ACUS03 KWNS 040733
SWODY3
SPC AC 040733

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0233 AM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL INTO EAST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across much of Central into East
Texas and western/central Louisiana. All severe hazards would be possible.

...Synopsis...
An ejecting shortwave trough will lift northeastward through Central
into Northeast Texas on Tuesday. Continued moisture advection
northward will bring upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints in
South/Central/Southeast Texas and parts of the lower Mississippi
Valley. Early period precipitation appears likely along a warm front
within the Red River region southeastward into Louisiana. Additional
early precipitation is possible within the Edwards Plateau into
Central Texas, but uncertainty is greater in this scenario. A
dryline is expected in central Texas during the afternoon.

...Central Texas into Sabine Valley...
The expectation of early day precipitation complicates the overall
forecast for the afternoon. Even so, a very moist and weakly capped
airmass is forecast to be in place south of the warm front and east
of the developing dryline. The ECMWF is more aggressive with the
early development of a cluster of storms/MCS. In this scenario,
convection would likely strengthen as surface heating occurs ahead
of it. The GFS/NAM show greater potential for the dryline to be a
focus for convection during the afternoon. Here, supercells capable
of all hazards would be possible. There is potential for significant
severe, with very large hail being the primary concern, but
uncertainty in the convective evolution keeps confidence too low to
highlight any particularly area.

...Red River into ArkLaTex...
Storms along the warm front will likely be ongoing early in the day
and continue to develop within the warm advection regime into the
afternoon. Strong shear and moderate buoyancy would promote a risk
for large hail and damaging winds. Numerous storms and their
interactions will tend to temper the overall severe threat. Many of
these storms will be at least slightly elevated north of the
boundary. Tornadoes could also occur with surface-based storms
within the warm front zone.

..Wendt.. 05/04/2025

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ACUS03 KWNS 130729
SWODY3
SPC AC 130728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MONTANA...THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN NEBRASKA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms, capable of isolated large hail and severe
wind gusts, are expected on Sunday from parts of southeast Montana southeastward into northern Nebraska. Elsewhere in the Great Plains,
marginally severe storms will be possible. A few severe wind gusts
may also occur from parts of North Carolina into southern Virginia.

...Northern Plains/Northern Nebraska...
A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain over the central and
northern High Plains on Sunday, as a subtle shortwave trough rides
up and over the ridge. At the surface, a low is forecast to develop
over Wyoming, with upslope flow remaining over much of the northern
Plains. A moist airmass will be located from eastern Montana into
the Dakotas and Nebraska, where moderate to strong instability is
forecast to develop by afternoon. As surface temperatures warm
during the day, convective initiation is expected in the higher
terrain of the northern High Plains, with additional storms possible
further east into parts of the Dakotas. NAM forecast soundings late
Sunday afternoon near the instability axis have MLCAPE peaking near
4000 J/kg with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. 0-6 km shear is
forecast to be in the 30 to 40 knot range. This environment should
support supercell development, with large hail and wind damage being
possible. A tornado could also occur. The severe threat will likely
persist into the evening, as low-level flow gradually increases
across the region.

...Southern Nebraska/Kansas/Oklahoma/North Texas...
A moist airmass will remain in place across much of the southern and
central Plains on Sunday. Surface dewpoints from the upper 60s to
the mid 70s F will contribute to the development of strong
instability across parts of this airmass by afternoon. In spite of a
lack of large-scale ascent, isolated convective initiation will be
possible as surface temperatures peak in the afternoon. The most
likely location for storm development would be along or near any
residual outflow boundary. Forecast MLCAPE in the 2500 to 3500 J/kg
range, along with steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and moderate
deep-layer shear would support an isolated severe threat. Hail and
marginally severe wind gusts would be the primary threats.

...North Carolina/Southern Virginia...
A mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move eastward across the
southern and central Appalachians on Sunday. Ahead of the trough, a
moist airmass is forecast over parts of the Carolinas and Virginia.
As surface temperatures warm in the late morning and early
afternoon, convective initiation is expected in the higher terrain
of the southern and central Appalachians. As this convection moves
eastward into the lower elevations, thunderstorms are expected to
form. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain relatively
weak, moderate instability and steep low-level lapse rates could be
sufficient for isolated severe wind gusts.

..Broyles.. 06/13/2025

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ACUS03 KWNS 170832
SWODY3
SPC AC 170831

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA...WESTERN/NORTHERN KENTUCKY...AND
SOUTHWESTERN OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with potential to produce a few tornadoes and
damaging wind gusts are possible across parts of the middle
Mississippi into lower Ohio Valleys Thursday afternoon into early evening.

...Discussion...
Considerable spread persists within latest model output concerning
short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North
America through this period. In general, though, guidance indicates
that larger-scale mid-level troughing will slowly begin to shift
inland of the Pacific coast Thursday through Thursday night, while
being maintained downstream across the Rockies, Great Plains and
Mississippi Valley, and slowly developing toward the lower Great
Lakes and Appalachians vicinity. The center of a subtropical high
is likely to shift from the Gulf Basin into the Bahamas/Caribbean,
with its northern periphery maintaining an influence across parts of
the Southeast.

One or two short wave perturbations emerging from the Intermountain
West may be in the process of progressing into and across the
central Great Plains and lower Missouri Valley vicinity at the
outset of the period. The lower amplitude lead perturbation may
continue into and across the Ohio Valley during the day, as the
stronger upstream perturbation pivots across the mid to lower
Missouri Valley toward the Great Lakes region. This appears a bit
to the north, and at somewhat lower amplitudes, than what prior runs
of at least some model output has been indicating. However, this is
still likely to be accompanied by a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone,
which may undergo one or two periods of additional deepening while
migrating northeast of the lower Missouri Valley toward the Great
Lakes region Thursday through Thursday night.

...Middle Mississippi/Lower Ohio Valley...
Latest model output continues to indicate better low-level moisture
return (but still marginal for severe convective development) to
portions of the warm sector of the developing cyclone as it migrates
across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley Thursday
afternoon. It appears that this may include a corridor of mid 50s
to near 60F surface dew points advecting northeast and east of the
confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. However, it now
appears that much of this moistening may occur beneath relatively
warm mid/upper levels, associated with subsidence to the south of
the upper jet axis.

This is not reflected in the latest RRFS forecast soundings, which
indicate rather potent thermodynamic profiles evolving by Thursday
afternoon across the lower Ohio Valley vicinity, in terms of both
conditional and convective instability. A general consensus of
other model output suggests the development of much more modest
CAPE. This includes NAM forecast soundings, which depict CAPE at or
below 500 J/kg where the low-level moistening occurs, mostly due to
low equilibrium levels below the 500 mb level. It remains unclear
if this environment will become supportive of convection capable of
producing lightning.

Even so, NAM forecast soundings still depict boundary-layer based
CAPE supportive of low-topped convection which could acquire
supercellular structure in the presence of strong cloud bearing
shear. Aided by the evolution of sizable clockwise-curved low-level
hodographs beneath 30-50 kt southerly 850 mb flow, and a relatively
moist boundary-layer with steep lapse rates, a few tornadoes appear
possible, in addition to small to marginally severe hail. The
evolution of a small organizing cluster may still not be out of the
question, which probably would be accompanied by better potential
for damaging surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 02/17/2026

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