772
AXNT20 KNHC 311046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jan 31 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a ridge
over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low is sustaining
strong to gale force NE-E winds across the south-central
Caribbean. Winds will diminish below gale-force late this morning.
These winds will pulse to gale force each night and early morning
offshore of Colombia through Tue night. Seas are forecast to
build to around 14 ft with the strongest winds.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will progress
southeastward through the Gulf of Mexico today and on Sat. Winds
will briefly reach gale force in the southwestern Gulf offshore
of Veracruz this evening, with strong winds occurring through
early Sat. Locally very rough seas will accompany these winds.

Gale Warning E of 35W: Robust ridge in the far NE Atlantic forces
strong to gale force N winds in the Meteo France marine zones of
Agadir and Tarfaya. The forecast calls for North 8 in the
Beaufort wind scale, with severe gusts, but mainly in the far E of
the above mentioned marine zones. Mariners can expect rough to
very rough seas in these waters. This forecast is valid until 01/0000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W and continues west-southwestward to 04N15W.
The ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed south of 05N and between 20W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information regarding
a Gale Warning in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico offshore of Veracruz.

A cold front extends from SW Louisiana to 22N98W in northern
Mexico. A few showers are seen ahead of the frontal boundary. The
pressure gradient between lower pressures in Mexico and the
subtropical ridge centered between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda
result in fresh to locally strong southerly winds between 85W and
93W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft, with the highest seas
occurring north of Yucatan. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and
moderate seas are found in the Florida Straits. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds will
occur across the central and eastern Gulf this morning as the
pressure gradient strengthens between a cold front moving through
the NW Gulf and building high pressure over the western Atlantic.
Winds may pulse to strong speeds in the central Gulf. Winds will
turn to the NW to NE behind the aforementioned cold front, with
fresh to locally strong winds possible today as the front moves
southeastward. Winds will briefly reach gale force in the
southwestern Gulf offshore of Veracruz this evening, with strong
winds occurring through early Sat. Locally very rough seas will
accompany these winds. The front will stall then dissipate this
weekend, and ridging will build over the basin, supporting gentle
to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the Gulf this
weekend into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section for information regarding
a Gale Warning near the coast of Colombia.

Gale force winds are occurring offshore of Colombia with
associated seas to 14 ft. Moderate to fresh E winds are noted
across the basin, with strong winds occurring through the Gulf of
Honduras, in the lee of Cuba, through the Windward Passage and
downwind of Hispaniola. Moderate to rough seas are noted across
the region, with the highest seas occurring in the south-central Caribbean.

For the forecast, pulsing gale force winds will occur offshore of
Colombia each night and morning through the middle of next week
as a tight pressure gradient prevails between low pressure over
Colombia and high pressure in the western Atlantic. Widespread
moderate to fresh trades are expected across much of the
Caribbean, with winds pulsing to strong speeds across the central
basin, through the Windward Passage, downwind of Hispaniola and in
the lee of Cuba. Rough seas will occur across the central and
southwestern Caribbean, with localized very rough seas near the
strongest winds. Elsewhere, residual E swell in the tropical
Atlantic waters will combine with a new N swell this weekend,
promoting locally rough seas east of the Windward and Leeward
Islands and their passages into the Caribbean through the middle
of next week. Moderate seas will prevail across the remainder of the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is entering the northern forecast waters south of
Bermuda and another front extending from 31N47W to 25N56W,
followed by a surface trough to eastern Cuba. A few showers are
noted near these boundaries. The rest of the SW North Atlantic,
west of 55W, is dominated by a strong subtropical ridge centered
between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda. Fresh to strong easterly trade
winds are occurring south of 25N and west of 55W. The strongest
winds are found at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas in
the area described are 5-8 ft. Northerly swell is producing rough
seas north of 28N and between 50W and 68W. Elsewhere west of 55W,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

The rest of the tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a
1036 mb high pressure system between the Azores and Madeira
Islands. The tight pressure gradient between this ridge and lower
pressures in NW Africa and deep tropics result in fresh to near
gale-force N-NE winds south of a line from 31N29W to 20N50W and
east of 50W. These winds are sustaining rough to very rough seas,
with the highest seas occurring north of the Cabo Verde Islands
and between the Canary Islands and Morocco. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are evident south of 20N
and between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. In the remainder of the
basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, building high pressure over the western
Atlantic will support increasing moderate to fresh E to NE winds
and building seas north of 20N today. A tightening pressure
gradient between the aforementioned ridge and low pressure moving
eastward through the United States will lead to fresh to strong S
to SW winds offshore of Florida, generally north of 28N and west
of 65W, this afternoon through Sat morning. Winds will diminish by
Sat afternoon in this region as the low moves offshore and lifts
to the northeast. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E winds and rough
seas will continue south of 22N through the beginning of next
week. Looking ahead, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas
are forecast for the waters north of 22N for Sun into early next week.

$$
ADAMS
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315
AXNT20 KNHC 131032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Feb 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a high
pressure ridge across the western Atlantic along 29N and low
pressure over northwestern Colombia will continue to support
strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, pulsing to gale
force early this morning again again tonight near the coast of NW
Colombia. Rough to very rough seas are expected near and to the
west of the highest winds.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from SE
Louisiana to just south of the Texas-Mexico border. This cold
front will stall Fri morning from near Tampa Bay to near Veracruz,
Mexico. Strong winds will follow the front, with winds reaching
gale force this evening offshore Tampico, Mexico and continuing
overnight. Seas of 12 to 14 ft can be expected with the gales.
Conditions will improve Fri as the stalled front weakens and
eventually lifts north as a warm front.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic through the coast
of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to
00N29W. The ITCZ extends from 00N29W to the coast of Brazil near
00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present within 90 nm of
both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for portions of the western Gulf of
Mexico. Please see the Special Feature Section above for information.

A cold front extends from SE Louisiana to just south of the
U.S-Mexico border. Fresh to strong NE winds follow the cold front,
along with seas building to 5 to 7 ft. Fresh southerly flow is
present for the remainder of the basin ahead of the front, with 4
to 7 ft seas. A band of pre-frontal moderate convection has
developed from just offshore the mouth of the Mississippi River to
near Pensacola, Florida. Otherwise, no convection is occurring in the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will stall Fri,
then lift northward and out of the area Fri night into Sat.
Another cold front will move offshore Texas Sat night, bringing
another round of strong northerly winds. Gales are possible
offshore Veracruz, Mexico, Sun afternoon and night behind this front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect off the coast of Colombia. Please
read the Special Feature Section for details.

The basin remains under the influence of an expansive 1030 mb
high pressure system centered over the north-central Atlantic. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian low forces
fresh to strong winds over much of the rest of the Caribbean.
Seas in these waters are 6 to 10 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a high pressure
ridge across the western Atlantic along 29N and low pressure over
northwestern Colombia will support strong trade winds across the
central Caribbean pulsing to gale force each night and early
morning near the coast of NW Colombia through early Fri morning.
Rough to very rough seas are expected near and to the west of the
highest winds. Fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are
expected across the remainder of southwestern and central
Caribbean into the weekend, with winds pulsing to strong speeds
through the Atlantic Passages, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and S of
Hispaniola. Atlantic high pressure will move to near 55W tonight
through early Fri, briefly shifting the zone of strong trade winds
and rough seas across the eastern Caribbean and Tropical North
Atlantic waters. Looking ahead, Atlantic high pressure will begin
to shift eastward Sun night through early Tue, leading to
decreasing winds and seas across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends into the tropical Atlantic near 31N30W
to 28N45W. Moderate northerly winds and moderate to rough seas
are evident behind the frontal boundary. The rest of the basin
is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge located in the north-
central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and
lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to strong
easterly trade winds south of 23N. These winds are supporting
moderate to rough seas. The strongest winds and highest seas are
found south of 22N and west of 35W. Fresh southerly winds and
moderate seas are noted off NE Florida. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong trade winds
will prevail south of 25N through the weekend as the Atlantic
ridge persists along 29N-30N. Associated easterly swell will also
lead to rough seas S of 22N through the weekend. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail N of 25N through tonight, except for
just offshore NE Florida, where some SW fresh to locally strong SW
flow has developed. On Fri, a cold front will move into NW
waters, S of 30N and W of 65W, bringing fresh to strong NE winds
and rough seas behind it. The cold front will still east across
northern waters through the weekend. Another cold front will exit
the SE U.S. late Sun and stretch from Bermuda to the Florida
Straits by late Mon.

$$
Konarik
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395
AXNT20 KNHC 132251
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Feb 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a high
pressure ridge across the western Atlantic along 30N and low
pressure over northwestern Colombia will continue to support
strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, pulsing to gale
force again tonight into early Friday morning near the coast of
NW Colombia. Rough to very rough seas are expected near and to the
west of the highest winds.

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the
Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to 24N96W to 20N97W. The front will
continue to move SE reaching from near Tampa Bay to 24N96W to
just S of Veracruz by tonight, then begin to drift southeastward.
Strong N to NE winds will prevail behind the front, with gales
developing this evening offshore Tampico, Mexico through early Fri
morning. Peak seas of 12 to 14 ft can be expected along with the
gales. Conditions will improve Fri as the stalled front weakens
and eventually lifts north as a warm front.

Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast, issued by
the National Hurricane Center, at the website: https://urldefense.com/v3/__htt p://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!5moO7Y6mXh_03B7f9d2Yh8YAT9 kOUwkvPNuBbURkdxb6ufrokN0nz765f76FKh3EUYExVHdC8U7xARxzMxWKQPjPidg$ , for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 12N16W and
continues southwestward to 01N29W. The ITCZ then extends from
01N29W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate
convection is present within 200 nm of both sides of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A Gale Warning is in effect for portions of the western Gulf of
Mexico. Please see the Special Feature Section above for
information.

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N85W to
24N96W to 20N97W. Strong to near-gale force N winds follow the
cold front, along with seas building to 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to
fresh SE flow is present for the remainder of the basin ahead of
the front, with 4 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast, the front will move SE tonight and reach from
near Tampa Bay to 26N96W to the central Bay of Campeche by Fri
morning, then begin to stall and weaken. Strong N to NE winds will
prevail behind the front, with brief gales developing this
evening offshore Tampico, Mexico, and offshore of Veracruz early
Fri morning. The stalled front will begin to lift northward Fri
afternoon and out of the area Fri night into Sat. Another cold
front will move offshore Texas Sat night, bringing another round
of strong northerly winds. Gales are possible offshore Veracruz,
Mexico Sun afternoon and night behind this front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Gale Warning remains in effect off the coast of Colombia. Please
read the Special Feature Section for details.

The basin remains under the influence of an expansive 1029 mb
high pressure system centered over the north-central Atlantic. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and the Colombian low forces
fresh to strong E winds over much of the rest of the Caribbean.
Seas across much of the Caribbean are 6 to 10 ft, locally up to
11 to 12 ft offshore Colombia.

For the forecast, outside of the gale area, the pressure gradient
between a broad high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic
along 30N and low pressure over northwestern Colombia will support
strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through the
weekend. Rough to very rough seas are expected near and to the
west of the highest winds. Fresh to strong E to NE trade winds and
rough seas are expected across the remainder of southwestern and
eastern Caribbean, and Tropical Atlantic waters through Sun
morning, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the Atlantic
Passages, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and S of Hispaniola. Looking
ahead, Atlantic high pressure will begin to shift eastward Sun
through early Tue, leading to decreasing winds and seas across the
basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends into the tropical Atlantic near 31N25W to
26N47W. Moderate northerly winds and sea of 8-11 ft are N of the
front. The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical
ridge located in the north-central Atlantic. The pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep
tropics result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds south of
23N. These winds are supporting rough seas across much of the
Atlantic south of 24N. The strongest winds and highest seas are
found south of 22N and west of 35W. Fresh southerly winds and
moderate seas are noted off NE Florida. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong trade winds
will prevail south of 25N through Sun morning as the Atlantic
ridge persists along 29N-30N. Associated easterly swell will also
lead to rough seas S of 22N through the weekend. Gentle to
moderate winds will prevail N of 25N through tonight. A cold front
will move into the NW waters early Fri, bringing fresh to strong
NE winds and rough seas N of 28N and W of 60W. The cold front will
stall E to W along about 28N on Sat, then weaken and begin to
drift northward Sat night, accompanied by strong southerly winds
across the NW zones. Another cold front will exit the SE U.S. late
Sun and reach from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Mon
afternoon, then drift SE and weaken considerably through Tue.

$$
ERA

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672
AXNT20 KNHC 151058
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Feb 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: Winds will pulse to gale force offshore
of Colombia early this morning, and again tonight into early Sun
as a strong pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in
the western Atlantic and the Colombian low. Locally very rough
seas are expected near and to the west of the gale force winds.
Pulsing strong to near-gale force winds are expected each night
and early morning into next week.

SW Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will enter the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico early on Sun, with strong N winds and
rough seas occurring behind the front west of 90W as it moves
southeastward. Gale force winds are expected offshore of Veracruz
on Sun in the wake of the front. Winds will diminish from north to
south by Mon morning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N09W and extends to
03N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03N15W to 02S36W. Scattered
moderate convection is occurring south of 05N and east of 18W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information
regarding a Gale Warning in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico on Sun.

A cold front extends from west-central Florida to 26N76W.
Elsewhere, a 1016 mb low is located in southeastern Texas, and a
trough extends toward the south through the central Bay of
Campeche. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are occurring across
the eastern, central and northwestern Gulf of Mexico, with gentle
to locally moderate winds in the southwestern basin, including the
Bay of Campeche. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are noted across the basin.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong SE to E winds
will prevail in the southern Gulf early this morning, offshore of
the Yucatan Peninsula and northwestern Cuba. A warm front will
lift northward through the northern basin today, and moderate to
fresh SE to E winds are expected to develop across much of the
basin, including through the Florida Straits. Locally strong S
winds and rough seas will be possible in the northwestern Gulf
offshore of Texas later this morning, with more widespread strong
S to SW winds developing in the north-central Gulf late tonight
into Sun. The next cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico early on Sun, with strong N winds and rough seas occurring
behind the front west of 90W as it moves southeastward. Gale
force winds are expected offshore of Veracruz on Sun in the wake
of the front. Winds will diminish from north to south by Mon
morning, with transient high pressure expected over the basin
through Tue. Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Special Features section for information
regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean offshore of Colombia.

Pulsing gale force winds are occurring offshore of northwestern
Colombia, with strong winds occurring through the central
Caribbean, through the Windward Passage and across the Atlantic
Passages into the eastern basin. Elsewhere, fresh trade winds
prevail in the southwestern and eastern basin, with moderate winds
in the northwestern basin. Rough seas cover much of the central
and eastern Caribbean, with locally very rough seas to 13 ft
occurring near the gales. Otherwise, moderate seas prevail in the
northwestern Caribbean.

For the forecast, winds will pulse to gale force offshore of
Colombia early this morning, and again tonight into early Sun as a
strong pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the
western Atlantic and the Colombian low. Locally very rough seas
are expected near and to the west of the gale force winds.
Widespread fresh trade winds and rough seas will occur across the
central and eastern Caribbean through this weekend, with winds
pulsing to strong speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela, through the
Windward Passage, downwind of Hispaniola, in the lee of Cuba, in
the Gulf of Honduras, and through the Atlantic Passages.
Elsewhere, pulsing fresh NE winds are expected in the western
basin. Looking ahead, a decreasing pressure gradient between the
Colombian low and high pressure in the western and central
Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds and locally
rough seas across the basin into early next week, with locally
strong winds occurring offshore of Colombia.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N55W southwestward into south Florida,
and fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and rough seas are
occurring north of the front. Elsewhere, a weakening cold front
has been analyzed from 31N20W to 31N33W to 27N43W. Rough seas are
occurring near this cold front, with very rough seas noted north
of 28N and east of 39W. Farther south, moderate to fresh NE to E
winds prevail south of 25N, with locally strong winds and rough
seas occurring east of the Windward Islands from 12N to 18N west of 45W.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from 31N55W to south
Florida will progress southeastward this morning before stalling
along 28N later today, and dissipate by Sun. Fresh to locally
strong NE to E winds are expected north of the front this morning.
Pulsing fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will also occur
north of Hispaniola and Cuba and near the Bahamas into Sun. A
long-period N swell associated with this cold front will produce
rough seas north of 27N by late morning, and north of 23N by Sun
morning. Very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft will be possible north of
28N and east of 60W late tonight through Sun. Farther south, fresh
trade winds and rough seas will prevail south of 23N through this
weekend, with winds pulsing to strong speeds at times east of the
Windward Islands. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and rough
seas will then occur in this region through at least the middle
of next week. Elsewhere, winds will turn to the S and strengthen
west of 70W off the coast of Florida by early Sun ahead of the
next cold front forecast to move off the coast of the southeastern
United States Sun night. This front will reach from Bermuda to
the Florida Straits by Mon afternoon, then drift SE and weaken
considerably through Tue.

$$
ADAMS
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