ACUS11 KWNS 142301
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142300
MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-150100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0174
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0600 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Areas affected...northern Arkansas...Missouri...and into western
Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...

Valid 142300Z - 150100Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe risk -- largely in the form of very strong/damaging
winds -- will continue over the next several hours, while risk for a few/potentially strong tornadoes will also persist, especially over
southern portions of the WW.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a broken/complex band of storms
moving across Missouri and adjacent northwestern Arkansas. The most
intense convection is occurring from central Missouri southward,
just ahead of the advancing cold front.

While a dry/deeply mixed boundary layer is evident over northern
Missouri, dewpoints increase gradually with southward extent across
the watch. This suggests primary risk across northern portions of
the watch remains very strong/damaging gusts, while tornado
potential increases with southward extent, across the Ozarks.
Additionally, strong southerly low-level flow will continue to
advect moisture northward, so tornado potential should gradually
increase northeastward, with time.

..Goss.. 03/14/2025

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON 36129416 37019375 38309307 39169282 40129148 40019063
36909128 35449174 35229305 35449389 36129416

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ACUS11 KWNS 150046
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150045
INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-150245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0177
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025

Areas affected...northern Arkansas into southern and eastern
Missouri and into southwestern and central Illinois

Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...

Valid 150045Z - 150245Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues.

SUMMARY...Hazardous weather potential -- including strong/damaging
winds, large hail, and a few, possibly strong tornadoes -- continues.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a gradual change in storm
character over the past hour or so across south-central Missouri in
particular, where substantially more robust supercells have evolved.
Development has also increased southward into northern Arkansas.

The change in storm character coincides with -- and is likely
resulting from -- low-level moistening which is ongoing/spreading
northward with time. Storms increased substantially as dewpoints
rose into the low 50s, and now mid 50s dewpoints have overspread
much of southeastern Missouri and upper 50s to low 60s across
northern Arkansas and into the MO Bootheel. Given the highly
favorable flow field (veering and strongly increasing with height),
this increase in low-level moisture will likely support
corresponding increases in severe/tornado potential, including risk
for strong tornadoes potential evolving with time.

With storms now crossing the Mississippi River in west-central
Illinois, and in the next couple of hours farther south including
the St. Louis Metro area, a new Tornado Watch will likely be needed
across central Illinois and possibly into western Indiana.

..Goss.. 03/15/2025

ATTN...WFO...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...LZK...SGF...
TSA...

LAT...LON 35239373 36459314 37019308 37969200 38849180 38979176
40499038 40888917 40928752 40278721 38858740 38538769
38128936 36649133 35119160 35239373

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