AWUS01 KWNH 231255
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-231830-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1363
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
854 AM EDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Areas affected...Much of New Mexico...Portions of West TX
Panhandle & Portions of Northwest TX and Western OK Panhandles...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 231300Z - 231830Z

SUMMARY...Prolonged moderate rain with embedded isolated weak
cores capable of .5-"/hr to maintain longer-term flooding.
Remaining instability along the eastern edges of the cyclone to
continue narrow convective cores capable of 1-1.25"/hr resulting
in spots of 2-2.5" and best chances for scattered flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows strong shortwave with classic
baroclinic leaf/comma shape across the Desert Southwest entering S
NM from Chihuahua with regional RADAR already depicting the
MCV/mid-level circulation well, currently southwest of El Paso.
The dPVA and broad right entrance to the strengthening downstream
upper-level jet provide the broad baroclinic ascent to maintain
moderately heavy shield precipitation along and downstream through
the upper Rio Grande Valley and mainly westward across western NM.

Core of deep layer moisture continues to be advected north and is
generally near the western TX Panhandle into south-central NM at
this time with expanding 1.25" TPW across much of the lower
elevations and already over 1.5" in W TX pushed by strong winds
(20-25kts at 850 from SE, 25-35kts at 700 from S). As such CIRA
LVT values are fairly impressive if not obstructed by active rainfall/attenuation, with 850-700 and 700-500mb layers both shows
broad 75-125 kg/m/s values, along and east of 106W. So while
conditionally unstable air is more limited, there remains a swath
of 250-500 J/kg of CAPE, increasing steadily south and eastward,
with max pockets of MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg in the upwind edge of
the main shortwave in W TX and another over east-central NM near
Clovis. Strong convergence and dynamic ascent should allow for
isolated to scattered embedded convective elements capable of
1"/hr within these cores. Given compromised, recently flooded
areas across S NM/W TX, this may maintain/continue flooding
concerns, though new flashy/rapid rise pluvial flooding conditions
would be less likely or very widely spread to those embedded
higher intensity cores, which will be most likely near and
southeast of the MCV.

Regional RADAR and RAP analysis denote a secondary weaker but
still effective shortwave over northeast NM, slowly shifting
north-northeast, this wave supports a warm-advective type wing to
the ascent pattern across NE NM into the NW TX Panhandles. Solid
surface to 850mb southerly flow will continue to isentropically
ascend, utilizing the enhanced area of 1000 J/kg MUCAPE to support
north-south oriented convective lines/elements that may repeat
with rates of 1-1.25"/hr. This may support an area of enhanced
totals near 2-2.5" and may allow for an incident or two of
localized flash flooding to occur.

Overall, broader areal flooding is likely to continue across the
area of concern, but the localized incidents of rapid rise/flash
flooding are going to be more isolated and considered possible
through the morning lull in instability.

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36920346 36750226 35470216 34740311 33970357
33180386 32200414 30310474 31060584 31640674
31750813 33610822 35060768 36300638 36740487

$$
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