ACUS02 KWNS 290553
SWODY2
SPC AC 290552

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Tue Apr 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN/CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday, centered
on central Texas to eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Large
hail, damaging wind, and a few tornadoes will be possible with
thunderstorm activity.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough is expected to move eastward across the Southern
Plains on Wednesday, with multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity
possible across portions of Texas and Oklahoma. At the start of the
period Wednesday morning, convection should be ongoing across
western Oklahoma into northern Texas near the surface low. This
activity will continue to track eastward through the period and
intensify through the afternoon/evening, as the surface low moves
north and eastward. Additional thunderstorm development is expected
along the southern fringe near the dryline in north-central Texas.

A warm front extending across portions of Missouri, southern
Indiana, southern Illinois into northern Kentucky may be the focus
of strong to severe thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon.

...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley...
The aforementioned thunderstorm activity early in the period
Wednesday morning is expected to intensify through the afternoon, as
daytime heating and increasing moisture leads to destabilization
downstream in the warm sector. By the afternoon, the dryline across
central Texas will be the focus of new development as upper level
forcing overspreads the region. With multiple rounds of convection
expected across the Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma and north
Texas in the D1 period, there is some uncertainty on where all the
mesoscale features will be as this occurs. Nonetheless, it appears
that ahead of the dryline the environment will be characterized by
steep lapse rates, modest MLCAPE, and strong deep layer shear. This
will support potential for a few supercells initially capable of
very large hail. Should the mode remain favorable, the tornado risk
will increase through the afternoon as the low-level jet strengthens
and low-level curvature of hodographs increases. A more favorable
corridor for tornadoes may exist near the Red River across
southeastern Oklahoma/northern Texas. Upscale growth will promote
potential for damaging wind, especially across eastern Oklahoma into
western Arkansas. However, shear will also support potential for
line embedded circulations.

Additional thunderstorms may re-develop further west across the
Texas Panhandle Wednesday afternoon, with potential for large hail.
At this time, it is uncertain how much recovery can happen from
multiple rounds of convection late D1 into D2 across this region.

...Lower MO/OH Valleys...
Along the warm front from southern Indiana into southern Illinois
and northern Kentucky, thunderstorm development is possible
Wednesday afternoon. Forcing remains weaker across this region, with
the shortwave back in the southern Plains. However, profiles would
be supportive of a supercell or two in this region, given the plume
of steep low to mid-level lapse rates, buoyancy, and sufficient
shear. These would be capable of hail, severe wind, and potentially
a tornado. For now, some uncertainty on coverage keeps probabilities
low.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/29/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 300601
SWODY2
SPC AC 300559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 30 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/locally severe thunderstorm development is expected from
central Texas into the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys northward to the
Great Lakes Thursday. Thunderstorms will pose a risk for strong to
severe winds and hail.

...Synopsis...
A broad region of southwesterly flow aloft will extend across the
lower Mississippi River Valley into the Great Lakes region Thursday,
with a mid-level vort max forecast to be moving eastward across the
Ozarks toward the Ohio Valley. Weak low pressure initially progged
to reside over the Missouri vicinity will gradually deepen as it
shifts east-northeastward into the Midwest through the day before
moving across Lower Michigan and into Ontario overnight. A trailing
cold front is forecast to shift gradually southeastward across the
Midwest/Mid Mississippi Valley/southern Plains through the period.

...Lower Great Lakes southwestward to Texas...
Thunderstorm activity will likely be ongoing near the front at the
edge of the Marginal Risk at the beginning of D2/Thursday. Widely
scattered thunderstorm activity is expected by the late
morning/afternoon along and ahead of the front. Flow at 850 mb will
be strongest from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley.
Sufficient instability will extend far enough northward to the Great
Lakes region to support a risk for damaging wind. Across the lower
Mississippi Valley, flow will be weaker but thunderstorms are
expected to re-develop by the afternoon. Given steep lapse rates,
sufficient shear, and moderate CAPE, the potential for damaging
winds will be possible.

Across central Texas, forcing for ascent will be weaker but a few
supercells may develop near the dryline. Guidance indicates the
dryline may surge eastward by the late afternoon. Though the flow is
weak, around 25-30 kts of deep layer flow across the dryline should
be sufficient to organize storms. The air mass ahead of the dryline
will be characterized by MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg and a plume of
steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and minimal MLCIN. Supercells in
this regime would be capable of large to very large hail.

...Texas Panhandle into western Oklahoma...
Elevated thunderstorms may develop across portions of the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle late in the D2/Thursday period. These would
likely be initially elevated but would pose some risk for hail and
damaging wind. Consensus is that this would likely consolidate into
an MCS and move across western Oklahoma through the end of the
period, with the damaging wind risk continuing through the end of
the D2 period.

..Thornton/Bentley.. 04/30/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 010600
SWODY2
SPC AC 010558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Thu May 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TRANS
PECOS TO EAST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected from the
Northeast, across the Ohio, Tennessee, and Lower Mississippi Valleys
and into Texas on Friday. The greatest threat for large hail will be
from the Trans Pecos to East Texas.

...Synopsis...
A surface low will move from Ontario into northern Quebec on Friday
with a trailing front stalling from the Great Lakes to the Ozarks to
West Texas. This front will start to accelerate southeast during the
late afternoon/evening as a positively tilted mid-level trough
amplifies and moves south across the Plains. Scattered strong to
severe storms are forecast along this frontal zone Friday
afternoon/evening.

...Trans Pecos to East Texas...
Moderate instability is forecast south of a frontal zone across
central Texas Friday afternoon. As the mid-level trough advances
southward through the Plains, mid-level temperatures will cool and
ascent will overspread this frontal zone. Therefore, as the airmass
becomes uncapped, scattered thunderstorms should develop along the
front. 35 to 40 knots of effective shear should be sufficient for
supercells with a primary hazard of large hail.

...Mid Mississippi Valley to the eastern Great Lakes...
Scattered thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front
from Louisiana to western New York on Friday afternoon. The best
flow will be across Kentucky and Ohio and into Pennsylvania and New
York, but heating/destabilization becomes more questionable that far
north. The best overlap of mid-level flow and richer low-level
moisture will be across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. However, cloud
cover associated with an MCS which is expected to be ongoing at the
beginning of the period across Texas and Arkansas will limit heating
and thus destabilization. Better instability will be likely where
heating can occur to the south of the more extensive cloud cover,
but shear/forcing becomes weaker farther south and east. Therefore,
within the broad marginal risk from western New York to Louisiana
there will likely be one or more corridors with a greater threat for
severe storms, but those areas will be mesoscale in nature and
highly dependent on Day 1 convection. Therefore, no higher
probabilities have been added at this time.

..Bentley.. 05/01/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 040551
SWODY2
SPC AC 040549

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1249 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern High Plains into
parts of central Texas Monday afternoon and evening. Large to very
large hail and severe winds are the primary threats. Additional
strong to severe storms are possible along the eastern Florida coast
and from northeast North Carolina to the Lake Erie vicinity.

...Synopsis...
Two upper-level lows, one in the Ohio Valley and the other in the
Southwest, will make slow eastward progress on Monday. A cold front
from the Upper Ohio Valley southward into the Mid-Atlantic and
central Florida will be a focus for convection during the afternoon.
In the southern High Plains, a surface trough/dryline will form and
promote afternoon thunderstorms as greater moisture moves westward
into the region.

...Southern High Plains into Central Texas...
As the upper low advances toward the region late Sunday into Monday,
some convection is possible from northeast New Mexico into the Texas
Panhandle and western Oklahoma. Low cloud cover is also expected
along with the moisture returning northwest across Texas into
eastern New Mexico. While these will be complicating factors in the
forecast, the approach of the upper low and embedded perturbations
will encourage the development of a dryline from far eastern New
Mexico into the Trans-Pecos. Strong heating along this dryline,
where upper 50s to mid 60s dewpoints will reside, will drive storm
development during the afternoon. Hodographs will initially be
rather straight. Splitting supercells capable of large/very-large
hail and severe winds are probable. During the early evening, the
low-level jet will strengthen. Moisture return will increase and
low-level hodographs will become larger. A zone of greater tornado
potential is evident from southern portions of the South Plains into
the northern Permian Basin, particularly for supercells lasting into
the early evening.

The evolution of convection becomes a bit more uncertain into the
later evening. The ramp up in the low-level jet should eventually
promote upscale growth into a cluster/MCS. This activity could
persist into parts of central Texas. Model guidance continues to
differ on the placement of this feature. The exact track will depend
largely on how far north the greater moisture is able to advect.
Severe winds would be the primary threat with these storms, though
low-level shear would also support some tornado risk even with a
linear mode. During the overnight and into Tuesday morning, the
greatest mid-level height falls will occur in the southern High
Plains. An additional cluster/MCS on the retreating dryline. How
severe this activity will be is unclear given the time of day and
the preceding convection.

...Florida...
With cold temperatures aloft (-10 to -12 C) remaining over the
Peninsula and stronger surface heating expected to occur, a few
strong to severe storms will again be possible along the eastern sea
breeze boundary. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective
shear (stronger to the north) will promote supercell structures
capable of large hail and damaging winds. A brief tornado would be
possible with storms that interact favorably with the sea breeze boundary.

...Mid-Atlantic into Upper Ohio Valley...
While some precipitation and cloud cover may occur early Monday
morning, models continue to show agreement that pockets of surface
heating will promote around 1000 J/kg by the afternoon. Enhanced
mid-level winds around the Ohio Valley upper low will foster 40-45
kts of effective shear. Isolated large hail and strong/damaging
winds will be possible with the strongest storms.

..Wendt.. 05/04/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 130537
SWODY2
SPC AC 130536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Tue May 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly over
parts of the Dakotas and Nebraska Wednesday afternoon and evening.
A more isolated severe threat is anticipated across parts of the
Southeast and Mid-Atlantic Wednesday afternoon.

...Synopsis...
An upper trough evident in water-vapor imagery over the Pacific
Northwest is forecast to pivot into the central and northern Plains
over the next 48 hours. As this occurs, strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the wave and within a
narrow warm sector in place across parts of the central to northern
Plains. Across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic, a weakening
upper-level low will continue to de-amplify as it meanders to the
northeast. Residual 25-35 knot mid-level flow will likely contribute
to some storm organization as convection develops within a moist and
weakly capped environment.

...Central to Northern Plains...
Continued deepening of a surface trough is anticipated through the
next 48 hours across the northern Plains. This will maintain a
southeasterly flow regime across the Plains with modest moisture
return anticipated within a narrow plume from NE into the Dakotas by
Wednesday afternoon. A Pacific cold front, evident in late-evening
surface observations across the Intermountain West, is forecast to
progress east and impinge on the narrow warm sector by late
afternoon/early evening. Storm motions and deep-layer shear vectors
largely parallel to the front will favor relatively quick upscale
growth into clusters/linear segments. Although shear will initially
be modest, the high-based nature of the storms should promote a
strong/severe wind threat. With time, strengthening mid to
upper-level flow will elongate hodographs and may support an
increasing hail threat into the evening hours as convection develops
southward along the front. Some guidance hints at a second round of
convection late evening into the overnight hours across southeast SD
into NE as the primary vorticity maximum ejects into the Plains and
promotes additional thunderstorm development along the advancing cold front.

...Carolinas to Mid-Atlantic...
A moist air mass will remain in place across the Southeast and
Mid-Atlantic through the next 48 hours in the absence of any
synoptic fronts or influential gradient winds. Rich moisture through
the lowest 100-200 mb will maintain weak capping and support
diurnally driven convection by late afternoon as surface
temperatures warm into the mid 70s under broken cloud cover. Similar
to previous days, which have produced isolated damaging winds, weak
low-level winds under 25-35 knot mid-level flow will promote
transient storm organization. While a similar
thermodynamic/kinematic environment will be in place across much of
the Southeast on Wednesday, latest CAM guidance suggests the best
severe potential resides across portions of the Carolinas into the
DelMarVa region where thunderstorm coverage should be greatest ahead
of the mid-level vorticity maximum.

..Moore.. 05/13/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 160558
SWODY2
SPC AC 160557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri May 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO ARKANSAS AND OVER PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of the Mid
Atlantic and Northeast, and across parts of the southeastern Great
Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low centered across the western Great Lakes Saturday
morning will shift east through the day and move over the Northeast
by 12Z Sunday. Moderate to strong mid-level flow will expand south
from the southern Great Lakes to the Southeast. Farther west, a
weakening mid-level shortwave trough will advance from northern
Mexico into the Southern Plains. A mid-level jet streak associated
with this mid-level shortwave trough will overspread portions of central/northern Texas and into Oklahoma on Saturday. A strong
mid-level jet streak will move into the Intermountain West on
Saturday and amplify a trough across the western CONUS.

...Mid Atlantic to the Northeast...
Thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of the period
across portions of the Upper Ohio Valley and eastern Great Lakes.
This convection and cloudcover associated with it, casts
considerable uncertainty on destabilization, particularly across the
Northeast. However, mid-60s dewpoints are anticipated ahead of the
cold front as it moves eastward through the day. This moisture,
combined with cooling temperatures aloft. Could be sufficient for
damaging wind gusts and perhaps isolated large hail.

The most favorable zone for severe storms will likely exist across
eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia. This zone is far
enough south to likely remain mostly cloud free which will promote
surface heating and destabilization. In addition, the stronger
mid-level flow is forecast to overspread this region which would
support storm organization and the potential for supercells. Given
the greater instability and shear with potential for supercell storm
mode, large hail and damaging wind gusts appear most likely within
this region.

...Southeast...
The cold front will likely become stalled across the Southeast on
Saturday. South of this front, moderate to strong instability is
forecast with 50 knots of flow parallel to the boundary. Forcing
will remain weak along this boundary with minimal surface
convergence and mostly neutral heights aloft. Therefore, storms are
possible along this boundary, and could be supercellular if they
form, but coverage should be isolated if any storms form at all
given the weak forcing.

...Central Texas into Oklahoma, Arkansas, and northern Louisiana...
Moderate to strong instability is forecast across central/northern
Texas Saturday afternoon as temperatures warm into the low 80s with
dewpoints in the low 70s and 500mb temperatures around -10C. Weak
large scale forcing will overspread the dryline during the afternoon
as a right entrance region of the upper-level jet overspreads
northern Texas. Any subtle large scale forcing will likely be
sufficient for rapid storm development along the uncapped
dryline/triple point in north-central Texas by mid-afternoon. Large
hail (some 2+ inch) will be the initial threat from supercells along
the dryline. However, CAM signals suggest a combination of left and right-moving supercells congealing into a cluster/MCS rather quickly
with an increasing severe wind threat. These mode concerns limit
higher hail/tornado probabilities at this time, despite a very
unstable and strongly sheared environment across the region.

Additional supercells may develop Saturday evening and into early
Sunday morning across eastern Oklahoma into the Ozarks as isentropic
ascent increases with the strengthening low-level jet. These storms
will pose a primary threat of large hail.

...Utah into Southeast Idaho and Southwest Wyoming...
Rapidly cooling temperatures aloft across the Great Basin on
Saturday will result in weak destabilization and numerous storms. A
deep, well-mixed boundary layer will support the potential for
severe wind gusts from the stronger cores.

..Bentley.. 05/16/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 220602
SWODY2
SPC AC 220600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO...SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms are expected across portions of the central
Plains on Friday with more isolated strong to severe storms possible
across portions of western Texas and southeast Florida.

...Synopsis...
A relatively flat ridge will be present across the central Rockies
on Friday. Moderate flow across the higher terrain will result in
lee cyclogenesis across the central High Plains. A dryline will
extend from the surface low across western Kansas and into the Texas
Panhandle and West Texas.

...Northeast Colorado, southwest Nebraska, and northwest Kansas... Strengthening southerly flow will back through the day with
consistent boundary layer moistening ahead of the a dryline across
northeast Kansas. This will likely result in moderate instability
with steep lapse rates extending from the surface to the mid-levels
within the strongly mixed zone along the dryline by mid to late
afternoon. Upper-level forcing will be somewhat nebulous, but as the
low-level flow backs and strengthens, increased isentropic ascent
and upslope flow should support scattered storm development during
the evening. Strong shear will support supercells capable of large
hail and severe wind gusts.

...West Texas into the Texas Panhandle...
Hot conditions will develop across West Texas on Friday with a very
deeply mixed boundary layer. Storms will likely develop along the
dryline during the late afternoon to early evening with some
organization. Storm mode is the primary factor limiting greater
probabilities at this time. Modest shear may support some supercell
structures amid moderate to strong shear. However, the deeply mixed
boundary layer will promote strong downdrafts which may support
rather quick clustering and a more multicell mode. A zone from near
Midland to Wichita Falls may eventually need a slight risk of storm
mode remains favorable for a more widespread severe hail/wind gust threat.

...Eastern Kansas, Oklahoma and northern Texas into Arkansas...
Isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
central Oklahoma into central Kansas on Friday morning. However, the
low-level jet will not be as strong and storm coverage/intensity may
not be that great. By Friday night, more widespread elevated
thunderstorms are likely across eastern Kansas and into parts of
Oklahoma, southwest Missouri, and western Arkansas. Large hail may
be possible from this overnight elevated activity.

...Eastern Florida...
Relatively cool mid-level temperatures will be present across
Florida today. Moderate instability will be in place south of a
stalled frontal zone across central Florida. Thunderstorms are
expected along the sea breeze near the east coast of Florida. Modest
mid-level flow (25 to 30 knots) will result in sufficient shear for
some multicell storm organization. Isolated large hail and damaging
wind gusts will be the primary threats.

..Bentley.. 05/22/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 260600
SWODY2
SPC AC 260558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon May 26 2025

Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are expected on Tuesday from parts
of the southern Plains eastward into the Southeast. The greatest
threat of large hail and wind damage will be over parts of southwest
and south-central Texas. A locally greater threat for wind damage
could also occur in the lower Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the Ozarks on
Tuesday, as flow remains from a westerly direction across much of
the southern Plains. At the surface, a cold front will advance
southward into central and southwest Texas. Surface dewpoints near
and to the south of the front will be in the lower to mid 70s F,
which will contribute to strong destabilization in some areas by
midday. As low-level convergence becomes focused near the boundary
in the afternoon, thunderstorm development is expected. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop and move southeastward across
southwest and south-central Texas, where a severe threat appears likely.

NAM forecast soundings late Tuesday afternoon near the instability
maximum have MLCAPE peaking near 2500 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse
rates near 8 C/km. In addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be
around 35 knots, which should support supercells with large hail.
Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible,
with supercells that develop intense cores. As the cluster expands
in coverage, and moves eastward into south-central Texas, a
wind-damage threat is also expected.

Further eastward into southeast Texas, an MCS is forecast to move
away from the area during the morning. It its wake, a slightly more
stable airmass should keep convective development more isolated
during the afternoon. A marginal severe threat will be possible with
any cells that can initiate and persist as the airmass recovers.

...Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast...
A mid-level shortwave trough will move eastward into the Ozarks on
Tuesday, as flow remains southwesterly over the southeastern U.S. At
the surface, a front is forecast to be located from the vicinity of
southeast Texas extending east-northeastward into the central Gulf
Coast states. A moist and unstable airmass is expected near and to
the south of the boundary over the lower Mississippi Valley and
central Gulf Coast. From the morning into early afternoon, a linear
MCS is forecast to move from southeast Texas into south-central
Mississippi. As surface temperatures warm ahead of the MCS, a
wind-damage threat is expected to develop as the line gradually
intensifies. Some models suggest that strong instability will
develop across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley by midday,
which would support a locally greater wind-damage threat.

Further to the east, moderate instability will likely develop over
parts Alabama and Georgia by afternoon. Although deep-layer shear is
forecast to remain relatively weak, steep low-level lapse rates
during the afternoon may be enough for marginally severe wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 05/26/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 270600
SWODY2
SPC AC 270558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Tue May 27 2025

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible in parts
of the southern High Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Marginally severe storms will be possible over part of the central
High Plains, and from the southern Plains into the Southeast.

...Southern High Plains...
At mid-levels, convergent flow from the northwest and west will be
place across the southern Plains on Wednesday. At the surface, an
area of high pressure is forecast over the central Plains. To the
south of the anticyclone, a post-frontal airmass will gradually
modify as moisture begins to return northward over parts of the
southern Plains. Moderate instability is expected to develop over a
few areas from central and east Texas into western Louisiana. Over
this modifying airmass, any severe threat is expected to be marginal.

Further west into parts of the southern High Plains, convective
initiation is expected during the early afternoon in the higher
terrain of eastern New Mexico and far west Texas. The storms will
gradually move eastward toward an axis of moderate instability.
Forecast soundings early Wednesday evening near the instability axis
have 0-6 km shear near 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates
approaching 8 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail and
severe wind gusts, associated with strong updrafts that develop in
the afternoon and evening.

Northward into central and eastern Colorado, thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the higher terrain and move eastward into the
central Plains. Weak instability, sufficient deep-layer shear and
steep lapse rage could be enough for a marginal severe threat.

...Southeast...
West-southwesterly flow at mid-levels is forecast over the Southeast
on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist airmass will likely be in
place from the lower Mississippi Valley eastward into the eastern
Gulf Coast states. As surface temperatures warm, isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development is expected along zones of
maximized heating, and near focused areas of low-level convergence.
Although large-scale ascent and deep-layer shear should be weak, the thermodynamic environment may be enough for marginally severe wind
gusts with the stronger multicells.

..Broyles.. 05/27/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 290553
SWODY2
SPC AC 290551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu May 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...GEORGIA...CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms with wind damage, large hail, and a couple
tornadoes will be possible Friday afternoon and evening from parts
of the Eastern Gulf Coast to the Mid-Atlantic.

...Georgia/Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic/Gulf Coast States...
At mid-levels, a trough will move across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys, as a jet streak translates eastward across the Southeast.
Ahead of the trough, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place
from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic. Surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will
likely result in moderate destabilization across much of this
airmass by midday. Scattered thunderstorm development, aided by
topographic forcing, is expected to take place in the southern and
central Appalachians during the early afternoon. Convection will
move eastward into the lower elevations of the Atlantic Coastal
states during the mid to late evening, where a severe threat will
likely develop. The increase in large-scale ascent and deep-layer
shear associated with the approaching mid-level jet will be a driver
for the severe threat Friday afternoon and evening.

NAM forecast soundings along the instability axis during the
afternoon suggest that MLCAPE will peak near 1500 J/kg, and that 0-6
km shear will increase into the 50 to 60 knot range. While the
low-levels are forecast to remain veered to the southwest, strong
speed shear will be present in the 850 to 500 mb layer. This will be
favorable for supercells and bowing line segments. 0-3 km lapse
rates are forecast to peak near 7.5 C/km, which will support a
potential for damaging wind gusts. Supercells will also be capable
of producing isolated large hail, especially in areas where the
maximum potential for surface heating is realized. Although
low-level shear is not expected to be that strong, any supercell
that becomes intense could produce a brief tornado. The severe
threat is expected to move eastward onto the Atlantic Coastal Plain
in the late afternoon, and toward the Atlantic Coast during the
evening.

...Western Great Lakes...
At mid-levels, flow is forecast to become north-northwesterly over
the upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes, in the wake of
an exiting trough. At the surface, a post-frontal airmass will be
located over the western Great Lakes, where flow will be
northwesterly. A pocket of locally higher surface dewpoints is
forecast from eastern Wisconsin into lower Michigan. Within this
pocket, weak instability is expected to develop along the western
edge of the higher surface dewpoints, along and inland from the
western shore of Lake Michigan. Along this north-to-south corridor,
surface heating and low-level convergence will make convective
initiation likely during the afternoon. Forecast soundings at 21Z
from Chicago to Milwaukee have 0-3 km lapse rates peaking near 8.5
C/km, which will be favorable for isolated marginally severe gusts.
In addition, 500 mb temps will be relatively cold near -17C, which
could also support a potential for hail with the stronger updrafts.

..Broyles.. 05/29/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 310545
SWODY2
SPC AC 310543

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible on
Sunday from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday in east Texas.
Isolated severe storms are also possible with similar timing over
the Carolinas and a portion of the northern Rockies.

...East TX...
A compact shortwave impulse near the Ozarks at 12Z Sunday should
track southeast across the Lower MS Valley towards the central Gulf
Coast. While mid-level lapse rates will be modest to the
west-southwest of this wave, a belt of moderate mid-level to strong
upper-level northwesterlies is anticipated during the afternoon.
With weak low-level winds veering with height, this setup should
yield favorable hodograph elongation for supercells.

The primary uncertainties are 1) the coverage of afternoon storms
and 2) the spatial location for a mesoscale corridor of greater
threat. More aggressive guidance appears to develop convection both
along a convergent dryline towards the I-35 corridor and eastward
within a weak low-level warm theta-e advection regime that is aided
by pronounced differential boundary-layer heating across a confined
plume of rich western Gulf moisture. While there is spatial and
coverage uncertainty, the consensus signal for a few supercells
warrants an upgrade to a level 2-SLGT risk highlight. Scattered
large hail and isolated damaging winds should be the primary hazards
before convection weakens after dusk.

...Northern Rockies...
In the wake of an initial shortwave trough crossing the southern
Canadian Rockies into the Prairie Provinces early in the period, an
upstream, positive-tilt impulse will shift towards the northern
Rockies Sunday night. The lead wave will aid in a Pacific cold front
pushing east across much of the MT High Plains by late afternoon
Sunday. Primary severe potential is anticipated within a confined
corridor over the adjacent high terrain to the west-southwest. This
corridor will lie between a belt of enhanced mid-level
west-southwesterlies to its north and deeper-mixed thermodynamic
profiles to its south. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to
initiate by mid to late afternoon. Strong to isolated severe gusts
along with small to marginally severe hail are possible.

...Carolinas...
Yet another shortwave impulse rotating through the base of the
persistent longwave trough over the East should aid in mid-afternoon
storm development east of the southern Appalachians. Buoyancy will
be weak amid marginal mid-level lapse rates and low-level
westerlies. But steep low-level lapse rates coupled with sufficient
speed shear should yield a few transient/weak supercell to multicell
structures as convection develops off the higher terrain and along a quasi-stationary front into the evening. Small to marginally severe
hail may develop in initial cores. This would aid in downdrafts
producing strong surface gusts capable of isolated damaging winds.

..Grams.. 05/31/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 311727
SWODY2
SPC AC 311725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sat May 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds are possible on
Sunday from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Sunday in east Texas. More
isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
mid-Tennessee River Valley into the southern Appalachians, central
High Plains, northern Rockies, and south Florida.

...Synopsis...
Little change is expected to the overall synoptic regime over the
next 48 hours across the country. Long-wave ridging will persist
across much of the Rockies/Plains with embedded shortwave troughs
propagating across the western CONUS. To the east, a long-wave
trough will undergo gradual de-amplification as it continues to
shift east/northeast. Overall, this synoptic regime will favor
multiple focused corridors of at least low-end strong to severe
thunderstorm potential, though the greatest risk will reside across
parts of TX where buoyancy/shear should be most conducive for
organized convection.

...Central to eastern Texas...
Early-morning convection associated with the progressive shortwave
trough currently over the central Plains will likely be ongoing
across parts of north/northeast TX by 12z Sunday. Recent forecast
guidance suggests this activity will weaken through morning,
possibly leaving an outflow boundary draped across parts of
eastern/central TX. Heating of a moist air mass along and west of
the boundary and/or along a weak surface trough should yield around
3000 J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon with weak capping. Recent
convective allowing guidance continues to show some uncertainty
regarding convective coverage within this weakly forced regime, but
all solutions show at least a few robust cells developing along the boundary/trough by late afternoon. 30-40 knot mid-level flow
associated with the departing upper-level perturbation will support
adequate deep-layer wind shear for supercells capable of severe
gusts and large to very large (2+ inches in diameter) hail. While
low-level wind shear is expected to generally be weak for much of
the region, a tornado threat may materialize if convection can
become rooted along the boundary where low-level vorticity may be
locally maximized.

...Tennessee to the Carolinas...
A diffuse cold front currently pushing south across the Midwest/OH
Valley is forecast to stall from southern IL into parts of KY, TN,
and the Carolinas by peak heating Sunday. A combination of moist
low-level conditions and weak capping should facilitate thunderstorm development along the front by late afternoon. 25-30 knot mid-level
flow within the base of a mid-level trough should allow for
sufficient deep-layer wind shear for a few organized cells/clusters
capable of severe hail and sporadic damaging winds. Confidence in
the severe threat is greatest across eastern TN into the Carolinas
where mesoscale ascent along the boundary will be aided by lift
ahead of the trough axis.

...Northern Rockies...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the Pacific
Northwest/northern Rockies through Sunday evening. Steepening
mid-level lapse rates and modest broad-scale ascent ahead of the
wave should promote thunderstorm development by late afternoon from
eastern ID into western MT. Although overall buoyancy will be modest
(MUCAPE approaching 200-400 J/kg), strong speed shear within the
CAPE-bearing layer (around 35-40 knots within the 0-3 km layer)
should promote some storm organization/longevity with an attendant
hail/wind risk.

...Central High Plains...
Thunderstorm development along the eastern slopes of the central
Rockies is anticipated by mid-afternoon within a weak upslope flow
regime. 20-25 knot westerly mid-level flow will not only help
elongate hodographs, but will advect steeper mid-level lapse rates
into the region. This, combined with slightly improved low-level
moisture, should be sufficient for a few robust thunderstorms
capable of severe gusts and perhaps large hail.

...South Florida...
The frontal boundary currently drifting southward along the FL
peninsula is forecast to stall later tonight/early Sunday morning.
Although forcing for ascent along the stalled boundary will be weak,
very moist low-level conditions and limited capping will promote
thunderstorm development across the central peninsula by late
morning. Through late afternoon, additional heating combined with
persistent 25-30 knot mid-level flow aloft should promote some storm organization with an attendant wind threat across southern FL.

..Moore.. 05/31/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 010544
SWODY2
SPC AC 010542

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Sun Jun 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central and
southern High Plains into the northern Great Plains during the late
afternoon and evening on Monday. Severe gusts and large hail are the
expected hazards.

...Synopsis...
A split-flow regime Monday will be characterized by a
northern-stream shortwave trough moving east from the northern
Rockies along the international border over the northern Great
Plains, and a low-amplitude southern-stream trough ejecting across
the Southwest onto the southern High Plains. A surface cold front
preceding the northern-stream trough should extend across northern
MN into the central High Plains. A surface low will diurnally deepen
near the NE/CO/KS border area, with a lee trough southward into
eastern NM and the TX Trans-Pecos.

...NE/CO/WY border area to western MN...
Moderate to large buoyancy will develop ahead of the NE to SD
portion of the northeast/southwest-oriented cold front by late
afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and
to the cool side of the front during this time frame as weak
mid-level height falls overspread the boundary. The belt of strong
mid-level flow attendant to the northern-stream trough will largely
lag behind the surface front. This should foster predominantly
multicell clusters, with the best potential for supercell structures
in the post-frontal air mass over the central High Plains.
Widespread thunderstorms are expected during the evening, centered
on the NE portion of the front, as the KS/OK low-level jet
strengthens. Isolated to scattered large hail/severe gusts are
possible, mainly through about dusk, before intensity wanes.

...KS to southern High Plains vicinity...
Pervasive afternoon thunderstorm development is expected to emanate
from NM/southern CO/far west TX, amid lobes of large-scale ascent
ahead of multiple impulses embedded with the low-amplitude trough
over the Southwest. This activity will initially be displaced west
of the large buoyancy reservoir over western/central OK into north
TX where mid-level lapse rates will be steep. Modest mid-level flow
enhancement is expected to accompany initial high-based development,
likely yielding mainly multicells and transient supercell
structures. But as convection impinges/develops towards the greater
MLCAPE plume, convection should intensify. This should result in an
increasing severe wind threat during the late afternoon to early
evening through at least western KS to the TX Panhandle. How far
downstream convection can remain severe later in the evening is
uncertain given increasing MLCIN with time/eastern extent, greater
low-level jet focused ascent in NE, and the modest deep-layer shear.

..Grams.. 06/01/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 020541
SWODY2
SPC AC 020539

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 AM CDT Mon Jun 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern Great
Plains to the Midwest, mainly from midday to mid-evening Tuesday. A
couple tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail may occur.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave impulse should begin
phasing with a northern-stream shortwave trough in the Upper
Midwest. This process will aid in strengthening mid-level
southwesterlies across the northern part of the warm-moist sector,
roughly from the IA/IL border area northward. Weak cyclogenesis
should be induced along the WI portion of a progressive cold front.
Trailing portion of this front will push southeast in OK/TX as a
surface ridge builds south into the southern High Plains.

...TX Big Country to the Ozarks...
More pronounced boundary-layer heating is likely to occur with
southern extent across this portion of the warm sector characterized
by rich low-level moisture. A warm mid-level thermal profile should
yield modest lapse rates and support largely moderate buoyancy with
MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg on Tuesday afternoon. But this portion of
the warm sector front will have a more westerly wind profile in the mid/upper-levels, supportive of initial slow-moving supercells.

Widespread afternoon thunderstorms are expected from southeast KS
through western OK, with isolated to scattered storms into north TX
during the evening. Upscale growth into clusters and eventual linear
segments is likely, especially as composite outflows serve as the
effective cold front. Initial large hail with a tornado or two,
transitioning to more of a damaging wind threat is anticipated. The
severe threat should diminish as it shifts south/east Monday night.

...Mid-MS Valley to southern/eastern WI...
A strong and broad low-level jet on Monday will aid in rich moisture
return ahead of the surface front into at least WI by Tuesday. Areas
of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z within the attendant
warm conveyor and a favorably diffluent upper-flow regime. Mid-level
lapse rates will be poor to weak, owing to both preceding convection
and relatively warm 500-mb temperatures attendant to the
southern-stream impulse. Guidance consensus suggests that
appreciable boundary-layer heating may be displaced east and south
of the rich moisture plume. As such, confidence is below-average
regarding the northeast extent of the level 2-SLGT risk. But given
the presence of seasonably strong 700-mb southwesterlies, some
damaging wind threat remains apparent to at least the Mid-MS Valley
with late-afternoon/early-evening scattered storms.

..Grams.. 06/02/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 040549
SWODY2
SPC AC 040547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Wed Jun 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND OK TO SOUTH KS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are anticipated, mainly from late
afternoon Thursday into Thursday night from the southern High Plains
across southern Kansas and Oklahoma. A few tornadoes, large to
isolated very large hail, and severe gusts are possible.

...Southern High Plains to southern KS and OK...
A cluster of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12Z Thursday
across a portion of northwest TX within a low-level warm theta-e
advection regime. As the low-level jet diurnally subsides, this
activity is expected to diminish. The intensity and areal extent of
this convection will likely impact later-day frontal location and
the degree of destabilization to its northeast. The 00Z NAM is much
more aggressive than guidance consensus at limiting diurnal
destabilization across KS/OK. To the west of this morning activity,
robust destabilization is expected across the southern High Plains
from both increased boundary-layer moisture combined with an
expansion of steep mid-level lapse rates. A plume of large buoyancy
with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg is expected by afternoon.

With generally neutral mid-level height change, isolated to
scattered convective development is most likely to focus off the
higher terrain of the Trans-Pecos and the Raton Mesa during the late
afternoon to early evening. A few storms are possible in between
these corridors along the eastern NM dryline, but confidence is low.
Deep-layer shear profiles will favor discrete supercells where
convection is sustained. Large hail and damaging winds are possible,
with tornado potential increasing into early evening as the
low-level jet strengthens. Long-track supercell potential is evident
off the Raton Mesa, near the surface warm front, where greater
hodograph elongation is anticipated. This could support a swath of
very large hail. Widespread convection is expected within this
similar zone later into the evening through Thursday night amid
strengthening warm advection. This should result in a
forward-propagating MCS to the east-southeast from parts of the TX
Panhandle to southern KS and OK through early morning Friday. The
amplitude of severe wind potential will likely be modulated by the
degree of surface-based instability. Given the likelihood of
below-normal temperatures Thursday, low confidence exists to warrant
greater probabilities.

...Mid-South to New England...
A weak cold front will aid in isolated to scattered afternoon
thunderstorms across a broad swath of the central to northeastern
states. Large buoyancy will likely be confined to the Mid-South,
with weak to moderate MLCAPE extending northeastward. This front
will remain on the periphery of modest mid-level southwesterlies.
Multicell clusters are expected to dominate in this setup with
sporadic damaging winds as the primary hazard. Slightly greater
effective bulk shear in the Mid-South and Northeast should also
offer a threat for isolated severe hail.

..Grams.. 06/04/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 050553
SWODY2
SPC AC 050551

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1251 AM CDT Thu Jun 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TO THE TN/LOWER OH VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern High
Plains to the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys on Friday into Friday
night. Damaging winds and a couple tornadoes are the main hazards.
Large to very large hail is possible over the southern High Plains.

...Southern Great/High Plains...
A large MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday from the Ozark
Plateau to the OK/TX Red River Valley. Large-scale outflow will
trail in the wake of this MCS and modify to the north of it as
diurnal heating ensues. Along and south of the boundary, a confined
plume of moderate to large buoyancy is expected by late afternoon
with MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg. North of it, more modest values are
anticipated between the outflow and a quasi-stationary front.
Scattered thunderstorms will once again develop along and to the
cool side of the front over the Raton Mesa into south-central CO,
with more isolated expected southward along the dryline to the
Trans-Pecos. A belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies, with
strengthening of upper-level flow, is anticipated south of a
shortwave impulse moving into the central High to Great Plains
through Friday night. This setup should yield favorable hodograph
elongation for a sustained, long-lived supercell or two evolving
southeastward from southeast CO. While buoyancy will be more muted,
it should be sufficient for a significant severe hail and brief
tornado threat. A few supercells farther south may have a tendency
to be more outflow-dominant per various CAM depictions, but will
likewise contain sig-severe hail potential as well.

The Raton Mesa vicinity convection should grow upscale into another
MCS Friday night as storm-scale outflows consolidate and with
strengthening of the southern High Plains low-level jet. Most
guidance indicates a somewhat delayed/slightly weaker jet than on
D1. This coupled with signals for negative low-level theta-e
advection overnight, given the confined plume of rich low-level
moisture along the prior outflow boundary, lowers confidence in
highlighting greater coverage of both severe and sig severe wind
with the MCS as it likely tracks into/across OK.

...Mid-South to the TN/Lower OH Valleys...
A large MCS will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday from the Ozark
Plateau to the OK/TX Red River Valley. This MCS should weaken
somewhat in the late morning, but then intensify by midday and
persist through the afternoon. A moderately unstable airmass will
develop ahead of it from the Deep South into at least southern KY
with MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg common. Deep-layer shear should remain
modest with southern extent, where multicell clusters will dominate.
Closer to the parent MCV, enhanced 700-mb westerlies will be present
and should compensate for weaker destabilization. While isolated
severe hail is possible, mainly within renewed updrafts along the
large-scale outflow and redevelopment on the backside of the MCV,
scattered damaging wind swaths should be the main hazard from KY to
northern parts of MS/AL/GA.

..Grams.. 06/05/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 060537
SWODY2
SPC AC 060536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT PLAINS/OZARKS TO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Great
Plains to the Southeast States on Saturday through Saturday evening.
Swaths of damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and sporadic large
hail will be possible.

...Southeast to the Lower OH/Mid-MS Valleys...
A large MCS is expected to be ongoing at 12Z Saturday across the
OK/AR vicinity, to the south of a low-amplitude shortwave impulse
over the central Plains. Most guidance maintains these as two
distinct features with the shortwave moving east into the Midwest
and an MCV moving east into the TN Valley. The 00Z NAM continues to
phase these features with substantial amplification of kinematic
fields downstream. Utilizing guidance consensus, the dominant
severe-weather potential should first emanate downstream of the
morning MCS and remnant MCV. Enhanced mid-level westerlies should be
present atop rich low-level moisture across the TN Valley and
interior Deep South. Ample buoyancy should diurnally develop south
and east of the primary MCS outflow, as well as pre-existing
outflows from extensive D1 convection. Considered an upgrade to a
level 3-ENH for damaging wind centered on northern MS/AL/GA, but
have deferred due to mesoscale uncertainties at this time frame.

A likely separate regime of afternoon to evening storm development
should be focused ahead of the central Plains to Midwest shortwave
trough. Primary uncertainty here is the degree of diurnal
destabilization in the wake of/to the north-northwest of the Mid to
Deep South MCS. Have expanded level 2-SLGT risk somewhat north
across the southern MO vicinity, but confidence in overall
intensity/coverage farther downstream is low.

...Southern High Plains to the Mid-South...
In the wake of the large MCS that is expected to be ongoing at 12Z
Saturday, guidance remains consistent in suggesting a relative
down-day in terms of late afternoon storms across the southern High
Plains. Convection will probably remain quite isolated and initially
tied to the Raton Mesa and Trans-Pecos vicinities. Isolated
development is also possible in the TX Big Country at the
intersection of the dryline and large-scale outflow from the morning
MCS. Weak low-level warm advection atop this outflow in the evening
should aid in scattered thunderstorms downstream through the
Mid-South. With expansion of the southern Plains EML, a mix of
scattered large hail and isolated damaging winds is possible before
intensity wanes overnight.

...Dakotas vicinity...
A mid/upper shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairies will
amplify into the Dakotas/MN through early Sunday. As this occurs,
the primary surface cyclone should drift east across southern MB. A
cold front will arc to the south-southwest of this cyclone and move
southeast across the Dakotas during the afternoon. MLCAPE should
remain meager with low-quality boundary-layer moisture. But the
strengthening forcing for ascent should support a band of
lower-topped convection. Strong to localized severe gusts are
possible during the late afternoon to early evening when a
well-mixed boundary layer is prevalent.

..Grams.. 06/06/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 080549
SWODY2
SPC AC 080547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe
hail are possible across the Southeast into the Upper Ohio Valley on
Monday into Monday evening.

...Southeast...
Below-average confidence exists for this forecast with large spread
across D2 guidance in the handling of an early-morning MCS and
attendant MCV in the MS vicinity, amid modest background wind fields
outside of the MCV influence. Most guidance indicates convection
should intensify towards midday, along and downstream of the
large-scale outflow as the boundary layer destabilizes across the
Deep South. Some guidance indicates convection may redevelop behind
it and become the primary corridor for damaging winds during the
afternoon. For now, have maintained a broad level 2-SLGT risk for
scattered damaging winds to the South Atlantic Coast.

...Upper OH Valley...
A belt of strong mid-level southwesterlies ahead of an upper Great
Lakes vertically stacked cyclone should generally remain along to
the cool side of a weak cold front shifting east. Most guidance has
trended up with the degree of boundary-layer heating ahead of the
front, which will be required to boost buoyancy amid marginal
mid-level lapse rates. A corridor of primarily scattered damaging
winds, along with a tornado and isolated severe hail, may develop
amid modest MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg. With a confined buoyancy plume,
convection should weaken as it spreads towards the northern
Appalachians on Monday evening.

...NM/TX...
An intense and large MCS on Sunday should drive a composite
outflow/cold front into central/south TX, with a meridional arc over
central to western NM. Scattered to numerous afternoon storms will
probably remain tied to the higher terrain of northern/central NM
with an isolated severe hail/wind threat amid marginal deep-layer
shear. Isolated storms are also possible near the front from the
southern Trans-Pecos through southeast TX with a severe hail/wind
threat. Isolated elevated convection may form with weak low-level
warm theta-e advection north of the front on Monday evening/night.
Sufficient effective bulk shear and elevated buoyancy may exist for
a few storms capable of severe hail.

..Grams.. 06/08/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 081731
SWODY2
SPC AC 081729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun Jun 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds, a couple tornadoes, and isolated severe
hail are possible across the Southeast into the Upper Ohio Valley on
Monday into Monday evening.

...Mid-South/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast...
While there is some uncertainty regarding the intensity/organization
and location of the overnight MCS early Monday morning, the general
consensus within the guidance places its associated vorticity max
and surface low over the eastern vicinity. Expectation is then for
this low and vorticity max to continue eastward into the moist and
moderately buoyant airmass downstream across the Southeast.
Thunderstorms appear likely in the vicinity of these features,
including well downstream during the afternoon as boundary layer
destabilizes and along the trailing composite outflow that will
likely maintain its integrity. Damaging gusts will be the primary
risk, particularly across central MS/AL where a corridor of greater
severe potential may materialize. Uncertainty (primarily related to
limited predictability of the system's speed) in this corridor
remains too high to outline any higher probabilities with this
outlook, but an upgrade may be needed in later outlooks.

...OH/TN Valleys...
A plume of moderate to high PWs is forecast extend along the frontal
zone from the Mid-South northeastward through the middle OH Valley
Monday morning. A shortwave trough is expected to progress through
the base of a stacked cyclone moving from the Upper Midwest into
the Upper Great Lakes. This shortwave will encourage an eastward
push to the cold front, while also contributing to strengthening
mid-level flow across the region. The stronger winds will likely be
confined to the mid/upper OH Valley, and mostly behind the front,
with the most likely area of some overlap over OH and PA. However,
this region will be displaced north of the better buoyancy, which is anticipated farther south over KY and TN. This displacement should
temper the overall storm severity, but occasionally strong to severe
are still possible throughout this entire corridor. Scattered
damaging winds will be the primary risk, although lower-probability
tornado and isolated severe hail risks also exist.

...Southern High Plains...
The airmass across the region will likely begin the period behind
the outflow of an extensive overnight MCS. However, these relatively
cool and dry conditions are expected to modify quickly amid strong
heating. A sharpening lee trough will also encourage backing
low-level flow throughout the day, from northerly to easterly (or
even southeasterly), with some low-level moisture advection
possible. These factors could allow convection that initially
develops over the higher terrain to persist eastward/southeastward
into more of the High Plains, with an attendant threat for strong
gusts. The modifying outflow could act as a favorable corridor for
forward propagation and increase damaging gust potential during the evening.

...Southwest/Central/Southeast TX...
The outflow of an extensive overnight MCS will likely arc from
northern LA through central TX into southwest TX early Monday
morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible along this boundary as
it gradually shifts southward throughout the day. Highest
thunderstorm coverage is expected across southeast TX, with warm
low/mid-levels and associated capping should limit the overall
thunderstorm coverage westward. Isolated hail and damaging gusts are
possible with any storms that develop.

...Northwest TX...
Isolated elevated convection may form with weak low-level warm
theta-e advection north of the front on Monday. Sufficient effective
bulk shear and elevated buoyancy may exist for a few storms capable
of severe hail.

..Mosier.. 06/08/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 090551
SWODY2
SPC AC 090550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon Jun 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TX TRANS-PECOS...

...SUMMARY...
The most likely corridor for a few severe storms, primarily in the
form of large hail, is across the Texas Trans-Pecos during the late
afternoon Tuesday. Isolated severe thunderstorms are also possible
on Tuesday into Tuesday evening along parts of the East Coast, from
southeast New Mexico to south Louisiana, and in parts of the Northwest.

...Southeast NM and southwest TX...
Strong heating is anticipated over the region Tuesday along the
western periphery of seasonably rich low-level moisture. Combined
with steep mid-level lapse rates, large buoyancy with MLCAPE of
2500-3000 J/kg is expected. A low-amplitude shortwave trough will
approach the region during the afternoon. In combination with
diurnal orographic ascent, scattered to eventually widespread
thunderstorm development is anticipated. A narrow belt of moderate
mid-level westerlies, centered on the Trans-Pecos, should support a
few supercells in the late afternoon. Large hail will likely be the
primary hazard with sub-10 percent coverage of very large hail
possible. Outside of the Trans-Pecos, sporadic severe wind/hail will
be possible with low confidence on organized upscale growth along
the Rio Grande on Tuesday evening.

...South-central TX to south LA...
A loosely-organized MCS should be ongoing in south-central TX at 12Z
Tuesday. Within a weakly forced and nebulous large-scale pattern,
guidance has a fair amount of spread with subsequent evolution
through the day Tuesday. It is plausible that intensification may
occur by midday along the residual outflow, along with downstream
development towards a quasi-stationary front in LA. Deep-layer shear
will be modest, especially outside of any localized enhancement near
the remnant MCV. Confidence is too low to warrant greater than level
1-MRGL risk probabilities at this time, but isolated severe
wind/hail remains possible.

...Mid/South Atlantic Coast...
A broad mid/upper trough will extend from eastern ON to the OH/TN
Valleys at 12Z Tuesday. The southern extent of this trough will
gradually dampen through the period with slowly rising mid-level
heights. A broad rain swath with embedded thunderstorms is expected
to be ongoing from the Mid-Atlantic northward, where stronger
deep-layer flow will exist. Diurnal destabilization appears quite
limited and locally strong gusts might occur along the southern
periphery of this morning activity.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible into the afternoon along parts
of the South Atlantic Coastal Plain. Despite ample boundary-layer moisture/heating, poor mid-level lapse rates will limit updraft
intensity and overall convective coverage. Locally strong gusts
capable of wind damage will be possible with any sustained storms.
Coverage is likely to be less compared to recent days.

...Northwest...
Low-amplitude mid/upper ridging will break down as a shortwave
trough progresses into northern CA/southwest OR by 12Z Wednesday. As
this process occurs, mid to upper-level flow will become more
westerly with moderate speed shear across the northern Rockies.
Despite weak buoyancy, scattered high-based thunderstorms are
expected. The strongest of these may attain low-end supercell
structure from western to south-central MT during the late afternoon
to early evening. Across southern OR, strengthening large-scale
ascent with approach of the shortwave trough should support
scattered late afternoon to evening storms. High-based multicells to
a couple brief supercells are possible. Isolated, marginally severe
wind/hail events may occur in both regimes.

..Grams.. 06/09/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 120519
SWODY2
SPC AC 120518

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
MONTANA INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms may occur Friday from Montana into the
central Plains, with hail and corridors of damaging winds possible.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will move across the Pacific Northwest during the
day and into the northern Rockies late, with an upper ridge building
from northern Mexico into AZ/NM. Meanwhile, modest westerly flow
aloft will exist over the Northeast as a weak disturbance moves
across AR/MO and into the mid MS/Lower OH Valleys.

At the surface, low pressure will exist across the Great Basin with
a southwest flow regime south of the upper trough, with a lee trough
along the length of the High Plains. Increasing boundary layer
theta-e will spread into the High Plains via southeast winds,
resulting in an elongated area of scattered severe storm potential
during the afternoon and evening.

...MT into the central High Plains...
Strong heating will occur over much of west-central/southwest MT,
and extending into WY CO and NM, as well as western NE/KS/TX-OK
Panhandles, resulting in steep lapse rates. Meanwhile, southeast
surface winds will bring moisture northwestward into the High
Plains, with a large area of moderate instability developing.

Storms are expected to form by 21Z over western MT, with additional
storms into eastern WY/northeast CO. These will likely produce hail
and areas of damaging wind. Other isolated storms are likely all the
way south into eastern NM/western TX.

Elsewhere, strong instability and ample moisture may result in
scattered strong storms over much of MO, AR, LA, MS and vicinity,
though the likelihood of ongoing early storms and outflows results
in low predictability at this time. Locally strong gusts may occur.

..Jewell.. 06/12/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 130559
SWODY2
SPC AC 130558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and isolated damaging
wind gusts will be possible across parts of the central and northern
High Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. Marginally severe storms
will also be possible in parts of southern and central Plains.

...Central and Northern High Plains...
A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the north-central U.S.
on Saturday. In the wake of the ridge, a subtle shortwave trough
will move into the central and northern High Plains. At the surface,
a moist airmass will be present across much of the Great Plains.
Upslope flow will be in place over the central and northern High
Plains, where a pocket of moderate to strong instability is forecast
to develop Saturday afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during
the day, convection will first initiate in the higher terrain from
east-central Montana southeastward to the Black Hills. From this
convection, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move
eastward into the lower elevations of the central and northern High Plains.

An impressive thermodynamic environment is forecast to be in place
by Saturday afternoon from northeast Wyoming into western Nebraska,
where model forecasts suggest MLCAPE could peak around 4000 J/kg.
Near the instability maximum, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to
be near 8 C/km. In spite of this, forecast soundings in the central
and northern High Plains have a capping inversion in place during
the afternoon. This should keep the initial convective development
confined to the higher terrain of southeast Montana, northeast
Wyoming and southwestern South Dakota. Forecasts soundings late
Saturday afternoon in this area mostly have 0-6 km shear in the 30
to 40 knot range, mainly due to mid-level speed shear. The shear,
combined with the moderate to strong instability, will likely
support a severe threat. Supercells should be capable of isolated
large hail and severe wind gusts. The threat is expected to persist
into the mid to late evening, as low-level flow increases.

...Southern and Central Plains...
A mid-level ridge will move eastward across the Great Plains on
Saturday. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across
much of the southern and central Plains. As surface temperatures
warm during the day, moderate instability is forecast to develop
throughout much of this airmass. Due to the presence of the ridge,
large-scale ascent will remain weak in most areas. In spite of this,
isolated thunderstorms may still develop in areas where low-level
convergence and surface heating are maximized, and further west in
the higher terrain of the central and southern High Plains. Forecast
soundings late Saturday afternoon across the southern and central
Plains generally have large surface-temperature dewpoint spreads
with steep lapse rates. This environment will also have sufficient
deep-layer shear for isolated severe storms. Hail and marginally
severe wind gusts are expected to be the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 06/13/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 180556
SWODY2
SPC AC 180554

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Jun 18 2025

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF NEW
ENGLAND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are forecast on Thursday
from parts of New England into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas.

...Synopsis...
A seasonably deep mid/upper-level trough is forecast to move from
the lower Great Lakes region into the Northeast and Mid Atlantic on
Thursday. A surface low will move across parts of Quebec during the
day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves across parts of New
England, the Mid Atlantic, and Carolinas/Southeast.

An upstream midlevel shortwave trough will move across parts of
northern MN into WI and upper MI by evening. An amplified
mid/upper-level trough will move gradually eastward across the
western CONUS, as an upper-level ridge initially over the southern
Rockies begins to break down and shift eastward. In response to this
trough, a surface low will gradually deepen across the northern High
Plains.

...New England into the Mid Atlantic/Southeast...
Relatively rich low-level moisture will stream northward ahead of
the front approaching New England and the Mid Atlantic during the
day on Thursday. Moderate buoyancy may develop as far north as
northern NY/VT, with pockets of stronger heating/destabilization
farther south into the Mid Atlantic and Carolinas/Southeast.

The strongest deep-layer flow/shear is still expected from
PA/northern NJ northward into New England, where wind profiles will
be conditionally supportive of supercells and organized bowing
segments. Damaging winds and perhaps a tornado could accompany the
strongest storms in this area.

Farther south into the southern Mid Atlantic and Carolinas,
deep-layer flow will be somewhat unidirectional and weaker, but
still sufficient for some organized convection. Clusters capable of
producing scattered wind damage will be possible, especially in
areas where stronger diurnal heating/destabilization occurs.

Deep-layer flow will be rather weak into parts of MS/AL/GA/SC, but
the glancing influence of the mid/upper-level trough and relatively
large MLCAPE and PW will support storms capable of producing
isolated strong/damaging gusts.

...Southwest MT and vicinity...
Weak midlevel height falls are still expected across parts of
western MT Thursday afternoon/evening, in response to the
approaching mid/upper-level trough. Low-level moisture will remain
limited, but strong diurnal heating will support high-based storm
development. Steep low-level lapse rates and relatively strong
midlevel flow will result in potential for isolated severe gusts
during the afternoon and evening as convection spreads eastward.

...Upper Midwest...
Low-level warm advection related to the southeastward-moving
midlevel shortwave trough may aid in storm development on Thursday
from northern MN into parts of WI and upper MI. Moderate instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear will support potential for a few
stronger cells/clusters capable of producing large hail and damaging
wind. Additional strong to locally severe storms may redevelop later
Thursday night across parts of this region, in response to a
nocturnally strengthening low-level jet.

...Northern Plains...
Diurnal heating of an increasingly moist airmass will result in
moderate to strong buoyancy across parts of the northern Plains by
Thursday afternoon. Deep-layer shear will be sufficient for
organized storms, but diurnal storm development remains highly
uncertain amid background midlevel height rises associated with a
building ridge. Development of a storm or two cannot be ruled out
through evening near a surface trough/weak dryline. Elevated storm
coverage may increase somewhat Thursday night in response to a
strengthening low-level jet, which could pose a threat of hail and
localized strong gusts.

..Dean.. 06/18/2025

$$

---
* SLMR 2.1a
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 190602
SWODY2
SPC AC 190600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jun 19 2025

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms may develop Friday into Friday night across
parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. Significant severe
weather is possible.

...Synopsis...
A seasonably deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move across the
Pacific Northwest on Friday, as the attendant large-scale trough
begins to impinge on the central/northern Great Plains. Downstream,
an upper ridge will gradually shift eastward from the southern
Plains toward the lower MS Valley.

A surface low will deepen across the northern High Plains, with
increasing low-level moisture expected near and east of the low and
trailing dryline/surface trough, and also near/north of a warm front
that will extend east/northeast of the low.

...Dakotas into the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
Strong to extreme buoyancy will develop Friday afternoon across much
of the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Warming
temperatures aloft will result in substantial capping across the
warm sector, and coverage/location of storms within an otherwise
volatile environment remains very uncertain.

Most guidance suggests a mid/upper-level shortwave will emerge from
the western trough and move across the northern Plains sometime
during the afternoon/evening, though differences remain regarding
the timing and amplitude of this shortwave. This shortwave trough
could aid in isolated storm development by late afternoon/early
evening, primarily near or north of the surface low and warm front.
Veering wind profiles will support supercells, with a conditional
threat for very large hail, isolated severe gusts, and also some
tornado potential if any supercells can become surface-based.

Some increase in storm coverage is expected Friday evening into the
overnight, in response to a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet.
Initial development within this regime could be supercellular, with
potential for upscale growth with time. An intense MCS capable of
producing significant severe gusts could evolve with time. Even if
this does not occur, one or more smaller clusters may develop and
track east-southeastward north of the warm front, with very large
buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear supporting a threat of
large to very large hail and severe gusts.

Greater severe probabilities may be needed if confidence increases
regarding a sufficient coverage of supercells, and/or development of
an intense MCS.

...Montana...
Low-level easterly flow will support some moistening across much of
MT on Friday, though guidance continues to vary regarding the
magnitude of destabilization during the afternoon and evening.
Large-scale ascent associated with the approaching mid/upper-level
trough will support scattered storm development across western MT
during the afternoon, with sufficient deep-layer shear for some
storm organization. Depending on the extent of downstream
destabilization, some threat for strong to potentially severe storms
may spread into parts of central/eastern MT Friday evening. Greater
severe probabilities may be needed into parts of western/central MT
depending on trends regarding destabilization.

...South-central High Plains...
High-based convection may develop Friday afternoon across parts of
CO/NM, within a very warm and well-mixed environment. While this
convection should generally be disorganized, localized severe gusts
could accompany this convection before it subsides during the
evening.

...Lower Great Lakes...
A northwesterly flow regime will become established across the lower
Great Lakes vicinity on Friday. While large-scale ascent will remain
rather nebulous, and destabilization is expected to be rather
modest, elongated hodographs will conditionally support some storm organization. A few strong storms capable of locally gusty winds and
perhaps marginal hail cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and
evening.

..Dean.. 06/19/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 020601
SWODY2
SPC AC 020600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Tue Sep 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
A risk of severe storms exists for portions of the central Plains.
Severe wind and hail are the primary threats, and an instance or two
of 2+ inch diameter hail is also possible.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will rapidly amplify across the MS Valley region
while upper ridging persists over the Interior West tomorrow
(Wednesday). The central U.S. will be located within a deep-layer
northwesterly flow regime. A surface cold front will surge southward
across the central Plains, acting as a low-level lifting source (via convergence) for seasonal low-level moisture over the region. At
least scattered strong thunderstorms are expected ahead of the cold
front during the afternoon. Given strong flow/shear and colder
temperatures aloft overspreading the pre-frontal airmass with the
passage of an embedded impulse, some of the storms are expected to
be severe.

...Central Plains...
As the surface cold front approaches central and eastern KS from the
north, surface temperatures may exceed 80 F amid mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints. With 7-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading this
airmass, MLCAPE may reach as high as 2500 J/kg in spots.
Kinematically speaking, veering low-level flow, overspread by strong northwesterlies will yield curved and elongated hodographs with
40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. The stronger storms are expected
to become supercells, accompanied by severe wind and hail. There are
some indications that a couple of stronger, sustained supercells may
develop across eastern KS during the late afternoon to early evening
hours. Given both the vertical shear profiles and colder
temperatures aloft, a couple instances of 2+ inch hail and perhaps a
tornado are possible.

..Squitieri.. 09/02/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 210617
SWODY2
SPC AC 210616

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 AM CDT Sun Sep 21 2025

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND THE
EASTERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across
portions of the central and southern High Plains.

...Synopsis...
On Monday, a mid-level trough will move from the upper
Midwest/Missouri Valley to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley during the
period. Farther west, a more complicated pattern will develop as a
ridge builds into the Pacific Northwest. As this ridge builds, a
mid-level jet streak will be shunted south across the central
Rockies. This will deepen a mid-level low with a closed circulation
likely developing across the central High Plains region by 12Z
Tuesday. In addition, a closed low will persist off the southern
California coast for much of the period. High pressure will be
present across much of the western CONUS with weak lee troughing
along the central and southern High Plains. The surface pattern will
be somewhat less defined farther east with a weak remnant front
likely through the Upper Midwest to the western Great Lakes. High
pressure will dominate areas east of the Appalachians.

...Central Plains...
Moderate to strong instability will develop by Monday afternoon in
the wake of a morning MCS across Oklahoma/Kansas. Forecast soundings
show a strongly capped airmass across Kansas/Oklahoma and given the
relatively weak forcing amid modest height falls, do not expect much thunderstorm development until after 00Z. After this time, the
mid-level trough will start to overspread the Plains with a
strengthening low-level jet potentially approaching 50 knots.
Cooling temperatures aloft and strong isentropic ascent should
result in thunderstorm development after sunset Monday evening. Seep
mid-level lapse rates and strengthening effective shear (40 to 50
knots) will support the potential for supercells with some hail
threat. As upscale growth continues, the severe wind threat should
increase and continue into the overnight period into portions of central/northern Oklahoma.

...NE/IA to Lake Michigan...
Diurnal thunderstorm development is possible along a diffuse frontal
zone from Nebraska to southern Wisconsin. Modest lapse rates and
moderate instability along this zone will support some multicells
capable of some hail or damaging wind gusts. However, mostly weak
deep-layer shear (20 knots) and weak upper forcing should keep the
overall threat along this zone relatively isolated.

...Tennessee Valley to the eastern Great Lakes...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
Ohio Valley on Monday with moderate instability forecast ahead of
it. An uncapped airmass and some moderate upper-level support in a
broader zone of weak, but persistent isentropic ascent should
support scattered thunderstorm development. Lapse rates will be
poor, but modest effective shear amid 30 to 35 knots of mid-level
flow may support some organized multicells capable of damaging wind
gusts Monday afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 09/21/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 220559
SWODY2
SPC AC 220557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...AND MUCH OF ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible from the southern Plains to the
Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Strongest thunderstorm activity is
expected across eastern Oklahoma into northeastern Texas and
Arkansas, where supercells capable of all severe hazards are
possible by afternoon.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted mid-level trough will begin the period across
eastern Colorado and shift east through the day to the Missouri
Valley region by 12Z Wednesday. A 40 to 50 knot mid-level jet streak
associated with overnight convection Monday night across KS/OK will
shift east across MO/AR during the day Tuesday and gradually weaken.
In its wake, the primary mid-level jet streak will emerge across
Oklahoma and strengthen Tuesday night as it moves from Oklahoma into
Arkansas. A weak surface low is forecast to be across northwest
Oklahoma Tuesday morning. This surface low and its associated cold
front will drift slowly east through the day.

...Eastern Oklahoma into much of Arkansas and northeast Texas...
A large MCS will likely be ongoing Tuesday morning across eastern
Kansas, southwest Missouri, and northeast Oklahoma on the nose of a
40 to 50 knot low-level jet. As the low-level jet weakens during the
morning and storms move east of the greatest shear/instability,
expect the MCS to weaken. Some isolated damaging wind gusts may
persist across northern Arkansas/southern Missouri and into TN/KY,
but expect this activity to remain mostly sub-severe.

The primary severe weather concern will be Tuesday afternoon/evening
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Strong instability is
forecast across this region in the wake of the morning MCS as cool
temperatures aloft overspread low to mid 70s dewpoints. RAP/NAM
forecast soundings show only modest heating is necessary to erode
inhibition. Therefore, expect additional thunderstorm development
during the afternoon along and ahead of the cold front as it moves
across Oklahoma. Storm motion orthogonal to the front should favor
movement along and perhaps off of the front and into the warm
sector. Therefore, all severe hazards will be possible across this
region in a favorable environment featuring strong instability,
moderate deep-layer shear, and elongating, cyclonically curved
hodographs.

A conditional, potentially more volatile tornado threat is possible
across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas if significant
destabilization can occur north of any outflow boundary left by
morning convection. 03Z RAP/00Z NAM forecast soundings near Fort
Smith capture this conditional environment well and would
potentially support strong tornadoes. However, this evolution is
highly dependent on the evolution of Day 1 convection across Kansas
and Oklahoma which still remains unclear. In addition, the time
window for this favorable environment would be narrow which also
adds conditionality to the risk. This scenario will be monitored
closely and a Level 3/Enhanced Risk may be justified in later
outlooks if this scenario appears more likely.

...Central Texas...
Moderate instability is forecast across central/northern Texas
Tuesday afternoon with eroding inhibition by mid-afternoon. Shear
will be relatively weak, but will increase during the
afternoon/evening as the mid-level jet streak drifts south. The most
favorable zone for thunderstorm development will be the triple point
where the cold front and dryline intersect across North Texas.
However, additional isolated storms may also develop along the
dryline and cold front. Isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threat from these storms Tuesday
afternoon/evening.

...Tennessee Valley...
A weak warm front may be a focus for storm development Tuesday afternoon/evening across western/middle Tennessee as moderate
instability develops across the region. Deep-layer shear should
remain quite weak (less than 20 knots) as the primary mid-level jet
streak remains farther west. However, a few stronger storms capable
of damaging wind gusts may develop during the afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 09/22/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 170601
SWODY2
SPC AC 170600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
TO THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday across parts of
the Ark-La-Tex, Ozarks, mid Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys.
Damaging winds, a few tornadoes and hail are possible.

...Synopsis...
A broad upper trough over the central US is forecast to deepen
throughout Saturday as several peripheral shortwave features
coalesce over the central MS Valley. The most prominent of these
features will start the period over the southern Rockies before
phasing with the broader trough across the southern Plains Saturday
night. A powerful 100+ kt mid-level jet exiting the central
Rockies/High Plains will round the base of the consolidated trough
helping to rapidly deepen a surface low over the OH Valley and Lower
Great Lakes. A cold front with strong southerly flow ahead of it
will sweep eastward from the OH/MS Valleys into the Mid South
overnight supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms.

...Ohio Valley to the Ozarks...
Mid-level ascent with an embedded perturbation will expand over the
slow-moving cold front initially positioned from the Ozarks to the
Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley early Saturday. Southerly flow will
allow for substantial moistening as low to mid 60s F surface
dewpoints move northward across MO/IL, into western KY and OH and
eventually Lower MI. Continued low-level warm advection should
result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms along the front by mid
afternoon into the evening. While buoyancy should be limited
(500-1000 J/kg) owing to increasing storm coverage and cloud cover,
elongated mid/upper-level hodographs with largely unidirectional
shear will favor some potential for organized short line segments.
This activity should generally become more organized into the
afternoon/evening as the cold front strengthens and surges eastward
as the upper trough and surface low organize. This will support a
risk for damaging gusts and perhaps a couple embedded tornadoes
should a more coherent QLCS develop and persist overnight.

...Southern Plains to the Mid MS Valley...
Ahead of the primary southern stream shortwave trough, rich
low-level moisture will advect northward across parts of TX/OK into
the central and lower MS Valley. While some potential exists for
early morning convection to modulate the environment, current
guidance suggests diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE ~ 2000 J/kg) is
likely ahead of surface trough trailing the developing low farther
north. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the
afternoon from northern AR into eastern OK and North TX with the
potential for supercell structures capable of damaging gusts and
hail initially.

With time, the surface cold front over the southern Plains should
begin to surge eastward as the advancing shortwave trough phases
with the strengthening upper trough. Vertical shear will increase
substantially as the mid-level jet streak noses into the Mid South
fostering strong low-level mass response. The cold front will likely
outpace and overtake the surface trough and ongoing convection
supporting rapid upscale growth into a squall line across the
central MS Valley Saturday evening into the early overnight hours.
While uncertainty about the degree of instability given the
overnight timing remains, strengthening low-level wind fields and
mid 60s F dewpoints may delay boundary-layer decoupling long enough
to support a damaging wind and embedded tornado threat overnight as
the QLCS moves eastward.

..Lyons.. 10/17/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 230554
SWODY2
SPC AC 230553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms with damaging winds and hail are
possible centered over western and central Texas, from mid-afternoon
Friday into Friday night.

...Synopsis..
A broad, and somewhat disjointed positive-tilt upper trough with
multiple embedded impulses is forecast to move from the Southwest
and Southern Rockies into the Plains Friday and Friday night. As the
trough advances eastward, enhanced southwesterly flow will
overspread a moistening air mass across parts of western and central
TX into southern OK. A lee trough and cold front trailing a weak
surface low over the TX Panhandle will serve as a focus for
scattered storm development Friday afternoon and Friday evening
across much of the southern Pains.

...Trans Pecos into central TX...
Ahead of the southern most mid-level impulse, ascent will increase
through the day eroding weak inhibition over parts of southwestern
and central TX. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport mid 60s
to low 70s F surface dewpoints westward, supporting moderate
destabilization over the Pecos Valley northward to the TX South
Plains. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop along the lee
trough and advancing cold front by mid afternoon, spreading east
northeastward. Veering wind profiles with 40+ kt of deep-layer shear
should support a mix of supercells and clusters/line segments
capable of hail, damaging winds, and a tornado or two.

Given the weak inhibition, persistent ascent, and increasing storm
coverage, upscale growth into a large MCS is likely across the
Edwards Plateau to central TX vicinity Friday night. This should
support a continued isolated severe wind/hail threat into the early
Saturday.

...TX Panhandle into southern OK and western North TX...
Farther north, uncertainty is much higher regarding surface-based destabilization. Scattered to widespread elevated convection will be
ongoing at 12Z Friday from the eastern TX Panhandle, Red River
Valley into KS, with remnant cloud cover likely to impact diurnal
heating. An east-west baroclinic boundary is likely to become
established serving as the northern effective limit for the
surface-based warm sector. As mid-level ascent increases, scattered
to numerous storms are likely to develop through the afternoon and
evening. Some of these storms may be elevated north of the boundary.
While a messy storm mode with numerous interactions are likely,
at-least isolated hail and damaging winds appear probable from the
eastern TX Panhandle across southeastern OK and North TX Friday and
Friday night.

..Lyons.. 10/23/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 240558
SWODY2
SPC AC 240557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday
into Saturday night, from southeast Texas to southern Louisiana.

...Synopsis...
A broad positive-tilt upper trough over the Rio Grande Valley will
gradually strengthen while moving eastward over central TX Saturday
through Saturday night. Ascent attendant to a strong embedded
shortwave/jet will round the base of the trough and overspread
robust moisture over the northwest Gulf Coast and lower MS Valley.
While early morning thunderstorms are likely to complicate the
forecast, a remnant outflow boundary may serve as a focus for
renewed severe storm development across southeast TX and LA Saturday
afternoon through Saturday night.

...TX/LA...
Early in the day, an expansive MCS is likely to be ongoing across east/southeast TX. This activity is likely to continue moving
southeastward toward the Gulf Coast, with an isolated wind and
tornado threat. In the wake of the MCS, outflow will stall and
gradually lift back northward, allowing for some air mass recovery
east of the dryline across far south TX. Low 70s F surface dewpoints
and strong heating should support moderate buoyancy by mid
afternoon. The approach of the basal shortwave and mid-level jet
will support additional storm development with veering wind profiles
and 40+ kt of deep-layer shear favoring supercells and organized
clusters. With most of the activity expected to occur along and
north of the recovering outflow, these storms may be elevated above
the surface. This would favor a risk mainly for large hail given
cool mid-level temperatures.

As forcing intensifies ahead of the deepening trough, upscale growth
is again expected late Saturday evening and overnight. An MCS may
develop and track eastward along the remnant outflow across
southeast TX into southern LA. A threat for damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes may continue overnight as surface moisture and low-level
shear remain stout beneath a strengthening low-level jet across the
Lower Sabine and MS Valley. While some uncertainty remains regarding destabilization, boundary layer separation is likely to be delayed
with continued low-level warm advection off the Gulf overnight.

..Lyons.. 10/24/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 060632
SWODY2
SPC AC 060631

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CST Thu Nov 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN MIDDLE TN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly Friday midday to
evening, from the central Gulf Coast to the Ohio Valley. A mesoscale
corridor of more concentrated severe hail potential is forecast
across Middle Tennessee and south-central Kentucky.

...Synopsis...
An expansive mid/upper trough will dominate the Northwest to the
central and eventually eastern CONUS on Friday, with several
embedded shortwave impulses. One impulse with an attendant mid-level
jetlet will progress from the Lower MO Valley to the central
Appalachians. The trailing portion of a cold front, attendant to a
southeast Canadian cyclone, should extend across the Lower Great
Lakes to Mid-South by early evening.

...Central Gulf Coast to the OH Valley...
Midday to mid-afternoon convection should generally be focused
across both the far northern and far southern extents of the
highlighted level 1-MRGL risk area.

The northern one across the OH Valley will be within the primary
low-level warm conveyor ahead of the aforementioned cold front, as
meager surface-based instability develops southeast of morning
elevated convection. Fast low to mid-level flow will be sufficient
for mainly localized damaging winds as low-topped clusters push east
towards the central Appalachians.

The southern one will be across the central Gulf Coast region where
an uncapped boundary layer in conjunction with weak mid-level height falls/low-level warm theta-e advection should support isolated storm
coverage. While south of the 50+ kt mid-level westerlies over the
Mid-South/TN Valley, a couple supercells are possible.

Towards late afternoon and early evening, storm coverage may
increase southwestward from the OH Valley into the TN Valley. MLCAPE
will likely remain weak with rich low-level moisture remaining
confined to the southern Lower MS Valley. Still, strong deep-layer
shear and favorable hodograph elongation will yield supercell wind
profiles. Guidance does differ with the degree of storm coverage,
but enough signal exists for initial storms capable of severe hail
before potential clustering. Subsiding large-scale ascent and the
lack of greater instability should yield diminishing severe
potential Friday night in the Deep South.

..Grams.. 11/06/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 230654
SWODY2
SPC AC 230652

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN EAST TEXAS TO
FAR SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from later Monday
afternoon into Monday night across east Texas towards the
Ark-La-Miss. A few tornadoes along with large hail and damaging
winds are anticipated.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level shortwave trough will traverse the central/southern
states on Monday with a second mid-level trough advancing from the
Northwest to the northern Plains. At the surface, high pressure will
dominate much of the eastern CONUS with broad low pressure across
the Plains and Upper Midwest. A warm front near the Gulf Coast
Monday morning will lift north through the day.

...East Texas to southern Arkansas...
Elevated thunderstorms will be ongoing at the beginning of the
period from north-central Texas to southern Arkansas to the north of
a warm front. Isolated large hail is possible with these storms, but
a more widespread threat is not expected during the morning. The
warm front will advect northward quickly through the day and lead to
moderate destabilization across the warm sector. A messy storm mode
is expected along the warm front for much of the day with some
marginal severe threat. The greatest severe weather threat should
begin by mid-afternoon as height falls overspread the warm sector
and slight mid-level cooling results in an uncapped warm sector.
This should result in scattered supercell development within the
open warm-sector by late afternoon. A strengthening low-level jet
(40-45 knots) is expected to overspread the warm sector during this
same timeframe. This may result in a brief window during the late
afternoon to early evening where a few tornadoes (perhaps strong)
could occur.

A nocturnal wind/tornado threat may persist into the late
evening/overnight period as rich low-level moisture will help to
maintain an unstable boundary layer into the overnight period where cyclonically curved low-level hodographs will persist.

..Bentley.. 11/23/2025

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 080701
SWODY2
SPC AC 080659

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF LA/MS
AND ADJACENT PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AR AND WESTERN/NORTHERN AL...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday from Louisiana into
parts of the Mid-South and Southeast.

...East TX into the Lower MS Valley and Mid-South...
In the wake of a departing mid/upper shortwave trough and surface
low, a cold front is forecast to slow down by afternoon and perhaps
become nearly stationary from near the ArkLaTex region to the
Mid-South. As an upstream mid/upper trough approaches from the west, cyclogenesis is expected along this front, with the surface low
expected to move east-northeastward toward the TN Valley by Saturday morning.

Seasonably rich low-level moisture will be in place within the warm
sector of this cyclone, and low-level and deep-layer shear will
increase with time as the frontal wave develops. However, guidance
continues to vary somewhat regarding the extent of phasing between
the approaching shortwave trough across the southern Plains and a
strong shortwave trough digging southeastward from the Canadian
Prairies. There are also varying solutions regarding the coverage of
early-day convection, and the extent to which it hampers warm-sector destabilization as low-level and deep-layer shear strengthens.

Early-day storms within the modest warm-advection regime from east
TX into the lower MS Valley could pose a low-probability threat of
all severe hazards. An increase in the severe potential could evolve
from late afternoon into the evening, as low-level and deep-layer
shear begin to strengthen in response to the approaching trough.
Organized clusters and a few supercells will be possible, with an
attendant damaging-wind and tornado threat that may continue into
late Friday night. However, if early-day convection becomes
widespread with increasingly prominent outflow (as indicated by some
00Z HREF members), the magnitude and north/east extent of the
organized severe threat may be relatively limited. The greatest
relative confidence in an organized severe threat is currently
across parts of LA into central/southern MS, with a more conditional
threat to the north and east of this area.

..Dean.. 01/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 241722
SWODY2
SPC AC 241720

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF FAR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO SOUTHERN ALABAMA...SOUTHERN GEORGIA...AND
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf
Coast states Sunday morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are the main concerns.

...Synopsis...
A surface low will traverse the Gulf Coast states tomorrow (Sunday)
morning and early afternoon, before ejecting northeast toward the
Mid Atlantic as a mid-level trough deepens east of the MS River. A
constrained warm sector will become established ahead of a
progressive surface cold front and south of a warm front over
southeast MS into southern AL/GA during the morning/early afternoon
hours. Strong flow aloft will overspread this warm sector, resulting
in enough overlapping buoyancy and vertical wind shear to support a
severe threat along the Gulf Coast.

...Southeast Gulf Coast States...
Thunderstorms should be ongoing at the start of the period (12Z
Sunday) across parts of LA/MS, and should begin focusing into a
linear band along/immediately ahead of a cold front with the
development of the surface low. A warm front will be positioned
somewhere over the southern third of AL/MS Sunday morning,
delineating the warm sector to the south, characterized by mid to
upper 60s F surface temperatures and mid 60s F dewpoints.
Tropospheric lapse rates should be meager though (i.e. 5.5-6 C/km),
resulting in thin buoyancy profiles. However, nearly 100 kt
west-southwesterly 500 mb flow atop a 60+ kt southwesterly low-level
jet overspreading the warm front (with locally backed winds) will
support large, elongated hodographs with at least modest low-level
curvature. As such, a high shear/low-CAPE parameter space will
precede an intensifying QLCS through Sunday morning/early afternoon
across southeast MS into southern AL and GA, where and when the
severe threat is expected to be greatest.

While strong linear forcing will support a QLCS, minimal MLCINH
ahead of the front suggests that a couple of low-topped supercells
cannot be ruled out. While MLCAPE may struggle to exceed 500 J/kg
over most locales, widespread 60+ kts of effective bulk shear and
400+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH should support some threat for damaging gusts
and at least a few tornadoes. The best chance for tornadoes will be
with storms interacting with the warm front, where low-level
hodograph curvature will be maximized. If a sustained supercell
manages to develop, a strong tornado cannot be ruled out as the
storm crosses the warm front. Later Sunday afternoon, the surface
low and forcing for ascent will drift away from the warm sector.
With a wedge front also expected to stall warm sector recovery from
central GA north/northeastward, the severe threat should wane
through the day.

..Squitieri.. 01/24/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 180601
SWODY2
SPC AC 180600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...PARTS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms, with potential to produce a few tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts, are possible across parts of the middle
Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening.

...Discussion...
There remains notable spread evident in the latest model output
concerning a number of synoptic and sub-synoptic developments within
the evolving pattern across North America through this period. In
general, though, guidance continues to indicate that larger-scale
mid-level troughing will slowly begin to shift inland of the Pacific
coast Thursday through Thursday night, while being maintained
downstream across the Rockies, Great Plains and Mississippi Valley,
and slowly developing toward the lower Great Lakes and Appalachians
vicinity. As this occurs, the center of a mid-level subtropical
ridge is likely to shift from the southern Gulf Basin into the Bahamas/Caribbean, with its northern periphery maintaining an
influence across parts of the Southeast.

A couple of initially lower amplitude short wave perturbations,
within a seasonably strong belt of flow emerging from the Southwest,
may be in the process of progressing into and across the central
Great Plains toward the middle Mississippi and lower Ohio Valleys at
the outset of the period. The lead perturbation, probably
accompanied by a 500 mb speed maximum of 90-100+ kts, is forecast to
continue into and across the lower Ohio Valley during the day, as
the trailing one pivots northeastward and perhaps intensifies across
the middle Mississippi Valley toward southern Great Lakes region
later Thursday through Thursday night.

Associated with these developments, a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone is
forecast to migrate across and northeast of the lower Missouri
Valley during the day, perhaps slowly deepening, before continuing
toward the upper Great Lakes accompanied by more substantive
deepening Thursday night.

...Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley...
It appears that warming aloft, associated with subsidence to the
south of the trailing mid/upper jet, will tend to eventually
overspread the better (but still relatively modest) low-level
moisture return to the evolving warm sector across the lower Ohio
Valley. However, to still differing degrees, the latest runs of the
various model output indicate a window of opportunity for strong to
severe thunderstorm development, perhaps beginning by early
afternoon, aided by daytime heating and subtle mid-level
cooling/forcing for ascent accompanying the lead jet streak.

The consensus of latest guidance, supported by the High Resolution
Ensemble and related machine learning output, suggests that this may
initiate across portions of Illinois, near or to the north and east
of the Greater St. Louis area, with strongest activity tending to
develop eastward and perhaps peak while spreading across east
central and portions of southeastern Illinois through portions of
central and southern Indiana by early Thursday evening.

Forecast soundings across this corridor remain generally
characterized by at least modest convective instability, and CAPE on
the order of 500-750+ J/kg, in the presence of strong deep-layer
shear. Sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, beneath
40-50+ kt south to southwest flow in the 850-700 mb layer, may
promote supercells capable of producing severe hail and a few
tornadoes, and activity may eventually grow upscale enough to
support increasing potential for damaging wind gusts before
convection wanes late Thursday evening.

..Kerr.. 02/18/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 040658
SWODY2
SPC AC 040656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Wed Mar 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon and
into Thursday night from west Texas and the Texas Panhandle into
western Oklahoma and south-central Kansas. Large hail and severe
wind gusts, along with a couple tornadoes will be possible.

...West and Central Texas/Western Oklahoma/South-central Kansas...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain
West on Thursday, as flow remains southwesterly over the
south-central U.S. Moisture advection will take place across the
southern and central Plains. By midday, surface dewpoints will be in
the 50s and 60s F across the moist sector, as a dryline develops
over west Texas. Warming surface temperatures during the day will
result in the development of moderate instability to the east of the
dryline across much of west and central Texas northward into the
eastern Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma. By late afternoon,
convective initiation is expected near and just east of the dryline
on the Caprock of west Texas. These storms will grow upscale
quickly, with multiple convective clusters moving eastward into the
Low Rolling Plains of northwest Texas and into western Oklahoma.
Additional storms are expected to form in south-central Kansas
during the evening.

Due to the system in the western U.S. and the associated
southwesterly flow ahead of it, a strong low-level jet is forecast
to develop during the late afternoon and early evening across the
southern Plains. This feature will contribute to moderate deep-layer
shear over much of the southern High Plains. NAM forecast soundings
in the early evening from east of Lubbock northward into the Texas
Panhandle have gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels with
around 35 knots of 0-6 km shear. In addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates
are forecast to be in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This will be favorable
for supercells with large hail and isolated severe gusts. In the
late afternoon/early evening, 0-3 km storm-relative helicity is
forecast to be in the 250 to 300 m2/s2 range, which will likely
support a tornado threat with the most intense storms. As low-level
moisture increases across parts of southern and central Kansas
during the evening, additional strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop. A severe threat may eventually affect central
Oklahoma and central to eastern Kansas from mid evening into the
overnight period.

...Northern Kansas/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Western and Central Iowa...

Southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place over the central
U.S. on Thursday. In response, strong moisture advection will
continue from Thursday into Thursday night across the central Plains
and lower to mid Missouri Valley. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected develop across the region starting in the late evening,
with storm coverage steadily increasing during the overnight as a
low-level jet strengthens. Forecast soundings show a low-level
temperature inversion, but develop weak instability aloft, with
MUCAPE increasing into the 500 to 1200 J/kg range across much of
northern Kansas, eastern Nebraska, western Iowa and northwestern
Missouri. In addition, effective shear is forecast to increase into
the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment will favor the development
of elevated strong to severe thunderstorms, with isolated large hail
and marginally severe wind gusts. The threat is expected to persist
through late in the period.

..Broyles.. 03/04/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 060655
SWODY2
SPC AC 060653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Fri Mar 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO LOWER
GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from
Saturday morning into the evening across a broad swath of the
southern Great Plains to the Lower Great Lakes. Isolated very large
hail may occur in parts of Texas.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough, with multiple embedded shortwave
impulses, will migrate east across the Midwest and Great Lakes
regions on Saturday. Meanwhile, an upper low over the
Southwest/Lower CO Valley will continue to retrograde, becoming
positioned offshore from Baja CA by Sunday morning. At the surface,
low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes will deepen as it shifts
northeast across Ontario and Quebec. A trailing cold front will
extend south/southwest from the low toward the Lower MO Valley and
into north and central TX at the beginning of the period. This front
will sweep east/southeast across the Midwest and Mid-South/TN Valley
vicinity, while the Plains portion of the front develops southward
across TX.

...Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes vicinity...

Convection will be ongoing across portions of the region Saturday
morning along outflow positioned well ahead of the synoptic cold
front. Southwesterly low-level flow and the deepening surface
cyclone over the Great Lakes will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints across the region. Cloudiness and ongoing convection will
limit surface heating. However, strong deep-layer southwesterly flow
and modest destabilization (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg) will support
sustained thunderstorm development into the afternoon/evening.

The greatest risk for severe appears to be across the Upper Ohio
Valley where some stronger heating is possible. Sufficient low-level
speed shear will be present to enlarge low-level hodographs.
Furthermore, 0-1 km SRH values near 150 m2/s2 are noted in some
forecast soundings. However, linear convection is expected to be the
main storm mode given boundary-parallel deep-layer southwesterly
flow, promoting mainly a damaging wind risk. However, if any
cellular convection develops, an isolated risk for marginally severe
hail and a tornado or two also will be possible.

...TX into the Mid-South and Lower MS/TN Valleys...

Convection is expected to be ongoing near the surface front Saturday
morning. Some of this convection may be elevated as it quickly
becomes undercut by the cold front, especially near the Red River
into portions of AR. This activity may pose a risk for severe hail
early in the period across north TX into southeast OK and parts of
AR. Convection is expected to develop south and east along the front
through the day. The downstream warm sector will be characterized by
low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates,
supporting MLCAPE in the 500-1500 J/kg range. Linear convection will
be most predominant across the Mid-South into the TN valley where a
risk for isolated to scattered wind damage and marginal hail will
exist through the afternoon before a weakening trend ensues after
sunset across the Deep South.

Across TX, steeper midlevel lapse rates are forecast. Low level flow
is expected to remain modest further removed from the upper
shortwave trough and surface cyclone across the Midwest/Great Lakes.
However, stronger heating, steeper low and midlevel lapse rates, and
favorable wind profiles for organized supercells will support a
corridor of severe hail potential from central TX toward southwest
AR/northwest LA near the undercutting cold front. The strongest
storms could produce hail in the 1.5-2 inch range.

..Leitman.. 03/06/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/1)

ACUS02 KWNS 080615
SWODY2
SPC AC 080613

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1213 AM CST Sun Mar 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Monday from the
Arklatex into the lower Mississippi Valley.

...ArkLaTex and Lower MS/TN Valleys...

A low-amplitude mid/upper shortwave trough will move from the
southern Plains to the TN Valley through Monday afternoon/evening.
In the absence of stronger height falls, little surface cyclogenesis
is expected. Nevertheless, deep layer southwesterly flow will
support persistent warm advection regime. Rich boundary-layer
moisture (surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F) will be in
place across the Lower MS Valley beneath steep midlevel lapse rates.
Pockets of stronger heating of the moist warm sector will support
MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg (particularly across southern AR/northern
LA into MS). Supercell wind profiles are noted in forecast soundings
amid 35+ kt effective shear magnitudes owing to strong mid/upper
flow. Forecast hodographs also become elongated/straight above 2-3 km.

Large-scale ascent will remain modest and may limit storm coverage,
but most CAMs guidance suggest at least a few storms will develop
within the warm advection regime. Convection will mainly pose a risk
for large hail (with some potential for hail up to 2 inch diameter)
and localize strong wind gusts. Given moist low-levels and modestly enlarged/curved low-level hodographs, a tornado or two also may be
possible, but is not expected to be the main hazard.

..Leitman.. 03/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 210602
SWODY2
SPC AC 210601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are
expected on Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the Ohio Valley.

...Ohio Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley...

At mid-levels on Sunday, an amplifying trough will move quickly east-southeastward across the north-central U.S, as an associated
jet streak translates eastward into the southern Great Lakes. At the
surface, a cold front will advance southward into the Ohio Valley.
South of the front, moderate instability will develop across a moist
airmass by early afternoon, with surface dewpoints in the lower to
mid 60s F. Warming surface temperatures and increasing low-level
convergence will result in convective initiation along parts of the
front during the mid to late afternoon. Storm coverage is forecast
to gradually increase as several clusters or line segments with a
severe threat move southeastward across the Ohio Valley during the
late afternoon and early evening.

During the afternoon from Cincinnati to Pittsburgh, forecast
soundings gradually increase MLCAPE in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range.
Forecasts just ahead of the front suggest that winds will be veered
to the southwest near the surface, but that strong speed shear will
exist in the lower to mid-levels. 0-6 km shear is forecast to range
from 40 to 50 knots, which should be favorable for severe
thunderstorm development. 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.0 to 7.5
C/km range should support supercells with large hail. The supercell
threat is expected to be greatest early in the event, when cells are
more likely to be discrete. A threat for severe wind gusts is also
expected. The wind-damage threat should be concentrated along short
line segments that form in the late afternoon and early evening. A
marginal tornado threat will also be possible.

Further west-southwest into the lower Ohio Valley and mid
Mississippi Valley, the models are forecasting a stout capping
inversion to the south of the front over much of the warm sector.
Near the front in the early evening, the cap is forecast to weaken.
This combined with increasing low-level convergence near the front
should be enough for isolated convective initiation. A marginal
threat for hail and severe wind gusts would be possible with the
stronger cells that can initiate and persist.

..Broyles.. 03/21/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 250558
SWODY2
SPC AC 250556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late Thursday
afternoon and evening across parts of the Midwest and Ohio River
Valley. Very large hail, a few tornadoes, and severe winds will be possible.

...Synopsis...
Latest GOES water-vapor imagery depicts an upper wave encroaching
upon the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies and southern British
Columbia as it rounds the apex of a stout upper ridge situated over
the West. This feature is expected to migrate eastward over the next
48 hours, reaching the Great Lakes region by late Thursday.
Early-morning surface observations reveal the early stages of lee
cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains with a long fetch of
southerly flow from the TX Gulf Coast into the Plains. While
moisture return is currently fairly weak, a plume of upper 50s to
low 60s dewpoints will spread northeastward into the Midwest/OH
Valley by Thursday afternoon ahead of a southeastward moving cold
front. Strong forcing along the front within a destabilizing air
mass, combined with increasing mid-level flow attendant to the upper
wave, will promote scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across
portions of the Midwest and OH Valley Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...

Thunderstorm development is expected by late afternoon across the
southern Lake Michigan region as the cold front begins to impinge on
a plume of returning moisture. Stout capping at the base of an EML
will likely limit initial storm coverage, and elongated hodographs
(featuring 40-50 knot effective bulk shear values) will promote
organization of discrete/semi-discrete supercells for at least an
hour or two. Given the very favorable convective environment
(characterized by SCP values upwards of 8-12), large to very large
(2-3 inches in diameter) hail appears possible. However, it remains
unclear how long storm modes will remain discrete with latest HRRR,
RRFS, and MPAS solutions all suggesting relatively quick upscale
growth along the front by early evening. These solutions appear
reasonable given strong frontal ascent and deep-layer flow
predominantly along the boundary. This may modulate the
duration/coverage of the significant hail threat, and would favor a
scattered severe wind threat downstream into IN and OH.

Regardless, 200-400 m2/s2 effective SRH immediately ahead of the
front will support some threat for tornadoes, including the
potential for a significant tornado if supercells can be maintained
just ahead of the front. Additionally, the consensus among HREF/REFS
solutions is a northward shift in the primary severe risk corridor
towards northern IL/IN, southern lower MI, and northwest OH. 15%
hail and wind probabilities were adjusted accordingly. More isolated strong/severe storms appear possible with southwestward extent along
the front into central MO, but confidence in storm coverage west of
the MS River is limited due to displacement from the richer moisture
and stronger upper-level ascent.

..Moore.. 03/25/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 300601
SWODY2
SPC AC 300559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong/severe thunderstorms are expected through the day
and into the evening hours Tuesday across parts of the Great
Lakes/Midwest. Damaging gusts and hail are most likely. Isolated
strong storms may also extend southwestward into parts of the
southern Plains with localized hail/wind.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude upper wave is noted in early-morning water-vapor
imagery across the Pacific Northwest, meanwhile, a diffuse lee
cyclone is noted in surface observations across the High Plains.
Over the next 24-48 hours, this cyclone will intensify as it
translates east across the Plains and into the Great Lakes region in
tandem with the upper wave. Thunderstorm coverage will be greatest
ahead of this low and along a trailing cold front with increasingly
sparse convective coverage with southwestward extent into the
Plains. Elsewhere across the country, isolated thunderstorms are
expected across portions of Southeast states within a plume of
returning rich low-level moisture as well as across the Southwest
and northern Great Basin as ascent associated with a weak upper
disturbance overspreads the region.

...Great Lakes...
Isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing
early Tuesday morning within the warm frontal zone of the
approaching cyclone. Based on latest high-res guidance, this
activity should largely exit the upper Great Lakes region by early
afternoon and allow for some degree of air mass recovery ahead of
the approaching cold front. Westerly 40-50 knot shear vectors will
likely support initially semi-discrete storm modes across portions
of the upper MS Valley and Lake Michigan vicinity by early afternoon
with an attendant large hail risk.

With time, upscale growth along the front into one or more linear
segments is expected - especially in close proximity to the surface
low where forcing for ascent will be greatest. Latest HREF/REFS
ensemble guidance continues to depict the strongest convective
signal across lower MI and downstream into the Lake Erie region
where low-level moistening should support MLCAPE values upwards of
1500 J/kg ahead of the low. Additionally, low-level warm advection
preceding the surface low will support 0-1 km SRH values on the
order of 250 m2/s2 across the lower Great Lakes region. While it
remains unclear whether or not discrete storms can develop within
the diffuse warm frontal zone ahead of any convective
lines/clusters, a tornado threat may materialize as convection moves
into the favorably sheared environment during the evening hours.

...Southern Plains...
Modest deepening of a lee trough/low across the southern High Plains
will support some tightening of a dryline across western OK into
adjacent portions of northwest TX as a cold front stalls across
northwest OK. Ample heating/mixing and weak low-level convergence
may sufficiently erode inhibition and provide adequate ascent along
the dryline and/or cold front to support at least a few isolated
thunderstorms. A combination of marginal deep-layer wind shear
(25-30 knots of effective bulk shear) and dry low-level conditions
may support an isolated hail and severe wind risk with the more
robust convection.

..Moore.. 03/30/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 310603
SWODY2
SPC AC 310601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHWEST
TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...EASTERN KANSAS...AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are likely across the southern and central
Plains on Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are the primary concerns. Isolated
strong/severe storms are also possible over parts of the upper Ohio
Valley into the Mid-Atlantic.

...Synopsis...
By 12 UTC Wednesday, a stalled frontal boundary will likely be
draped from the southern/central Plains eastward along the OH Valley
and into the Mid-Atlantic. Aloft, a progressive upper wave will
traverse the Southwest during the day, eventually ejecting into the
southern Plains around or after 00 UTC. The approach of the upper
wave will support lee cyclogenesis across southeast CO into western
KS, which will foster northward advection of low 60s dewpoints
(already noted in early-morning surface observations along the TX
coast) into OK and eastern KS by late afternoon. The intensification
of the low will also promote a northward advancement of the boundary
as a warm front into northern MO and possibly southern IA by late
evening, as well as the sharpening of a dryline across western OK
into northwest and western TX through the day. Strong to severe
thunderstorm potential will mainly be focused along/ahead of the
dryline and in proximity to the warm front as the upper wave begins
to eject during the early evening hours.

...Southern Kansas into Oklahoma and northwest Texas...

Initiation along the dryline appears likely during the 21-00 UTC
period across western OK into northwest TX as a combination of
diurnal heating and increasing synoptic ascent act to erode
inhibition. Elongated hodographs featuring effective bulk shear
values between 35-45 knots will support initially discrete
supercells capable of large/very large hail and tornadoes (though
uncertainty persists regarding low-level SRH through early evening).
Upscale growth is anticipated at some point during the evening
hours, though there is some uncertainty on when this transition will
occur and the primary threat becomes severe wind. Regardless, an
increase in the nocturnal jet will enlarge low-level hodographs and
maintain the tornado potential into the late evening hours.

...Eastern Kansas and western Missouri...

Latest guidance shows fairly strong consistency in the development
of semi-discrete convection along the lifting warm front across
eastern KS into western MO during the late afternoon/evening hours -
likely owing to weaker capping and focused low/mid-level warm
advection that is noted in most forecast soundings. Veering winds
within the warm frontal zone will support effective SRH values on
the order of 200-300 m2/s2, and surface-based LCLs near or below 1
km will likely support a tornado threat in addition to large/very
large hail. While the potential for robust supercells is noted, the
weak capping and focused ascent may promote thunderstorm clustering
and upscale growth (as hinted by 00z HRRR/RRFS solutions) that could
limit the longevity of these threats; however, the strong signal in
guidance for deep convection within a favorable environment warrants
an expansion of probabilities.

...Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic...

Diurnal heating along and focused low-level ascent along the stalled
boundary will likely support isolated to widely scattered convection
by mid-afternoon. While mid-level flow will be somewhat modest
compared to locations further west, sufficient hodograph elongation
should promote at least a few more organized storms capable of
posing a large hail threat. Deep-layer flow along the boundary may
promote clustering during peak heating with an attendant threat for damaging/severe winds.

..Moore.. 03/31/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 010600
SWODY2
SPC AC 010559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Apr 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the Midwest and
Great Lakes regions Thursday afternoon and evening/night. Damaging
winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes will all be possible.

...Synopsis...
A surface cyclone is forecast to deepen as it lifts northeastward
from the southern/central Plains into the upper MS Valley. This will
help advect a plume of seasonally rich moisture (upper 50s to low
60s dewpoints) northward into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions
through the day and into the overnight hours. Residual convection
emanating out of the mid-MS Valley during the morning hours is
forecast to re-intensify by mid to late afternoon. Concurrently, a
second round of thunderstorms is anticipated along the synoptic cold
front along the MS Valley by late afternoon. Both rounds of
thunderstorms will pose a risk of severe winds, tornadoes, and
sporadic large hail as the regional wind field intensifies through the day.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...

Latest guidance continues to depict broken convective bands
(residual from overnight convection over the Plains) moving out of
central and northern MO during the late morning/early afternoon
hours. As the synoptic cyclone lift north, moisture advection will
likely keep pace with the convection given 20-25 mph surface winds
and 45-55 knot flow within the lowest kilometer. Diluted diurnal
heating should support adequate (albeit very modest) destabilization
for a re-intensification of convection by the mid-afternoon hours.
Despite very limited buoyancy (MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg), the
combination of very strong low-level flow and 250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km
SRH will support organized lines with an attendant threat for severe
winds and tornadoes. The northern and eastern extent of the
wind/tornado threat remains somewhat nebulous and will be
conditional on the quality of downstream destabilization.

...Mid/Upper MS River Valley...

Air mass recover appears likely in the wake of early-morning
convection across northern MO into IA/western IL with most forecast
guidance depicting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 to perhaps 1500
J/kg MLCAPE. Forcing along the cold front to the south of the
surface low will likely support semi-discrete convection that should
propagate east/northeast into northern IL by late afternoon and
evening. A combination of regionally higher buoyancy and strong
low-level flow (similar 0-1 km SRH values between 250-300 m2/s2 are
expected) will support a threat for semi-discrete cells capable of
large hail, severe gusts, and a few tornadoes (including the
potential for significant tornadoes).

...Mid-South...

A moist and weakly capped environment across the Mid-South/lower OH
Valley will support convection through peak heating. However,
increasing displacement from stronger synoptic ascent and a lack of
more focused mesoscale ascent will likely result in more isolated
thunderstorm coverage. Nonetheless, deep-layer wind shear will
support organized convection, including the potential for a
supercell or two through early evening.

..Moore.. 04/01/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 100523
SWODY2
SPC AC 100521

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms producing hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible across portions of the central and southern Plains on Saturday.

...Southern/Central Plains...

Upper ridging will be in place over the central U.S. early Saturday.
A weak upper shortwave trough over the Great Basin will migrate
northeast through the period, along with several other lead
shortwave impulses ahead of a larger-scale western trough/upper low
near the Pacific coast. This will result in deamplification of the
upper ridge. Modest deep-layer southwesterly flow around 20-40 kt
will overspread much of the Plains. At the surface, low pressure
will deepen over Montana and eventually develop east across the
northern Plains late in the period, while lee troughing extends
southward across the High Plains. Increasing south/southeasterly
low-level flow will transport 50s and low 60s F dewpoints northward
toward the Mid-MO Valley, and westward toward western KS/OK/TX.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of the surface
trough across eastern NM/western TX during the afternoon as modest
large-scale ascent overspreads the region. Cloud cover will limit
daytime heating, but steepening lapse rates and modestly increasing boundary-layer moisture will support MLCAPE to around 1000-1500
J/kg. Vertical shear will be weak but sufficient for at least
transient organized cells capable of producing large hail. As a
low-level jet increases during the evening, some consolidation of
updrafts could occur and linear segments/small bows could produce
locally strong wind gusts.

Further north, a more conditional risk is expected across the
central Plains. A warm front will lift northward across KS/NE during
the afternoon and into early evening. Forecast soundings indicate
capping will likely preclude much convective development within the
warm sector. However, if any cells are able to develop and become
sustained near the warm front, a severe risk will be possible. This
scenario is uncertain, and will maintain Level 1 of 5/Marginal risk. Additionally cells are possible during the evening across parts of
eastern CO/western KS/western NE near the surface trough. Locally
strong gusts and hail will be possible with these storms.

...Central CA...

Low-topped thunderstorms are possible in the north-central Valley
vicinity during the afternoon/evening as cooling aloft and
increasing ascent overspread the region ahead of an upper low over
the eastern Pacific. Instability is expected to remain weak (less
than 400 J/kg MLCAPE), but small hail and gusty winds may briefly
occur with stronger cells. As the upper low and a surface cold front
approach the central coast overnight, a line of low-topped
convection could bring gusty winds as well. Severe storms are not
expected at this time.

...Great Basin vicinity...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during
the afternoon and evening as a compact upper shortwave trough moves
over the region. Cool temperatures aloft will support steep midlevel
lapse rates and MLCAPE generally less than 500 J/kg. However, a well
mixed boundary layer with inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic
profiles and around 30 kt southwesterly flow through 600 mb could
support locally gusty winds. Overall, severe potential appears
limited.

..Leitman.. 04/10/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 110538
SWODY2
SPC AC 110537

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1237 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from the southern and
central Plains into the Upper Midwest on Sunday.

...Synopsis...

An upper trough will slowly pivot east over the western U.S. on
Sunday while upper riding envelopes the East. A couple of shortwave
impulses will migrate northeast from the Plains to the Upper
Midwest/MS Valley vicinity. Persistent midlevel southwesterly flow
across the central portions will maintain lee troughing over the
Plains. Meanwhile, southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F
dewpoints northward from TX to WI ahead of a surface trough/dryline
oriented across eastern NE into central KS, arcing south/southwest
into northwest OK and western TX. A surface low is forecast to move
across the Upper Midwest, where a boundary will be draped across
southern MN into WI.

...Central/Southern Plains...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing Sunday
morning across OK/TX, with more isolated activity possible northward
into the Mid-MO Valley. This convection will have implications on
airmass recovery and thunderstorm development along the dryline
during the afternoon/evening. Some isolated wind/hail risk could
accompany this early activity as clusters and/or line segments move
across OK/TX during the morning.

In the wake of this morning activity, persistent southwesterly
mid/upper flow will maintain a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates
and mixing near the dryline should erode cloud cover over portions
of KS/OK/western TX. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous, with a
lack of height falls precluding large-scale support for thunderstorm development. Nevertheless, modest confluence along the dryline is
forecast. Mid 60s F dewpoints beneath steep lapse rates will support
up to 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Furthermore, supercell wind profiles are
apparent in forecast soundings. This environment will conditionally
support supercells along the dryline by late afternoon into the
evening. However, given a lack of forcing, storm coverage is
uncertain. If storms can develop along the dryline, at least a
narrow corridor of large to very large hail potential will exist in
addition to damaging winds and a tornado or two.

Some guidance suggests morning convection could intensify or
redevelop across portions of north/central TX toward the ArkLaTex,
but this scenario remains very uncertain.

...South Texas/Rio Grande vicinity...

A conditional severe risk is apparent during the evening/nighttime
hours. A moderately unstable airmass will be in place, though
deep-layer flow will be somewhat weaker compared to further north. Nevertheless, some guidance suggests supercells will develop across
Mexico and could approach/cross the Rio Grande during the evening.
If this occurs, an initial risk for large hail and damaging gusts
will exist. With time, some potential for clustering could occur and
bring a continued risk for strong winds across portions of south-central/southern TX during the nighttime hours.

...Upper Midwest...

Thunderstorm development during peak heating is uncertain. If the
upper shortwave trough moves across the area too early, convective
development may be limited in the wake of that feature.
Nevertheless, a corridor of modest destabilization is expected ahead
of the surface low as cool temperatures aloft support steepened
midlevel lapse rates amid a moistening boundary layer. If storms
develop, isolated severe hail and wind are possible with stronger storms.

..Leitman.. 04/11/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 120548
SWODY2
SPC AC 120547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across the Upper Mississippi
Valley and Great Lakes region, and across portions of the southern
Plains on Monday.

...Synopsis...

The persistent/stagnant southwesterly flow regime will continue from
the southern Plains to the Upper Midwest on Monday. Low-amplitude
upper ridging will move across the Upper Midwest during the day
ahead of a shortwave trough moving across the northern Plains. The
shortwave will shift east across the Great Lakes overnight.
Meanwhile, an upper trough from the northern Rockies to offshore the
southern CA coast will pivot eastward toward the Four Corners
region. At the surface, low pressure near the SD/NE border will
develop east along the MN/IA border to central WI. Meanwhile, lee
troughing will persist across the Plains. A dryline will extend
southwest from the Mid-MO Valley into western OK/TX, while a warm
front extends from southern MN into southern/central WI. These
boundaries will become a focus for severe thunderstorm development
during the afternoon/evening.

...Upper Midwest...

Strengthening southerly low-level flow will transport low to mid 60s
F dewpoints northward toward southern MN and southern/central WI.
Meanwhile, a plume of steep midlevel lapse rates will overspread the
region. Capping will likely suppress thunderstorm activity for much
of the day as the shortwave upper ridge moves across the region. By
late afternoon/early evening, height falls are forecast to
overspread the area and thunderstorms are expected to develop as a strengthening low-level jet overspreads the warm front ahead of an eastward-progressing surface low. Initial thunderstorm activity may
be, or quickly become, elevated to the cool side of the warm front
given northeast storm motion. Nevertheless, supercell wind profiles,
cool temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft, and moderate to strong
instability will support large hail potential.

If surface-based warm sector storms can develop, supercells capable
of all hazards will be possible. While this evolution is uncertain,
it appears most probable from southeast MN toward
south/south-central WI. Convection will spread eastward with time
into MI, continuing to pose a risk for hail overnight.

...Southern Plains...

A conditional supercell environment will exist along/east of the
surface dryline from portions of western/central OK toward the TX
Big Bend. Given a lack of height falls across the region, capping
will likely suppress convection. However, strong heating along the
dryline will promote mixing. Confluence low-level flow along the
dryline coupled with strong instability and mixing may be sufficient
for a couple of storms during the late afternoon/evening as a modest
low-level jet develops. While conditional, if a storm can develop,
supercell wind profiles suggest large hail, strong gusts and perhaps
a tornado will be possible.

..Leitman.. 04/12/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 140557
SWODY2
SPC AC 140555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of
the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes on Wednesday afternoon
and evening.

...Synopsis...

A shortwave upper trough will eject from the central Plains to the
Great Lakes on Wednesday. A swath of enhanced southwesterly
deep-layer flow will extend from the southern/central Plains to the
Great Lakes/Midwest ahead of this feature. The southern extent of
the upper trough will move more slowly east, from the southern
Rockies to the southern High Plains. At the surface, low pressure is
forecast to be in the vicinity of the Mid-MO Valley/southeast NE
Wednesday morning, and will shift east/northeast along a warm front
across IA/southern WI/northern IL through evening. A trailing cold
front will move across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity
during the nighttime hours as the surface low continue to progress
northeast into Ontario. Further south, a dryline will extend
south/southwest across eastern KS into western OK and west-central
TX. A seasonally moist and unstable airmass will be in place ahead
of these surface features, focusing severe thunderstorm potential
during the afternoon and evening. A warm moist and unstable airmass
will extend eastward across portions of the upper Ohio Valley/Northeast.

...MO Valley to Lake Michigan vicinity...

Convection is likely to be ongoing across parts of the region
Wednesday morning. As a result, uncertainty exists regarding airmass
recovery and evolution of severe potential Wednesday
afternoon/evening. Persistent southwesterly flow and warm advection
ahead of the surface low will maintain a moist airmass. Convection
should redevelop by late afternoon/evening near the surface low and
along a surface boundary extending from eastern IA to near the IL/WI
border. Where heating can occur in the wake of early day convection,
MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg should develop. Supercell wind profiles
are evident in forecast soundings, especially near the surface low
where SRH will be enhanced. Initial cells may pose a risk for hail.
Tornado potential is a bit more uncertain given aforementioned
concerns about boundary-layer impacts from early day convection.
However, at least low potential should exist near the surface low
and warm front/outflow. A corridor of higher tornado probabilities
may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence in mesoscale
details and boundary layer recovery increases. During the evening,
upscale growth into an eastward-advancing line is expected as a
surface cold front begins to move east across the region, and
damaging winds will be possible.

...Southern Plains...

Isolated supercells are forecast to develop along the dryline in OK
into eastern KS/ and eventually portions of MO. Mid to upper 60s F
dewpoints beneath steep midlevel lapse rates (7.5-8 C/km) will
support 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon. Some weak capping is
noted around 850 mb, which may limit storm coverage in the absence
of stronger large-scale ascent. Nevertheless, elongated/straight
hodographs above 2-3 km within a favorable thermodynamic environment
suggests large to very large hail will be possible with storms that
develop. A couple of tornadoes also will be possible given modestly
enlarged and favorably curved low-level hodographs and around 150
m2/s2 SRH within a narrow corridor near the dryline.

...Upper Ohio Valley toward the Northeast...

Fast deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will overspread a moistening
low-level boundary layer. Strong heating will support steepening
low-level lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support
midlevel lapse rates near 7 C/km. This will foster moderate
destabilization during the afternoon, promoting isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development. Damaging wind gusts and isolated
hail will be possible with this activity into the evening.

..Leitman.. 04/14/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 141740
SWODY2
SPC AC 141738

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHERN TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...AND FROM NORTHERN OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for large hail, strong wind
gusts, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible across portions of
the southern Plains toward the Great Lakes Wednesday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt upper trough will be located over the central Plains
on Wednesday and will move across the MS Valley and toward the Great
Lakes late. Moderate to strong mid to high level southwesterlies
will exist over much of the central and southern Plains, along with
cool temperatures aloft. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will hold over
the Southeast, with moderate winds aloft along the periphery of the
upper ridge extending from the OH Valley into the Northeast.

At the surface, low pressure will develop into IA as the upper wave
moves out of NE and KS. A front/dryline will extend south across
eastern KS, western OK and west central TX during the day.
Meanwhile, an elongated stationary front will extend from IA into
southern WI/MI and into the lower Great Lakes, with more of a warm
front into NY and southern New England. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints
will remain roughly from TX into IA, with lower 60s F dewpoints
along the length of the stationary front.

...TX/OK/KS/IA/MO/IL...

A focused area of severe storm potential will develop south of the
developing low and along the dryline during the afternoon. Although
the wave will be moving away from OK/TX, the dryline should stall
with strong instability developing and MLCAPE over 3000 J/kg.
Minimal lift will be required near the dryline to initiate afternoon
storms, possibly before 21Z. Cells should develop from northwest TX
across OK and into southeast KS, and gain strength as 50-60 kt
effective shear acts upon them. Both supercells and bowing
structures will be possible, with areas of very large hail and
damaging winds expected. A few tornadoes may occur given the strong
instability and midlevel lapse rates, despite marginal low-level
wind fields.

Farther north, another zone of supercell potential is evident from
northern MO into IA and western IL late in the day ahead of the
shortwave trough. Here, deep-layer shear vector orientation will be
quite favorable for discrete cells, with hail likely. Any early day
storms may affect warm sector quality, but conditionally, a tornado
will be possible.

...From WI/IL eastward into PA...

Areas of heating and warm advection toward the frontal zone will
result in widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms erupting over IL,
IN, southern WI, northern OH and into western PA by 21Z. Favorable
deep-layer shear averaging near 40 kt and at least 1500 J/kg MUCAPE
along this zone will favor storms producing hail and locally
damaging gusts. Storm modes may be mixed.

..Jewell.. 04/14/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 150518
SWODY2
SPC AC 150516

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NEW YORK AND SOUTHERN VERMONT...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Thursday
extending from southeast Missouri across the Ohio Valley and into
parts of New York.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough will spread east across the Midwest on
Thursday, becoming oriented from the Lower Great Lakes to the
central/southern Appalachians by Friday morning. At the surface, a
front will sag south/southeast across the Great Lakes. Modest
southwesterly low-level flow will maintain upper 50s to low 60s F
dewpoints from the Mid-South into New York/southern New England.
This should be sufficient for weak to moderate destabilization given
modestly steep midlevel lapse rates.

... New York vicinity...

Modest height falls are forecast across the region during the
afternoon and evening within a low-level warm advection regime.
Moderate to strong deep-layer mid/upper flow will overspread the
moistening boundary layer, supporting effective shear magnitudes of
30+ kt. Heating into the mid/upper 70s will lead to steepening
low-level lapse rates, while cool temperatures aloft (near -12 C at
500 mb) will support 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. An accompanying
risk of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts is expected.

...Mid-South and Ohio Valley...

Convection posing a risk for marginal hail may be going across parts
of the MO Bootheel vicinity Thursday morning. Persistent warm
advection should allow for airmass recovery by afternoon across this
area and thunderstorms are forecast to redevelop during the
afternoon with a continued risk for isolated hail and strong wind
gusts. Additional isolated convection also develop into the Ohio
Valley during the afternoon, though the thermodynamic environment
may be more marginal due to possible morning showers and cloud cover
lingering, limiting destabilization. However, if storms are able to
develop, locally strong gusts and marginal hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 04/15/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 170526
SWODY2
SPC AC 170525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms capable of damaging winds
and hail will be possible on Saturday across the upper Ohio Valley.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will move from the Upper Midwest to the Great
Lakes on Friday. A surface cold front will move from the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley to the Appalachians. In its wake, high pressure
will build into the Intermountain West and Plains.

Remnant showers/storms will likely be ongoing at the beginning of
the period ahead of the cold front. The extensive cloudcover and
potential outflow from Day 1 storms has resulted in considerable
uncertainty for the Saturday forecast. Most 00Z guidance shows
extensive outflow moving across Ohio during the morning. If this
occurs, additional storm development is not anticipated until
farther east across western Pennsylvania and southwest New York. If
these morning storms/outflow are less progressive, some moisture
advection ahead of the cold front is expected to bring somewhat
greater instability. This could result in some stronger storms, and
potentially sufficient instability for some transient supercell structures.

Some 00Z CAM guidance (NAM/NSSL WRF) depicts low to mid 60s
dewpoints across eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania on Saturday
afternoon. This seems to be the outlier, but if this does occur, a
more substantial severe weather threat, and a greater tornado threat
would exist across western Pennsylvania into southwest New York.
However, only weak instability seems most likely within this zone of
strong shear and therefore, expect damaging wind gusts as the
primary hazard.

..Bentley.. 04/17/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 220601
SWODY2
SPC AC 220600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will be possible from southern Kansas into
southern Minnesota on Thursday. Large hail to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes are possible.

... Synopsis ...

A shortwave trough will move northeast along the eastern periphery
of a western US longwave trough. This shortwave will help maintain a
surface cyclone in southern Canada, while a secondary surface low
may develop across southern Minnesota late in the period. A
secondary shortwave will approach the southern Plains late in the
forecast period.

As the shortwave trough lifts northeast, a cold front will
accelerate east across the central and northern Plains. Ahead of the
surface front southerly winds will support mid 50F dewpoints as far
north as northern Minnesota and pockets of 60F dewpoints perhaps as
far north as southern-to-central Minnesota.

... Central and Northern Plains ...

Diurnal heating of the moist airmass ahead of the advancing surface
front will yield an increasingly unstable atmosphere during the
afternoon with the 20260422/00Z HREF showing ensemble mean SBCAPE
values approaching 2000 J/kg as far north as the greater Omaha, NE,
vicinity by 20Z. Interrogation of forecast soundings ahead of the
frontal boundary shows a strong cap stretching from Oklahoma
northward into Nebraska and Iowa. This cap does lift during the day
in response to increasing large-scale ascent from the approaching
trough, but thunderstorm initiation will likely require convergence
along the surface front.

This should occur by mid-afternoon anywhere from northeast Kansas
into southern Minnesota. Initially, deep-layer shear is not
particularly strong across the warm sector, but would still support
a combination of multi-cells and supercells. Given the degree of
instability and steep midlevel lapse rates, large-to-very-large hail
would be possible with any of these initial storms. A tornado or two
would also be possible given some low-level curvature in the
forecast hodographs associated with at least a modest low-level jet.

As the cold front continues to move east into the moist and unstable
airmass, additional thunderstorms should develop along the front,
eventually growing upscale into one or more linear systems and a
transition to a damaging wind threat. Vertical shear should improve
during the late afternoon and evening as the mid-to-upper-level
winds respond to the approach trough, yielding a continued tornado
threat with any persistent discrete cell.

... Oklahoma and Northwest Texas ...

A very unstable airmass will develop across the region to the east
of a dryline across western Oklahoma during the afternoon. Forecast
soundings show varying degrees of a cap across Oklahoma and
Northwest Texas. With the strongest large-scale ascent remaining
largely to the north of the area, forcing for ascent will likely
require strong dryline circulations. Given afternoon temperatures in
the 90Fs to the west of the dryline, there is at least some
potential for dryline circulations to break the cap and initiate at
least a couple of storms. Vertical shear profiles will support
supercells capable of very large hail. A highly conditional tornado
threat could develop with any discrete storm that is able to move
off the dryline and into the increasingly moist and unstable
environment to the east.

..Marsh.. 04/22/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 270533
SWODY2
SPC AC 270531

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Valid 281200Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH LOWER MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development is probable
across parts of the southeastern Great Plains through the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday afternoon and evening.
The evolution of a long-lived organized cluster accompanied by
potentially damaging wind gusts appears possible.

...Discussion...
Latest model output still indicates that the center of a fairly
broad surface cyclone may undergo further deepening while migrating
northeast of the upper Great Lakes region during this period,
particularly as it reaches the southeastern Hudson Bay vicinity,
near the southeastern periphery of an evolving mid-level low.
Surrounding this low, it appears that larger-scale mid-level
troughing, encompassing much of interior North America to the east
of the northern Rockies, may make slow further progress toward the
northern/mid Atlantic Seaboard, while perhaps undergoing some
amplification along an axis southward through the upper and middle
Mississippi Valley by late Tuesday night. This may support modest
surface wave development along a stalling cold front across the
southeastern Great Plains through lower Ohio Valley, and contribute
to suppression of mid-level ridging across northern portions of the
eastern Gulf Coast states.

Otherwise, mid-level ridging to the north of a prominent subtropical
high, still centered over southern Mexico, is likely to build across
the southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains, downstream of a low
over the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes of the eastern
Pacific. Only a slow eastward progression of this low is forecast,
to the south of mid/upper ridging building northeastward into
British Columbia and the Pacific Northwest.

...Southeastern Great Plains into Tennessee Valley...

There is continuing spread within the latest model output, but a
consensus of guidance suggests that pre-cold frontal outflow,
generated by convection today through tonight, will remain a notable
feature into and through this period. It appears that the leading
edge of this air mass may curve from parts of the southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley toward the Ark-La-Tex at 12Z Tuesday.
The extent to which this advances southward through the eastern Gulf
Coast states on its eastern flank, while retreating northeastward
through the lower Mississippi Valley on its western flank, remains
unclear. However, it seems probable that it will become a focus for intensifying thunderstorm development by late Tuesday afternoon in
response to boundary-layer destabilization along and to its south,
and forcing for ascent aided by low-level warm advection.

At the same time, a corridor of stronger pre-frontal surface heating
across parts of northeastern Texas through north central Arkansas
may become the focus for stronger convective development, in the
presence of larger CAPE supported by steeper mid-level lapse rates.
More strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air may continue to
inhibit more than isolated thunderstorm initiation farther to
southwest, along the dryline across central Texas into areas
near/south of Del Rio TX.

Strengthening shear with the approach of digging mid-level troughing
on the southern fringe of the westerlies is likely provide support
for a few supercells across the southeastern Great Plains, and
upscale growing and organizing clusters propagating into the lower
Mississippi Valley. There appears a consensus within the model
output that the intersection of this activity with the preceding
outflow boundary may ultimately provide the focus for the most
prominent evolving cluster, which may pose a risk for widespread
strong to severe gusts across parts of Arkansas through the lower
Mississippi Valley by late Tuesday evening.

Too many uncertainties exist to upgrade the categorical severe
threat at this time, but this remains possible in later outlooks for
this period.

..Kerr.. 04/27/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 010501
SWODY2
SPC AC 010500

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1200 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are possible across southern Georgia into northern/central Florida Saturday morning into early evening.

...FL vicinity...

An upper trough over the MS Valley vicinity will pivot east across
the Southeast on Saturday. Strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow
associated with this system will overspread the region. Deep-layer
flow will weaken with southward extent across the FL Peninsula
during the afternoon, but 850-500 mb southwesterly flow is forecast
to remain robust across southern GA into northern/central FL for
much of the day. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented
across the NC/SC coastal plain, extending southwestward to near the
FL/GA line and offshore across the north-central Gulf. Ahead of the
front, a seasonally moist airmass will be in place.

Convection will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the cold front
Saturday morning. Current CAMs guidance varies with regard to storm
mode and intensity early in the period, with the 00z HRRR being a
notable outlier showing a small but well organized bowing MCS across
the eastern FL Panhandle and southwest GA. Most of the rest of the
CAMs guidance trends toward thunderstorm clusters. The low-level jet
will be favorable for organized convection, and an organized linear
system is possible, but uncertain. Downstream from early-period
convection, upper 60s to near 70 F dewpoints will aid in modest destabilization. Where stronger heating can occur MLCAPE may
increase to around 1000-1500 J/kg. Deep-layer flow will remain
parallel to the surface boundary, so some potential for undercutting
convection by the front is possible. Nevertheless, given the
strength of deep layer flow and strong vertical shear amid
sufficient instability, severe storms posing a risk for damaging
wind gusts is possible. If any more discrete convection can develop,
isolated hail is also possible. The tornado risk is less certain
given a weakening low-level jet with time, questions regarding storm
mode, and overall uncertainty in low-level destabilization.

..Leitman.. 05/01/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 040535
SWODY2
SPC AC 040533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Mon May 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of eastern Oklahoma and
northeast Texas into the Mid-South. Additional strong storms are
possible across parts of the Northeast.

...Synopsis...

Upper troughing centered on the north-central U.S. will phase with
an upper shortwave trough over the Southwest on Tuesday. As this
occurs, strong deep-layer west/southwesterly flow will develop
across the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley and into the
Northeast. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to extend from
southern Lower MI to a surface low over central OK. A dryline will
extend southwestward from the central OK low into central/southwest
TX. The cold front is expected to develop east/southeast through the
period, becoming oriented from the Northeast to southern AR and
northern TX by Wednesday morning. Two areas of severe potential are
expected to be focused ahead of the surface cold front, one across
parts of the southern Plains to the Mid-South and the second across
the Northeast.

...Southern Plains to the Mid-South...

Southerly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints northward to
the east of the surface dryline and as far north as the MO Bootheel
vicinity. Some morning convection or cloud cover is expected across
parts of southern MO toward the MO/OH River confluence. Persistent
warm advection may result in scattered cloudiness across much of the
ArkLaTex and Ozarks vicinity as well. Nevertheless, modest cooling
aloft by late afternoon will aid in steepening midlevel lapse rates
atop the moist boundary layer, supporting MLCAPE in the 1000-2000
J/kg range. Instability will decrease with northeast extent into the
Mid-South. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected by late
afternoon ahead of the surface cold front. Convection may tend to
become linear more quickly across the Mid-South where shear vectors
are parallel to the surface boundary. Further south across parts of
AR into northeast TX closer to the surface triple point, low-level
flow may be less veered and shear vectors supporting initially
discrete cells. Any convection that can remain
semi-discrete/cellular will pose a risk for large hail, strong wind
gusts, and a tornado or two. With time, convection will evolve into
linear segments as a low-level jet increases and the front begins to
develop southeastward.

The risk is more conditional along the dryline with southwestward
extent across TX. Forcing for ascent will be weaker across this area
and the main initiation mechanism will be mixing/dryline
circulations. If storms can develop, hail and strong gusts will be possible.

...Northeast...

A shortwave upper trough over the Great Lakes will develop
east/northeast across Ontario and Quebec through the evening. Strong
deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Northeast as this
occurs. Boundary layer moisture will be modest, with dewpoints
generally in the 40s to low 50s. However, cold temperatures aloft
will foster steep midlevel lapse rates, supporting modest
destabilization during the afternoon/evening (generally less than
1000 J/kg MLCAPE). Increasing large-scale ascent and the approach of
the surface boundary will result in isolated to scattered
thunderstorm development. Strong gusts will be the main risk with
storms given the strength of deep-layer flow and a well mixed
boundary layer. However, isolated hail also will be possible given
35+ kt effective shear and 500 mb temperatures near -18 C.

..Leitman.. 05/04/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 050509
SWODY2
SPC AC 050507

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1207 AM CDT Tue May 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TX
TO THE LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon and evening across portions of Texas into the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. Damaging
winds, large hail, and a couple of tornadoes will be possible.

...Synopsis...

A positive-tilt large-scale upper trough will extend from the Upper
Great Lakes to the Southwest early Wednesday. The southern extent of
the trough will develop east toward the southern High Plains to
northwest Mexico by Thursday morning. Strong mid/upper southwesterly
flow ahead of the trough will overspread much of the southern and
eastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will extend from the upper
Ohio Valley to central TX during the morning. The front is expected
to develop south/southeast through the period, becoming oriented
from the southern Mid-Atlantic to South TX by Thursday morning.
Ahead of the front, rich Gulf moisture will be in place across TX
into the Lower MS and TN Valleys, decreasing with northeast extent
into parts of the southern Appalachians.

...Northern TN Valley and southern Appalachians...

Forecast guidance varies, but some showers/thunderstorms may be
ongoing Wednesday morning across parts of AR into northern parts of
the TN Valley within a warm advection regime on the nose a gradually
weakening low-level jet. This activity will likely play some role in destabilization later in the day across parts of the TN Valley into
the southern Appalachians vicinity. Nevertheless, strong deep-layer
shear and a moist boundary layer will be sufficient for at least
some severe risk, including damaging wind gusts and perhaps hail.
Some tornado risk could also materialize given favorable low-level
shear and 0-1 km SRH increasing to greater than 250 m2/s2 during the afternoon/evening. However, this is less certain given
aforementioned instability issues and later storm timing into the
southern Appalachians.

...TX to MS/AL...

Further south from northeast TX into MS/AL, strong destabilization
is forecast where deep boundary layer moisture and stronger daytime
heating occurs. MLCAPE in the 2000-3000 J/kg range appear possible
in particular across northern LA into MS. Midlevel southwesterly
flow is expected to increase by late afternoon into the evening as
early capping will be overcome as the surface front begins to
develop south/southeast. Convection along the cold front may quickly
transition to linear/bowing segments given deep shear parallel to
the surface boundary. However, low-level flow in latest model
guidance does not appear to be overly veered, especially near
northern LA into MS. Forecast hodographs indicate enlarged,
favorably curved hodographs across this area. If open warm sector
supercells develop, a risk for tornadoes (perhaps a couple strong
tornadoes) will be possible. Furthermore, steepening midlevel lapse
rates are evident in forecast soundings, along with
elongated/straight hodographs and 45+ kt effective shear magnitudes.
This indicates any semi-discrete supercells could pose a risk for
large to very large hail. With time during the evening/nighttime
hours, convection should generally congeal into a line or bowing MCS
and spread eastward across the TN Valley toward the southern
Appalachians, posing a risk for damaging gusts. Higher tornado and
hail probabilities were considered across parts of the Lower MS
Valley, however, given uncertainty in storm mode and coverage of
discrete supercells, will hold at level 2 (Slight) risk for now.

Across portions of central TX overnight, some guidance suggests
convection may develop within low-level warm advection as the
western extent of the surface cold front dives southward across the
Edward Plateau vicinity. If storms develop, they would likely be
elevated. Nevertheless, a hail risk could materialize within the
conditional scenario late in the forecast period.

..Leitman.. 05/05/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 080603
SWODY2
SPC AC 080601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Fri May 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and a few damaging wind gusts are
expected to develop across parts of the southern Plains Saturday
afternoon and evening. A marginal severe threat is forecast along
parts of the Gulf Coast.

...Southern Plains...

At mid-levels, cyclonically-oriented northwest flow will be in place
over the central U.S. on Saturday. Within the flow, a subtle
shortwave trough is forecast to move into the southern Plains by
early Saturday evening. Ahead of the approaching trough, low-level
moisture advection is forecast ahead of a cold front moving through
the central Plains. A dryline should be located near a triple point
and surface low extending southward into northwest Texas. By late
afternoon, surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F across most of
Oklahoma and north Texas with moderate instability in place.
Low-level convergence will likely become maximized near the triple
point in southwest Kansas and far northwestern Oklahoma, which
should enable convective initiation. Multiple storms are expected to
develop and move south-southeastward across western Oklahoma and
northwest Texas.

The most favorable environment for severe storms is forecast over
southwest Oklahoma during the late afternoon and early evening. RAP
forecasts soundings at 00Z east of the dryline near Altus have 0-6
km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates
around 7.5 C/km. This suggests that supercell development with large
hail will be possible. At the surface, temperature-dewpoint spreads
are forecast to be around 25 degrees F. This will result in
high-based storms capable of isolated severe wind gusts. The severe
threat could persist into the early to mid evening, as convection
moves south-southeastward into northwest Texas.

...Gulf Coast Region...

West-southwest flow at mid-levels is expected on Saturday along the
Gulf Coast. A shortwave trough is forecast to move through south
Texas Saturday afternoon and into the Gulf Saturday evening. Another
shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the Southeast. Warm-advection related storms are forecast to move southeastward
from southern Mississippi and southern Georgia into northern Florida
during the day. These storms could be associated with a marginal
wind-damage threat. Further west across the central and western Gulf
Coast, onshore flow should result in convection along coastal
convergence boundaries during the afternoon. Moderate instability
and sufficient deep-layer shear is forecast for isolated severe wind
gusts and hail.

..Broyles.. 05/08/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 130600
SWODY2
SPC AC 130559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
Thursday across parts of central and eastern Kansas, with more
isolated severe storms possible over parts of the lower Missouri
Valley, northern Ozarks and southern High Plains.

...Central Plains/Lower Missouri Valley/Northern Ozarks...

A mid-level shortwave ridge will move into the upper Mississippi
Valley and Ozarks on Thursday, as a subtle shortwave trough moves
into the Great Plains. Ahead of the trough, low-level moisture
advection will increase surface dewpoints into the 60s F over much
of the eastern half of Kansas. During the day, the airmass will
become moderately unstable as surface temperatures warm. In the
afternoon, low-level convergence will increase along a dryline in
southern and central Kansas supporting scattered thunderstorm
development. A few storms are expected to increase in intensity and
move eastward across central and eastern Kansas during the late
afternoon and early evening. MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range,
0-6 km shear around 40 knots and 700-500 mb lapse rate near 8 C/km
will be favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of
greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with any supercell that
can become intense. Isolated severe wind gusts will also be
possible. The storms are expected to move eastward into the lower
Missouri Valley during the evening and overnight period, and should
gradually increase in coverage as a low-level jet strengthens.
Although the storms are expected to become elevated, instability and
effective shear are forecast to be strong enough for a continued
isolated severe threat.

...Southern High Plains...

A subtle mid-level shortwave trough will move into the southern High
Plains on Thursday. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
near this trough over parts of west Texas Thursday afternoon. Nearly
dry adiabatic lapse rates are evident on forecast soundings. This
environment should support isolated severe wind gusts, as a few of
the developing cells mix the stronger flow down to the surface
during the mid to late afternoon.

..Broyles.. 05/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 140602
SWODY2
SPC AC 140600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Friday afternoon and evening in parts of the
central Plains and lower to mid Missouri Valley.

...Central Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley...

West to west-southwesterly mid-level flow will remain in place on
Friday across the central U.S, as a subtle shortwave trough moves
into the central Plains. Ahead of this feature, moisture advection
will raise surface dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s F from the
eastern part of the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri
Valley. A surface low will deepen over far western Oklahoma, with an
inverted trough extending northward into central Kansas and
northeastward into southeast Nebraska. Isolated convective
initiation is expected near and to the east of the surface trough
during the late afternoon. Convective coverage should gradually
increase in the evening as low-level warm advection strengthens.

By late afternoon, model forecast show a pocket of moderate to
strong instability over northeast Kansas. Forecast soundings at 00Z
in this area have MLCAPE in the 3500 to 4000 J/kg range, with 0-6 km
shear near 35 knots. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be in
the 8 to 8.5 C/km range. This environment will be favorable for
supercells with large hail, and hailstones greater than 2 inches in
diameter will be possible within the more intense cores. Supercells
will also be capable of severe wind gusts. During the late evening
and overnight, a severe threat may continue over parts of the
central Plains, as the low-level jet strengthens. Isolated severe
storms will be possible in northwestern Kansas late in the period,
as a secondary shortwave approaches.

Further south into parts of western Oklahoma, a capping inversion is
forecast to be in place during the late afternoon and early evening.
However, lapse rates are forecast to be very steep with some models
showing 700-500 mb lapse rates near 9 C/km. In addition, moderate
deep-layer shear is forecast. If a cell can initiate in spite of the
cap, then supercells with large hail would be possible.

...Mid to Upper Mississippi Valley...

Low-level moisture will gradually increase across the mid to upper
Mississippi Valley Friday afternoon and evening. Although
instability is forecast to remain weak, isolated thunderstorms may
initiate as a low-level jet moves into the region from the
southwest. By mid to late evening, MUCAPE is forecast to increase
into the 1000 to 1500 J/kg with effective shear near 40 knots over
much of the mid to upper Mississippi Valley. For this reason,
isolated severe storms will be possible, with strong wind gusts and
hail as the primary threats.

..Broyles.. 05/14/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 150558
SWODY2
SPC AC 150556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of large to very large hail, wind damage and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes will be possible Saturday afternoon
and evening across parts of the central Plains. Scattered
thunderstorms will also pose potential for strong to severe winds
across the lower to mid- Missouri Valley.

...Synopsis...
A trough is expected to begin to deepen across the western US as
strengthening mid-level flow moves southward from the northern
Pacific Friday and Saturday. Downstream across the central US,
upper-level westerly flow will strengthen across the
central/northern Rockies with strengthening lee troughing across the
Plains. Persistent southerly flow through the southern and central
Plains should establish a broad warm sector across the Plains,
bounded to the west by a dryline and to the north by a diffuse warm
frontal zone. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across
portions of the central high Plains near a developing surface low
and along the warm front, with additional thunderstorms possible
along the dryline from eastern Kansas to western Oklahoma. Scattered thunderstorms will also be likely across portions of the lower to
mid Missouri Valley.

...Central Plains...

As a short-wave trough moves across the central Plains late Saturday
afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the
deepening surface low and the warm front by the afternoon across
eastern CO, northwest KS, and western NE. A broad warm sector will
be in place across much of the central Plains, with low to mid 60s
dew points reaching as far north as southern Nebraska. MLCAPE around
2000-2500 J/kg will be common by the afternoon. Initially, strong
deep layer shear and largely linear hodographs will support
potential for supercells capable of large to very large hail,
damaging winds, and a tornado. As the low-level jet strengthens into
the evening, low-level shear will increase but storm mode will also
likely shift to become more linear, with broken clusters/bowing
segments likely. A few of the mid-range hi-res CAMs depict a
stronger bowing segment moving across southern Nebraska into the
evening in concert with the increasing of the low-level jet. This
may present a more focused corridor of significant wind potential.
Confidence at this time in the exact location of this remains low.
Higher probabilities may be needed in subsequent outlooks if trends align.

...Western Oklahoma/northwest Texas...

Much of western Oklahoma and northwest Texas near the dryline will
remain capped at the base of the EML. Strong daytime heating and
favorable residence time within the dryline circulation may promote
an isolated supercell or two with potential for large to very large
hail and damaging winds by the late afternoon. Signal for
development is most favorable near the Red River in southern
Oklahoma where CAM guidance suggests potential and HREF calibrated
thunder probabilities are highest.

...Midwest/OH Valleys...

A leading mid-level shortwave trough with an enhanced belt of 50 kts
winds aloft will promote widely scattered thunderstorm development
into the mid- to upper Missouri Valley Saturday afternoon. MUCAPE
values on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg should support deep
convection, and effective bulk shear values near 30 knots within the
warm frontal zone may allow for organized convection with an
attendant threat for damaging wind.

..Thornton.. 05/15/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 210552
SWODY2
SPC AC 210550

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across portions
of the southern Plains with potential for large hail and damaging wind.

...Synopsis...
Two weak shortwaves, with one wave in central Plains and a secondary
wave into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys, are forecast within the
broader Northern Rockies trough through afternoon on D2/Friday. A
surface low will be located across eastern New Mexico/southeastern
Colorado with a front lifting northward into Kansas and a dryline
extending southward into southwestern Texas. Another surface low
will develop across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys with a warm
front lifting northward across Kentucky. These features will be the
focus for scattered thunderstorm development in both regions by the afternoon/evening.

...Southern and Central Plains...

Scattered thunderstorm development is expected across the Cap Rock
near the dryline in Texas and back into eastern New Mexico along the
high terrain Friday afternoon and evening. Steep low to mid-level
lapse rates will be in place across much of the region from eastern
New Mexico into western Texas. Dew points in the mid 50s to low 60s
and daytime heating will yield moderate instability amid deep layer
shear around 30-40 kts. This will promote initial supercells across
the high terrain with potential for additional multi-cell clusters
through time. These may grow upscale into an MCS into western
Oklahoma by the evening. The primary risk will be for large hail
before the damaging wind risk increases into the evening.
A few additional strong thunderstorms may extend into portions of
southern Kansas. The thermodynamic environment becomes less
favorable with northern extent due to widespread cloud cover and
morning precipitation. However, increasing mid-level flow and shear
may allow for a few organized cells with potential for large hail
and strong to severe wind further north.

...Tennessee and Ohio Valleys...

A warm front will lift across northern Tennessee into Kentucky
through the afternoon on Friday, with 60-70s dew points streaming
northward ahead of the approaching mid-level wave. Modest height
falls are expected across western Kentucky into the Ohio Valley,
with an increase in 850-700 mb flow. Widely scattered thunderstorms
are expected overnight into Friday morning. An increase in this
activity can be expected as a vorticity maxima and increasing large
scale ascent into the afternoon occurs. Though instability will be
marginal, guidance does suggest a plume of higher theta-e air may
advect into western/central Kentucky by the afternoon. In addition,
guidance suggests a few transient supercells will be possible with
potential for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado.

..Thornton.. 05/21/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 290559
SWODY2
SPC AC 290557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Valid 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected on
Saturday from parts of western and central Nebraska into southern
and western South Dakota. Isolated severe gusts and hail will also
be possible in the northern High Plains, and from parts of the
central Plains into the southern High Plains.

...Western and Central Nebraska/Southern and Western South
Dakota/Eastern Wyoming/Northeast Colorado/Southeast Montana...

At mid-levels, a low will remain over southwestern Wyoming on
Saturday, as a shortwave trough moves into the central High Plains.
At the surface, a trough will deepen over the central and northern
High Plains. Surface winds will be from a southeasterly direction
over much of Nebraska and South Dakota, which will result in
moisture advection throughout the day. By afternoon, surface
dewpoints in the 60s F will contribute to moderate instability over
much of the central Plains extending northwestward into the northern
High Plains. Low-level convergence is forecast to become maximized
near a well-developed dryline. In response, scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop near the dryline in the afternoon and move
north and northeastward across western and central Nebraska into
southern South Dakota.

To the east of the dryline and near the moist axis, MLCAPE is
forecast to increase into the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range by late
afternoon. Forecast soundings at 00Z in west-central Nebraska
suggest that 0-6 km shear will be in the 30 to 40 knot range with
700-500 mb lapse rates around 8 C/km. This will be favorable for
supercells with large hail and severe wind gusts. The severe threat
is expected to persist into the mid to late evening, as a cluster of
strong to severe storms moves northeastward across central Nebraska
and south-central South Dakota. Widely-spaced severe thunderstorms
will also be possible across parts of southeast Montana, but
instability is forecast to be weaker which will keep any severe
threat more localized.

...Kansas/Oklahoma/West Texas...

West-southwesterly mid-level flow will be located over much of the south-central U.S. on Saturday. At the surface, a sharply defined
dryline is forecast to be located from central Kansas
south-southwestward into western Oklahoma and west-central Texas. To
the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints in the 60s F will
contribute to moderate instability by afternoon. Along and to the
east of much of the dryline, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be in the
30 to 40 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This
environment will support an isolated severe threat. Hail and strong
wind gusts will be the primary hazards. Forcing is expected to be
relatively weak which will keep storm coverage isolated.

..Broyles.. 05/29/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 300602
SWODY2
SPC AC 300600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe gusts will be possible
Sunday afternoon and evening across parts of the mid Missouri
Valley. Isolated severe storms will be possible in parts of the
Dakotas, and from central Kansas into Missouri.

...Northern Plains/Lower to Mid Missouri Valley/Central
Plains/Northern Ozarks...

At mid-levels, a shortwave trough will move northward across the
northern Plains as heights rise across much of the central U.S. At
the surface, a dryline will sharpen during the day from
south-central South Dakota southward into east-central Nebraska and
central Kansas. To the east of the dryline, surface dewpoints will
range from the mid 60s F further north in southeast South Dakota to
near 70 F southward into southeast Nebraska and far northwest
Missouri. As surface temperatures warm within the moist sector,
moderate instability will develop across the mid Missouri Valley by
afternoon. Although large-scale ascent will remain weak over most of
the region, model forecasts suggest that a northwest-to-southeast
zone of low-level convergence will become focused during the
afternoon to the east of the dryline. This will support scattered
thunderstorm development, with the greatest convective coverage
expected from southeast South Dakota into eastern Nebraska and
western Iowa.

Forecast soundings south and southwest of Omaha in the late
afternoon have MLCAPE in the 3000 to 3500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear
near 30 knots, and low to mid-level lapse rates around 7 C/km. This
environment will support supercells with large hail and severe wind
gusts. The more dominant supercells could produce hailstones greater
than 2 inches in diameter. The severe threat is expected to continue
into the evening. A potential for isolated severe storms will also
be possible over parts of the western and central Dakotas, along an
axis of low-level moisture and instability.

Further south into parts of eastern Kansas and west-central
Missouri, a moist airmass will be in place on Sunday with surface
dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F. This will result in
moderate to strong instability by afternoon with MLCAPE likely to
peak in the 3000 to 5000 J/kg range over parts of eastern Kansas and
western Missouri. Although large-scale ascent will be limited,
isolated storms could initiate in areas where low-level convergence
becomes maximized. If a cell or two can develop and persist in the
late afternoon or early evening, then an isolated severe threat
would be likely. Hail and isolated severe wind gusts would be the
primary threats.

..Broyles.. 05/30/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS02 KWNS 310601
SWODY2
SPC AC 310559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts are expected
Monday afternoon and evening across parts of the central Plains.
Isolated severe wind gusts and hail will also be possible from the
parts of the lower to mid Missouri Valley and northern Ozarks
southeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley and Southeast.

...Central Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...

Mid-level heights will rise on Monday across the central U.S. as
southwesterly mid-level flow remains in place over the Rockies and
High Plains. At the surface, a low will deepen in far southwest
Kansas, with upslope easterly flow in place over much of the central
Plains. An axis of low-level moisture and instability is forecast to
setup from central Kansas west-northwestward into northeastern
Colorado, where surface dewpoints will be mostly in the 50s F. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, convective initiation will
take place in the higher terrain of east-central Colorado.
Additional storms are expected to develop further east across the
central High Plains along and near the instability axis.

Forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z have MLCAPE in
the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range with 0-6 km shear near 40 knots. In
addition, 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 8 C/km.
This environment will support supercells with large hail and severe
wind gusts. The potential for severe wind gusts should increase
during the evening as a cluster of cells move east-northeastward
across the central High Plains.

Further east and northeast into parts of eastern Kansas, eastern
Nebraska and eastern South Dakota, the presence of the mid-level
ridge will keep convective coverage more isolated. Beneath the
ridge, surface dewpoints are forecast to be from the mid 60s F north
to the lower 70s F south, which will result in an axis of moderate
to strong instability by afternoon. If storms can initiate and
persist in spite of the weak forcing, then a severe threat would be
expected. Severe wind gusts and hail would be the primary threats.

...Lower Missouri Valley/Northern Ozarks/Mid Mississippi Valley/Southeast...

A large-scale mid-level cyclonic flow pattern will be in place on
Monday across much of the eastern U.S. At the surface, a moist
airmass will be located from the lower Missouri Valley southeastward
into the mid Mississippi Valley and Southeast. Surface dewpoints
will be in the upper 60s F to lower 70s F. This will contribute to
an axis of moderate to strong instability by afternoon. Some model
forecasts move a shortwave trough, and an associated morning
convective system southward across the mid Mississippi Valley. Other
solutions keep convective coverage more isolated. This points to
spatial uncertainty concerning any severe threat. If the more
aggressive solutions pan out, then the wind-damage and hail threat
could be greatest from parts of western Tennessee southward into the
central Gulf Coast states. An isolated wind-damage and hail threat
may also extend eastward into northern Georgia and South Carolina,
along an east-to-west axis of instability.

..Broyles.. 05/31/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 010728
SWODY2
SPC AC 010727

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 AM CDT Mon Jun 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

CORRECTED TO ADD WIND PROBABILITY GRAPHIC

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large hail, severe wind gusts and potentially an
isolated tornado threat are expected on Tuesday afternoon and
evening in parts of the northern Plains. Strong wind gusts and hail
will also be possible in parts of the southern and central High
Plains. A few severe wind gusts may also occur from southern Georgia
into northern and eastern Florida.

...Northern Plains...

A mid-level shortwave trough will move northeastward on Tuesday over
the top of a moist and unstable airmass located in the northern
Plains. At the surface, a south-to-north corridor of low-level
moisture will be in place across the Dakotas. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the western edge of the moist sector
during the afternoon, being supported by large-scale ascent
associated with the shortwave trough. Storms will likely increase in
coverage during the late afternoon and early evening, with multiple
small storm clusters moving northeastward across the region.

Along and near the axis of low-level moisture, MLCAPE is forecast to
increase into the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range by afternoon. Within this
moist airmass, the most favorable environment for severe storms is
forecast near the mid-level trough in central North Dakota. Forecast
soundings around Bismarck at 21Z have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 45
knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km, suggesting that
supercells with large hail will be possible. In addition, late
afternoon forecast soundings have 0-3 km storm-relative helicity in
the 200 to 250 m2/s2 range, which could support an isolated tornado
threat. Severe wind gusts would also be possible with any organized
clusters that can persist from late afternoon into the evening.

...Southern and Central High Plains...

Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place on Tuesday in the
southern and central Plains, over the western edge of the moist
sector. Although model forecasts suggest that large-scale forcing
will be limited in most areas, some models forecast a corridor of
maximized low-level convergence in the afternoon over eastern
Colorado and eastern New Mexico. This would support isolated to
scattered thunderstorm development, with storms moving
east-northeastward across the southern and central High Plains
during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings to the east of
this axis of low-level convergence during the late afternoon have
0-6 km shear in the 20 to 25 knot range with 700-500 mb lapse rates
near 8 C/km. This suggests that hail will be possible. Isolated
severe wind gusts may also occur, especially if a convective cluster
can become somewhat organized during the early to mid evening.

...Northern and Eastern Florida/Southern Georgia...

An upper-level trough will move southward into the Southeast on
Tuesday, as a cold front advances southward into southern Georgia.
Along and to the south of the front, surface dewpoints from the mid
60s to lower 70s F will contribute to the development of moderate
instability by afternoon. Within this unstable airmass, low-level
lapse rates will become steep during the mid to late afternoon,
which may support an isolated wind-damage threat with the stronger
multicells. An isolated potential for severe wind gusts will also be
possible in the afternoon along sea breeze boundaries near the coast
of northern and eastern Florida.

..Broyles.. 06/01/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 020549
SWODY2
SPC AC 020547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Tue Jun 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with large to very large hail and severe wind gusts
will be possible Wednesday afternoon into night in parts of the
northern Plains into upper Mississippi Valley. More sporadic
occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts appear possible
across parts of the central High Plains and southwest Texas.

...Synopsis...

A mid/upper-level low initially over southern Saskatchewan Wednesday
morning is forecast to shift east into southern Manitoba through the
forecast period. At the same time, an attending belt of enhanced mid/upper-level winds will overspread the northern Plains into upper
MS Valley, along with a corridor of modest height falls. Elsewhere,
a lower-latitude short-wave trough will drift north-northeast from
the southern into central High Plains.

At the surface, low pressure linked with the Canadian upper low will
move through the same areas, while a trailing cold front pushes
through the northern Plains into the upper MS Valley. A secondary
surface low is expected to form along the front in central SD
Wednesday afternoon with the trailing portion of the boundary
settling into the NE Panhandle and southeast WY.

...Northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley Wednesday afternoon/night...

Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Wednesday morning across
portions of ND in association with a subtle short-wave trough moving
through the area. Model guidance is suggestive that a subset of the
early-day convection could linger through the morning into early
afternoon across portions of eastern ND into northwest MN, which
could ultimately limit the degree of air mass destabilization in
those areas. However to the south of the associated cloud
debris/convective outflow, stronger daytime heating in conjunction
with boundary layer dewpoints in the 60s and steep mid-level lapse
rates will support a moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE of
1500-2500 J/kg.

Modest height falls aloft will combine with convergence along the
cold front and preceding convective outflow boundary to support
robust thunderstorm development by mid/late afternoon across
portions of south-central and southeast ND into central and
northeast SD. Forecast soundings indicate the presence of a
vertically veering wind profile with 35-40 kt of effective bulk
shear, which will support organized storm modes, including
supercells. Elongated hodographs resulting from the presence of
relatively strong flow above 8-9 km will favor a conditional threat
for two-inch or greater hail with any sustained supercells. In
addition, some tornado threat could materialize by late afternoon
into early evening across portions of southeast ND into northeast SD
from the vicinity of the expected outflow boundary to ahead of the
secondary surface low, where some enhancement of low-level shear is forecast.

Increasing convergence along coalescing cold pools owing to a
strengthening low-level jet is expected to support upscale growth of
storms into an MCS Wednesday evening across portions of eastern SD
and western MN, with an associated risk for damaging wind gusts.

...Southern and Central High Plains Wednesday afternoon/evening...

The models indicate the potential for early-day storms across
portions of the southern High Plains owing to forcing for ascent
associated with the short-wave trough. Associated cloud cover is
expected to limit destabilization potential in those areas, with
comparably greater instability developing across the central Plains,
and across portions of southwest TX. The migration of the short-wave
trough into the central high Plains by afternoon into evening will
support clusters of diurnally enhanced thunderstorms in those areas,
with an attendant risk for sporadic large hail and damaging winds.
Weakening vertical shear with southward extent from the northern
into central Plains is expected to limit the potential for a more
organized severe-weather episode. Additional strong to severe storms
appear possible along the favored terrain of southwest TX, where
isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging winds may occur.

..Mead.. 06/02/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 030532
SWODY2
SPC AC 030530

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Wed Jun 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and damaging
winds are possible from parts of the northern High Plains into lower
elevations of the northern and central Plains Thursday afternoon
into night. More isolated occurrences of large hail and damaging
winds appear possible in parts of the upper Midwest and upper Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...

A low-amplitude, cyclonic flow regime will be maintained across the north-central U.S. with several embedded disturbances moving through
that airflow pattern. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to
move from the upper MS Valley into the upper Great Lakes with that
boundary trailing southwest through the mid MO Valley to eastern WY,
where it will link with a lee cyclone. A dryline/lee trough will
extend south from the low pressure through the central and southern
High Plains.

...Northern and Central Plains...

A short-wave trough embedded in the cyclonic flow initially over the
northern Rockies Thursday morning will shift into the northern High
Plains by afternoon. Strengthening mid-level winds and forcing for
ascent downstream from that feature will progressively overspread a
moist and moderately unstable (MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) upslope regime
present across portions of southeast MT, northeast WY, and western
SD, to the north of the surface boundary. Those processes will
contribute to initial storm development in those areas by mid
afternoon with the kinematic environment favoring supercells capable
of large to very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two.

Additional storm development will be possible farther east along the
front in central/eastern SD and northern NE amidst a moderately
unstable environment (MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg) with weakening
vertical shear and mid-level lapse rates with eastward extent. As
such, a mix of multi-cell and some supercell structures appear
possible with an associated risk for large hail and severe wind gusts.

Those two separate regimes may consolidate into one or more MCSs
Thursday evening/night, with a continued risk for damaging winds and
sporadic large hail.

Elsewhere, diurnally enhanced storms will be possible south along
the lee trough into northeast CO, as well as ahead of a sheared
vorticity maximum moving through portions of northeast KS, eastern
NE, and IA. Steep lapse rates and around 30 kt of deep-layer shear
may support isolated, high-based storms in the former area with some
wind and hail threat. Poorer mid-level lapse rates and weaker
vertical shear expected in the latter areas would limit
severe-weather potential to mainly wet microburst activity. Model
soundings do show some low-level hodograph curvature, so a brief
tornado cannot be ruled out.

...Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes...

Relatively poor mid-level lapse rates are forecast across the
pre-frontal warm sector Thursday; however the presence of
boundary-layer dewpoints in the low to mid 60s will largely
contribute to a narrow axis of MLCAPE up to 1000-1500 J/kg by
afternoon. The glancing influence of a mid-level low moving into the
northwest Ontario coupled with convergence along the front are
expected to foster widely scattered thunderstorms by mid to late afternoon.

The presence of 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will be sufficient for
multi-cells and transient supercell structures capable of locally
damaging wind gusts and perhaps marginally severe hail. Modest
strengthening of the low-level jet is noted across northern WI into
the western UP of MI late Thursday afternoon into evening, which
could yield sufficient low-level shear for some tornado risk. No
probabilities will be included in this forecast due to uncertainty
in the degree of instability in those areas.

..Mead.. 06/03/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 040523
SWODY2
SPC AC 040521

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTHERN KANSAS... MUCH OF IA...INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large to very large hail,
damaging winds with potentially significant gusts, and perhaps a
couple of tornadoes are expected Friday afternoon into night across
portions of the central Plains into upper Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...

A series of weak, mid-level disturbances will translate from the
northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes, ahead of a building
ridge from central Canada into the northern Plains. At the surface,
the primary focus for strong to severe thunderstorm development is a
front, which is expected to stretch from the western UP of MI
southwest through the mid MO Valley into the central High Plains by mid-afternoon Friday. A surface low is forecast to develop along the
front over south-central NE or north-central KS, with a dryline
extending south-southwest from that feature into northwest OK.

...Central Plains into the Upper Great Lakes...

Latest guidance is suggestive that the combination of steep
mid-level lapse rates and boundary-layer dewpoints in the upper 60s
to low 70s will support strong instability along and south of the
NE/IA segment of the front with HREF mean SBCAPE as high as
3000-4000+ J/kg. Forecast instability decreases with northeastward
extent into the upper Midwest, due in part to the potential for
early-day storms and lingering cloud cover.

While mid-level heights are forecast to rise through the day across
the central Plains, strong heating west of the dryline and south of
the surface front should sufficiently erode the cap for isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon into
early evening in the vicinity of the triple point over south-central
NE. Locally backed near-surface winds in that area will offset
somewhat marginal mid-level flow to yield 30-35 kt of deep-layer
shear, which will support supercell storm modes, given the degree of instability. Large to very large hail and perhaps a couple tornadoes
will be possible in the early life cycle of the storms, with a
subsequent transition to more of a damaging wind threat (with
significant gusts possible) by mid/late evening.

Additional severe storms are expected farther east along the front
into IA during the afternoon and evening hours with strong
instability and modest vertical shear supporting a threat for large
to very large hail and severe wind gusts.

Should subsequent model guidance show higher confidence in more
concentrated storm development along the NE/IA segment of the front,
an upgrade to a level 3/Enhanced Risk may be considered.

Farther northeast along the front across the upper Midwest, the
diffuse nature of the boundary casts some uncertainty on exactly
where the favored area for diurnally enhanced storm development will
be. Nonetheless, the presence of a moderately unstable air mass and
modest deep-layer shear will be supportive of a few severe storms
capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts. An isolated
severe-weather threat may continue to spread east into the upper
Great Lakes Friday evening into night, driven largely by warm
advection along a westerly low-level jet.

..Mead.. 06/04/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 050538
SWODY2
SPC AC 050536

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of large hail and damaging winds are
possible from portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley into the
Northeast, and over the northern High Plains. More isolated
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds are possible across
parts of the southern Plains and the lower Missouri Valley into Mid
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough initially from James Bay into the Great Lakes
Saturday morning is forecast to amplify while translating through
southern Quebec and the Northeast. Associated mid/upper-level jet
streaks within the base of the strengthening trough are forecast to
overspread the upper OH Valley through southern New England,
enhancing vertical shear and forcing for ascent in those areas.
Elsewhere, a jet streak will round the base of a deep trough over
the Canadian Rockies into Pacific Northwest, with the trough axis
pivoting east through the Columbia Basin toward the northern
Rockies. Meanwhile, a lower-latitude trough will move through the
southern and central Plains, with a belt of enhanced mid/upper-level
flow extending from southwest TX through the ArkLaTex into Ozark
Plateau during the peak of the diurnal heating cycle.

At the surface, an initially diffuse cold front associated with the
Great Lakes/Northeast short-wave trough will slowly advance through
the Great Lakes, northern OH Valley, and St. Lawrence Valley into
northern New England. Over the northern High Plains, a surface low
is forecast to deepen along a cold front emerging from the northern Rockies.

...Great Lakes and OH Valley into the Northeast...

Areas of showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing
Saturday morning within a broad zone of warm advection and moisture
flux occurring along a westerly low-level jet. A subset of those
thunderstorms are likely to persist and gradually intensify from
late morning into afternoon. Additional, diurnally enhanced storms
are expected to develop within preferred zones of confluence within
the weakly capped warm sector, which will destabilize from
west-to-east over the course of the day.

The 00z HREF indicates a corridor of mean SBCAPE of 1000-1500+ J/kg
developing by afternoon from the OH Valley into southern New
England, which will coincide with steadily strengthening deep-layer
shear. As such, the potential exists for organized storm modes,
including bowing line segments and supercells capable of swaths of
wind damage and large hail during the afternoon and evening hours.
The greatest supercell potential is expected to evolve across the
upper OH Valley, where the large hail is most probable, along with
the threat for a brief tornado or two.

...Northern High Plains...

Late-arriving forcing for ascent and more robust boundary-layer
moisture content are expected to delay thunderstorm development
until late afternoon or evening in the vicinity of the surface low
and front situated along the MT-ND Border. The presence of a
moderately unstable air mass and steadily strengthening vertical
shear are expected to support supercell storm modes with an
attendant threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The
severe-weather threat may continue into the overnight hours,
centered along the low-level jet axis.

...Red River Valley into southwest Texas...

As mentioned in the synopsis, a belt of enhanced mid-level flow is
forecast within the southern/southeastern periphery of the upper
low, which will enhance vertical shear to some extent. Slightly
cooler temperatures aloft coupled with a warm and moist boundary
layer will support a moderately unstable air mass in areas
unaffected by early storms and lingering cloud cover. Forecast
soundings indicate relatively weak capping, which should permit
increasing storm coverage by afternoon along any pre-existing
boundaries. The overall environment appears supportive of multicell
storms capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and locally
strong wind gusts during the afternoon and evening hours.

...Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...

Moderate to strong afternoon instability is forecast to develop
along and south of the trailing surface front or convective outflow
boundary remnant from Friday night thunderstorms. Weak low-level
warm advection coupled with the growing influence of a mid-level
trough approaching from the southwest are expected to support widely
scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. While
vertical shear is expected to remain relatively weak, the degree of
instability will support vigorous up/downdrafts capable of
marginally severe hail and/or locally damaging wind gusts.

..Mead.. 06/05/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 070600
SWODY2
SPC AC 070558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND THE SOUTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe storms capable of large to very
large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two are possible Monday
afternoon and evening in northeast Colorado, southeast Wyoming, and
the southern Nebraska Panhandle. Additional, more isolated
occurrences of large hail and damaging winds will be possible from
the Canadian border into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. Sporadic
damaging winds may occur from the Ozark Plateau into the Mid-south.

...Synopsis...

A mid-level jet streak and associated channeled vorticity maximum
initially from the northern Rockies into northern High Plains will
lift northeast into Manitoba, ahead of an amplifying short-wave
trough moving through the Pacific Northwest into northern Rockies.
Elsewhere, loosely organized troughing initially along the MS Valley
will shift northeast into the Great Lakes and OH Valley.

At the surface, a front initially stretching from the central
Dakotas to low pressure over western KS is expected to weaken
through the day in response to falling pressures across the northern
Rockies. A weak cyclone is expected to persist over southwest KS or
northwest OK, with a dryline extending southwest into western TX.

...Great Plains...

With the early-day passage of the lead short-wave trough through the
northern High Plains, mid-level heights may rebound slightly during
the afternoon, with negligible forcing for ascent indicated in model
guidance. As such, the most probable location for isolated to widely
scattered severe-storm development appears to be along favored
terrain from north of the Palmer Divide to along the Cheyenne Ridge.
There, moist upslope flow will become established by afternoon,
beneath a plume of steep lapse rates, yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500
J/kg. Vertical shear is expected to strengthen through the day with
effective bulk shear increasing to around 50 kt by late afternoon
into early evening. As such, the potential will exist for supercells
capable of large to very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or
two. The severe-threat may move into the adjacent High Plains Monday
evening before the storms weaken.

Across the lower elevations of the Plains there is considerably more
model spread in the timing and location of storms through the
forecast period, likely as a result of the weak forcing. The
residual surface front from eastern SD through central NE into
western KS, and south along the dryline into the OK/TX Panhandles
will be viable locations for diurnally enhanced storms amidst a
moderate to strongly unstable air mass. As such, isolated
occurrences for large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible.
Stronger deep-layer shear is forecast from northern KS into the
northern Plains, which may support a longer-lived, more organized
storm threat. However, given the model variability mentioned above,
no additional level 2/Slight Risk areas will be highlighted with
this forecast.

Finally, it appears a separate, elevated thunderstorm regime could
materialize early Tuesday morning from parts of eastern MT through
northern ND, where some large hail threat could develop.

...Ozark Plateau into the Mid-South...

A number of models indicate the potential for a complex of
thunderstorms to be ongoing Monday morning across portions of the
Ozark Plateau, aided by low-level warm advection along a modest
low-level jet. That activity is expected to continue east/southeast
through the day, with some potential for cold pool organization and
related damaging wind potential as the system encounters a moist and
moderately unstable air mass.

..Mead.. 06/07/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 110535
SWODY2
SPC AC 110534

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE AND WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered to scattered severe storms capable of mainly
damaging wind gusts are expected from western New England and the
Mid-Atlantic to eastern Tennessee and western North Carolina Friday
afternoon and evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail appear
possible from central New Mexico into far west Texas.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough and attending 50 kt mid-level jet streak
initially from the Upper Great Lakes into mid MS Valley are forecast
to weaken while progressing through the OH Valley to along the St.
Lawrence Valley. At the surface, a cold front initially from
southwest Ontario to near the confluence of the OH and MS Rivers at
12z Friday will advance east/southeast into New England and
Mid-Atlantic, where it will merge with a lee trough closer to the coast.

...Western New England and the Mid-Atlantic into the Central Appalachians...

While mid-level lapse rates are not expected to be overly steep, the
presence of a hot, moist boundary layer will largely contribute to
moderate to strong instability Friday afternoon ahead of the cold
front and in the vicinity of the lee trough. Thunderstorm
development is expected by early to mid afternoon across portions of
NY and PA within a zone of forcing for ascent preceding the
mid-level wave. Additional storm development is likely through the
afternoon along the front and/or favored terrain in the central and
southern Appalachians.

The strongest vertical shear is expected to lag the surface warm
sector to the west, leading to a mix of multicells and line segments
with the primary hazard being damaging wind gusts. Isolated
occurrences of marginally severe hail may also accompany the
strongest storms.

Individual thunderstorms are expected to gradually congeal into
outflow-driven clusters by late afternoon into early evening,
leading to a potentially more concentrated damaging-wind threat
across the Mid-Atlantic.

...Central New Mexico into Far West Texas...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within a moist and
moderately unstable upslope regime Friday afternoon. Vertical shear
is forecast to be somewhat marginal for storm organization; however,
the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates will be supportive of
some large-hail potential with the strongest updrafts.

...Northern High Plains into Minnesota and Wisconsin...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon
within a marginally unstable environment, with some potential for
gusty winds and/or small hail. Vertical shear is expected to be
relatively strong, and if subsequent model runs indicate greater
instability, severe-weather probabilities may need to be added.

..Mead.. 06/11/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 130517
SWODY2
SPC AC 130515

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1215 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts are
expected across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity Sunday afternoon and
evening. Additional strong to severe storms are expected across the
Upper Ohio Valley and Lower Great Lakes area.

...Mid-Atlantic Region...

An upper trough will be oriented over the Upper Great Lakes Sunday
morning. A shortwave embedded within the large-scale troughing will
pivot east across the Midwest/Lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic.
Ahead of this main shortwave trough, most guidance suggests a lead
impulse will overspread the Chesapeake Bay vicinity during the
afternoon. Low to midlevel west/southwesterly flow will increase to
around 30-40 kt in association with these features. This enhanced
flow will aid in organized thunderstorms in multiple bands during
the afternoon and evening.

Rich boundary layer moisture is expected to be in place to the lee
of the Blue Ridge across the NC/VA Piedmont and Chesapeake Bay
vicinity into southeast PA/southern NJ. Northward extent of moisture
return remains a bit uncertain, but at least low 60s F dewpoints
should filter into much of PA and NY ahead of an eastward-advancing
cold front. Strong heating will support a corridor of moderate
destabilization, with MLCAPE in the 1500-2500 J/kg range across
eastern VA/NC and vicinity. Instability is expected to be more muted
with northward extent where boundary layer moisture will be somewhat
less and midlevel lapse rates rather poor.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop within
lee troughing near the Blue Ridge and spread east across the Chesapeake/DelMarVa/southeast PA/southern NJ vicinity during the
afternoon to early evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the main
concern with these storms, though isolated hail or a tornado also
will be possible. If current model trends continue, higher coverage probabilities/upgrade to Enhanced (Level 3 of 5) could be needed in
subsequent outlooks. For now, wind probabilities have been increased
to 30 percent across the DelMarVa into southeast PA/southern NJ.

Additional bands/clusters of storms are likely to develop during the
afternoon ahead of the advancing cold front from the Upper Ohio
Valley into PA/NY. While instability will be lower across this area,
deep-layer flow will be stronger. Linear bands and clusters will
pose a risk for isolated severe/damaging wind gusts through the evening.

...Southeast NM to the ArkLaTex...

A southward sagging surface front/composite outflow will extend west
to east across the region. A very moist and moderately unstable
airmass will be in place ahead of the front. Isolated convection
cold pose a risk for strong wind gusts. Across southeast
NM/southwest TX, a few storms could also produce hail. Weak
large-scale ascent and convection becoming undercut by the surface
boundary will limit overall severe potential.

..Leitman.. 06/13/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 170527
SWODY2
SPC AC 170525

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KENTUCKY INTO
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible from
Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic, and across parts of the Northeast.
Damaging wind gusts will be the main hazard with this activity.

...Synopsis...

An upper shortwave trough over the Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio
Valley Thursday morning will pivot northeast across the Northeast
through evening. Strong deep layer southwesterly flow associated
with this feature will already be in place at the beginning of the
period, with 500 mb flow from 60-80 kt stretching across portions of
the Northeast. Meanwhile, an intense 850 mb low-level jet will lift
northeast across the central Appalachians, the Mid-Atlantic, and the
Northeast. A surface low over southern Ontario will pivot northeast
into Quebec, while a trailing cold front stretches from the Lower
Great Lakes west/southwest toward the Mid-MS Valley and the OK/TX
Panhandles Thursday morning. The northern extent of this boundary
will spread east across the Northeast while the western extent
across the Ohio Valley into the Plains slowly sags southward.

Across the Gulf Coast states, the remnants of current Potential
Tropical Cyclone One will migrate eastward across the region. This
feature could locally enhance deep layer shear amid a very moist and
modestly airmass.

...Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast Vicinity...

Convection will be ongoing Thursday morning in the vicinity of the
surface cold front. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist airmass
will be in place. Instability will likely be muted from PA/NY into
New England due to cloud cover, poor lapse rates and a narrow/modest
warm sector. Nevertheless, intense deep-layer flow will overspread
the Northeast and fast moving storms could produce damaging wind gusts.

Stronger instability is expected in a corridor from KY into the
Mid-Atlantic where richer boundary layer moisture will be in place.
This corridor also may see stronger heating. The strong 850 mb
low-level jet will gradually weaken through the day as it lifts
northeast, but strong deep-layer flow will persist atop this
moist/unstable airmass. Scattered storms are expected during the
afternoon into evening, posing mainly a risk of damaging gusts.

...Gulf Coast/Southeast...

The remnants of current Potential Tropical Cyclone One will migrate east/northeast across the region on Thursday. A very moist airmass
will be in place, and where stronger heating can occur, moderate destabilization is expected. Furthermore, the remnant low will
locally enhance vertical shear. Isolated strong storms capable of
producing gusty winds and a tornado or two will be possible.

...Southern Plains to Mid-South...

Severe thunderstorm potential is a bit more uncertain from
OK/northwest TX into the Ozarks vicinity. A very moist and unstable
airmass will be in place ahead of the southward sagging cold front.
However, large-scale ascent will be weak and capping could limit
storm coverage. If storms can develop ahead of the front, some risk
for strong wind and hail will be possible.

..Leitman.. 06/17/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 220559
SWODY2
SPC AC 220558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are expected across the central High Plains
on Tuesday with isolated severe storms possible into the Upper
Mississippi Valley. Large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts
will be the primary threats.

...Synopsis...
An upper low initially over southern Canada will shift into the
northern Plains with a belt of 40-50+ kt mid-level flow forecast
across the northern and central Plains into the upper Midwest. In
the low levels, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop from
the northern Plains into upper MS Valley with a trailing boundary
extending southwest into the central High Plains. Elsewhere, a cold
front will move off the Mid-Atlantic Coast with the trailing
extension of the boundary moving into the Southeast.

...Central High Plains into the Central/Southern Plains...

As mid-level flow strengthens across the Rockies, a lee cyclone will
develop across eastern Colorado and result in strengthening upslope
flow. Moderate to strong instability is expected within this zone.
This instability, combined with nearly 50 knots of mid-level flow,
will result in a supercell environment. Large to very large hail
will be the primary threat from this activity. Eventual upscale
growth into a cluster is expected, and a potential bowing MCS across
western Kansas and potentially northern Oklahoma should result in an
increasing severe wind threat during the evening and into the early
overnight hours.

...Portions of the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...

Some elevated storms may be ongoing at the beginning of the period
from northern Nebraska into southeast South Dakota on the nose of a
modest low-level jet. These storms could pose some large hail
threat. Additional storms may develop along the front during the
afternoon. Strong mid-level flow will result in adequate shear for
storm organization, but instability may be the primary limiting
factor. Extensive cloud cover may limit heating, but at least some
pockets of greater destabilization are possible. Within these areas,
a threat for isolated large hail may exist.

...Southeast...

A few strong storms capable of gusty winds appear possible Tuesday
afternoon along and ahead of the synoptic front from the Gulf Coast
to the eastern Carolinas. Poor lapse rates will be the primary
limiting factor for damaging wind gusts. However, as the event gets
closer and details regarding instability and frontal position become
more clear, wind probabilities may be warranted.

..Bentley.. 06/22/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 230610
SWODY2
SPC AC 230609

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS....

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms are possible across the central High
Plains on Wednesday with a threat for large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts. More isolated severe storms are possible across
portions of the Upper Midwest, Ozarks to Mississippi, and across
northern Utah.

...Synopsis...
Moderate northwesterly mid-level flow will be present from the
northern Rockies to the Midwest between a ridge across the Southwest
and a trough moving across southern Canada into the Upper Midwest. A
weak mid-level shortwave trough will likely be in the Arkansas
region at the beginning of the period and weaken with a secondary
mid-level shortwave trough moving across the central Rockies and
deamplifying the ridge. At the surface, a weak surface low will move
from northern Minnesota into Wisconsin. A secondary lee cyclone will
develop across eastern Colorado in response to the approaching
mid-level shortwave trough and strengthening mid-level flow.

...Central/southern High Plains...

Moderate to strong instability is forecast to develop within upslope
flow across eastern Colorado and southeast Wyoming on Wednesday
afternoon. As 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow advects over the
region, a favorable supercell environment will be in place.
Supercells are likely to develop by mid afternoon with an initial
threat of large to very large hail and severe winds. The more
organized supercell threat is forecast from east-central Colorado
northward where the 15% hail probabilities are confined. 15% wind
probabilities continue farther south as forecast soundings suggest
severe winds (perhaps 75+ mph) are likely, even if storms are less organized.

...KS/OK into the Ozarks...

Day 1 convection will have a considerable impact on the coverage and
severity of severe storms on Wednesday. Some guidance shows morning
storms along a frontal zone in Oklahoma and persisting into the
afternoon which will stabilize most of the region into the afternoon
and evening. However, if these storms do not form, a very favorable
airmass will remain in place and a MCS could develop across the High
Plains and move into this region Tuesday night. This could bring
some severe weather threat and it would have implications for where destabilization would be on Day 2/Wednesday. Therefore, a broad 5%
driven by severe winds seems appropriate at this time and additional
refinement can be made once the impact of prior day convection
becomes more clear.

...Western Great Lakes...

Lingering clouds associated with early-day storms may limit air mass destabilization into afternoon. However, where cloud breaks can
occur, the combination of cooling temperatures aloft and modest
boundary-layer moisture content will support moderate afternoon
instability. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
during the afternoon in the vicinity of the surface low and frontal
boundary, and within the belt of stronger mid-level flow, suggesting
some potential for large hail with the strongest updrafts.

...Eastern Arkansas into Mississippi...

There is considerable uncertainty regarding the coverage of storms
across Arkansas at 12Z Wednesday, but given forcing from a mid-level
trough and moderate to strong instability across the region, either re-intensification of morning convection or additional afternoon
convection is possible within this zone. Damaging winds will be the
primary threat.

...Northern Utah...

A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move across northern Utah
during the day on Monday with weak to moderate instability. Forecast
soundings show a deeply-mixed sub-cloud layer which may result in
severe winds. Some consideration was given to a CIG1 area given the
potential for organized storms in the steep lapse rate environment,
but did not have the confidence for 75+ mph wind gusts to add it at
this time.

..Bentley.. 06/23/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 240600
SWODY2
SPC AC 240558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND INTO THE OZARKS....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across portions of
the High Plains with a threat for large hail and severe wind. Storms
are also expected across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma into
the Ozarks where large hail, severe winds, and a few tornadoes are
all possible.

...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude shortwave trough will move through the Great Lakes
during the day on Thursday. A weak surface low will move across
Ontario with a trailing cold front into the Ohio Valley. Farther
west, several mid-level shortwave troughs will be embedded within
the broader zonal flow across the Plains. The most prominant feature
will be a mid-level shortwave trough that is forecast to move from
eastern Colorado Thursday morning to the Ozarks by the evening. A
lee surface cyclone is forecast in the Texas Panhandle vicinity.

...High Plains...

Widespread convection/cloud cover is likely from northern Colorado
into eastern Wyoming on Thursday morning. This will limit
surface-based instability across the region for much of the day.
Eventual destabilization is expected by late afternoon/early evening
as the cloud cover clears. As a mid-level shortwave trough moves
through Wyoming, expect storms to develop during the evening with
some severe wind potential. The lack of strong heating has lessened
hail and significant wind potential across this region. Therefore,
the CIG1 area has been removed.

Farther south, stronger heating/destabilization is expected which,
combined with moderate mid-level flow, may support some supercell
threat with weak upslope flow across southeast Kansas, and
continuing east along the frontal boundary into the OK/TX Panhandles.

...Northern Oklahoma/southern Kansas into the Ozarks...

A morning MCS is expected to move along/north of a frontal zone
across Kansas during the morning on Thursday. In the wake of this
morning MCS, strong destabilization is forecast with moderate
mid-level flow aloft. Therefore, supercells are expected to develop
on the remnant outflow/frontal zone Thursday afternoon and evening
from southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma potentially into the
Ozarks. Given storm motion that should be parallel to the boundary,
the enhanced vorticity along this zone could result in a locally
greater tornado threat. In addition, most guidance shows a
strengthening low-level jet across Oklahoma and into southern
Kansas. This may support a strong tornado threat, particularly
during the evening.

...Eastern Ohio to southern New York...

Weak to moderate instability is expected to develop across eastern
Ohio and western Pennsylvania Thursday morning with dewpoints in the
mid 60s. Moderate to strong forcing on the leading edge of a compact
mid-level jet streak should result in storm development along the
front by mid-afternoon. Strong shear should assist in storm
organization, but weak lapse rates may limit overall updraft
strength. Due to the weak to moderate instability and strong shear,
5% wind probabilities are warranted.

..Bentley.. 06/24/2026

$$
--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 280602
SWODY2
SPC AC 280600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the central/northern
Plains into the Upper Midwest on Monday. Large hail and severe winds
are the primary concerns, though a couple of tornadoes may also occur.

...Synopsis...
A compact shortwave trough will evolve out of the upper trough in
the northern Rockies. The timing of this feature remains a bit
uncertain. The strongest mid-level ascent will likely occur in
eastern Dakotas/western Minnesota after 00Z. A surface low will
deepen within the eastern Dakotas and lift north-northeast with
time. A very moist airmass will be in place between a cold front in
the central Plains and a warm front in the Upper Midwest. Upper
level ridging will continue in the Midwest/East with modest
breakdown of this ridge expected in the Dakotas/Minnesota.

...Eastern Dakotas into northern Minnesota...

The forecast remains rather uncertain across these regions. At least
weak convection appears probable within parts of the Dakotas into
western Minnesota during the morning. How this activity evolves will
play a role in where afternoon severe potential will exist. Model
agreement has marginally increased with regard to the evolution of
the shortwave trough in the northern Plains and the surface low
migrating north-northeast near the Red River. Even so, upper-level
ridging that will persist through much of the period limits
confidence in if and how many storms will develop during the
afternoon/early evening. Should sufficient destabilization occur
near the surface low, a portion of eastern North Dakota into
northwest Minnesota appear to have the greatest relative potential
for severe storms. All severe hazards would be possible given the
50+ kt of effective shear, 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE, and locally stronger
low-level shear. Model solutions for activity near the surface low
and areas southward into eastern South Dakota and western Minnesota
are highly disparate. The ECMWF would suggest some potential for an
MCS to develop near the surface low and track through parts of northern/east-central Minnesota along the buoyancy gradient. This
particular scenario has been fairly consistent along with the
depiction of a more southern surface low/upper trough. Solutions
such as the RRFS would suggest a supercell or two could occur
farther south along the South Dakota/Minnesota border.

...Nebraska into southern/central Minnesota...

Though the timing of development differs, there has been an
increasing convective signal trend in recent guidance along the cold
front. There is at least some potential for this to occur during
late afternoon with a window for storms to be surface based, but it
is more probable that it occurs after dark when the low-level jet
increases. Large hail could occur early in the convective cycle, but
deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary should mean a quick
transition into linear structures. Severe wind gusts will likely be
the primary concern, though a low-end tornado threat may exist given
the stronger low-level jet.

..Wendt.. 06/28/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 010602
SWODY2
SPC AC 010601

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0101 AM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms will be possible from the northern Plains
into the Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Thursday. Isolated
strong to severe storms may also occur in the Tennessee
Valley/Southeast as well as parts of the Northeast.

...Northern Plains into Mid-Missouri Valley...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft across the Rockies will promote a lee
trough and a modest surface low in the vicinity of the Black Hills.
A surface boundary will arc from eastern Montana into northern South
Dakota and southern Minnesota. Moisture advection into the High
Plains will couple with higher terrain of MT/WY/SD as well as the
surface boundary to initiate convection during the afternoon.
Supercells will be likely initially with an attendant risk of large
to very-large hail, severe winds, and a tornado or two. Mid-level
lapse rates of 8-9 C/km will promote rapid intensification and
strong downdrafts. Couple this with modest effective shear of 40-45
kt and upscale growth will be likely with time. An MCS is possible
and would likely track along the surface boundary. Wind gusts of 75+
mph would be possible with this activity.

While most guidance does not show development along the surface
boundary towards the mid-Missouri Valley, there will be weak warm
advection ongoing through the day that will increase by late
afternoon. Should storms develop here, they would likely be more isolated/cellular. A similar threat for large/very-large hail and
severe gusts would exist along with a locally greater tornado
threat. This would especially be the case if storms can remain
discrete into the evening when low-level shear increases. Depending
on whether this activity develops/evolves, this will have an impact
on the spatial extent of a greater threat for severe winds into the
evening and beyond. Given that uncertainty, the Slight Risk will be
maintained with potential increases in wind probabilities in
subsequent outlooks as confidence increases.

...Midwest...
Convection is expected to be ongoing in parts of the region. At
least an isolated threat for damaging winds and large hail would
exist with this activity. There remain some potential for
intensification to occur as storms move east during the day. The
Slight Risk remains in place into far western Lower Michigan to
account for this potential. Later in the afternoon, redevelopment is
possible along the outflow from earlier activity. The most robust
model signals are in Iowa and parts of Wisconsin. Large hail would
be possible especially in Iowa where mid-level lapse rates would be
steeper. Otherwise damaging winds would be the main threat. A
tornado or two could occur, but low-level shear will be rather weak.

...Northeast...
Strong buoyancy and modest shear will again be in place across the
region. At least isolated storms are possible during the afternoon.
Damaging winds should be the main threat with this activity.
Isolated large hail may occur with the strongest storms, but modest
mid-level lapse rates will limit this threat. Some guidance does
show more organized activity moving into the region from
Ontario/Quebec, but this may not occur until late afternoon.
Confidence in that scenario occurring is too low for an increase in
wind probabilities.

...Tennessee Valley/Southeast...
Strong heating of a very moist airmass will promote scattered to
numerous storms during the afternoon. Congealing outflows will help
to organize activity even with very weak shear. Given mid-level
lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km, at least marginally severe storms will be
possible. Damaging winds are the expected hazard.

..Wendt.. 07/01/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 020602
SWODY2
SPC AC 020600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK
HILLS VICINITY INTO PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe storms are possible from the
northern/central Plains into the Midwest, Tennessee Valley, and
Mid-Atlantic on Friday.

...Synopsis...
Upper-level ridging will begin to flatten and spread westward on
Friday. Modest southwesterly flow aloft will continue across much of
the Rockies. In the East, stronger cyclonic flow aloft will continue
in New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic. A surface low will
deepen in parts of the central High Plains. A
quasi-stationary/outflow composite boundary will be situated within
the central/northern Plains into the Lower Great Lakes region.

...Black Hills vicinity into Mid-Missouri/Mississippi Valleys...
Forecast uncertainty remains with respect to how convection evolves
Thursday night into early Friday morning. Some convection could
linger in parts of South Dakota and possibly Nebraska. At the very
least, portions of the central/northern Plains will be impacted by
outflow from earlier convection. The position of the outflow will
determine where the greater severe threat develops during the
afternoon. Modest southwesterly flow aloft will drive the
development of the lee trough that will advect upper 50s to low 60s
F dewpoints into the High Plains. A subtle shortwave trough depicted
in most guidance will initiate convection within the higher terrain
of eastern Montana/Wyoming and the Black Hills. Initial supercells
will be capable of large to very large hail and severe winds.
Additional convection is also possible farther southeast along the
outflow boundary where a weak surface low may enhance low-level lift
of a weakly capped airmass. A similar threat for large/very large
hail and severe winds would accompany this activity. Should the
activity farther east remain discrete into early evening, a
marginally greater tornado risk would exist. Between these two zones
of convection, upscale growth will allow one or more MCS to develop
and track along the boundary. The lead MCS would have greater
potential for severe winds (some 75+ mph). The low-level jet
response during the evening will not be overly strong, but it should
be enough to help convection to continue into parts of Iowa later in
the evening.

...Northern Illinois into northwest Ohio...
With an MCV and related convection likely moving through the Great
Lakes region to the north, an outflow/theta-e boundary will settle
somewhere within these areas. Model guidance suggests that heating
along this boundary will promote scattered storm development. Modest enhancement to deep-layer shear due to the MCV may allow for modest organization of a cluster/linear segment that travels east along the
boundary. Wind probabilities have been increased to account for this potential.

...Mid-Atlantic...
Model spread still exists as to where the greatest storm coverage
will exist during the afternoon. Temperatures nearing 100 F and 60s
F dewpoints will support strong destabilization across the region.
The degree of temperature-dewpoint spreads will promote efficient
downdraft production. Effective shear will be greatest in the
northern Mid-Atlantic where around 30 kt of flow at 500 mb will
exist. This should promote clusters/linear segments capable of wind
damage. Towards the Blue Ridge, storm coverage is much less certain
given the very weak forcing. Damaging downbursts are still possible
with storms that can develop. Model trends will continue to be
monitored for any increase in expected storm coverage.

...Tennessee Valley into Ohio Valley...
Strong heating of a mid/upper 60s F dewpoint airmass will promote
4000+ J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. Weak shear will limit storm
organization, but subtle shortwave troughs moving around the upper
anticyclone could allow for locally greater storm
coverage/clustering. Damaging downburst winds are the expected hazard.

...Northern Plains into Upper Midwest...
Forecast uncertainty remains medium to high in terms of how much destabilization will occur within these areas. Guidance generally
suggests convection/cloud cover will exist during the morning and
potentially parts of the afternoon. A broad marginal remains in
place for damaging winds and isolated large hail potential should
enough destabilization occur.

..Wendt.. 07/02/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 030535
SWODY2
SPC AC 030533

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1233 AM CDT Fri Jul 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO MID
ATLANTIC AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of storms may evolve across parts of the Allegheny Plateau
into Mid Atlantic and across the central Great Plains Saturday
afternoon and evening, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large
hail is also possible across the Great Plains

...Discussion...
Models indicate that a remnant mid-level high, now centered near or
just east the southern Appalachians, will become suppressed by the
beginning of this period. A new high may become a bit more
prominent upstream, near and to the lee of the southern Rockies,
with ridging also building to its northwest, from portions of the
eastern Great Basin through portions of the mid Missouri Valley. To
the east of this ridging, weak initially zonal flow may transition
to a broadly cyclonic regime across the Upper Midwest and lower
Missouri into Ohio Valleys. Stronger westerlies are likely to
remain confined to higher latitudes, but one embedded larger-scale
trough is forecast to dig across the Canadian Maritimes and New
England Saturday through Saturday night.

In lower levels, more substantive cooling/drying may overspread much
of northern New England during the day, and perhaps the Adirondacks
vicinity and portions of the upper Great Lakes by late Saturday
night. However, this may be preceded by a diffuse/weak front,
perhaps augmented by convective outflow is some locations, advancing
southward across the Mid Atlantic, Ohio and lower Missouri Valleys
and central Great Plains through the period.

Along and south of the lead front/convective outflow, a
boundary-layer characterized by seasonably high moisture content may
again become characterized by large potential instability with
daytime heating. This will probably become supportive of widely
scattered to scattered strong thunderstorm development posing at
least some severe weather risk. The magnitude/areal coverage of
this potential remains uncertain, and will largely be influenced by sub-synoptic developments that are of low predictability at this
extended time frame, as evidenced by sizable model spread still
apparent in latest model output, including convection-allowing guidance.

...Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic...
Potential convective evolution remains uncertain, with forcing for
ascent to support thunderstorm development unclear. However, there
appears some general consensus in model output that at least
scattered thunderstorm development will initiate in response to
daytime boundary-layer destabilization across the Allegheny Plateau,
as mid-level heights subtly begin to fall. This is forecast to
develop eastward across the Mid Atlantic by early evening.

Given the degree of instability forecast, and possibly a belt of
convectively augmented flow (including 30-40 kt in the 850-500 mb
layer) spreading east-southeast of the lower Great Lakes/upper Ohio
Valley vicinity, there appears potential for one or two organizing
clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts to evolve.

...Central Great Plains...
Given the possible general tendency for larger-scale mid-level
height rises across the Rockies and adjacent Great Plains, and
spread evident in model output, convective potential for this period
remains uncertain. However, lingering convectively generated or
augmented perturbations within evolving northwesterly mid-level flow
could support widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm
development, including a few supercells by early Saturday evening.
This may be focused in moistening southeasterly low-level flow
across parts of northeastern Colorado and western Nebraska, and near
a zone of strengthening differential heating on the southwestern
flank of a stalled outflow boundary across western into central Kansas.

Warm advection and convergence near the nose of a nocturnally
strengthening southerly low-level jet, with boundary-layer
decoupling across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity into
southwestern Kansas, seems to offer the best support for a possible
upscale growing cluster, which could maintain a risk for large hail
and strong to severe surface gusts into Saturday night.

..Kerr.. 07/03/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 040512
SWODY2
SPC AC 040510

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Developing thunderstorm clusters may pose a risk for damaging wind
gusts across parts of the Mid Atlantic and parts of the southern
Great Plains Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Discussion...
While ridging in the subtropical latitudes remains relatively
suppressed, models indicate that the stronger mid-latitude
westerlies will remain confined to the northern mid-latitudes
through this period. Within this regime, a mid-level short wave
trough is forecast to accelerate east of the Canadian Maritimes and
New England early Sunday, before merging into a significant trough
and embedded mid-level low digging across/southeast of the Labrador Sea.

Upstream, mid-level troughing, including at least a couple of
embedded smaller-scale perturbations, is forecast to continue
progressing across and east-northeast of the Canadian Prairies. It
appears that forcing with the lead impulse may support modest
surface cyclogenesis across northern Saskatchewan through Manitoba.
However, even with the trailing perturbation, it appears that
forcing for ascent will generally remain focused to the north of the international border.

To the south of the international border, models suggest that
mid-level ridging, across the eastern Great Basin into north central
Great Plains at the outset of the period, will expand across the
middle Missouri Valley toward upper Mississippi Valley Sunday
through Sunday night. Downstream, it appears that weak troughing,
likely with a number of embedded convectively generated
perturbations, will continue to overspread the middle Mississippi
and Ohio Valleys through northern Mid Atlantic.

To the east and south of this troughing, seasonably high
boundary-layer moisture content may again become supportive of
moderate to strong potential instability. However, given the
generally weak nature of the large-scale flow and synoptic forcing,
severe thunderstorm potential will largely be influenced by
sub-synoptic developments with rather low predictability at this
extended time frame. This continues to be reflected in sizable
spread evident in convection allowing and related guidance.

...Mid Atlantic...
There remains little general change from prior model output. It
still appears that a low-level baroclinic zone could remain fairly
well defined to the north and northeast of a surface low forecast to
develop to the lee of the Blue Ridge by late Sunday afternoon. Both
of these features could become a focus for vigorous thunderstorm
development, though there appears a better signal in latest guidance
for activity to form off the higher terrain into the lee surface
trough, at least initially, before perhaps propagating along or just
south of the remnant front toward coastal areas. Aided by a
lingering modest, but weakening, belt of convectively augmented
westerly flow, it is possible that one or two clusters could
organize and become accompanied by better potential to produce
damaging wind gusts late Sunday afternoon and evening.

...Southern Rockies into adjacent Great Plains...
Uncertainty appears even greater than suggested in prior model runs, particularly with regard to whether there will become a well-defined
boundary, supported by differential surface heating by late
afternoon, to focus strong thunderstorm development. The higher
terrain of the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains into the Raton
Mesa/ridge vicinity appears to offer the most probable focus for
thunderstorm development by late Sunday afternoon. There is some
signal that activity could consolidate into a cluster while
propagating southeast of the higher terrain into a residual deeply
mixed boundary layer over the high plains Sunday evening,
accompanied by potential to produce strong wind gusts.

...Northwestern North Dakota...
There remains a mixed signal within model output concerning
potential destabilization and thunderstorm development along surface
troughing extending south of the international border late Sunday
afternoon and evening. With stronger mid/upper support likely to
remain to the north of the border, the potential seems low, but low
severe probabilities will be maintained, at least for now.

..Kerr.. 07/04/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 060512
SWODY2
SPC AC 060510

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 AM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms, which may evolve into an organized cluster
with increasing potential to produce severe wind gusts by late
Tuesday evening, are possible across parts of central and eastern
South Dakota into southwestern Minnesota. Other thunderstorm
clusters may form to the east of the Blue Ridge Mountains and
southwest of the Ark-La-Tex vicinity and pose a risk for damaging
wind gusts late Tuesday afternoon or evening.

...Discussion...
It still appears that the westerlies may become a bit less
progressive across the higher latitudes of North America by Tuesday.
As a mid/upper high evolves in the northwestern Canadian Arctic
latitudes, a deep remnant lower/mid-tropospheric cyclone may only
slowly migrate east-northeastward across Hudson Bay, toward the
northern Quebec shores, while a notable upstream trough slowly
pivots inland of the British Columbia coast.

In advance of the trailing perturbation, low-amplitude troughing,
comprised of at least a couple smaller-scale perturbations within
the modest zonal westerlies across the northern tier of the U.S.,
is forecast to progress east of the northern Rockies. As it does,
models suggest that it will gradually flatten initial mid-level
ridging across the middle Missouri Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night.

Otherwise, mid-level ridging is forecast to remain prominent along
an axis from the subtropical eastern Pacific through the central and
southern Great Plains, while also developing northwestward from the
subtropical western Atlantic into parts of the southeast. It
appears that weak mid-level troughing will dig across the southern
New England and northern Mid Atlantic coast, leaving a remnant shear
axis between the ridging, roughly from the Ohio Valley into
southeastern Great Plains, with perhaps a well-defined,
quasi-stationary circulation along it across the Mid South vicinity.

...Parts of the middle Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest...
Beneath steep mid-level lapse rates, associated with a plume of
elevated mixed-layer air slowly becoming suppressed southward across
the middle Missouri Valley, it still appears that stronger
boundary-layer heating may contribute to moderate to strong
destabilization by late Tuesday afternoon. Guidance suggests that
this will focus in a corridor along/south of a stalling surface cold
front trailing the Hudson Bay cyclone, along which surface dew
points increasing to near 70F may contribute to CAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg.

Although timing of stronger thunderstorm initiation remains
uncertain, this probably will be aided by forcing for ascent
associated with the approaching mid-level perturbations. Once this
occurs, deep-layer shear appears likely to become at least
marginally supportive of supercell structures. Particularly by late
Tuesday evening, near the nose of a nocturnally strengthening
boundary-layer jet across central into eastern South Dakota, the
evolution of an upscale growing and organizing cluster appears
possible, accompanied by increasing potential to produce strong to
severe wind gusts as it propagates eastward.

...Mid Atlantic...
Both HREF and REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance are similar with
highest probabilities for thunderstorms becoming concentrated along
and east of the Blue Ridge by late afternoon. Although embedded
within deep-layer westerly mean flow on the order of 20 kt or less, thermodynamic profiles with high precipitable water content and
modest CAPE may support locally strong downbursts in stronger storms.

There does appear at least some potential for weak low-level warm
advection to provide support for an upscale growing cluster
propagating southeastward toward coastal areas by Tuesday evening,
with continuing risk for potentially damaging winds along a
consolidating gust front.

...Northeast Texas into northern Louisiana...
Both HREF and REFS calibrated thunderstorm guidance currently focus
higher thunderstorm probabilities by late Tuesday afternoon across
the region, near the southwestern periphery of the broad, weak
mid-level cyclonic circulation. Aided by inflow of moderate
potential instability, within a corridor of stronger daytime
heating, some clustering of storms appears possible, accompanied by
potential for a few strong downbursts.

..Kerr.. 07/06/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 070532
SWODY2
SPC AC 070530

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of strong thunderstorms with potential to produce severe
hail and wind may evolve across parts of the Upper Midwest into
central Great Plains Wednesday through Wednesday night.

...Discussion...
While a blocking, but perhaps weakening, mid-level high lingers in
the north central Canadian Arctic latitudes, it appears that one
still fairly vigorous short wave trough and embedded low will begin
to dig southeast of the Hudson Bay vicinity Wednesday through
Wednesday night, while an upstream short wave trough pivots across
the Canadian Rockies, then northward toward the Northwest
Territories. In association with these developments, within a belt
of modest westerlies closer to and south of the international
border, subtle mid-level ridging may overspread the northern
Rockies, with similar amplitude downstream troughing digging across
the northern Great Plains, Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region.

Beneath this regime, a weak cold front, perhaps reinforced by
convective outflow in some locations, is forecast to overspread much
of the remainder of the Upper Midwest/adjacent Great Lakes and
middle Missouri Valley vicinity by late Wednesday night. This may
be preceded across parts of the central Great Plains by conglomerate
convective outflow emanating from considerable thunderstorm
development spreading off the Laramie Range/Front Range vicinity,
within weak west-northwesterly steering flow.

In the southern mid- to subtropical latitudes, modest mid-level
ridging is forecast to generally prevail, but weak remnant troughing
may slowly migrate from the Mid South toward the southern
Appalachians, along its northern periphery.

...Upper Midwest...
Steeper mid-level lapse rates associated with a remnant plume of
elevated mixed-layer air may become increasingly confined to the
higher plains during this period. However, seasonably high moisture
content along/ahead of the southward advancing cold front may still
become supportive of mixed-layer CAPE of 1500-2000+ J/kg with
daytime heating.

Based on latest guidance, it is appearing less probable that a
cluster of strong continuing thunderstorm development, with a
possible MCV, will be substantively maintained into this period
across parts of the Upper Midwest into adjacent Great Lakes region.
But, this remains uncertain.

There appears a stronger signal for renewed thunderstorm development
within the corridor of pre-frontal destabilization trailing to the
southwest, across central into southern Wisconsin, southeastern
Minnesota and northeastern Iowa by late Wednesday afternoon, aided
by forcing for ascent with the digging mid-level troughing.

It is possible that a belt of convectively augmented westerly
mid-level flow, including 30+ kt around 700 mb, contributes to
sufficient shear for evolving supercell structures. These may pose
a risk for severe hail, and perhaps some potential for a tornado or
two, before damaging wind gusts become more prominent prior to storm
weakening Wednesday evening.

...Central Great Plains...
By late Wednesday afternoon or early evening, it appears that
boundary-layer destabilization associated with moistening easterly
low-level flow may support intensification of initially scattered
thunderstorm development off the Laramie Mountains through Colorado
Front Range. Pronounced veering of wind fields with height may
yield sufficient shear for supercells posing a risk for severe hail
and wind.

There remains a fairly notable signal that forcing associated with a nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, and perhaps a subtle
digging mid-level perturbation, may contribute to an upscale growing
and organizing cluster with potential to produce more widespread
strong to severe wind gusts Wednesday evening into Wednesday night.

...Parts of the southern Mid Atlantic...
Thermodynamic profiles may again become conducive to locally strong
downbursts in convection likely to develop off the Blue Ridge
Mountains, and within surface troughing to the north and northeast
of a weak developing lee surface low. Aided by forcing for ascent
associated with weak low-level warm advection and convergence, an
upscale growing cluster, with potential to produce potentially
damaging wind gusts along the leading edge of consolidating outflow,
could overspread the North Carolina Piedmont by Wednesday evening.

..Kerr.. 07/07/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 080528
SWODY2
SPC AC 080527

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS AND ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorm development, potentially including a
few evolving clusters, may impact portions of the central Great
Plains and lower Missouri Valley through lower Ohio Valley Thursday
through Thursday night, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and some hail.

...Discussion...
Modest mid-latitude westerlies likely will remain centered near the Canadian/U.S border through this period. In the wake of one short
wave trough slowly continuing to pivot northward into the Northwest Territories, and ahead of another digging near the British Columbia
coast, broad mid-level ridging is forecast to build across the
central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity Thursday through Thursday
night. Downstream, to the south of a perturbation digging southeast
of Hudson/James Bays, broad mid-level troughing is forecast to
overspread the lower Great Lakes through northern Atlantic Seaboard.

In lower latitudes, a number of more subtle perturbations are
forecast to progress through generally weak zonal flow, around the
northern periphery of mid-level ridging centered in the subtropics.
However, there remains a notable signal within model output that at
least a couple of these may be amplified by developing convection,
accompanied by belts of strengthening flow which could promote
organizing convection capable of producing swaths of strong to
severe wind gusts.

While the most substantive thunderstorm development through this
period appears likely to focus east of the Front Range into portions
of the lower Missouri Valley through Ohio Valley, as well as across
parts of the northern Mid Atlantic, more widely scattered strong to
severe thunderstorm development appears possible closer to the
mid-latitude westerlies. This may focus along a weak surface front
advancing slowly southward across parts of the lower Great Lakes
through northern New England, and within lee surface troughing
across parts of the northern Great Plains.

...Lower Missouri/Ohio Valleys...
Most guidance continues to indicate the generation of one or two
notable mesoscale convective vortices and associated jet streaks, at
least initially emanating from convection developing across the
central Great Plains Wednesday night. The NAM continues to forecast
the strongest convective perturbation, though the 08/00Z run now
suggests that this will occur with convection overspreading east
central Missouri into southern Illinois late Thursday night.
Otherwise, a consensus of guidance generally suggests the
development of strengthening westerly mid-level flow (on the order
of 30-50 kt around 700 mb) in a belt across the lower Missouri
Valley during the day, before slowly shifting toward the lower Ohio
Valley through Thursday night.

Based on latest model output, strongest renewed thunderstorm
development seems most probable within forcing for ascent associated
with strengthening low-level warm advection, along an outflow
boundary trailing the initial MCV. Aided by inflow of seasonably
high boundary-layer moisture content (including surface dew points
in the 70s) supportive of CAPE on the order of 2000+ J/kg, vertical
shear may become supportive of a sustained organized convective
system with potential to produce strong to severe wind gusts by
Thursday evening into Thursday night, if not earlier.

...Front Range into central Great Plains...
Latest model output continues to indicate that moistening
southeasterly low-level flow across the high plains will destabilize sufficiently by late afternoon to support intensifying thunderstorm
development off the Front Range. Aided by shear due to pronounced
veering of winds with height from the surface to mid-levels, this
may include widely scattered supercells initially.

Aided by forcing for ascent downstream of an approaching mid-level perturbation, convection-allowing guidance suggests that storms will subsequently increase in number across the high plains, with
consolidating cold pools supporting further upscale growth and
eastward propagation. Forcing for ascent near the nose of a
strengthening nocturnal southerly low-level jet may contribute to
maintenance of a cluster with potential to produce strong to severe
gusts into late evening/overnight across the southwestern Kansas vicinity.

...Mid Atlantic...
Destabilization within lee surface troughing may become sufficient
to support thunderstorm development with potential to produce strong
wind gusts and grow upscale Thursday afternoon into evening, aided
by forcing for ascent and modest strengthening of mid-level flow,
associated with a remnant short wave impulse emerging from the
Tennessee Valley.

...Southeastern Arizona...
Convection-allowing and related guidance suggests that thunderstorm
development is probable Thursday afternoon across parts of the
Mogollon Rim into higher terrain of southwestern New Mexico, and
perhaps southeastern Arizona, around the eastern periphery of a
weakening mid-level ridge. Aided by light northeasterly steering
flow off the mountains, into a hot and deeply mixed boundary layer
with at least weak CAPE, a few strong downbursts appear possible,
with potential for upscale growth on consolidating cold pools to
generate a broader strong to severe wind gust threat into Thursday evening.

..Kerr.. 07/08/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)

ACUS02 KWNS 100600
SWODY2
SPC AC 100558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARK
PLATEAU INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms capable of damaging winds will be possible from the
Ozark Plateau east into the Tennessee Valley. Surrounding this area,
strong to severe storms capable of sporadic occurrences of damaging
wind will be possible from the southern High Plains east toward to
the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Saturday afternoon and evening.
Isolated severe storms are also possible in southern Arizona.

... Synopsis ...

A strong midlevel ridge is expected to continue to build northward
across the West on Saturday. Downstream of this ridge, a
convectively augmented vorticity maximum is expected to be moving east-southeast across the Mid-Mississippi Valley and into the
Tennessee Valley. Farther east, a mid-level short-wave trough will
be moving across New England and out over the Atlantic Ocean.

At the surface, a weakening cold front will stretch from far
southern New England west into the central US at the start of the
period. This front will slowly move south during the day, across the
Mid Atlantic and into the Tennessee Valley and Southern Plains. As
the aforementioned convectively augmented vorticity maximum across
the central US interacts with the residual surface front, weak
cyclogenesis may occur across the Mid-Mississippi Valley.


... Ozark Plateau into the Tennessee Valley ...

By afternoon, temperatures are expected to warm into the mid-90Fs
with dewpoints ranging from the mid 60Fs into the low 70Fs. This
should yield an unstable environment, with MUCAPE values between
1500-3000 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop along the
surface boundary during the afternoon. Deep layer shear is generally
expected to be on the order of 20-25 knots across the area, which
should support multicell clusters growing upscale into southward
moving bowing segments capable of producing damaging winds. Given
precipitable water values around 2 inches and mean sub-cloud layer
relative humidity around 40-50 percent, there is some potential for
a couple of significant wind gusts associated with strong cold pool
generation.


... Central and Southern Plains ...

Similar to areas farther east, temperatures will warm into the
mid-to-upper 90Fs with dewpoints in the mid-60Fs to low-70Fs
yielding MUCAPE values in the 1500-3000 J/kg range. Thunderstorms
should develop during the late afternoon along the surface boundary.
High precipitable water values (generally around 1.75 to 2 inches),
DCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg, and sub-cloud layer mean
relative humidity between 30-40 percent will support the potential
for strong, damaging outflow winds -- some potentially significant.
A few occurrences of large hail will also be possible given the
degree of instability and modest mid-level lapse rates.

Confidence in the location of where the surface boundary will
initiate is lower than areas farther east, which yields lower
confidence in adding higher wind probabilities. A Level 2/Slight
Risk may be needed in later outlooks if confidence in the number and
location of storms increases.


... Mid-Atlantic into northern Florida ...

Convergence along the southward moving front and the preceding lee
trough should allow for scattered thunderstorm development during
the afternoon. Although vertical shear is expected to remain
generally less than 25 knots, a moderately unstable environment
coupled with high precipitable water values (around 2 inches) should
support strong to potentially damaging downbursts.


... Southern Arizona ...

East/northeast mid-level flow is forecast to strengthen slightly on
Saturday to the south of the upper high, resulting in a belt of
deep-layer shear on the order of 30 knots. A moist and unstable
airmass across southern Arizona will support scattered thunderstorm development. As these storms move west, the strengthening flow/shear
will support a few strong to briefly severe storms capable of
locally damaging wind gusts.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Capitol City Online (618:250/10)