstorms across the Southeast into Lower Mississippi
Valley. The Excessive Rainfall Outlook was bumped up to a Slight Risk on Wednesday for portions of Arkansas, Mississippi, and Tennessee due to a
frontal wave enhancing the organization and coverage of storms. A Slight
Risk is also forecast on Thursday from Louisiana to South Carolina as a
stalled frontal boundary and shortwave energy interacts with summer
instability to produce the likelihood of locally heavy rainfall.

Lastly, the northern Rockies into the mountain ranges of the Pacific
Northwest will continue to see elevated fire weather concerns with above average temperatures overlapping with low relative humidities and gusty
winds (10-30 mph). Follow local officials on fire weather orders.

Wilder/Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
112 AM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Aug 26 2026 - 12Z Fri Aug 28 2026

...Dangerous record-breaking heat continues across the South-Central U.S.
into the Southwest this week...

...Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms across the Midwest, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Wednesday...

...Flash flooding threat across the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley
into the Northeast on Thursday...

A strong upper-level ridge will remain anchored across the Southwest into
the South-Central U.S. into late week, bringing daytime highs in the upper
90s to low 100s, with isolated areas reaching between 100-115 degrees in
the Southwest and Southern Plains. Record-breaking overnight temperatures
will limit recovery from the heat, which may result in heat-related
illnesses for those without adequate cooling and hydration. Therefore, widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk will continue across portions of
Texas into the Southwest through Thursday. See the latest Key Messages
linked at the bottom of the discussion for more information.

A progressive upper-level trough will move eastward across the Midwest
into the Great Lakes toward the Northeast. Organized convection will
develop along the frontal boundary extending from central/southern Plains
and Midwest into the Ohio Valley and eventually the Northeast, as moisture
and instability increases. The strongest storms will have the potential to produce lightning, large hail, damaging winds, and excessive
rainfall/flash flooding through Wednesday, especially across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Furthermore, as a slow-moving frontal boundary across the Southeast and Lower Mississippi
Valley weakens, the cold front from the primary frontal system will move southeastward by late Wednesday. Deep Gulf moisture will continue to pool
along the boundary, which will maintain a corridor favorable for heavy
rainfall and severe thunderstorms from lower Mississippi Valley into
portions of the Southeast. On Thursday, the severe thunderstorm shifts to
the Northeast and Ohio Valley, while the heavy rainfall/flash flooding
threat encompasses portions of the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast
as the frontal boundary moves eastward.

Meanwhile, continued monsoonal moisture transport around the western
periphery of the ridge will support daily thunderstorms across the
portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, Rockies, and central/southern
Plains. The combination of high moisture and instability may lead to
organized slow-moving storms, which will continue to favor isolated flash flooding across much of the Four Corners into the central/southern High
Plains and Rockies through Thursday. Additionally, some of organized
convection may produce strong winds, large hail, and lightning across the central/southern High Plains.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
427 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Aug 27 2026 - 00Z Sat Aug 29 2026

...Dangerous record-breaking heat continues across the South-Central U.S.
into the Southwest this week...

...Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorms across the Midwest, Lower Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Wednesday...

...Flash flooding threat across the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley
into the Northeast on Thursday...

The overall weather pattern continues to show ridging holding on across
the Southwest U.S and maintaining the extreme heat for Thursday and
Friday. Meanwhile, troughing across the Pacific Northwest will push a cold front across the region late week into the weekend. This will drop
temperatures slightly below average into the 70s and 80s and bring chances
for showers and thunderstorms across the upper Inter-Mountain West through Friday. Across the East, a cold front will clear the Ohio Valley today and bring the potential for locally heavy rainfall across the I-95 corridor tomorrow. Cooler air will filter behind the front and bring high
temperatures down to the low 80s and upper 70s and morning low
temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s.


As mentioned above, strong upper-level ridge will remain anchored across
the Southwest through Friday, bringing daytime highs in the upper 90s to
low 100s, with isolated areas reaching between 100-115 degrees in the Southwest. Record-breaking overnight temperatures will limit recovery from
the heat, which may result in heat-related illnesses for those without
adequate cooling and hydration. Therefore, widespread Major to Extreme
HeatRisk will continue across portions of southern Texas, New Mexico,
Arizona, and California. See the latest Key Messages linked at the bottom
of the discussion for more information.

A progressive upper-level trough will move eastward across the Midwest
into the Great Lakes toward the Northeast. Organized convection will
develop along and ahead of a frontal boundary tomorrow from Washington
D.C. northwards to the Hudson Valley. The strongest storms will have the potential to produce isolated instances of hail, damaging winds, and
isolated tornadoes. Moreover, excessive rainfall/flash flooding is
becoming increasingly likely from Baltimore to New York City metros with a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall and local flood watches in effect.

Across the central Gulf Coast on Thursday, proximity to a stalled frontal boundary and shortwave energy ejecting southwards towards the Gulf will
provide forcing for abundant thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall from central Louisiana towards the Florida Panhandle. A Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook is in effect for the possibility of scattered instances
of flash flooding for mostly localized urban areas such as New Orleans and Mobile. The threat for locally heavy rainfall will shift towards the
eastern Carolinas on Friday with a front and lee troughing across the
Piedmont promoting thunderstorm development. There remains some
uncertainty on the flash flooding extent with the higher flash flood
guidance across the coastal plain. Some gusty winds are possible as well according to the Storm Prediction Center for the possibility of wet microbursts, typical of summer thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, continued monsoonal moisture transport around the western
periphery of the ridge will support daily thunderstorms across the
portions of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Rockies. For the Southwest
monsoon, the combination of high moisture and instability may lead to
organized slow-moving storms, which will continue to favor isolated flash flooding across much of the Four Corners Thursday and Friday. For the
northern and central Plains, a complex of thunderstorms or two may form Thursday and Friday, bringing isolated instances of large hail and
accompanied locally heavy rainfall.


Oudit/Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
208 AM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Aug 27 2026 - 12Z Sat Aug 29 2026

...Heavy rainfall and severe thunderstorm threat across portions of the Mid-Atlantic, Ohio Valley, and Northeast on Thursday...

...Heavy rainfall threat continues across the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast and Mid-Atlantic through...

...Dangerous record-breaking heat continues across the South-Central U.S.
into the Southwest this week...


An amplified pattern continues with a persistent upper-level ridging
across the Four Corner and Southwest U.S., while broad troughing extends
into eastern U.S. A series of northern-stream shortwaves will progress eastward, which will help push the frontal boundary over the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley into the Northeast, Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Lower Mississippi Valley. Increasing low-level moisture and instability ahead of
the slow-moving frontal boundary will support showers and thunderstorms,
which may lead to heavy rainfall/flash flooding risk across the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast and Gulf Coast on Thursday. Additionally, locally strong to severe storms may develop across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, which may produce lightning, hail, isolated tornadoes, and damaging winds. On Friday, much of the northern portion of
the cold front moves offshore, while the trailing front stalls across the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast. This will continue the severe
thunderstorm and flash flooding threat along the boundary.

The frontal boundary will also drape across the central/southern Plains northward into the northern Rockies/Plains, bringing chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. As the slow-moving boundary interacts with moist and unstable airmass, clustering of thunderstorms may develop. This will lead to a flash flooding risk across central/southern
Plains and a severe thunderstorm threat across the central Plains and
northern Rockies for Thursday. On Friday, the severe weather and heavy
rainfall threat moves into the northern/central Plains as the frontal
boundary lifts northward. Across the southwest, monsoonal moisture will continue to extend northward around the western periphery of the ridge, supporting diurnally driven thunderstorm across the Southwest into the
Rockies and Great Basin through Friday. Strong organized storms may
produce isolated flash flooding, especially over burn scars, urban areas,
and slot canyons.

The persistent upper-level ridge continues to bring dangerous heat across
the Southwest and portions of Texas through Friday. Daytime highs in the
upper 90s to low 100s, with isolated areas reaching between 100-115
degrees in the Southwest. Record-breaking overnight temperatures will
limit recovery from the heat, which may result in heat-related illnesses
for those without adequate cooling and hydration. Therefore, expect Major
to Extreme HeatRisk across portions of the Southwest and Southern Texas.
See the latest Key Messages linked at the bottom of the discussion for
more information.

Otherwise, temperatures will somewhat cool over the central and southern
Plains as the frontal boundary moves southward. Additionally, a cold front
and a upper-level trough will move over the Pacific Northwest bringing
cooler temperatures and chances for showers across portions of the Intermountain West.



Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
417 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Aug 28 2026 - 00Z Sun Aug 30 2026

...The Southeast, Northern Plains, and the Southwest will chances for
showers and thunderstorms for Friday into the weekend, some of which could
be marginally severe or bring locally heavy rainfall...

...Southwest heat will abate, while the heat shifts back to the Central
Plains by the end of the weekend...

...A cool down will occur for the West as an upper-trough moves through
the region...

The weather pattern across the U.S. will continue to favor storms across
the Southeast for the weekend as a stationary boundary lingers across the region. Additionally, a mid-level and surface low is forecast to form from
a shortwave across the central Gulf Coast for the weekend and enhance
showers and thunderstorms. Across the West, an upper-trough will bring a
couple of surface fronts through the Pacific Northwest and Inter-Mountain
West before slowing down over the area. This will promote showers and thunderstorms over the next few days. The strong mid-upper level ridge
across the Southwest will shift to the southern Plains for the weekend.
This will bring temperatures down closer to average for southern
California, Arizona, and southern Nevada, while warmer than average temperatures with highs in the low 100s are possible across the South and Central Plains.

A Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook is in place for Friday across the Carolinas and the Virginia Tidewater as instability and moisture pools
along a stalled frontal boundary in the region. Thunderstorms capable of
hourly rainfall rates of 1-2 inches a hour could result in instances of scattered flash flooding. Elsewhere, a Marginal Risk extends from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast for a more marginal threat of flash flooding as the front hangs up along the east coast. For Saturday, the stationary front
will continue to reside over the Southeast and interact with a weak
mid-level low to enhance showers and storms capable of locally heavy rain
and an isolated flash flood risk typical of summertime thuderstorms. A
Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for Friday and Saturday
across the Northern Plains as shortwave troughs interact with instability
and marginal surface moisture to produce complexes of storms. The quick
motion of the storms should keep any flash flood threat marginal. Out to
the West, monsoon moisture across the Four Corners region and a broader upper-level trough for the Rockies will bring a Marginal Risk for
Excessive Rainfall on Friday and Saturday Arizona to southern Montana.

In terms of severe weather, scattered strong winds are possible for the Southeast tomorrow from wet microbursts, typical of summer pulse
thunderstorms. Across the Dakotas, the upper-level trough moving into the
area will bring dynamics supporting supercell wind profiles and bring
risks of large hail and damaging winds if storms form into linear
segments. On Saturday, a Marginal outlook is in effect from the Great
Basin to the Dakotas with strong to severe wind gusts possible.



Oudit/Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
326 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Aug 28 2026 - 12Z Sun Aug 30 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Northern Plains/Great Basin on Friday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southern Mid-Atlantic/Southeast on Friday...

A quasi-stationary front will move off the Northeast Coast overnight
Friday. At the same time, the southern part of the boundary continues from
the Southern Mid-Atlantic to the Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday night. Near and south of the front, showers and thunderstorms will
develop over the Southern Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast and
Central/Eastern Gulf Coast through Sunday morning. Moisture-rich air and
the nearby front will contribute to showers and thunderstorms producing
heavy rain over parts of the Southern Mid-Atlantic/Southeast on Friday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Mid-Atlantic/Southeast. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

A front extending from the Northern High Plains southwestward to Northern California will remain quasi-stationary through Saturday morning, when a reinforcing boundary will strengthen the front. Showers and thunderstorms
will develop over the Great Basin and into the Northern Plains, with a
strong diurnal component from late afternoon into late evening Friday and Saturday.

Moreover, monsoonal moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Southwest from late Friday
afternoon into late Saturday evening. The WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Furthermore, upper-level impulses will produce showers and thunderstorms
over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday and
the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Upper Great Lakes on Saturday and
Sunday. In addition, weak onshore flow and upper-level energy will help
produce rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Friday and Saturday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 AM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Aug 29 2026 - 12Z Mon Aug 31 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Great Basin on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest through Monday...

A quasi-stationary front from the North Carolina Coast roughly
southwestward to the Southern Plains will slowly dissipate from west to
east to the North Carolina Coast by Sunday morning. Near and south of the front, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Southern
Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast and Central/Eastern Gulf Coast through
Sunday evening. From Sunday night to Monday morning, showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast. Elsewhere,
weak onshore flow and upper-level energy will help produce rain over parts
of the Pacific Northwest on Saturday into Saturday evening.

Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Great Basin and into the Northern Plains, with a strong diurnal component from late afternoon into
late evening Saturday and Sunday. Monsoonal moisture will also produce
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over the Southwest. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
the Southwest through Monday. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow canyons/gullies, and burn scars the most vulnerable.

Moreover, a front extending from the Northern Plains southwestward to
Northern California will remain quasi-stationary through early Sunday
morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. In addition, on Sunday into
Monday morning, a stationary front will expand eastward from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes and extend into the Mid-Atlantic by Monday. Overnight Saturday, the showers and thunderstorms will expand over the
Great Lakes. Showers and thunderstorms will grow into New England from
Sunday evening into Monday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Aug 30 2026 - 00Z Tue Sep 01 2026

...Strong to severe thunderstorms possible across parts of the Great Basin
into tonight...

...Strong thunderstorms expected to move across the Northern Plains later
on Sunday...

...Slight Risk of excessive rainfall across the Four Corners region Sunday
and Monday...

A more active weather pattern is expected to develop across the western
U.S. as a couple of upper-level low/troughs are forecast to move through
the region. Showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of the leading trough
have already triggered across the Four Corners states into southwestern
Wyoming this afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center is highlighting the vicinity of northern Utah as most susceptible to a slight risk of severe thunderstorms through tonight. In addition, WPC is highlighting a slight
risk of excessive rainfall across the northern Great Basin and portions of Arizona through tonight. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow canyons/gullies, and burn scars being the most vulnerable.

From Sunday into Monday, the next upper-level trough is forecast to move onshore across California toward the Great Basin. This more subtle trough
could become more amplified to bring a higher chance of more widespread
showers and thunderstorms for the Four Corners states. Therefore, WPC has expanded the slight risk of excessive rainfall for this region for both
days. Areas of heavy rain may lead to localized rapid runoff from streams leading to flash flooding.

Meanwhile, fine and cooler-than-normal temperatures for late August have overspread the entire northeastern quarter of the country behind a cold
front. The trailing portion of the front will remain nearly stationary
across the Southeast, where showers and thunderstorms are expected to be
most active during the late-day hours with localized flooding possible. A
weak low-pressure area just off the central to eastern Gulf Coast will
also maintain a good chance of showers and thunderstorms nearby for the
next couple of days. Showers and thunderstorms can be expected to be most active in the late-day hours across the Sunshine State.

The trough moving through the Pacific Northwest will first bring showers
and embedded thunderstorms from west to east closer to the Canadian border
for the remainder of this weekend. Meanwhile, a low-pressure wave is
gradually developing over the northern Plains. As the main trough ejects eastward near the U.S.-Canadian border Sunday into Monday, expect a round
of strong thunderstorms to sweep from west to east across the northern
Plains later on Sunday, reaching the upper Midwest overnight Sunday or
early Monday. Otherwise, expect some showers and a few embedded
thunderstorms across the Great Lakes to northern New England as a
reinforcing cold front dips into the region through this weekend.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Aug 30 2026 - 12Z Tue Sep 01 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies through Monday...

Monsoonal moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies through
Monday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest, Great Basin, and Central Rockies on Sunday and Monday. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow canyons/gullies, and burn scars the most vulnerable.

A quasi-stationary front from the North Carolina Coast southwestward to
the Lower Mississippi Valley will slowly dissipate from west to east to
the North Carolina Coast by late Sunday morning. Near and south of the
front, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Southern
Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast and Central/Eastern Gulf Coast through
Sunday evening. From Sunday night to Tuesday morning, showers and
thunderstorms will develop over the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast and into
parts of the Western Gulf Coast.

Showers and thunderstorms will also develop over the Northern High Plains
and into the Northern Plains through early Monday morning. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop along and near a warm front
extending from the Great Lakes into parts of the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic from Monday through Tuesday. Lastly, scattered rain will
develop over parts of the Northwest Coast on early Tuesday morning.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Sun Aug 30 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Aug 31 2026 - 00Z Wed Sep 02 2026

...Heavy rain is forecast for the Four Corners states through Tuesday
morning, with a moderate risk of excessive rainfall across a portion of
Utah on Monday...

...Strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to sweep across the
northern Plains through tonight, possibly reaching into portions of the Northeast on Tuesday...

An upper-level trough moving onshore into California will lead to a more vigorous interaction with monsoonal moisture, producing a round of fairly widespread heavy rainfall across the Four Corners states through Monday
night. WPC continues to highlight a broad slight risk of excessive
rainfall for this general area of the Four Corners through Tuesday
morning, with a moderate risk issued for central to southern Utah on
Monday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow
canyons/gullies, and burn scars being the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, a fairly deep upper trough/low moving through the Pacific
Northwest will sweep a vigorous frontal system across the northern Plains.
A round of strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the frontal system is expected to impact the northern Plains from west to east through tonight. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are also expected across the Great
Lakes ahead of a pair of warm fronts on Monday. By Tuesday morning, the thunderstorms should reach the Northeast where some of these thunderstorms could become severe. Additional rounds of thunderstorms are also expected
to develop across the north-central U.S. on Tuesday near a meandering
front and a wave of low pressure.

As a low-pressure system tracks eastward across southern Canada, a broad southerly flow will develop across the eastern two-thirds of the country.
This will bring the heat and humidity over the central Plains farther
northeast into the Midwest and toward the Ohio Valley over the next couple
of days.

Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms should gradually become more isolated
as the weak stationary front near the coast dissipates. The Sunshine
State will continue to see thunderstorms most active in the late-day hours through the next couple of days.

Last but not least, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring an area of
low pressure off the central Gulf Coast for potential tropical cyclone development over the next couple of days as it generally moves west to west-northwest toward the western Gulf Coast region. This system will
increase the threat of showers and thunderstorms impacting the Louisiana
coast on Monday, followed by gusty winds possibly reaching the upper Texas coast by Tuesday.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Aug 31 2026 - 12Z Wed Sep 02 2026

...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Great
Basin on Monday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Western Gulf Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Lower Great Lakes, Northeast, and Northern Mid-Atlantic on
Tuesday...

Monsoonal moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over parts of the Great Basin through Monday. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Great Basin on Monday. The Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive
rainfall means numerous flash flooding events are possible; many streams
may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers, and flooding may include
debris flows in or near recently burned areas. In addition, numerous
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest, Central/Southern Rockies, and Central Plains may produce flash flooding.

Furthermore, a front will move from the Northern/Central Plains/Central
Rockies to the Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley/Northern High Plains
by Wednesday morning. The boundary will produce showers and thunderstorms
from the Great Lakes southwestward to the Central Plains on Monday.

On Tuesday, showers and thunderstorms will develop from the Central
Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast. Over the Lower Great Lakes, Northeast,
and Northern Mid-Atlantic, the showers and thunderstorms will become
severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Great Lakes, Northeast, and Northern Mid-Atlantic from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Moreover, weak low pressure over the Western/Central Gulf Coast will
produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over the region.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall with these thunderstorms over the Western/Central Gulf Coast on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable, and landslides on roads. Additionally, showers and thunderstorms will develop along the coast from
the Southeast/Florida to the Central/Western Gulf Coast Monday through Wednesday morning.

Additionally, a weakening front will approach the Northwest Coast by early Tuesday morning, producing rain over the area that will expand inland to
the Northern Intermountain Region by Tuesday afternoon into early
Wednesday. Lastly, heat will build over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley and Central/Southern Plains on Monday into Tuesday. In response,
Heat Advisories have been posted over the region.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Sep 01 2026 - 00Z Thu Sep 03 2026

...Tropical Depression Five is forecast to intensify to tropical storm
strength before making landfall over the upper Texas coast later on
Tuesday...

...A moderate risk of excessive rainfall from northern Arizona to Utah
through this evening...

...Strong to severe thunderstorms from the lower Great Lakes to the
northern Mid-Atlantic Tuesday and Wednesday, with a slight risk of flash flooding on Wednesday...

As the threat of heavy rainfall continues across the Great Basin to the
Four Corners, and late-summer heat spreads from the central U.S toward the eastern U.S., Tropical Depression Five (TD5) formed over the northern Gulf
from the tail end of a front that moved into the eastern Gulf last Friday. Tropical Depression Five is forecast to track generally west-northwest
passing south of Louisiana before making landfall over the upper Texas
coast later on Tuesday. This system will increase the chance of squally
showers and thunderstorms to affect southern Louisiana through Tuesday, followed by tropical-storm-force winds impacting the western Louisiana
coast to the upper Texas coast later on Tuesday and Tuesday night. WPC has
a slight risk of excessive rainfall for a portion of these areas as well. Please refer to the latest updates on TD5 from the National Hurricane
Center as a small system such as TD5 could be prone to quicker intensity changes.

Meanwhile, an upper-level trough continues to move further into the
western U.S. and interact with monsoonal moisture to produce fairly
widespread heavy rainfall across the Four Corners states with embedded thunderstorms. WPC continues to highlight a broad slight risk of
excessive rainfall for this general area of the Four Corners through
tonight, with a moderate risk issued for northern Arizona to central
through tonight. The associated heavy rain could lead to a rapid rise of
water along small streams and narrow canyons/gullies, with burn scars
being the most vulnerable location. The heavy rain threat appears to
lessen and become much less widespread on Tuesday but a marginal excessive rainfall threat remains across the Four Corners states.

Meanwhile, a rather deep low-pressure system across southern Canada
continues to push a frontal system eastward across the Great Lakes
triggering more showers and thunderstorms. A pair of warm/stationary
fronts will focus a corridor of more widespread showers and thunderstorms
from the lower Great Lakes to the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England over the next couple of days. Strong to severe thunderstorms
appear more likely along this corridor during the late-day hours, with a
slight risk of flash flooding forecast for Wednesday. Meanwhile,
additional rounds of thunderstorms are also expected to develop across the north-central Plains moving toward the upper Midwest through tonight near
a meandering front and a wave of low pressure.

By Wednesday morning, rain associated with the next Pacific front is
forecast to reach the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, late-summer heat
reaching into the lower 100s will persist across the central Plains. The
heat is forecast to spread eastward into the eastern U.S. over the next
couple of days with highs reaching well up into the 90s for the interior Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday afternoon. Heat advisories are currently in
effect for a large portion of the east-central U.S.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Sep 01 2026 - 12Z Thu Sep 03 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Western Gulf Coast on Tuesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Western Gulf Coast and the Northeast on Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Norther/Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and
Lower Great Lakes, Northeast, and Northern Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Lower Great Lakes, Northeast, and Northern Mid-Atlantic on
Wednesday...

Monsoonal moisture will weaken slightly on Tuesday, producing showers and thunderstorms with moderate to heavy rain over parts of the Great Basin/Southwest/Central/Southern Rockies. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Great Basin/Southwest/Central/Southern Rockies on Monday.

Tropical Storm EDOUARD is forecast to move northwestward into Southeastern Texas and weaken to a Tropical Depression by Wednesday morning and
dissipate by Wednesday evening. EDOUARD will produce heavy rain over
parts of the Central/Western Gulf Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Western Gulf
Coast on Tuesday and Wednesday. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Also on Tuesday, a front extending across the Northeast westward into the
Great Lakes and then into the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains
will slowly move eastward into the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast by
Thursday. The system will produce heavy rain over parts of the Lower
Great Lakes/Northeast on Wednesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts
of the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Wednesday. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most
vulnerable.

On Wednesday, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop from the Lower Great Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Great
Lakes into the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday into Thursday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, showers
and thunderstorms will develop along the coast from the Southeast/Florida
to the Central/Western Gulf Coast through Thursday morning.

Next, a front will approach the Northwest Coast on Tuesday, producing rain
that will expand inland to the Northern Intermountain Region by Tuesday afternoon and continue into early Wednesday. The rain will continue
through Thursday. Lastly, heat will build over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley and Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday and expand into
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday and Thursday.
In response, Heat Advisories have been posted over the Middle/Lower
Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
435 PM EDT Tue Sep 01 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 02 2026 - 00Z Fri Sep 04 2026

...Tropical Storm Edouard has made landfall near the Louisiana-Texas
coastal border, bringing tropical storm conditions near the coast and
flash flooding threat further inland across eastern Texas...

...Excessive rainfall and severe weather threats slowly progress southward across the lower Great Lakes and northern Mid-Atlantic during the next
couple of days...

...Cool and unsettled weather moving into the Pacific Northwest as next
surge of monsoonal moisture reaches Arizona and New Mexico on Thursday...

...Heat advisories in effect for a large portion of the east-central U.S.,
Deep South, and portions of the Mid-Atlantic; excessive heat warning
across the mid-Mississippi Valley...

September begins with late-summer heat continuing to expand from the
central U.S toward the eastern U.S. as Tropical Storm Edouard makes
landfall near the Louisiana-Texas coastal border Tuesday afternoon.
Edouard is forecast to move northwestward into eastern Texas and weaken
quickly to a post-tropical low pressure area by Wednesday morning.
Tropical storm conditions near the coast where Edouard makes landfall will quickly transition to a heavy rainfall threat along Edouard's path. A
narrow corridor of heavy rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches can be expected
with maximum totals up to 9 inches for parts of the upper Texas Coast
inland through east-central Texas, and potential for 2 to 4 inches in far southwest Louisiana. Flash flooding is likely along this corridor,
especially in low-lying and urban areas. River flooding may also be
possible.

Meanwhile, a low-pressure system across southern Canada continues to push
a frontal system eastward through the Great Lakes. A stationary front
extending southeast from the low center has set up a corridor across the
lower Great Lakes to the northern Mid-Atlantic where repeated rounds of
showers and embedded thunderstorms will pose heavy rain and severe weather threats through the next couple of days. These threats will progress very gradually southward into the Mid-Atlantic by Thursday. Across the
north-central Plains, additional rounds of thunderstorms are also expected
to develop near a meandering front and a wave of low pressure. These
showers and storms are expected to move from west to east toward the upper Midwest through the next couple of days, with a severe thunderstorm threat across northern-central Montana on Wednesday.

A rather deep upper-level trough/low for late summer is forecast to push
inland into the Pacific Northwest, bringing increasingly widespread
unsettled weather deeper into the Intermountain West over the next couple
of days. In fact, below freezing temperatures are possible across the
higher elevations of southern Oregon by Thursday morning. A couple inches
of rain with locally higher amounts can be expected along the coastal
ranges with lower amounts for the lower elevations. Meanwhile, the influx
of the upper trough will begin to pull the next surge of monsoonal
moisture from Mexico further into Arizona and New Mexico by Thursday. WPC
has posted a slight risk of excessive rainfall for southern Arizona on Thursday.

In contrast to the cool weather forecast for the Pacific Northwest,
late-summer heat reaching into the lower 100s will persist across the
central Plains. The heat is forecast to spread farther eastward into the eastern U.S. over the next couple of days with highs reaching well up into
the 90s to around 100 for the interior Mid-Atlantic by Wednesday
afternoon. Heat advisories are currently in effect for a large portion of
the east-central U.S. to the Deep South with new heat advisories posted
for portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Excessive heat warnings are in effect
for the mid-Mississippi Valley where heat indices could reach 110 during
the day.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 AM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Sep 02 2026 - 12Z Fri Sep 04 2026

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of Eastern Texas on Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast on Wednesday and the Southwest on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains and Lower Great Lakes,
Northeast, and Northern Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians,
and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday...

Tropical Depression EDOUARD over Eastern Texas is forecast to move
northward into Northeastern Texas and weaken on Wednesday and dissipate by Thursday morning. EDOUARD will produce heavy rain over parts of Eastern
Texas on Wednesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level
3/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of Eastern
Texas on Wednesday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Monsoonal moisture will start to increase on Wednesday over parts of the Southwest, producing showers and thunderstorms. By Thursday, the showers
and thunderstorms will increase in areal coverage and intensity, producing heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Southwest on Thursday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas being the most vulnerable. Showers and thunderstorms will continue
over the region into Friday. In addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Great Basin and Central/Southern Rockies on
Wednesday and Thursday from the late afternoon into evening.

Also on Wednesday, a front will move eastward into the Northeast and move
out over the ocean by Friday. The system will produce heavy rain over
parts of the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Wednesday. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast on Wednesday.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas
being the most vulnerable.

Moreover, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern
Rockies/Northern High Plains on Wednesday into Thursday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Additionally, showers
and thunderstorms will develop along the coast from the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast/Florida to the Central/Western Gulf Coast through Thursday. The showers and thunderstorms will end by Friday morning.

Next, a front extending from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes moves
into the Northeast on Thursday and continues roughly westward into the
Northern Plains. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along the
boundary over the Northeast westward into the Northern Plains. Showers and severe thunderstorms will develop in the Upper Mississippi Valley on
Thursday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley on
Thursday into Friday morning. Hazards associated with these thunderstorms include frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a
few tornadoes.

Additionally, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday into Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

A front will also move onshore over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday and dissipate by Thursday morning. The system will produce rain over the
Northwest on Wednesday into Friday. Showers and thunderstorms will also
develop over the Northern Intermountain Region on Wednesday and continue through Friday. Lastly, heat will build over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley, the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and the Mid-Atlantic from Wednesday into Friday. In response, Heat Advisories have been posted over
the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and along
the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Wednesday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
158 PM EDT Wed Sep 02 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Sep 03 2026 - 00Z Sat Sep 05 2026

...T.D. Edouard will bring flash flooding and excessive rainfall risk over parts of Eastern Texas into portions of the Southeast through Thursday...

...Severe thunderstorms and Flash Flooding risk over portions of the
Northeast, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Upper Midwest...

...Dangerous heat continues over central and southern Plains and south,
while building into the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic by late week...

The remnants of Tropical Depression Edouard will continue to weaken as it
moves over Eastern Texas and into Northeastern Texas by Thursday morning. Lingering tropical moisture and a residual low-level circulation will
promote scattered showers and thunderstorms. With saturated soils from
previous rainfall, additional rainfall may lead to a continuation for
flooding concerns across portions of eastern Texas. A High Risk (level
4/4) of excessive rainfall has been issued for portions of southeast Texas through early Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. On Friday, the
system continues to weaken but warm tropical moisture will support thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast. Therefore, isolated
flooding concerns continue into Thursday across the Gulf Coast and
portions of the eastern Texas.

Monsoonal moisture will start to increase over parts of the Southwest, producing showers and thunderstorms. By Thursday, the showers and thunderstorms will increase in areal coverage and intensity as the strengthening southerly flow will transport moisture northward, leading to heavy rainfall. With the increase in moisture combined with diurnal
heating, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southwest on Thursday. Expect afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms to continue over the region into Friday.

Meanwhile, an active frontal zone will extend from the northern Plains and Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes and Northeast. Shortwave energy
ejecting from the upper trough will interact with this boundary, while
warm moist air moves northward. This setup will lead to periods of showers
and thunderstorms. The strongest storms will bring moments of heavy
rainfall, severe thunderstorms, hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding
risk across portions of the Upper Midwest and Mid-Atlantic into the
Northeast into early Friday morning. Further west, the frontal boundary
over central U.S. will lift northward and extend into the northern
Rockies, producing showers and severe thunderstorms through the remainder
of Wednesday. The frontal system will strengthen over Intermountain West/northern Rockies producing organized showers through Friday, which
may lead to excessive rainfall/flash flooding over sensitive areas.

The upper ridge over south-central U.S. will maintain dangerous heat
across much of central and eastern U.S. through Friday. Daytime highs will reach between 95-105 degrees across the central and southern Plains,
Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. The combination of above normal temperatures and high humidity will result in widespread Major to Extreme HeatRisk, which may bring heat-related illnesses. Please see WPC's Key
Messages for further details.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
333 AM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Sep 03 2026 - 12Z Sat Sep 05 2026

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of Eastern Texas on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest on Thursday and expanding into parts of the Southern Rockies
on Friday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains and Lower Great Lakes,
Northeast, and Northern Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and Ohio Valley, Central Appalachians,
and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday...

The remnants of Tropical Depression EDOUARD, which moved inland over
Eastern Texas, are forecast to move northward into Northeastern Texas and dissipate by Thursday evening. EDOUARD will produce heavy rain over parts
of Eastern Texas on Thursday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate
Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts
of Eastern Texas on Thursday. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. The Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall will drop to a Marginal Risk (level 1/4)
on Friday and continue over most of the Gulf Coast. In addition,
upper-level impulses along the Gulf Coast will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast Coast and along the Gulf Coast through Saturday.

Also on Thursday, a front will move eastward into the Northeast and move
out over the ocean by Friday. The system will produce moderate rain over
parts of the Northeast /Great Lakes into the Northern Plains on Thursday. Severe thunderstorms will also develop over the area on Thursday.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio Valley and into
parts of the Upper Great Lakes on Thursday into Friday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, a second
area of showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Likewise, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northern Plains /Upper Mississippi Valley on Thursday into Friday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

On Friday, the showers and severe thunderstorms will continue over parts
of the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic on Friday into Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

The showers and severe thunderstorms will continue over parts of the Ohio Valley into parts of the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley and continue over parts of the region through Saturday.

Monsoonal moisture will increase over parts of the Southwest, producing
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms
over parts of the Southwest on Thursday and Friday. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most
vulnerable. The showers and thunderstorms will continue over the region
into Saturday. Additionally, some moisture will move into Southern
California early Saturday morning, producing rain over the area.

Elsewhere, a front over the Pacific Northwest on Thursday will move
eastward into the Northern High Plains and parts of the Great Basin by Saturday. The system will produce rain over the Northwest on Thursday into Friday. Rain and embedded thunderstorms will also develop over the
Northern Intermountain Region through Friday and reduce to showers over
the region by Saturday. Lastly, heat will build over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley, the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and the Mid-Atlantic into Saturday. In response, Heat Advisories have been posted over the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and over parts
of the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Thu Sep 03 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 04 2026 - 00Z Sun Sep 06 2026

...A Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for parts of eastern
Texas through this evening with the remnants of Edouard...

...Thunderstorms with potential severe weather and flash flooding likely
along a front from the Upper Midwest to Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic...

...Monsoonal moisture could cause scattered flash flooding in parts of Arizona/New Mexico for the next few days...

Surface troughing and upper-level energy left over from Edouard is
currently focusing moisture for continued heavy rain in parts of eastern
Texas. A Moderate Risk (level 3/4) remains in place for flash flooding potential with this system. Areas that have already seen copious rain
amounts from the system will be at particular risk. Convection is forecast
to weaken into this evening, with a possible minor uptick late night--but overall weaker than in previous days, as the support for heavy rain
continues to dissipate. Farther east, ample moisture stretched across the
Gulf Coast region to Florida, along with some surface low pressure, will
allow for scattered thunderstorms causing instances of flash flooding
through Friday and Saturday.

Farther north, an active frontal boundary will continue to spark
thunderstorms along it for the next couple days as it meanders in the
Midwest, Great Lakes, and Mid-Atlantic and then slowly sinks southward. Thunderstorm complexes in the northern Plains/Upper Midwest through
tonight have a threat of tornadoes, high winds, and hail. In the Great
Lakes to Mid-Atlantic, strong winds are the primary threat through
tonight, and there is an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) shown by the Storm Prediction Center for this potential across northeast Ohio/western
Pennsylvania embedded within larger Slight Risks encompassing these
regions. On Friday, the primary thunderstorm threat (mostly for high
winds, with some hail possible) is across the central Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic region. Some isolated flash flooding is possible where storms produce higher rain rates and in sensitive places like urban areas. By Saturday, the front sinking south will lead to potentially severe
thunderstorms centered over North Carolina and vicinity.

Monsoonal moisture will be prevalent across the Southwest over the next
several days, producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. WPC continues to indicate Slight Risks (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of Arizona and New Mexico through this evening and again on Friday
for these storms. Urban areas and also dry washes and burn scars will be
most vulnerable to flooding. Farther north, a reasonably strong
upper-level low for this time of year will continue to push a front
through the Northwest, leading to widespread showers and some
thunderstorms, with a nonzero chance of flooding through tonight. Showers
are forecast to continue across the Pacific Northwest to northern Rockies
for late week, but with lower overall rain totals.

Temperatures continue to be well above average for September across most
areas east of the Rockies for the next few days as an upper-level ridge
sets up. Heat Advisories are widespread from the south-central Plains into
the Mid-Atlantic, with Extreme Heat Warnings centered in the
Mid-Mississippi Valley, for temperatures and heat indices well into the
90s and 100s. Warm low temperatures will cause added heat stress to
vulnerable people and infrastructure, while also setting widespread
records for warm minimums. Major to Extreme HeatRisk is widespread. See
WPC's Key Messages for more information on the heat. The Northeast to Mid-Atlantic should gradually see some heat relief as a cold front
progresses south late week into the weekend, but the central U.S. will
remain hot. Meanwhile, temperatures will be below average across the West
given the upper low overhead.


Tate


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Sep 04 2026 - 12Z Sun Sep 06 2026

...Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms with locally heavy rain across
the lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic will slowly shift southward
during the Labor Day weekend...

...Monsoonal moisture could trigger scattered flash flooding in parts of Arizona/New Mexico for the next few days...

...Heat persists across the midsection of the country as cooler air
expands further into the West Coast and the Northeast...

An upper-level trough deepening over southeastern Canada will sustain a corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms stretching from the upper
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic through the next couple of days. The cool air
mass associated with the trough is forecast to advance gradually into the northeastern U.S. against the heat dome anchored over the midsection of
the country through the Labor Day weekend. This will shift the best chance
of severe weather and heavy rain southward from the lower Great Lakes to
the Mid-Atlantic today, mainly across the southern Mid-Atlantic on
Saturday. By Sunday morning, temperatures will dip into the 40s and 50s
across much of the interior Northeast.

Across the South, ample moisture stretching across the Gulf Coast region
to Florida, where weak disturbances travel along a trough of low pressure,
will trigger scattered thunderstorms that could cause instances of flash flooding into the Labor Day weekend.

Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture will be prevalent across mainly Arizona and
New Mexico where showers and thunderstorms will be most active during the late-day hours with locally heavy rain over the next several days. WPC maintains a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall straddling the Arizona-New Mexico border for today. Urban areas and also dry washes and
burn scars will be most vulnerable to flooding. Farther north, a
relatively deep upper-level low for this time of year will continue to
push cool and unsettled weather through the Northwest, where widespread
showers and embedded thunderstorms have a nonzero chance of causing
localized flooding issues by Saturday and into early Sunday.

Temperatures continue to be well above average for September across most
areas east of the Rockies into the Labor Day weekend as an upper-level
ridge remains anchored over the midsection of the country. Heat Advisories
are widespread from the south-central Plains into the Mid-Atlantic, with Extreme Heat Warnings centered in the Mid-Mississippi Valley, for
temperatures and heat indices well into the 90s and 100s. Warm low
temperatures will cause added heat stress to vulnerable people and infrastructure, while also setting widespread records for warm minimums.
Major to Extreme HeatRisk is widespread. See WPC's Key Messages for more information on the heat. The Northeast to Mid-Atlantic should gradually
see some heat relief as a cold front progresses south late week into the weekend, but the central U.S. will remain hot. Meanwhile, temperatures
will be below average across the West given the upper low overhead. In
fact, below freezing morning temperatures are expected across the higher elevations as far south as northern California.


Kong/Tate


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Fri Sep 04 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 05 2026 - 00Z Mon Sep 07 2026

...Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain will
slowly shift southward across the lower Upper Midwest and Mid-Atlantic
during the Labor Day weekend...

...Monsoonal moisture could trigger scattered flash flooding in parts of Arizona/New Mexico for the next few days...

...Heat persists across the midsection of the country while cooler air
expands further into the West Coast and the Northeast...

The forecast remains on track for a deepening upper-level low and
associated cold front over Atlantic Canada to sustain a corridor of strong
to severe thunderstorms and scattered heavy rainfall from the Upper
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic through the first half of Labor Day weekend.
This afternoon, the focus for thunderstorms will roughly extend from
Detroit to D.C. ahead of the cold front, before the severe and heavy rain threat migrates into the Central and Southern Appalachians tomorrow as the front sinks southward. Eventually, the front will settle into the
Southeast on Sunday, leading to scattered thunderstorms capable of
isolated heavy rainfall. Rainfall aside, the frontal passage will also
provide some much needed relief from the heat in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, where high temperatures in the mid-70's and low 80's can be expected by Sunday.

Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture will be prevalent across mainly Arizona and
New Mexico where showers and thunderstorms will be most active during the late-day hours with locally heavy rain over the next several days. WPC maintains a Slight Risks (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall straddling
across Arizona-New Mexico border for today. Urban areas and also dry
washes and burn scars will be most vulnerable to flooding. Farther north,
an unusually deep upper-level low and frontal system will push widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms through the Northwest and Northern
Plains on Sunday, with a nonzero chance of localized flooding issues. Temperatures beneath the upper-low will be quite pleasant across the West
this weekend as daytime highs dip 10 to 20 degrees below normal.

In contrast, oppressive heat will continue through Labor Day in the
Nation's Heartland as an upper-level ridge remains anchored over the
midsection of the country. Heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees and record
warm overnight temperatures will be widespread across the Central/Southern Plains States and Mississippi Valley this weekend. See WPC's Key Messages
for more information on the heat, limit afternoon outdoor activity if
possible, and stay hydrated regardless of your Labor Day plans.

Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Sep 05 2026 - 12Z Mon Sep 07 2026

...Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain will
slowly shift southward across the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and into the
Southeast during the Labor Day weekend...

...A front moving through the western U.S. could trigger heavy rain across
Utah on Sunday...

...Heat persists across the midsection of the country while cooler air
expands further into the West Coast and the Northeast...

A deepening upper-level low in the vicinity of the Canadian Maritimes is bringing a cool air mass deeper into the northeastern U.S. As the leading
edge of the cool air mass pushes against the heat dome across the
midsection of the country, a corridor of strong to severe thunderstorms
with scattered heavy rainfall will be triggered from the Midwest to the
Ohio Valley, central/southern Appalachians, and into the Mid-Atlantic
through the first half of Labor Day weekend. The most active thunderstorms
are expected to be moving through the Midwest to the Ohio Valley this
morning, followed by the central/southern Appalachians and into the Mid-Atlantic later today and into the evening. A slight risk of flash
flooding is forecast closer to the Mid-Atlantic coast later today. By
Sunday, the front will settle farther southward into the eastern U.S. This
will confine the best chance for the stronger thunderstorms and heavy rain across the Southeast U.S. Behind the front, the cool air mass will break
the recent spell of heat in the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, where high temperatures in the mid-70s and low 80s can be expected by Sunday. Morning
lows dropping into the 40s and 50s will bring a first taste of fall across
New England for the latter half of the Labor Day weekend.

Meanwhile, a deep upper-level low continues to move further inland across
the northwestern U.S. where scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms
can be expected through the Labor Day weekend. Farther south, monsoonal moisture will be lifted ahead of a slow-moving front. It appears that the
best chance of showers and thunderstorms will be later on Sunday across
the Great Basin, with locally heavy rain possible from southern Nevada
through Utah, where WPC highlights a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall. Urban areas, as well as dry washes and burn scars will be most vulnerable to flooding. Temperatures beneath the upper-low will be cool
across the West this weekend as daytime highs dip 10 to 20 degrees below normal. In fact, below freezing morning temperatures are expected across
the higher elevations as far south as northern California.

Across the northern Plains, a low pressure system is consolidating ahead
of the upper trough moving into the Pacific Northwest. Rounds of strong thunderstorms are expected to develop across the northern Plains around
the north side of the system. The coverage and intensity of these
thunderstorms and associated heavy rain are forecast to increase during
the latter half of the Labor Day weekend especially across the northern
High Plains as the low pressure system intensifies.

In contrast, oppressive heat will continue through Labor Day in the
Nation's Heartland as an upper-level ridge remains anchored over the
midsection of the country. Heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees and record
warm overnight temperatures will be widespread across the Central/Southern Plains States and Mississippi Valley this weekend. See WPC's Key Messages
for more information on the heat, limit afternoon outdoor activity if
possible, and stay hydrated regardless of your Labor Day plans.


Kong/Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 PM EDT Sat Sep 05 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Sep 06 2026 - 00Z Tue Sep 08 2026

...Rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain will
slowly shift southward across the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic and into the
Southeast during the Labor Day weekend...

...Cool and unsettled Labor Day weekend expected across the western U.S...

...Heat persists across the midsection of the country while cooler air
expands further into the West Coast and the Northeast...

A deepening upper-level low over the Canadian Maritimes is bringing a cool
air mass deeper into the northeastern U.S. As the leading edge of this
cool air mass pushes against the heat dome centered over the country's midsection, rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms with scattered heavy rainfall will be triggered from the Ohio Valley, central/southern
Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. By tomorrow, the front will settle farther southward, confining thunderstorm and heavy rain chances to portions of the Southeast and Gulf Coast. Behind the front, the cool air
mass will break the recent spell of heat in the Northeast and
Mid-Atlantic, where high temperatures in the mid-70s and low 80s can be expected tomorrow. Morning lows dropping into the 40s and 50s will bring a first taste of Fall across New England for the latter half of the Labor
Day weekend.

Meanwhile, a deep upper-level low continues to slowly move further inland across the northwestern U.S. where scattered showers and embedded
thunderstorms can be expected through the Labor Day weekend. As southerly
flow strengthens ahead of this system, monsoonal moisture is forecast to
lift northward into the Great Basin in the vicinity of a slow-moving
front. This pattern will lead to increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms over the Great Basin, with scattered flash flooding possible possible from southern Nevada to central Utah tomorrow. Urban areas, as
well as dry washes and burn scars will be most vulnerable to flooding. Temperatures beneath the upper-low will be cool across the West this
weekend as daytime highs dip 10 to 20 degrees below normal. In fact, below freezing morning temperatures are expected across the higher elevations as
far south as northern California.

Over the Northern High Plains, a low pressure system is forecast to
consolidate and deepen on Labor Day ahead of the aforementioned
upper-trough. This developing storm will interact with anomalous moisture
to yield an expansive shield of moderate to locally heavy rain on the
northern flank of the low over portions of the Northern Rockies. East of
the wrap-around rainfall, an approaching Pacific cold front could drive
strong thunderstorms across the Northern Plains, which spread eastward
into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday as the maturing cyclone drifts across
the Canadian Prairie.

Oppressive heat will continue through Labor Day in the Nation's Heartland
as an upper-level ridge remains anchored over the midsection of the
country. Heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees and record warm overnight temperatures will be widespread across the Central/Southern Plains States
and Mississippi Valley through the rest of Labor Day weekend and next
week. See WPC's Key Messages for more information on the heat, limit
afternoon outdoor activity if possible, and stay hydrated regardless of
your Labor Day plans.


Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Sep 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Sep 08 2026

...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the Southeast for the remainder of the Labor Day weekend...

...Cool and unsettled weather will progress through the Great Basin and Intermountain West with heavy rain emerging across northwestern Montana on Labor Day, followed by strong thunderstorms across the northern Plains
into Tuesday...

...Heat persists across the midsection of the country while cooler air
expands further into the West Coast and the Northeast...

A deepening low-pressure system over the Canadian Maritimes continues to
bring a cool air mass farther southward into the eastern U.S. Showers and thunderstorms triggered near and along the leading edge of this cool air
mass have gradually shifted southward, with the main focus across the
Southeast to the eastern Gulf Coast region for today into tonight. The
Storm Prediction Center is highlighting a slight risk of severe
thunderstorms for portions of the Southeast. Behind the front, the cool
air will break the recent spell of heat in the eastern U.S. with high temperatures reaching only into the mid-70s to low 80s for the next couple
of afternoons. Morning lows dropping into the 40s and 50s will bring a
first taste of Fall across New England.

As the heat dome remains anchored over the country's midsection, a deep upper-level low continues to edge farther inland across the western U.S. A
band of heavy rainfall could set up across Utah today near a slow-moving
front. Urban areas, as well as dry washes and burn scars will be most vulnerable to flooding. Over the next couple of days, a low-pressure
system is forecast to gradually consolidate across the northern High
Plains as the deep upper low edges toward the northern Rockies. This
pattern will lead to increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms
across the northern Rockies to the northern Plains over the next couple of days. The developing storm will interact with anomalous moisture to yield
an expansive shield of moderate to locally heavy rain on the northern
flank of the low over portions of the northern Rockies. WPC is
highlighting northwestern Montana for a slight risk of excessive rainfall
on Labor Day. East of the wrap-around rainfall, an approaching Pacific
cold front could drive strong thunderstorms across the northern Plains, spreading eastward into the upper Midwest, and southward into the central Plains ahead of the trailing cold front on Tuesday as the maturing cyclone drifts across the Canadian Prairie.

Temperatures beneath the upper-low will be cool across the West this
weekend into the new week as daytime highs dip 10 to 20 degrees below
normal. In fact, below-freezing morning temperatures are expected across
the higher elevations as far south as northern California and the Sierra
Nevada peaks. Meanwhile, oppressive heat will continue through Labor Day
in the Nation's Heartland with the unrelenting upper-level ridge over the nation's midsection. Heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees and record warm overnight temperatures will be widespread across the Central/Southern
Plains States and Mississippi Valley through the rest of Labor Day weekend
and into next week. See WPC's Key Messages for more information on the
heat, limit afternoon outdoor activity if possible, and stay hydrated regardless of your Labor Day plans.


Kong/Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
321 PM EDT Sun Sep 06 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Sep 07 2026 - 00Z Wed Sep 09 2026

...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across the Southeast and
Plains States for the remainder of the Labor Day weekend; Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall today in Iowa...

...Cool and unsettled weather will progress through the Great Basin and Intermountain West with heavy rain emerging across northwestern Montana on Labor Day, followed by strong thunderstorms across the Northern Plains Tuesday...

...Heat persists across the midsection of the country while cooler air
expands further into the West Coast and the Northeast...

A frontal boundary bisecting the Central and Southern U.S. continues to
slowly press southward, and is expected to eventually stall as it
encounters the heat dome anchored over the country's midsection. Behind
the front, much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic can enjoy a break from
the heat as high temperatures only reach into the mid-70s and low-80s for
the next couple of afternoons. Morning lows dropping into the 40s and 50s
will bring a first taste of Fall across New England. West of the boundary, showers and thunderstorms are on deck this afternoon as the leading edge
of the front encounters a moist and unstable airmass on the periphery of
the Plains heat dome. Isolated to scattered severe weather and heavy
rainfall are possible this afternoon with any storms that develop across portions of the lower Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, and Central/Northern
Plains. Within this broad area, however, a corridor of enhanced flash
flooding potential has emerged over western Iowa as storms containing high rainfall rates focus over the area and lead to rainfall potentially in
excess of 5". Accordingly, this area has been upgraded to a Moderate Risk
of Excessive Rainfall today, and Flood Watches are in effect through late tonight.

West of the Rockies, a deep upper-level low continues to edge farther
inland across the western U.S. and support cool but unsettled weather
today and tomorrow. Heavy rainfall remains possible today over southern
Nevada and central Utah as strengthening southerly flow directs moisture originating from Hurricane Marie to the south toward a slow-moving front.
Urban areas, as well as dry washes and burn scars will be most vulnerable
to flooding. Over the next couple of days, a low-pressure system is
forecast to gradually consolidate across the northern High Plains as the
deep upper-low edges toward the Northern Rockies. The developing storm
will interact with the anomalous moisture to yield an expansive shield of moderate to locally heavy rain on the northern flank of the low over the Northern Rockies. WPC is highlighting northwestern Montana for a Slight
Risk of excessive rainfall on Labor Day. East of the wrap-around rainfall,
an approaching Pacific cold front could drive strong thunderstorms across
the Northern Plains, spreading eastward into the Upper Midwest, and
southward into the Central Plains ahead of the trailing cold front on
Tuesday as the maturing cyclone drifts across the Canadian Prairie.

Temperatures beneath the upper-low will be cool across the West this
weekend into the new week as daytime highs dip 10 to 25 degrees below
normal. In fact, below-freezing morning temperatures are expected across
the higher elevations as far south as northern California and the Sierra
Nevada peaks. Meanwhile, oppressive heat will continue through Labor Day
in the Nation's Heartland with the unrelenting upper-level ridge over the nation's midsection. Heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees and record warm overnight temperatures will be widespread across the Central/Southern
Plains States and Mississippi Valley through Labor Day and into the work
week. See WPC's Key Messages for more information on the heat, limit
afternoon outdoor activity if possible, and stay hydrated regardless of
your Labor Day plans.


Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Sep 07 2026 - 12Z Wed Sep 09 2026

...Strong to severe thunderstorms expected across the northern Rockies and
the northern Plains, with heavy rain threat across northwestern Montana
today, followed by strong thunderstorms across the north-central Plains Tuesday...

...Heat persists across the midsection of the country while cooler air
expands further into the West Coast and eastern U.S....

...Scattered thunderstorms linger across the Southeast...

As a large high-pressure system brings fine and cool weather across the
Great Lakes and the Northeast this Labor Day, a low-pressure system is spreading unsettled weather into the northern Rockies and the northern
Plains. This is in response to a deep upper-level low getting ready to
eject out of the northern Rockies toward southern Canada. Strong dynamics associated with this weather system will bring scattered to widespread
strong to severe thunderstorms across the northern Rockies to the northern Plains as today progresses. The low-pressure system is forecast to
intensify and move into the southern prairies of Canada by tonight, but
the potent cold front trailing from the low center will bring a round of
strong to severe thunderstorms as the front sweeps through the northern
Plains today, reaching into the upper Midwest tonight. By Tuesday, the
southern portion of the front will lose some momentum, allowing showers
and thunderstorms to develop over the north-central Plains and advance gradually into the upper Midwest by Wednesday morning. WPC is now
highlighting a slight risk of excessive rainfall across Iowa Tuesday to
early Wednesday. In addition, a slight risk of excessive rainfall is
maintained across northwestern Montana for today.

As the cool high pressure system continues to expand southward into the
eastern U.S. and encounters the heat dome anchoring over the country's midsection, the frontal boundary will eventually stall before reaching the
Gulf Coast. This pattern will allow scattered thunderstorms to linger
across the Southeast, including the Sunshine State, through the next few
days. Meanwhile, much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will enjoy a break
from the heat as high temperatures only reach into the mid-70s and low-80s
for the next couple of afternoons. Morning lows dropping into the 40s and
50s will bring a first taste of Fall across New England, with a
reinforcing surge of cool air reaching northern Maine Wednesday morning.

Below normal temperatures beneath the upper low will expand across the
West for the remainder of this weekend into the new week as daytime highs
dip 10 to 25 degrees below normal, except for much of the Four Corners
region. In fact, below-freezing morning temperatures are expected across
the higher elevations as far south as northern California and the Sierra
Nevada peaks. Meanwhile, oppressive heat will continue through Labor Day
in the Nation's Heartland with the unrelenting upper-level ridge over the nation's midsection. Heat indices of 105 to 110 degrees and record warm overnight temperatures will be widespread across the Central/Southern
Plains States and Mississippi Valley through today and into the work week.
See WPC's Key Messages for more information on the heat, limit afternoon outdoor activity if possible, and stay hydrated regardless of your Labor
Day plans.


Kong/Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 PM EDT Mon Sep 07 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Sep 08 2026 - 00Z Thu Sep 10 2026

...Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall expected across the Northern
Rockies and the Northern Plains today, spreading southeastward this week...

...Modest relief from the heat across the midsection of the country late Wednesday; cooler air begins to moderate across the Northeast and Western U.S....

...Scattered thunderstorms linger across the Southeast...

As a large high-pressure system brings fine and cool weather across the
Great Lakes and the Northeast this Labor Day, a low-pressure system is spreading unsettled weather into the northern Rockies and the northern
Plains. This is in response to a deep upper-level low getting ready to
eject out of the northern Rockies toward southern Canada. Strong dynamics associated with this weather system will bring heavy rainfall and
scattered severe thunderstorms across the Northern Rockies to the Northern Plains as today progresses. The low-pressure system is forecast to
intensify and move into the southern prairies of Canada by tonight, but
the potent cold front trailing from the low center will bring a round of
strong to severe thunderstorms as the front sweeps through the northern
Plains today, reaching into the upper Midwest tonight. By Tuesday, the
southern portion of the front will lose some momentum, allowing showers
and thunderstorms to develop over the north-central Plains and advance gradually into the Upper Midwest by Wednesday morning. A Slight Risk of excessive rainfall remains in effect across Iowa Tuesday to early
Wednesday.

As the high pressure system continues to expand southward into the Eastern
U.S. and encounters the heat dome anchored over the country's midsection,
the frontal boundary will eventually stall before reaching the Gulf Coast.
This pattern will allow scattered thunderstorms to linger across the
Southeast, including the Sunshine State, through the next few days. Behind
the front, much of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will begin a gradual
warming trend towards more seasonable temperatures as the cool airmass
begins to moderate, with the exception of northern Maine as reinforcing
cold air arrives Wednesday morning.

Temperatures across the Western U.S. will follow a similar warming trend beginning tomorrow as mid-level heights rise with the departure of the lingering upper-low. East of the Rockies, some much needed relief from the oppressive heat is expected late Wednesday with the arrival of the
trailing cold front from the Canadian cyclone. Until then, however,
daytime highs in the upper-90s and triple digits combined with record warm temperatures will maintain dangerous heat for the next 24-48 hours over
the Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley.

Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Sep 08 2026 - 12Z Thu Sep 10 2026

...Strong to severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall shift southeastward
into the Midwest today, stretching from the Midwest to interior New
England by Wednesday night...

...Modest relief from the heat across the midsection of the country by
late Wednesday as some heat returns to the Mid-Atlantic....

As a large high-pressure system brings fine and cool weather across much
of the eastern U.S., a frontal system trailing from an intensifying low-pressure system across southern Canada has triggered strong to severe thunderstorms scattered across the upper Midwest to the central Plains
early this morning. The southern portion of the front will begin to lose momentum, allowing showers and thunderstorms to develop and move more
slowly across the north-central Plains, gradually advancing across the
Upper Midwest and reaching the Great Lakes by tonight. WPC continues to highlight a slight risk of excessive rainfall across Iowa as SPC maintains
a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for the same general area today into early Wednesday. By Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms are expected to stretch from the central Plains, through the Midwest and Ohio Valley,
reaching into interior New England by Wednesday night as the front
advances gradually to the south and east. WPC now highlights a slight risk
of excessive rainfall across central Missouri into adjacent areas for
Wednesday into early Thursday.

As the high pressure system continues to expand southward into the eastern
U.S. against the heat dome anchored over the country's midsection, a
frontal boundary will remain stalled across the eastern Gulf Coast and the Florida Peninsula. This pattern will allow scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms to linger across the eastern Gulf Coast region, including
the Sunshine State, through the next few days. Meanwhile, much of the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic will begin a gradual warming trend towards more seasonable temperatures as the cool airmass begins to moderate. The
exception will be across northern New England where a reinforcing surge of
cold air is forecast to drop temperatures into the 30s by Wednesday
morning.

Temperatures across the western U.S. will follow a similar warming trend starting today as mid-level heights rise with the departure of the
lingering upper-low. East of the Rockies, some much needed relief from the oppressive heat is in store late Wednesday with the arrival of the
trailing cold front from the Canadian cyclone. Until then, however,
daytime highs in the upper-90s and triple digits combined with record warm temperatures will maintain dangerous heat today into Wednesday from the
central Plains to the mid-Mississippi Valley. Some heat is expected to
return to the Mid-Atlantic as highs climb back into the upper 80s.
Elsewhere, some late-day monsoonal showers and storms will maintain a
marginal risk of flash flooding mainly across Arizona and New Mexico
through the next couple of days, possibly extending into interior
California on Wednesday.

Kong/Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 PM EDT Tue Sep 08 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 09 2026 - 00Z Fri Sep 11 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest on Wednesday and the Ohio Valley on Thursday....

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes on Thursday...

A front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Central Plains and
then westward to the Great Basin will move eastward to the Northeast, then
into the Ohio Valley and then into the Southern Plains by Thursday
evening. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms from the Great
Lakes to the Central/Southern Rockies, then move eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic, the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and into the Central Southern
Plains by Thursday. Heavy rain will develop over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Similarly, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over the Middle Mississippi Valley through Wednesday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

On Wednesday, the threat of excessive rainfall continues over the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle
Mississippi Valley/Central Plains on Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas
being the most vulnerable.
In addition, on Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy
rain over parts of the Southwest. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest on
Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, low-lying areas, and burn scars being the most vulnerable. Furthermore, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over the Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

On Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along and
ahead of the boundary from parts of the Northeast to the Central/Southern Plains. Heavy rain will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians on Thursday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas being the most vulnerable.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop from the Southeast Coast to parts
of the Middle and Western Gulf Coast through Thursday evening. Elsewhere,
on Thursday afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts
of the Northern Intermountain Region/Northern Rockies.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Sep 09 2026 - 12Z Fri Sep 11 2026

...Heavy rain and severe weather threats will spread from the Midwest this morning to interior New England tonight...

...Persistent heat across the south-central U.S. is forecast to get a
break on Thursday....

...Showers and thunderstorms will stretch across the Central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic over the next couple of days with locally heavy rain across
the central Appalachians on Thursday...

A large high-pressure system sliding off the East Coast will give way to
an expanding and intensifying low pressure system currently tracking east across southern Canada. The recent episode of fine and cool late-summer
weather will give way to a resurgence of heat across much of the eastern
U.S. Meanwhile, the cyclone in southern Canada will sweep a cold front
through the northern tier states over the next couple of days. Areas of
heavy rain and severe weather threats near and ahead of the front will
spread from the Midwest and the lower Great Lakes this morning to interior
New England by tonight. As the frontal system pushes against the
persistent heat dome across the South, expect a stretch of showers and thunderstorms from the Central Plains through the Mid-Atlantic over the
next couple of days. Locally heavy rain is possible across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley today, followed by the central Appalachians on
Thursday when a couple of low pressure waves form along the front losing forward momentum. This front will also break the unrelenting heatwave
across the south-central U.S. by Thursday, bringing clouds, occasional
rain, and some embedded thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture will continue to support mainly late-day
showers and thunderstorms across Arizona and New Mexico. Some
thunderstorms with heavy rain will also extend north into Colorado today
in connection with the southern end of the frontal system trailing from
the Canadian cyclone. WPC highlights a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
excessive rainfall over southeastern Arizona into southwestern New Mexico
for today into this evening. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, low-lying areas, and burn scars being the most vulnerable.

Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will linger across the Southeast U.S. closer to the coast and including Florida near a dissipating front. On the opposite side of the country, fine and dry weather will prevail across the Northwest before the next chance of showers reaches the Pacific Northwest
by Thursday as a cold front approaches from the northwest.


Kong/Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EDT Wed Sep 09 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Sep 10 2026 - 00Z Sat Sep 12 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest and Central High Plains on Wednesday and the Ohio Valley on Thursday....

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes on Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday...

A front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the Central/Southern
Plains will move eastward off the Northeast Coast by Thursday evening
while extending westward across the Mid-Atlantic southwestward to the
Southern Plains. The system will produce showers and thunderstorms from
the Lower Great Lakes to the Central/Southern Plains with a risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Farther along the front, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy
rain over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Plains and a second area over the Central High Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains and the Central High Plains on Wednesday
into Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over
parts of the Southwest on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southwest on Wednesday into Thursday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

On Thursday, the threat of excessive rainfall has moved eastward to parts
of the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians through Friday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

A second front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest on Thursday
morning and move inland to the Upper Midwest, roughly westward to the
Great Basin. The boundary will produce rain over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region early on Friday morning. The rain will expand across
parts of the Northern High Plains on Friday. By Friday evening, showers
and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Upper Midwest into the
Central Plains. Moreover, showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Southwest during the afternoon into the late evening through Friday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 AM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Sep 10 2026 - 12Z Sat Sep 12 2026

...Thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall likely from the Central Plains
to the Ohio Valley, and across the Southeast...

...Severe weather possible from the Upper Midwest to Central Plains on Friday...

...Major to Extreme HeatRisk continues across the Southern Plains to the
lower Mississippi Valley late this week...

A cold front will be the focus for widespread showers and thunderstorms
from the Ohio Valley into the Central Plains on Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall and strong to locally severe weather is possible. WPC highlights
areas from western West Virginia into eastern Kentucky within a slight
risk of excessive rainfall, where heavy rainfall fell overnight and areas
are particularly more susceptible. The front sinks into the Southeast and stalls on Friday, with widespread showers and storms expected across the Southeast to Tennessee Valley and parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic with locally heavy rainfall possible.

A cold front dropping into the northern tier of the U.S. will drive
showers and thunderstorms across the Northern-Central Plains and the Upper Midwest on Friday. The greatest threat with this system will be severe
weather and the Storm Prediction Center has a slight risk for severe thunderstorms all along this boundary as it moves through. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible, especially across portions of northern
Minnesota and the U.P. of Michigan.

Upper level ridging parked over the South will continue to bring
widespread heat threats to especially the Southern Plains to parts of the
lower Mississippi Valley through the period. Widespread major to extreme HeatRisk is forecast especially across parts of Texas where a dangerous
heat wave has been relentless. The above cold front into the Southeast on Friday may bring some relief to northern areas, but Texas heat will
continue into this weekend. Monsoonal moisture around the west side of
this heat dome will bring a shower and storm threat to the Southwest
through the period as well.


Santorelli


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
353 PM EDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 11 2026 - 00Z Sun Sep 13 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest on Friday and the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains
on Saturday....

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Northern/Central Plains on Friday...

A front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys
across parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southern Plains on Thursday
will retreat to the Southern Mid-Atlantic by Saturday. The system will
produce showers and thunderstorms from the Southern Mid-Atlantic to the Southern Plains, producing heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians on Thursday into Friday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas
being the most vulnerable.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over
parts of the Southwest on Friday into Saturday morning. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest on Friday into Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, and low-lying areas, and burn scars being the most vulnerable.

A second front over the Pacific Northwest into the Northern High Plains on Thursday evening will move inland to the Upper Midwest to the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains by Saturday. The boundary will produce
rain over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region on Thursday evening
and expand across parts of the Northern High Plains overnight Thursday
into Friday.

Moreover, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Northern/Central Plains on Friday through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

On Friday evening, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains and continue into Saturday evening. The showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts
of the Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley/Central Plains on Saturday into Sunday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, low-lying areas, and
burn scars being the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Southern Mid-Atlantic southward to Florida and westward to the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Friday evening. On Saturday
morning, rain will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and become showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Great
Lakes/Northeast Mid-Atlantic, extending southward to Florida and along the
Gulf Coast.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extreme Heat Key Messages available at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Sep 11 2026 - 12Z Sun Sep 13 2026

...Lingering front maintains unsettled weather across the Lower
Mississippi Valley, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic...

...Northern Pacific systems usher in cool and wet weather over portions of
the Northwest and Northern Tier...

This evening, the weather map over the Lower 48 highlights a stationary
frontal boundary extending from the Ohio Valley into the Southern Plains.
While this front recently provided much-needed relief from the heat to the Nation's midsection, this feature is expected to weaken over the next two
days as temperatures warm again across the South-Central and Eastern U.S.
In fact, a few daily high temperature records could fall in the Southern
Plains this weekend as daytime highs climb into the upper-90s and triple digits. The increasingly warm and unstable air will also interact with the front and a disturbance aloft to yield a broad area of showers and thunderstorms this weekend from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the Mid-Atlantic. Isolated to scattered heavy rainfall and flash flooding will
be the main concern with this activity, particularly with any storms
tomorrow near the Central Appalachians and the I-95 corridor from
Philadelphia to Washington D.C.

Meanwhile, the Northern Tier remains active as a pair of Pacific systems
push two well defined fronts across the Western U.S. and international
border this weekend. Portions of the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper
Midwest are being monitored today for scattered heavy rain and severe
weather potential later this afternoon along the cold front from the lead system. With time, however, expect the focus for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall to shift southward toward the Central Plains this weekend with
the arrival of the leading front. Further west, the second Pacific system
is expected to pivot over the Northwest late Saturday, spreading
beneficial soaking rains across the region through the Northern Rockies.
Some mixed precipitation will even be possible Sunday morning in the
Northern Rockies beneath the base of the second system, with high
temperatures 15-20 degrees below normal expected to close out the weekend. South of this activity, monsoon thunderstorms will continue for the next several days over the Southwest, although coverage of storms could briefly
wane tomorrow. Even so, the potential for isolated flash flooding will
remain each day, especially over vulnerable burn scars, dry washes, or
slot canyons.


Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 12 2026 - 00Z Mon Sep 14 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest and Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday....

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic on Saturday and the Middle Mississippi Valley and Northern/Central Plains on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Upper Mississippi Valley on Friday...

A front extending from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the
Northern/Central Plains and then northwestward to the Northern Rockies
will produce showers and thunderstorms over the Upper Mississippi Valley, producing heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level
2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley on
Friday into Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Similarly, the showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of
the Upper Mississippi Valley. The SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5)
of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley on
Friday through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes.

In addition, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over
parts of the Southwest on Friday into Saturday morning. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southwest on Friday into Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, small streams, low-lying areas, and burn scars being the most vulnerable. Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will continue over
parts of the Southwest into the Central Rockies through Sunday during the afternoon into the late evening.

Moreover, a front over the Mid-Atlantic into the Ohio Valley on Friday
evening will slowly move northward into northern New England by Sunday
evening. The boundary will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of
the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley Friday evening, then move into parts of
the Northeast Saturday into Sunday.

The lifting front will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over two areas. The first will be over parts of the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians and the second over parts of the Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Ohio Valley/Central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic on Saturday
into Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

On Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northern/Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Northern/Central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday
into Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Southern Mid-Atlantic southward to Florida and westward to the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Saturday evening. On Saturday
morning, rain and embedded thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and become showers and thunderstorms over parts
of the Lower Great Lakes/Northeast/Mid-Atlantic, extending southward to
Florida and along the Gulf Coast through Sunday evening.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 AM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Sep 12 2026 - 12Z Mon Sep 14 2026

...Unsettled weather continues across the Central and Eastern U.S. ahead
of a well-defined front...

...Developing low pressure system to produce wet and cool weather across
the Northwest and Northern Rockies...

A well-defined cold front emanating from a deep cyclone located over
Hudson Bay is forecast to migrate across the Central and Eastern U.S. this weekend. The approach of this feature, along with a broad warm front in
the Ohio Valley, is expected to maintain shower and thunderstorm chances
across a broad area from the Northeast to the Plains states for the next
few days. The heaviest rainfall within this broad area is initially
expected to focus over portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and
Northeast later today through tomorrow as a very moist airmass surges
northward with the warm front. Scattered flash flooding is the main
concern in this region owing to the combination of slow storm motions, saturated soil in the region, and urban areas in the path of these storms including the I-95 corridor from Richmond to New York.

Along the opposite coast, a strong Pacific system will approach the
Northwest tonight, leading to beneficial soaking rains and another frontal boundary overtaking the region tomorrow. Farther south, daily monsoon thunderstorms will continue across the Southern Rockies and Four Corners.
As the Pacific system evolves, it is expected to spin up a lee-side
cyclone over the Northern and Central Rockies. By tomorrow morning, a
strong low-level jet interacting with a northward-moving front will cause
the Plains to light up with showers and thunderstorms, introducing a risk
of isolated to scattered flash flooding. Rainfall aside, the frontal
passage(s) should usher in pleasant daytime temperatures over portions of
the Northern Tier, Great Basin, and High Plains with highs in the low-mid
60s and 70s. Unfortunately, the front will fail to make it past the
Oklahoma Panhandle, which means that potentially record-breaking heat will continue for the next few days over portions of the Southern Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley.

Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 PM EDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Sep 13 2026 - 00Z Tue Sep 15 2026

...Showers and thunderstorms continues across the Central and Eastern U.S. ahead of a well-defined front...

...Pacific low pressure system will lead to wet and cool weather across
the Northwest and Northern Rockies...



The upper trough over Upper Midwest/Great Lakes will continue to push the leading frontal boundary into Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and extend across
central U.S., while a warm front lifts into the Northeast. The frontal
boundary will interact with moist unstable airmass, leading to showers and thunderstorm development along the boundaries. The combination of
instability, deep moisture, and forcing, may lead to an elevated threat
for excessive rainfall and severe thunderstorms across portions of the
Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and central/southern Plains through the remainder of today. On Sunday, the frontal system continues to slowly push
into the Northeast, while the trailing portion of the frontal boundary
over central U.S. lifts northward. This will promote a continued threat of severe thunderstorms over portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast
and excessive rainfall over portions of the Northeast and Midwest.

Across the Northwest, a upper trough will move into the region, ejecting another frontal system leading to beneficial soaking rains. Farther south, daily monsoon thunderstorms will continue across the Southern Rockies and
Four Corners, which may lead to isolated flash flooding. As the Pacific
system evolves, it is expected to spin up a lee-side cyclone over the
Northern and Central Rockies. By tomorrow morning, a strong low-level jet interacting with a northward-moving front will cause the Plains to light
up with showers and thunderstorms, introducing a risk of isolated to
scattered flash flooding. Rainfall aside, the frontal passage(s) should
usher in pleasant daytime temperatures over portions of the Northern Tier, Great Basin, and High Plains with highs in the low-mid 60s and 70s. Unfortunately, the upper ridge will continue to persist for portions of
the southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, as potential record-breaking heat will continue to persist through the weekend.



Oudit/Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
407 AM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Sep 13 2026 - 12Z Tue Sep 15 2026

...Showers and thunderstorms continue across the Central and Eastern U.S.
ahead of a well-defined front today...

...Developing low pressure system will drive wet and cool weather across
the Northwest and Northern Rockies, and reinforce unsettled weather in the Plains...

Over the 24 hours, a robust upper-trough over the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes will push the leading edge of a well-defined cold towards the
Eastern Seaboard, while the trailing portion of the front begins to return northward through the Central Plains. This pattern will set the stage for
more stormy weather from the Northeast to the Central Plains today, with isolated to scattered heavy rainfall and severe weather possible this
morning and later this afternoon. By tomorrow, the cold front is expected
to exit into the western Atlantic, leading to improved weather for much of
the East. For the Western and Central U.S., however, a consolidating low pressure system in the Northwest will maintain unsettled conditions for
the next several days, especially over the Plains states near a slow
moving warm front. While some of the precipitation from this developing
system could be beneficial (such as in the Northwest today), daily rounds
of thunderstorms in the Heartland will promote an enhanced threat of heavy rainfall and flash flooding where these storms repeat. Meanwhile, monsoon thunderstorms are expected to persist across the Southern Rockies and Four Corners, with an attendant threat of isolated excessive rainfall.

Rainfall aside, the frontal passage(s) should usher in pleasant daytime temperatures over portions of the Northern Tier, Great Basin, and High
Plains with highs in the low-mid 60s and 70s. Unfortunately, the
upper-ridge will persist for portions of the Southern Plains and Mid-Mississippi Valley, with the potential for record-breaking heat
expected well into the work week.

Asherman/Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
357 PM EDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Sep 14 2026 - 00Z Wed Sep 16 2026

...Strong cold front to spark showers and thunderstorms and possible
severe weather across portions of the Northeast through this evening...

...Strengthening frontal system will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms from the Intermountain West and Rockies to the Plains over
the next couple of days...

...Dangerous heat continues across the south-central U.S. through
midweek...

Moisture streaming northward ahead of a strong, well-defined cold front
pushing across the Northeast will set the stage for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Some of these storms could
become strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts the primary threat. Once
the cold front clears the East Coast, a sprawling bubble of high pressure
will help usher a cooler and drier air mass into the region.

Meanwhile, a low pressure system is expected to gain strength as it tracks
from the northern Rockies to the northern Plains through the day on
Monday. This complex system will bring a couple days of unsettled weather
from the Intermountain West and Rockies to the central and northern
Plains. Plenty of moisture streaming northward ahead of this frontal
system will support widespread showers and thunderstorms, some of which
could produce severe weather and heavy rainfall.

Across the south-central U.S., an upper level ridge will continue to focus dangerously hot weather with highs well into the 90s and low 100s.
Combined with little relief at night, several days of major to extreme
HeatRisk are likely, which would increase the likelihood of heat-related illnesses.


Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Valid 12Z Mon Sep 14 2026 - 12Z Wed Sep 16 2026

...Strengthening frontal system will bring widespread showers and
thunderstorms from the Intermountain West and Rockies to the Plains over
the next couple of days...

...Dangerous heat continues across the south-central U.S. through
midweek...

As calm high pressure sets in over the East, much of our attention will
shift towards the Western and Central U.S. ahead of a strengthening
frontal system forecast to lift out of the Rockies today. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of this deep system will draw a very moist airmass northward into the Heartland today, which will set the stage for
widespread showers and thunderstorms beginning this morning ahead of a
trailing cold front. Numerous instances of flash flooding, and scattered
severe weather is a concern a later today over portions of the Central
Plains as multiple rounds of thunderstorms develop in this very moist and unstable environment. While the cold front is forecast to slowly sink southward, persistent persistent southerly inflow into the boundary will
keep unsettled weather lingering across the Plains, enhancing the flash
flood threat through midweek. Coverage of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will also increase over the Southern Rockies and Four
Corners this week, supporting daily chances of scattered flash flooding.

Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge moving across the Mid/Lower Mississippi
Valley will maintain dangerously hot weather with highs well into the 90s
and low 100s this week, which could set several daily high temperature
records. Combined with little relief at night, several days of Major to
Extreme HeatRisk are likely, which would increase the likelihood of heat-related illnesses.


Asherman/Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Sep 15 2026 - 00Z Thu Sep 17 2026

...A strengthening frontal system will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms from the Intermountain West and Rockies to the Plains and
Upper Midwest over the next few days...

...Dangerous late-summer heat continues across the south-central U.S.
through midweek...

As a sprawling area of high pressure brings a cooler and drier air mass to
much of the eastern U.S. the next couple of days, the weather pattern
turns more active across the western and central U.S. through midweek. Strengthening southerly flow ahead of a deepening low pressure system
tracking into the northern Plains will draw rich Gulf moisture northward
into the Heartland, setting the stage for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the north-central U.S. Scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding along with possible severe weather will be
concerns within this very moist and unstable environment. While the cold
front is forecast to slowly sink southward, persistent southerly inflow
into the boundary will keep unsettled weather lingering across the Plains, enhancing the flash flood threat through midweek. Additionally, increasing monsoonal moisture will lead to more widespread coverage of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms across the southern Rockies and Four Corners
this week, supporting daily chances of scattered flash flooding.

Meanwhile, an upper-level ridge moving across the Mid/Lower Mississippi
Valley will maintain dangerously hot weather with highs well into the 90s
and low 100s this week, which could set several daily high temperature
records. Combined with little relief at night, several days of Major to
Extreme HeatRisk are likely, which would increase the likelihood of heat-related illnesses.


Miller/Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Sep 15 2026 - 12Z Thu Sep 17 2026

...Widespread showers and thunderstorms expected across the Southern
Rockies, Plains, and Missouri Valley over the next few days...

...Dangerous late-summer heat continues across the south-central U.S.
through midweek...

An active pattern for thunderstorms and heavy rainfall continues over the Western and Central U.S. as a slow moving cold front intercepts a very
moist and unstable airmass being pulled towards a deep cyclone in Ontario. Several rounds of heavy rainfall over the Central Plains and Missouri
Valley will support widely scattered to numerous instances of flash
flooding through midweek, and a Flood Watch extends from northeast Kansas
to central Iowa where the heaviest rainfall is expected. Isolated to
scattered severe wind gusts are also possible with the most intense storms
in the Plains today. Across the Southwest and Southern Rockies, a similar
story of overlapping heavy rainfall could unfold over the next few days as monsoonal moisture surges northward ahead of a strong upper-trough.
Meanwhile, a stationary front over the Florida Peninsula will lead to
daily downpours across the Sunshine State, although no excessive rainfall
is expected from this activity.

The aforementioned front will also support a pronounced temperature
contrast over the Heartland today, with high temperatures in the low 70s
and upper 60s expected behind the front in the Central Plains and Midwest, compared to upper 90s and triple digit highs ahead of the front across the Southern Plains and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley. Unfortunately, the front
will quickly weaken after today, which suggests the hazardous heat is here
to stay this week for these areas. Heat Advisories extend from the Texas coastline to the Missouri Bootheel this morning, where several daily high temperature records will be challenged over the next few days with this
heat wave.

Asherman/Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 16 2026 - 00Z Fri Sep 18 2026

...Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the Four Corners, north-central Plains and into Missouri Valley over the next few days...

...Record-challenging high temperatures continue across the south-central
U.S. through midweek...

A slow-moving front will remain the focus for showers and thunderstorms
across the north-central Plains and into the Missouri Valley over the next couple of days. The most active thunderstorms accompanied by heavy
rainfall can be expected through this evening from northeastern Kansas to northern Missouri as a wave of low pressure develops and tracks along the front. WPC maintains a moderate risk of excessive rainfall within this
general area through tonight where a few additional inches of heavy rain
can be expected.

Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture in place across the Four Corners region will
be lifted by an upper-level trough moving onshore into the West Coast.
This weather pattern will bring repeated rounds of showers and
thunderstorms for the Four Corners for at least the next few days. WPC has
a slight risk of excessive rainfall covering much of the Four Corners
states through Thursday, with a moderate risk over southern Arizona on Wednesday. Heavy downpours associated with these thunderstorms could
develop quickly, resulting in flash flooding over highly localized areas.

As we get into mid-September, cooler air from Canada is beginning to dip
into the northern tier states, bringing cooler than normal temperatures. Meanwhile, an upper-level high associated with the persistent heat dome
remains strong across the South, resulting in a pronounced north-south temperature contrast. High temperatures in the low 70s and upper 60s can
be expected north of the slow-moving front in the Central Plains and
Midwest, compared to upper 90s and triple-digit highs ahead of the front
across the Southern Plains and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley. The western
end of the front is expected to lift back toward the north as a warm
front, which means that the hazardous heat is here to stay this week
across the South. In fact, high temperatures reaching into the upper 90s
to lower 100s will challenge daily records from the Southern Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley where Heat Advisories remain in effect.
Meanwhile, a stationary front on the southern edge of the heat dome will
move across the Florida Peninsula, bringing daily downpours across much of
the Sunshine State, although excessive rainfall is not expected from this activity.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Sep 16 2026 - 12Z Fri Sep 18 2026

...Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the Four Corners, north-central Plains and into Missouri Valley over the next few days...

...Record-challenging high temperatures continue across the south-central
U.S. through midweek...

A slow-moving front will remain the focus for thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall across the North-Central Plains and Missouri Valley as it begins
to gradually lift northward over the next few days. In the near-term,
heavy rainfall and flash flooding is anticipated over northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri this morning beneath training showers and thunderstorms within a Moderate Risk area. This afternoon, the front will lift northward
and begin to shift the threat of scattered heavy rainfall towards the
Northern Plains, Upper Midwest, and Ohio Valley through Friday.

The Southwest is equally busy with heavy rainfall as an upper-level trough funnels monsoonal moisture into the Four Corners region. Portions of
southern Arizona and New Mexico have been upgraded to a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall today, with upwards of 2-3" of rain where storms focus.
The coverage of rainfall will lessen tomorrow as a moisture-laden
disturbance pulls away, although widely scattered flash flooding is still
a concern as these storms overlap with today's activity.

As we get into mid-September, cooler air from Canada is beginning to dip
into the northern tier states, bringing cooler than normal temperatures. Meanwhile, an upper-level high associated with the persistent heat dome
remains strong across the South, resulting in a pronounced north-south temperature contrast. High temperatures in the low 70s and upper 60s can
be expected north of the slow-moving front in the Central Plains and
Midwest, compared to upper 90s and triple-digit highs ahead of the front
across the Southern Plains and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley.
Unfortunately, the western end of the front lifting northward means that
the hazardous heat is here to stay this week across the South. In fact,
high temperatures reaching into the upper 90s to lower 100s will challenge daily records from the Southern Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley
where Heat Advisories remain in effect. Meanwhile, a stationary front on
the southern edge of the heat dome will move across the Florida Peninsula, bringing daily downpours across much of the Sunshine State, although
excessive rainfall is not expected from this activity.

Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Sep 17 2026 - 00Z Sat Sep 19 2026

...A moderate risk of flash flooding through tonight across portions of
Arizona and New Mexico...

...Showers and thunderstorms could lead to flash flooding over sections of
the north-central U.S. during the next few days...

...Record-challenging high temperatures continue across the south-central U.S....

A moderate risk of flash flooding is anticipated through tonight across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. This is in response to a low to
mid-level sub-tropical circulation being drawn northward across
northwestern Mexico toward Arizona ahead of a large scale upper-level
trough moving into the West Coast of the U.S. This circulation will lift monsoonal moisture already in place across the Four Corners region to
enhance rainfall amounts especially near the moderate risk areas in
central Arizona and New Mexico where upwards of 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts are possible through tonight. By Thursday, the circulation
is forecast to move northward through Arizona and the Four Corners as it weakens. The coverage and intensity of rainfall is forecast to lessen as
the day progresses. However, more heavy rain may be triggered if this circulation remains stronger than expected. By Friday, the disturbance
should become much diffused but widely scattered flash flooding is still a concern across the Four Corners states with additional showers and thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, a meandering front will remain the focus for thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall across the Midwest to the Ohio Valley through
tonight. Meanwhile, the upper-level energy ejecting from the Four Corners
heavy rain will trigger the formation of a new low-pressure system over
the central High Plains by Thursday night. Expect a round of strong thunderstorms and local heavy rainfall across the Northern Plains Thursday night moving into the upper Midwest on Friday where WPC is highlighting a slight risk of flash flooding.

As we get into mid-September, cooler air from Canada is beginning to dip
into the northern tier states, bringing cooler than normal temperatures. Meanwhile, an upper-level high associated with the persistent heat dome
remains strong across the South, resulting in a pronounced north-south temperature contrast. High temperatures in the low 70s and upper 60s can
be expected north of the meandering front in the Central Plains and
Midwest, compared to upper 90s and triple-digit highs south of the front
across the Southern Plains and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley.
Unfortunately, the western end of the front lifting northward means that
the hazardous heat is here to stay this week across the South. In fact,
high temperatures reaching into the upper 90s to lower 100s will challenge daily records from the Southern Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley
where Heat Advisories remain in effect. Meanwhile, instability associated
with a stationary front on the southern edge of the heat dome will
continue to bring scattered thunderstorms with heavy downpours across much
of the Sunshine State, although excessive rainfall is not expected from
this activity.


Kong/Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Sep 17 2026 - 12Z Sat Sep 19 2026

...Additional flash flooding expected over sections of the Southwest,
Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest over the next three days...

...Record-challenging high temperatures continue across the South-Central U.S....

After a very active day of flash flooding across the Southwest and Great
Basin, the focus for heavy rainfall is expected to shift towards the
Southern Rockies ahead of a moisture-laden disturbance acting to enhance showers and thunderstorms. While the overall coverage of storms will be
lower than yesterday, any flash flooding could be similarly impactful as
high rainfall rates continue amid the anomalous moisture in place. The
same Southern Rockies disturbance will eventually trigger the formation of
a new low-pressure system over the central High Plains tonight. As this
system consolidates in the overnight hours, a developing axis of heavy
rainfall along the front will support the threat of widely scattered flash flooding from the Northern Plains to the Upper Midwest tomorrow and
Saturday.

As we get into mid-September, cooler air from Canada is beginning to dip
into the Northern Tier states, bringing cooler than normal temperatures
behind the aforementioned low-pressure area. Meanwhile, an upper-level
high associated with the persistent heat dome remains strong across the
South, resulting in a pronounced north-south temperature contrast. High temperatures in the low 70s and upper 60s can be expected north of the meandering front in the Central Plains and Midwest, compared to upper 90s
and triple-digit highs south of the front across the Southern Plains and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley. Unfortunately, the western end of the front lifting northward means that the hazardous heat is here to stay this week across the South. In fact, high temperatures reaching into the upper 90s
to lower 100s will challenge daily records from the Southern Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley where Heat Advisories remain in effect.
Meanwhile, instability associated with a stationary front on the southern
edge of the heat dome will continue to bring scattered thunderstorms with
heavy downpours across much of the Sunshine State, although excessive
rainfall is not expected from this activity.

Asherman/Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 PM EDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 18 2026 - 00Z Sun Sep 20 2026

...Heavy rain and flash flooding threats shifting from the southern
Rockies tonight to across the north-central U.S. over the next couple of days...

...Record-challenging high temperatures continue across the South-Central U.S....

After a very active day of flash flooding across the Southwest and Great
Basin, the focus for heavy rainfall will shift toward the southern Rockies
this evening, and across the northern Plains to the lower Great Lakes
during the next couple of days. This is in response to a relatively deep
and slow-moving upper low moving through the Intermountain West toward the Great Plains, spawning low-pressure waves along a meandering front. WPC maintains a slight risk of excessive rainfall for the southern Rockies
through this evening due to additional thunderstorm development in the moisture-laden air mass. Meanwhile, a slight risk of excessive rainfall is forecast to emerge across the northern Plains through tonight. By Friday,
the focus of excessive rainfall will shift eastward across the upper
Midwest, reaching the lower Great Lakes on Saturday. For the East Coast,
more widely scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms can be expected
from New England to the Mid-Atlantic through tonight, shifting farther
south into the southern Mid-Atlantic Friday into Saturday. This is in
response to a Canadian high-pressure system pushing the front farther
south into the eastern U.S. over the next couple of days.

As we head deeper into September, cooler air from Canada is beginning to
dip further into the Northern Tier states, bringing cooler-than-normal temperatures behind the aforementioned low-pressure waves. Meanwhile, an upper-level high associated with the persistent heat dome remains strong
across the South, resulting in a pronounced north-south temperature
contrast. High temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s can be expected north
of the meandering front across the northern tier states, compared to upper
90s and triple-digit highs south of the front across the Southern Plains
and Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley. High temperatures reaching the upper 90s
to lower 100s will challenge daily records from the Southern Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley where Heat Advisories remain in effect. By this weekend, the stronger push of cool Canadian air will begin to show signs
of breaking down the stubborn upper high. Meanwhile, remnant instability associated with a stationary front on the southern edge of the heat dome
will continue to bring scattered thunderstorms with some tropical heavy downpours across the southern half of the Sunshine State. A marginal risk
of excessive rainfall is now in place across southern Florida including
the Keys through Saturday.


Kong/Asherman


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1251 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Sep 18 2026 - 12Z Sun Sep 20 2026

...Heavy rain and flash flooding concerns over north-central U.S. through
the weekend...

...Potential record breaking high temperatures continue across the South-Central U.S. through the weekend...


A progressive upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest will move
eastward across the northern tier, bringing active weather across the
northern Rockies into the Great Lakes into the weekend. The disturbance
will help push the frontal boundary into the Rockies/Plains by Friday,
which will provide the primary forcing for showers and thunderstorms. A
deep plume of warm moisture will accompany the system, while instability continues to increase ahead of the disturbance. This setup may produce
repeated convection, which will lead to heavy rainfall and flash flooding concerns across the Rockies/Plains eastward into the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Midwest. On Saturday, the system continues to progress eastward
into the Great Lakes, while a moist and unstable airmass remains in place
ahead of the system. This will shift the heavy rainfall/flash flooding potential into portions of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and lower Great Lakes through Saturday. Gradually the system moves towards the
Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by late Saturday/early Sunday.

Meanwhile, a portion of the frontal system will drape southward across
portions of the Mid-Atlantic/Southeast, bringing showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. The combination of deep tropical moisture and slow
moving systems, high rainfall rates may lead to excessive rainfall across portions of Florida through Saturday. Across the Southwest and Four
Corners, monsoonal activity will gradually decrease and shift slightly
east by Saturday but residual moisture will continue to produce isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms, particularly over higher terrain.

In contrast to an active northern tier, ridging over the southern Plains
and Southeast will maintain hot and humid conditions across much of the south-central U.S. Temperatures will remain well above seasonal with highs
in the 90s to low 100s, with some locations potentially approaching or exceeding daily record values. With overnight lows remaining well in the
70s, recovery will be minimum. Therefore, widespread Moderate to Extreme HeatRisk will be forecasted through the weekend. Otherwise, near or
slightly below average temperatures will build across much of Western U.S.
and along the frontal boundary across the northern tier.



Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
433 PM EDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 19 2026 - 00Z Mon Sep 21 2026

..There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Upper Great Lakes into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday....

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes and Northern Rockies on
Friday and the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Ohio Valley/Upper Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley and Southern
New England on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Central/Southern Plains on Saturday...

Upper-level energy will help produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy
rain over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes on Friday into Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

On Saturday, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts
of the Upper Great Lakes into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. Numerous flash flooding events
are possible. In addition, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers.

Moving into Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts of the Ohio Valley/Upper Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley/Upper Great Lakes/Middle
Mississippi Valley on Sunday. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Heavy rain will also
develop over parts of Southern New England. Therefore, the WPC has issued
a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of Southern New England on Sunday as well. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

In addition, an upper-level low over the Northern Rockies will produce
showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the Northern
Rockies on Friday into Saturday morning. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern Rockies on Friday into Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will
create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Similarly, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over
parts of the Northern High Plains on Saturday. Therefore, the WPC has
issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern Rockies on Saturday into Sunday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

Moreover, on Saturday, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over
parts of the Central/Southern Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central/Southern Plains through Sunday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
214 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Valid 12Z Sat Sep 19 2026 - 12Z Mon Sep 21 2026

...Heavy Rainfall threat across portions of the Midwest, Ohio Valley,
Great Lakes, Central Plains into Northern Rockies through Saturday...

...Heavy Rainfall threat expands into portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Sunday...

...Severe weather threat across portions of the central/southern Plains
and Rockies, Ohio Valley, and Southeast through the weekend...

A progressive northern stream trough will move eastward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes toward the Northeast through the weekend
bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest
into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and eventually the Northeast. The
trough will push the surface frontal boundary eastward and will drape
across the Midwest into the central/northern Plains and Rockies. The
boundary will provide sufficient forcing, while interacting with deep
moisture and instability, which will support periods of moderate to heavy
rain with locally excessive totals. The heaviest rainfall/flash flooding concerns will be over portions of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Ohio
Valley for Saturday, where the system is expected to produce multiple
rounds convection. Meanwhile, further west, scattered thunderstorms may
produce localized flash flooding over the central/northern Plains into the Rockies through the weekend, with a concentrated area for heavier rainfall rates over portions of Montana for Saturday.

On Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will continue to slowly push further east-northeast into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic and portions of the Northeast. Continuous interaction with warm moisture will reinforce
excessive rainfall concerns over portions of the Midwest and Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes, while expanding the risk into portions of the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic, where soil remains saturated from previous rainfall. By late Sunday into early Monday, the focus for heavier rainfall continues to shift toward the coastal areas over the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Additionally, Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted
a risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and severe winds across portions of the central and southern Plains/Rockies, Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Southeast through the weekend.

Across the Southeast, warm Gulf moisture will support scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Slow moving storms
may produce high rainfall rates, which may lead to isolated flash flooding
over portions of the south Florida. Additionally, residual anomalous
moisture may lead to thunderstorms over portions of Texas and southern
Plains, which pose a risk for localized heavy rainfall through the
weekend.

Otherwise, above average temperatures will remain concentrated across the southern Plains, mid to lower Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast where persistent ridging will support highs in the 90s to lower 100s and warm overnight temperatures. Some locations may approach or exceed daily
records and Heat Advisories remain in affect. Elsewhere, temperatures will trend closer to or below normal behind the frontal boundary.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
323 PM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Valid 00Z Sun Sep 20 2026 - 00Z Tue Sep 22 2026

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Upper Great Lakes, into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley, and
over parts of the Northern High Plains on Saturday....

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Northern/Central Plains and Northern Rockies on Sunday and the
Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains on Saturday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Central/Southern Plains and Central High Plains on Saturday and
Central High Plains and Southern Plains on Sunday...

A wave of low pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley will move
eastward off the Northeast Coast by Monday and produce heavy rain over
parts of the Upper Great Lakes into parts of the Middle Mississippi
Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley through Sunday morning. Numerous flash flooding events are possible. In addition, many streams may flood, potentially
affecting larger rivers.

On Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop along the
front, producing heavy rain over parts of the Ohio Valley into parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley/Upper
Great Lakes/Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday into Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas
being the most vulnerable.

In addition, a second wave of low pressure over the Northern High Plains
on Saturday will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Northern High Plains Saturday into Sunday
morning. Numerous flash flooding events are possible. In addition, many
streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers.

Similarly, showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over
parts of the Northern High Plains on Sunday. Therefore, the WPC has issued
a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern
High Plains on Sunday into Monday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads,
small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

The SPC has also issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Central High Plains and the Central/Southern Plains
through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a
minimal threat of tornadoes.

Likewise, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Central High Plains from Sunday through
Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Additionally, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains from Sunday through Monday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of Florida
and the Southeast through Monday evening.


Ziegenfelder



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
230 AM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Valid 12Z Sun Sep 20 2026 - 12Z Tue Sep 22 2026

...Excessive Rainfall threat across portions of the Midwest, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, Plains, northern/central Rockies through Sunday...

...Chances for severe thunderstorms across portions of the
central/southern Plains into Midwest and Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic through Sunday...

...Severe thunderstorm threat continues into Monday for portions of the
central and southern Appalachians and Southeast...


A upper-level low and associated shortwave energy will continue eastward
into the northern Plains through Sunday. At the surface, the slow moving frontal boundary and shortwave trough across portions of the
Rockies/Plains into the Ohio Valley and Northeast will support scattered showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. Repeated convection may
develop and organized convection may lead to high rainfall rates as the disturbances interact with unstable moist airmass. Therefore, excessive rainfall and flash flooding concerns will prevail across portions of the northern/central Rockies, Plains, Midwest, Ohio Valley, and portions of
the Mid-Atlantic through Sunday, especially where soils remain saturated
from previous rainfall. Additionally, Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted a risk for severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail and severe winds across portions of the central/southern Plains into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

On Monday, the frontal system continues to push southeastward, while moist
and unstable airmass remain entrenched across portions of the Plains, Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. Organized convection may lead
to excessive rainfall concerns over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and southern Plains, while a severe thunderstorm threat shifts into portions of the central/southern Appalachians and the Southeast. Across the Southeast,
showers and thunderstorms are expected, particularly during the afternoon
and evening when instability increases. Localized downpours will be
possible from slow moving storms, leaving areas across South Florida
vulnerable to excessive rain through Monday.

Hot and humid conditions continue across central and southern Plains,
Tennessee Valley, and lower Mississippi Valley, while temperatures
moderate across the northern Plains, Midwest, and Great Lakes behind the
trough and associated frontal system.


Oudit



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Valid 00Z Mon Sep 21 2026 - 00Z Wed Sep 23 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Northern/Central Plains and the Central Appalachians to the Middle Mississippi Valley on Sunday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic and the Southern Rockies/Southern
High Plains/Southwest on Tuesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Central High Plains and Southern Plains on Sunday...

A wave of low pressure over the Ohio Valley will move eastward off the Northeast Coast by Tuesday and produce heavy rain over parts of the Ohio
Valley into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Ohio Valley into parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley through Monday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas being the most vulnerable.

Upper-level energy will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain
over parts of the Northern/Central Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern/Central Plains on Sunday into Monday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable.

In addition, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over the
Central High Plains and Southern Plains on Sunday. Therefore, the SPC has
also issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Central High Plains and the Southern Plains through Monday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes.

On Monday, showers and thunderstorms will continue over parts of the Mid-Atlantic to parts of the Northern/Central Plains and southward to the Southeast/Gulf Coast. Additionally, an upper-level low moving over
Southern California will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of
the Southwest and Central/Southern California.

On Tuesday, another wave of low pressure will move over the Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic, developing showers and thunderstorms
with heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4)
of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. Showers and thunderstorms will
also extend from the Mid-Atlantic southward into Florida.

Moreover, moisture flowing northwestward over Texas into the Southern
Rockies will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts
of the Southern Rockies and Southwest. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Rockies and Southwest. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams,
and low-lying areas being the most vulnerable. The showers and
thunderstorms will extend northward into the Central Rockies/Central High Plains.



Ziegenfelder



Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
219 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Valid 00Z Tue Sep 22 2026 - 00Z Thu Sep 24 2026

...There is a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains/Southwest on Tuesday and Wednesday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic to the Middle Mississippi Valley on Monday...

A wave of low pressure over the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic will
linger over the region and produce heavy rain over parts of the Central Appalachians/Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the region through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying
areas being the most vulnerable. In addition, scattered showers and thunderstorms will extend from the Mid-Atlantic westward to parts of the Northern Plains, Middle Mississippi Valley, and the Southern Plains
through Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Central/Southern Appalachians into parts of
the Southeast on Wednesday.

Upper-level energy and moisture moving northwestward from the Gulf will
produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the Southwest/Southern Rockies. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southwest/Southern
Rockies on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Numerous flash flooding events
are possible. In addition, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers. The flooding may include debris flows in or near recently
burned areas.

On Wednesday, the showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will continue
over parts of the Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains/Southwest.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains/Southwest
on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Numerous flash flooding events are possible. In addition, many streams may flood, potentially affecting
larger rivers. The flooding may include debris flows in or near recently
burned areas. Also on Wednesday, showers and thunderstorms will develop
over parts of the Northern/Central Plains.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Valid 12Z Tue Sep 22 2026 - 12Z Thu Sep 24 2026

...Significant Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Threat across New Mexico and the Southern High Plains through Wednesday...

...Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Threat across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast through Wednesday...

...Severe Thunderstorm Threat across portions of the Southeast through Tuesday...

A upper-level low/trough will dig into the Southwest and interact with
both the Pacific and Gulf moisture, leading to showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the Four Corners, southern and central Plains/Rockies,
and the Great Basin. The combination of deep tropical moisture, sufficient instability, and upper-level forcing will lead to high rainfall rates and excessive rainfall across portions of the Four Corners and western Texas
on Tuesday. Additionally, WPC has issued a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of excessive rainfall for southern New Mexico, while a broader area of Slight
Risk (level 2/4) covers much of New Mexico. The flash flooding threat is expected to increase on Wednesday, as the primary shortwave energy lifts northward through New Mexico. Therefore, the Marginal and Slight Risk for excessive rainfall will expand into central Plains, while a broad area of Moderate Risk will encompass much of eastern New Mexico. The southwest
moisture will gradually transport northeastward along a slow-moving
boundary, bringing showers and thunderstorms across the northern/central
Plains into the Upper Midwest by late Wednesday into early Thursday.

Furthermore, a upper-level troughing over the Great Lakes will gradually
shift eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, while the frontal boundary will settle southward across the southern Plains into the
Southeast, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. A developing coastal low
offshore will help maintain low-level moisture ahead of the slow-moving
frontal boundary, supporting period of showers and thunderstorms from
portions of the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic into the Appalachians and
Southeast. Pockets of elevated instability may develop along the frontal boundary, leading to severe thunderstorm concerns across the Southeast. Additionally, slow storm motions and efficient warm moisture will lead to locally high rainfall rates within the strongest storms, leading to flash flooding concerns over portions of the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast.

By Wednesday, the boundary over the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley will move further south, but shortwave troughs will reinforce another round of
showers and thunderstorms across the area. This will lead to another day
of flash flooding concerns over the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley,
especially over areas where soil remains saturated from previous rainfall. Further south, a moist and unstable airmass will persist across southern Florida leading to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with locally heavy downpours possible through Thursday.

Temperature-wise, a strong surface high will bring colder than average temperatures across the northern/central Plains into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast behind the frontal boundary, while the southern Plains into the Southeast will remain warm and humid.

Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 PM EDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Valid 00Z Wed Sep 23 2026 - 00Z Fri Sep 25 2026

...Significant Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Threat across New Mexico and the Southern High Plains through Thursday...

...Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Threat across portions of the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Central/Southern Appalachians through Wednesday...


A upper-level low/trough will dig into the Southwest and interact with
both the Pacific and Gulf moisture, leading to showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the Four Corners and the Southern/Central
Plains/Rockies. The combination of deep tropical moisture, sufficient instability, and upper-level forcing will lead to high rainfall rates and excessive rainfall across portions of the Four Corners and western Texas tonight. Additionally, WPC maintains a Moderate Risk (at least 40% chance)
of excessive rainfall for southern New Mexico, while a broader area of
Slight Risk (at least 15% chance) covers much of New Mexico. The flash
flooding threat is expected to increase on Wednesday, as the primary
shortwave energy lifts northward through New Mexico. Therefore, the
Marginal and Slight Risk for excessive rainfall will expand into the
Central Plains, while a broad area of Moderate Risk will encompass much of eastern New Mexico. The southwest moisture will gradually transport northeastward along a slow-moving boundary, bringing showers and
thunderstorms across the Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest by
late Wednesday into Thursday.

Furthermore, a upper-level troughing over the Great Lakes will gradually
shift eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, while the frontal boundary will settle southward across the Southern Plains into the
Southeast, Ohio Valley, and Mid-Atlantic. A developing coastal low
offshore will help maintain low-level moisture ahead of the slow-moving
frontal boundary, supporting period of showers and thunderstorms from
portions of the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic into the Appalachians and
Southeast. Pockets of elevated instability may develop along the frontal boundary, leading to severe thunderstorm concerns across the Southeast. Additionally, slow storm motions and efficient warm moisture will lead to locally high rainfall rates within the strongest storms, leading to flash flooding concerns over portions of the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic and
Southeast.

By Wednesday, the boundary over the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley will move further south, but shortwave troughs will reinforce another round of
showers and thunderstorms across the area. This will lead to another day
of flash flooding concerns over the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley,
especially over areas where soil remains saturated from previous rainfall. Further south, a moist and unstable airmass will persist across southern Florida leading to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with locally heavy downpours possible through Thursday.

Temperature-wise, a strong surface high will bring colder than average temperatures across the northern/central Plains into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast behind the frontal boundary, while the southern Plains into the Southeast will remain warm and humid.

Kebede/Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
202 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Valid 12Z Wed Sep 23 2026 - 12Z Fri Sep 25 2026

...Significant Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Threat across New Mexico and the Southern High Plains through Thursday...

...Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Threat across portions of the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and portions of the Southeast through Wednesday...


The well-defined shortwave energy will continue to lift northward into New Mexico, while strengthening upper-level forcing overspreads across parts
of the Four Corners and southern/central Plains. The combination of deep moisture, instability and upper-level forcing, widespread showers and thunderstorms may produce high-rainfall rates that may lead to flash
flooding, especially across sensitive terrain, burns scars, and urban
areas. Therefore, WPC continues to highlight a Moderate Risk (at least 40% chance) of excessive rainfall across portions of New Mexico, a Slight Risk
(at least 15% chance) expanding into West Texas, Arizona, and Colorado,
and a Marginal Risk (at least 5% chance) across portions of the Four
Corners into central Plains. Further north, a slow-moving boundary and the associated moisture plume will progress northeastward from the southern
High Plains into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest by late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing showers and thunderstorms along the boundary.

Although forcing will become less concentrated on Thursday over the
Southwest, the shortwave energy will continue to lift further northward
into central U.S. and interact with the remaining moisture, leading to additional showers and thunderstorms over the Southwest into the central Plains. Repeated convection/training will bring another day of flooding concerns, particularly over areas with saturated soils from preceding
rainfall. Therefore, a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall continues over portions of the Southwest, while a Marginal Risk expands into the central/southern Plains.

The upper-level trough over the Great Lakes will continue to shift
eastward and the slow-moving frontal boundary continues to push southward across the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast, while the surface troughs
continue to maintain a moist and unstable environment through Wednesday. Additionally, a coastal low offshore will bring onshore flow and low-level moisture, supporting periods of showers and thunderstorms from portions of
the Ohio/Tennessee Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Southeast. Sufficient warm moisture and slow-moving storms may lead to flash flooding concerns across portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. Furthermore, localized instability may develop along the surface trough, leading to severe thunderstorm concerns across portions of the Tennessee Valley. Further south, a moist and unstable airmass will persist across southern Florida leading to showers and thunderstorms that may produce
heavy downpours, leading to flooding concerns through Wednesday.

Otherwise, a strong surface high will bring will bring colder than average temperatures across the northern/central Plains, Northeast, and
Mid-Atlantic, with highs generally in the 60s. Across the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies, above normal temperatures will begin to
cool as showers develop by late week.


Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 PM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Valid 00Z Thu Sep 24 2026 - 00Z Sat Sep 26 2026

...Significant Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Threat across New Mexico and the Southern High Plains through tomorrow...

...Developing coastal low spreads coastal flooding, rip currents, wind
gusts, and heavy rain along the East Coast this week...

This afternoon, satellite imagery depicts a plume of tropical moisture streaming northward into the Southwest and Southern High Plains in between
a trough over Baja California, and an upper-high in the western Gulf. The persistence of this pattern will fuel the threat for impactful flash
flooding over portions of Central New Mexico and the Southern Plains today
and tomorrow, especially in light of yesterday's rainfall. The greatest coverage of heavy rainfall and flash flooding is expected later today into
the overnight hours, where some areas could see storm total rainfall of
2-4" on top of what fell yesterday. As such, locally significant and life threatening impacts are possible, particularly across sensitive terrain,
urban areas, and burn scars. Tomorrow, rainfall coverage will decrease somewhat, although significant flash flooding certainly remains possible
as any additional rain atop inundated soils will quickly translate to
runoff. Accordingly, Flood Watches are in affect through Thursday evening. Further to the east, Sufficient moisture and slow-moving storms may lead
to flash flooding concerns across portions of the Ohio/Tennessee Valley
into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along an inverted trough axis this afternoon.

Meanwhile, a strong coastal low is expected to rapidly spin up in the
western Atlantic over the next 24-36 hours and approach southern New
England by Friday. This system will usher in a swath of hazardous weather
to portions of the East Coast, including significant coastal flooding, rip currents, wind gusts in excess of 45 mph, and heavy rainfall. Coastal
residents are encouraged to heed local National Weather Service forecasts, warnings, and the latest WPC Key Messages for this system at
wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Another strong system is forecast over the Pacific Northwest late
tomorrow, which will usher in soaking rains through Friday. As this
system intensifies, expanding coverage of showers and thunderstorms will support at least an isolated risk of heavy rainfall over the Heartland on Friday. In its wake, cooler than average temperatures will begin to set in
over the Northern Tier by Friday-Saturday.


Asherman/Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 12Z Thu Sep 24 2026 - 12Z Sat Sep 26 2026

...Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Threat across Southwest into central Plains
through Friday...

...Developing strong coastal low brings coastal flooding, rip currents,
wind gusts, and heavy rain along the East Coast into the weekend..

The upper-level trough will remain over the Southwest on Thursday as
tropical moisture continues to move northeastward towards the central
Plains. The associated plume of moisture will gradually shift east.
Large-scale forcing has diminished compared to the previous days, which
will result in less widespread precipitation, but instability and embedded shortwave energy will support scattered showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday. Portions of New Mexico and Texas will remain sensitive to
additional rainfall due to saturated soils from previous rainfall. With expected high rainfall rates, WPC continues to highlight a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over portions of New Mexico into portions of the south
and central Plains. Additionally, a broad Marginal Risk covers much of the
Four Corners into central Plains as the trough will also support isolated
to scattered storms, with locally heavy rainfall possible, across the
region. By Friday, an axis of broad moisture and instability will extend
into the Midwest, leading to high rainfall rates and flash flooding
concerns from portions of the Southwest, south/central Plains, and
Midwest. Across the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms through early Saturday morning as instability and moisture continues to move eastward.

Over eastern U.S., a inverted trough will continue to bring isolated
showers and thunderstorms across portions of the the Ohio/Tennessee
Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and coastal areas on Thursday. Furthermore, the
strong coastal low over western Atlantic will continue to intensify by
late week and will bring strong onshore flow across the Mid-Atlantic
northward into the New England by the weekend. Expect showers to develop
across the coastal areas by Friday and becoming heavier and more
persistent by late Friday into early Saturday. Prolonged rainfall could
produce locally high rainfall total, particularly across southern New
England and eastern Massachusetts. Additionally, expect wind gust in
excess of 45 mph, moderate to major coastal flooding, high surf, rip
currents, and beach erosion. Please see the latest WPC Key Messages for
this system at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

A strong Pacific shortwave will deepen as it moves into the Pacific
Northwest late Thursday. Sufficient moisture and frontal forcing will
result in a period of widespread showers across Washington and Oregon and gradually into the Northern Rockies by Friday. With the arrival of cooler
air, possible snow accumulations may occur over the highest elevations
within the northern Rockies and Cascades.



Oudit


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
430 PM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 25 2026 - 00Z Sun Sep 27 2026

...A strong coastal low will bring coastal flooding, rip currents, wind
gusts, and heavy rain along the East Coast into the weekend..

...Heavy rainfall/flooding threat from Arizona to the central High Plains through tonight will begin to gradually lessen on Friday...

An upper-level trough digging into the eastern U.S. will interact with a
cool air mass sliding east into the western Atlantic to develop a deep
coastal cyclone just off the East Coast over the next few days. The
cool air will be moistened and lifted by the digging upper trough as a
large high pressure system feeds that cool air across the still warm
waters of the western Atlantic. The result will be a rather strong
cyclone that will bring widespread strong to gale-force winds up the East
Coast of the U.S. through the next few days. Considerable uncertainty
remains regarding this cyclone's track, but models agree that the cyclone center will approach and then stall just off southeastern New England
Friday and into the weekend. Much of Friday could remain rain free along
the East Coast but cool and damp northeasterly winds will continue to strengthen as the storm deepens offshore. Steady rain may hold off until Friday night across southeastern New England before spreading gradually westward into southern New England by Saturday morning. Additionally,
expect wind gusts in excess of 45 mph, moderate to major coastal flooding,
high surf, rip currents, and beach erosion. Please see the latest WPC Key Messages for this system at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Meanwhile, monsoonal moisture across the Four Corners will be lifted ahead
of an upper-level trough moving onshore into Baja California, bringing a moderate risk of flash flooding over south-central New Mexico and a slight
risk of flash flooding through the southern Rockies to the southern High
Plains through tonight. The associated plume of moisture will gradually
shift east together with the upper trough, allowing the heavy rain threat
to gradually diminish on Friday for the southern Rockies to the southern
High Plains. However, a slight risk of excessive rainfall is forecast for southeastern New Mexico due to saturated soils from previous
rainfall. Friday into Saturday morning should see moderate to locally
heavy rain developing and meandering over the central Plains toward Iowa
and Missouri ahead of a low-pressure wave and a stationary front.

A strong Pacific shortwave will deepen as it moves into the Pacific
Northwest late today. The strong dynamics associated with this system will result in widespread showers across Washington and Oregon reaching the
coast later today and through the interior Pacific Northwest on Friday.
With the arrival of cooler air, wet snow may occur over the highest
elevations within the northern Rockies and Cascades.


Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 12Z Fri Sep 25 2026 - 12Z Sun Sep 27 2026

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southern High Plains on Friday...

...There is a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Southern New England on Saturday and Sunday...

Upper-level energy and moisture moving northwestward from the Gulf will
produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Friday. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts
of the Southern High Plains. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, narrow canyons/gullies, and burn scars the most vulnerable. The threat of
heavy rain will end on Saturday over this portion of the country. Showers
and thunderstorms will continue over parts of the Southern Rockies,
Southern High Plains, and Central Plains through early Saturday morning.
As moisture continues to stream northward over the Plains, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Central/Southern Plains and
the Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on Saturday into Sunday morning.

In addition, a front moving over the Pacific Northwest will produce rain
with embedded thunderstorms over the Northwest into the Northern
Intermountain Region with snow at the highest elevations on Friday.

Moreover, low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic Coast will move northward to
near Southern New England on Saturday into Sunday. The system will produce heavy rain over portions of New England on Saturday and Sunday. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall with
heavy rain over parts of Southern New England on Saturday and Sunday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
403 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 00Z Sat Sep 26 2026 - 00Z Mon Sep 28 2026

...Strong nor'easter off the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will bring
significant coastal flooding, rip currents, powerful wind gusts, and heavy
rain to the region this weekend...

...Rain and mountain snow continues into Saturday for the Pacific
Northwest as a storm system moves through...

...Showers and thunderstorms will lead to flash flooding and severe
weather risks across parts of the central U.S. the next couple of days..

A rapidly strengthening nor'easter in the western Atlantic will bring significant coastal impacts to much of the Eastern Seaboard through this weekend and into early next week. As the low pressure center tracks
northward towards Long Island, rain will expand across the Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast through tonight and into Saturday. Rain will become heavy at times across southern New England where several inches may lead to inland flooding. Rain will continue to wrap around the system through Sunday as
the storm approaches the New Jersey coast before looping to the northeast
early next week. In addition to the rain, wind gusts in excess of 50 mph
are likely for eastern Long Island and southeastern New England, which
will lead to power outages and tree damage in some areas. These
persistently strong onshore winds combined with high surf and high
astronomical tides will likely result in widespread major coastal flooding through the weekend. Significant inundation in low-lying areas is likely
near the shore. Dangerous rip currents and beach erosion will also be
major concerns. Please see the latest WPC Key Messages for more
information on this system at wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Elsewhere across the country, a Pacific storm will continue to bring
widespread low elevation rain and high elevation snow to parts of the
Pacific Northwest tonight into Saturday. Meanwhile farther east, surging moisture and instability will lead to numerous showers and thunderstorms
from the southern and central Plains to parts of the Mid and Upper
Mississippi Valley the next couple of days. Localized to scattered
instances of flash flooding will be possible, and isolated severe weather
is not ruled out.


Miller


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

--- MBSE BBS v1.1.7.2 (Linux-x86_64)
* Origin: Outpost BBS * Johnson City, TN (618:618/1)