AWUS01 KWNH 241246
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-241800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1374
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
845 AM EDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Areas affected...Western KS...Adj SW NEB...Western OK/NW TX
Panhandles...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 241245Z - 241800Z

SUMMARY...A few remaining embedded convective elements with rates
up to 1-1.25"/hr falling across areas already pre-saturated may
result in a few localized increased run-off flooding concerns with
isolated reaggrivation to be considered low end flash flooding
through the morning hours, but for most areas rainfall will be
beneficial.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic shows slow transition of
rainfall pattern to broader moderate (.5"/hr) shield precipitation
pattern downstream of an increasingly tighter mid-level
circulation/MCV along the central CO/KS border; though along the
eastern/upwind edge there remain low slope isentropically forced
weaker convective elements given the remaining strong 30-35kt
southeasterly inflow. This inflow maintains some modest remaining conditionally unstable but only around 250 J/kg across the main
shield, but still a 1000 J/kg pocket across SW KS/OK Panhandle.
Upstream there is a secondary wave with a more traditionally bowed
convective arch lifting northeast out of NE NM toward this
instability pocket. Convergence from backed low-level flow
intersects and scattered developing convection is filling in.

HRRR and other reasonable Hi-Res CAMs suggest this remains the
best area for enhanced convection through the diurnal lull in instability/activity through late morning. Available 1.5-1.75"
total PWats and the tilted slope suggest slightly reduced
potential rate around 1-1.25"/hr. Though FFG values are lower
across SW KS, likely due to earlier 2-3"+ totals, additional
1.5-2.5" totals crossing the area (as well as compromised areas in
the OK/TX Panhandles) will have the greatest potential for low-end
rapid rise or reaggrivation of flooding conditions.

Elsewhere, the prolonged moderate rainfall nature within the broad
shield precipitation from far southwest NEB into NW KS is more
than likely going to be mostly beneficial, though localized
embedded convective elements bringing hourly totals near .75-1"
could be a low end problem as well mainly near urban or prone
streams/creeks in the region

Gallina


ATTN...WFO...AMA...DDC...GID...GLD...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40260034 40169930 39359927 38210044 37170125
35990179 35660225 35840280 36780292 37600275
39090222 39990137

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)