ACUS01 KWNS 061250
SWODY1
SPC AC 061248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 AM CDT Mon Apr 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across the
Florida Peninsula, and portions of the Four Corners, northern
Rockies, and eastern Great Lakes. While a few strong storms may
occur across the central/southern Florida Peninsula, organized
severe potential is expected to remain low.

...Synopsis...
The East will remain influenced by longwave troughing, while
westerly quasi-zonal upper flow prevails elsewhere. Much of the
northern, central, and eastern CONUS will be dominated by surface
high pressure while surface lee troughing, with dry low-level
trajectories, takes place over the southern High Plains.
Thunderstorms are expected mainly this afternoon across the Florida
Peninsula. A few embedded mid-level impulses, accompanied by cooler temperatures aloft, will foster enough lift amid scant buoyancy to
encourage a few lightning flashes across the northern Rockies, Four
Corners region, and the eastern Great Lakes today.

...Central/southern Florida Peninsula...

Ample insolation/heating should occur today along and south of the slow-southward progressing front. This heating combined with
easterly low-level winds should focus convergence and scattered
thunderstorm development this afternoon across the interior
peninsula. With the upstream shortwave trough not influencing the
region until later tonight, mid-level lapse rates will remain
relatively poor with weak deep-layer shear. Regardless, steepening
low-level lapse rates should lead to increasing storm coverage and
intensity this afternoon, particularly across the interior, and a
few of these pulse-type storms could produce strong
downburst-related gusty winds. However, it currently appears that severe-caliber wind gust potential will remain limited given the
marginality of the overall scenario.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/06/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 071235
SWODY1
SPC AC 071234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Tue Apr 07 2026

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected today across parts
of the Florida Peninsula, the southern Rockies, and northern High
Plains. Severe thunderstorm potential is currently expected to remain low.

...Synopsis...
Split/nearly zonal upper-level flow will prevail across most of the
CONUS to the south of an amplifying trough from the Canadian Rockies southeastward toward the northern High Plains, and in the wake of
low-amplitude troughs crossing both New England and Florida today.

...Florida Peninsula...

Scattered thunderstorms should increase across the Florida Peninsula
into the afternoon, influenced by the passing mid-level trough and
sea-breeze convergence in the presence of a very moist airmass. A
few of the storms across the southern Florida Peninsula could
produce locally strong thunderstorm winds, but severe potential
should remain relatively low.

...Northern High Plains...

Isolated high-based storms are expected across the northern High
Plains, including eastern Montana into western North Dakota, aided
by the approach of the aforementioned upper trough. Storms will
develop atop a relatively dry/well-mixed boundary layer, but with
very limited buoyancy overall. Given the dry boundary layer and
strengthening mid-tropospheric winds, strong and gusty winds may
accompany this convection during the late afternoon until around
sunset.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/07/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 081247
SWODY1
SPC AC 081245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2026

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop across western and central
Kansas late this afternoon and early evening, with hail and locally
severe wind gusts possible.

...Western/central Kansas...

The region will be glancingly influenced by an eastward-progressing
upper trough over the northern Plains. Ample insolation and robust
heating of a boundary layer, characterized by limited moisture (40s
F dewpoints), will result in convective temperatures being reached
by peak heating near a southeastward-moving front. Isolated to
widely scattered convective initiation is expected around or after
20Z, when 30+ F T/Td spreads will be in place. High-based multicells
will be the likely storm mode, as strong northwesterly flow aloft
will contribute to elongated, straight hodographs. The strongest
storms may produce hail and severe wind gusts on an isolated basis.

...Southern Florida...

A couple of stronger storms with gusty winds could again occur
today, mainly across the southeast part of the Florida Peninsula
this afternoon. Any severe threat should remain relatively marginal
and localized given the overall setup and thermodynamic environment.

..Guyer/Weinman.. 04/08/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 101237
SWODY1
SPC AC 101236

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0736 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS/OZARKS AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA/GREAT BASIN...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated large hail and severe gusts are possible
this afternoon and evening across parts of the south-central Plains
to the Ozarks. Strong to locally severe storms may also occur from western/northern Nevada into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho,
and also across parts of north-central California.

...South-central Plains/Ozarks...

Scattered rain and generally weak thunderstorms will continue to
accompany and reinforce a southward-shifting front, with the
boundary stalling today, before starting to shift back northward
late tonight. Weakening flow aloft will occur today in the presence
of a building upper ridge and corresponding height rises. As
outflows dissipate, ample heating/mixing is expected later today to
the south of the front, where MLCAPE values may exceed 1500 J/kg
across Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.

Even with modest overall forcing for ascent, scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop by late afternoon in the vicinity of the
boundary across parts of far southern Kansas/northern Oklahoma into
the Ozarks, with additional development possible near the front, and
also within a post-frontal regime across the south-central High
Plains vicinity.

With rather modest large-scale ascent and weak deep-layer flow
across the region, storm organization and duration may generally
remain somewhat limited. However, more organized cells may briefly
develop on an isolated basis more immediately near the boundary,
where some enhancement to effective shear/SRH will be possible.
Isolated large hail appears to be the most likely hazard, although
localized strong/damaging wind gusts could also occur.

...Nevada/southeast OR/southwest ID and north-central CA...

A closed upper low off the coast of northern California will open
and become more progressive, reaching the Sierra and parts of the
Great Basin tonight. Related forcing for ascent and moisture will
influence scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon across
parts of central/northern California into the northern Great Basin
and interior Northwest. Cold temperatures aloft and rather strong
diurnal heating will result in steep low/mid-level lapse rates and
MUCAPE increasing to near/above 500 J/kg.

Mid-level flow and deep-layer shear will gradually increase over
time, with the most favorable overlap of vertical shear and
instability expected across western/northern Nevada into southeast
Oregon and southwest Idaho. Semi-organized cells/clusters, and
perhaps even a few supercells, may develop with an attendant threat
of hail and localized severe wind gusts.

A few locally severe storms may also develop across parts of the
Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys in California this
afternoon. While deep-layer shear will be somewhat weaker as
compared to the northern Great Basin, cold temperatures aloft
(near/below -20C at 500 mb) may support marginally severe hail with
the strongest storms. The steep lapse rate environment and local
terrain influences could also support transient cell rotation and
possibly funnels, or even a brief tornado, although this potential
currently seems low/uncertain.

..Guyer/Broyles.. 04/10/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 220555
SWODY1
SPC AC 220554

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE HIGH PLAINS AND FROM NORTHEAST INDIANA INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with hail and isolated severe gusts will be
possible across parts of the High Plains this afternoon and evening.
Isolated severe gusts and hail will also be possible in parts of
northeast Indiana and Ohio.

...High Plains...

At mid-levels today, heights will fall across much of the High
Plains, as a ridge moves toward the Mississippi Valley and a trough
moves through the Intermountain West. In response, a lee trough will
sharpen across the High Plains. To the east of the surface trough,
moisture advection will take place. Surface dewpoints will increase
into the 55 to 60 F range to the east of a well-developed dryline
extending from west Texas northward into southwest Nebraska.
Although large-scale ascent will be weak along the dryline,
low-level convergence will aid isolated convective initiation during
the mid to late afternoon. The most favorable location for storm
development will be from northwest Kansas into west-central Nebraska
and southern South Dakota, as the low-level jet strengthens in the
late afternoon and early evening. In addition to moderate
instability, 0-6 km shear is forecast to increase into the 35 to 40
knot range by early evening. This, combined with 700-500 mb lapse
rates in the 8.5 to 9 C/km range should be favorable for supercells
with isolated large hail, with the greatest potential from northwest
Kansas into west-central Nebraska. A few severe wind gusts may also
occur from western Kansas into South Dakota.

Further south into west Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle, the lift
supportive of convective development will be confined to weak
low-level convergence along the dryline. If a storm can initiate,
then a supercell could develop with potential for large hail.

...Northeast Indiana/Central and Northern Ohio...

A mid-level ridge will move into the upper Mississippi Valley today,
as northwesterly mid-level flow persists over the Great Lakes
region. At the surface, a slow-moving front will remain in place
from southern Wisconsin eastward into southern Michigan. Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon along and to the south of
the front as surface temperatures warm and low-level convergence
increases. Model forecasts in the mid to late afternoon from
northeast Indiana into central and northern Ohio have MLCAPE in the
2000 to 2500 J/kg range, with 0-3 km lapse rates near 8.5 C/km. In
addition, 0-6 km shear is forecast to approach 30 knots, which could
be enough for a marginal severe threat. Isolated severe gusts and
hail will be possible with the stronger multicells in areas that
destabilize the most.

..Broyles/Chalmers.. 04/22/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 011233
SWODY1
SPC AC 011231

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Fri May 01 2026

Valid 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
HILL COUNTRY INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible today across parts of south-central and southeast Texas,
and this evening into tonight along the central Gulf Coast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
Early morning satellite imagery shows several shortwave troughs,
including one within the southern stream over northern Mexico and
another moving into Ohio Valley within the base of a large cyclone
centered over the northern Ontario/Quebec border vicinity. Recent
surface analysis places a weak front from Deep South Texas
northeastward through the western Gulf and central Plaquemines
Parish, continuing through the north-central Gulf and across
northern Florida. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are currently
ongoing north of the front and downstream of the northern Mexico
shortwave from the Texas Hill County eastward to the Upper Texas Coast.

Thermodynamic conditions across these region are expected to remain
largely unchanged throughout much of the day, with modest elevated
instability persisting amid the moist southwesterly mid-level flow.
Some modest increase in the mid-level flow is anticipated as the
shortwave trough continues eastward through TX and into the Lower
Mississippi Valley. An attendant increase in large-scale ascent is
expected as well. Resulting increase in the deep-layer shear could
result in slightly more organized storm structures and greater
overall storm intensity this afternoon despite numerous preceding
showers and thunderstorms, and little change in the overall
thermodynamics. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks
with the strongest storms.

A surface low is expected to develop ahead of the shortwave trough
over the western Gulf, before then tracking quickly northeastward as
the shortwave continues eastward. This low will likely be just off
the Deep South Texas Coast by 00Z Saturday, and off of southern
Plaquemines Parish by 06Z. Elevated thunderstorms are expected
across the Lower MS Valley amid a combination of warm-air advection
and large-scale ascent ahead of the shortwave. The strongest storms
may be capable of producing small hail. The surface low may also
track far enough north for the warm sector to advect into the
near-coastal regions of southeast Louisiana, far southern
Mississippi, southern Alabama and the western/central Florida
Panhandle. If this occurs, surface-based storms could develop,
enhancing the potential for damaging gusts as well as introducing a low-probability tornado risk.

..Mosier/Dean.. 05/01/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 030538
SWODY1
SPC AC 030536

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Sun May 03 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of
northern/central Missouri and central Illinois on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A short-wave trough with a belt of enhanced northwesterly flow
within the broader eastern US trough will overspread the Missouri
Valley through this evening. A weak cold front will extend across
portions of the central Plains into the Missouri Valley. This
boundary will be the focus for potential isolated thunderstorm
development as the short-wave moves in across the region by the evening.

...Northern/central Missouri into central Illinois...

Moisture quality continues to be a question within the Marginal Risk
area as previously stated in prior outlooks. Surface observations
show 50s dew points have made it as far north as the Red River in
southern Oklahoma as of late Saturday evening. There remains some
question just how far north (or deep) this moisture will be by late
afternoon across Missouri/Illinois. Most 00z guidance suggests that
50 F dew points will steadily spread into Missouri through the day
today. However, afternoon sounding profiles suggest this moisture to
be thin and potentially subject to mixing. Through the afternoon,
weak convergence along the front and a mid-level capping inversion
will likely prohibit convective development. As the short-wave
ascent arrives in the evening, 00z HREF guidance suggest that at
least isolated thunderstorms may develop (as seen in ensemble paint
balls >40z dBZ and in calibrated thunder chances around 40-50%).
Temperatures aloft will be rather cold (around -20 C at 500 mb).
Even upper 40s F dewpoints will result in around 1000 to perhaps
1500 J/kg MLCAPE by late afternoon/early evening. Given steepening
lapse rate profiles and cold temperatures aloft, potential for a few
instances of severe hail and strong to severe winds will be possible.

...Northern California/southwest Oregon...

Convection is possible during the afternoon as mid-level
temperatures cool in close proximity to the upper low off the coast.
Filtered surface heating could allow for a few stronger storms to
develop. Small hail and gusty winds are possible. Anvil-level flow
will be quite weak which will likely lead to storms that are only
strong briefly. The overall severe potential appears low.

..Thornton/Lyons.. 05/03/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 111215
SWODY1
SPC AC 111213

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms with locally damaging wind gusts and hail are
possible Monday afternoon from the coastal Carolinas into the
Florida Peninsula, and along the central Gulf Coast.

...Carolinas...

A large upper trough is present today over the eastern states, with
a weak cold front sagging southward across the Carolinas. Ample
low-level moisture is present to the south of the front from central
SC into southeast NC, with dewpoints in the mid 60s. Pockets of
daytime heating will destabilize this region, with the potential for
isolated thunderstorm development by early afternoon. Low-level
winds are veered and relatively weak, limiting frontal convergence
and shear. A few strong storms may occur with locally gusty winds
and hail. But the overall threat appears marginal.

...Eastern FL...

Warm/moist conditions are expected today over the FL Peninsula with temperatures over the interior warming into the 90s. Deep westerly
flow will focus convergence along the east-coast sea-breeze, leading
to scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Sufficient deep-layer
vertical shear may result in isolated strong-severe storms producing gusty/damaging winds and hail.

...Coastal LA/MS/AL...

A convectively-aided shortwave trough over east TX will continue to
track eastward across the central Gulf Coast region today. The
combination of daytime heating and dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s
will yield moderate CAPE values, leading to relatively widespread
afternoon thunderstorms from southeast LA into southern MS/AL.
Low-level winds are weak and lapse rates are rather weak.
Nevertheless, cooler temperatures aloft and degree of instability
will support a risk of occasionally intense cells capable of
damaging winds and hail.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/11/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 121200
SWODY1
SPC AC 121159

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0659 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
FLORIDA...AND FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO KANSAS....

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms will be possible at least on an isolated basis across
parts of the Florida Peninsula today, and potentially from southeast
Kansas into parts of the Great Lakes late this afternoon and early evening.

...KS to WI...

A progressive shortwave trough is evident on morning water vapor
imagery over MN. This feature will track across the Great Lakes
region through the forecast period, with the associated surface cold
front sagging into parts of the upper MS Valley. The air mass ahead
of the front from WI into IL/MO/KS is initially quite dry with
dewpoints only in the 30s/40s. However, strong southwesterly
low-level winds will lead to slow moistening/destabilization of the
pre-frontal air mass with a narrow corridor of MUCAPE around 500
J/kg expected by late afternoon. Thunderstorm coverage will likely
be sparse and high-based. However, a few strong/severe storms may
form - capable of hail and gusty winds into early evening.

...FL...

A moist and moderately unstable air mass remains in place over the
FL Peninsula today. A well-defined shortwave trough over southern
AL will track eastward today, resulting in sufficient large scale
forcing for scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Low-level winds are
veered, suggesting the most intense cells will be in vicinity of the
east-coast sea-breeze. A few organized multicell or supercell
storms are possible, posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and hail.

..Hart/Wendt.. 05/12/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 231251
SWODY1
SPC AC 231250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
GULF COAST...GEORGIA INTO SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ACROSS OHIO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today across the lower
Mississippi Valley and into parts of Texas. Other isolated severe
storms are possible in portions of the Southeast, Ohio, and the
central High Plains.

...Southern High Plains...

Weak mid-level flow and an ill-defined surface pattern aptly
characterize the severe-potential setup for later today into the
evening across this region. Residual low-level moisture and steep
700-500 mb lapse rates (reference the 12 UTC Midland, TX raob; 8.7
deg C/km) in combination with strong heating will result in moderate instability developing by mid-late afternoon. Scattered
thunderstorms are forecast to develop from near the CO/OK-TX
Panhandles border region southward into the Edwards Plateau.
Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be the primary severe
hazards with the stronger storms. Some clustering is expected
during the evening before this activity diminishes by late evening.

...South-central and Southeast Texas/Southern Louisiana...

In the coastal areas of the western and central Gulf, very moist air
will be in place. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s F will
contribute to moderate instability by midday. Thunderstorms will
form along sea breeze boundaries during the early to mid afternoon.
A few severe wind gusts and a brief tornado will be possible.
Farther north over the Ark-La-Miss, some heating ahead of a
north-south band of showers/thunderstorms associated with an MCV
over OK, will contribute to a marginally supportive wind-damage
risk. Have expanded low-wind probabilities to account for
observational trends of a semi-organized band of storms continuing
east into the Ark-La-Miss during peak heating.

...Georgia/South Carolina...

A weak mid-level disturbance over MS/AL this morning will move east-northeastward today. Adequate heating of a moist boundary
layer will yield 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE by early afternoon and
scattered showers/thunderstorms are forecast. Deep-layer shear will
support some multicellular organization in the form of a few
thunderstorm clusters. The stronger water-loaded downdrafts will
potentially yield a localized wind-damage risk during the afternoon
before this threat wanes by early evening.

...Central High Plains...

Latest model guidance shows isolated thunderstorms developing late
this afternoon within a belt of stronger cyclonic mid-level flow
associated with a north-central U.S. larger-scale mid-level trough.
The 30-40 kt 500-mb flow and steepened surface to 400-mb lapse rates
may support a couple of locally stronger thunderstorms to develop
towards early evening. Locally severe hail/wind will be the threat
with these storms.

...Ohio...

Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place over the Ohio Valley
and lower Great Lakes today. At the surface, an axis of low-level
moisture will be located from eastern Kentucky into central and
northern Ohio, where dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 60s F. As instability increases during the day, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to develop and move northeastward across the instability
corridor. RAP forecast soundings in central Ohio at 21Z have 0-6 km
shear near 30 knots with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity around 150
m2/s2. This could be enough for an isolated tornado threat.

..Smith/Weinman.. 05/23/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: Project Scorpio TEST (618:250/6)

ACUS01 KWNS 171232
SWODY1
SPC AC 171231

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS...UPPER GREAT LAKES...AND OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe storms are possible today across parts
of western Montana and northern Idaho, and also across parts of the
Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes. More isolated strong to
severe storms with damaging gusts are possible over parts of the
Ohio Valley into parts of the Southeast.

...Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains...
To the east of an upper low near the WA/Vancouver vicinity, an upper
ridge with a plume of monsoonal moisture will extend northward from
the Great Basin into the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains.
Orographic lift and heating will promote the development of
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Steepened low-level lapse
rates will potentially yield storms capable of isolated severe gusts
beginning this afternoon and continuing into the mid-late evening.
Isolated large hail may occur with the stronger thunderstorm cores,
especially over northwest MT where 0-6 km shear will be 25-35 kt.

...Upper Midwest and northern Great Lakes...
A cluster of weak thunderstorms over the MN Arrowhead will likely
move southeast this morning ahead of an amplifying upper trough
forecast to move from northern SK to the Upper Peninsula of MI
during the period. A cold front associated with the upper wave will
push southeastward across the Upper Midwest and provide a focus for thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening.

A warm frontal zone draped across the northern Great Lakes will
advance northeastward as a low over western ON moves eastward into
central ON by early evening. Forecast model guidance shows moderate
buoyancy developing today within a belt of 25-40 kt
west-northwesterly 500-mb flow. As a result, a few of the stronger thunderstorms will probably evolve into supercells and organized
multicell clusters. Isolated large hail and damaging gusts are the
primary hazards, although a brief tornado risk may also develop in
the areas surrounding Lake Superior. One or more clusters of strong
to severe storms may persist into the overnight along the warm
front. However, confidence in this scenario is lower owing to the
prior convection and uncertainties of diurnal development along the
cold front. Still, a strengthening wind field and ample moisture
could support a risk for damaging winds into northern Lower MI
overnight.

...OH Valley to the southern Appalachians and FL...
A moist and diurnally destabilizing airmass will support scattered
to numerous storms developing by the mid afternoon. Some of the
stronger water-loaded downdrafts will potentially be capable of
50-60 mph gusts and isolated wind damage.

...West-central TX...
A weak mid- to upper-level low over west TX will move little during
the day while a warm/moist conveyor persists across southern into
central parts of TX. An ongoing thunderstorm cluster will likely
continue across the Concho Valley aided in part by a convectively
augmented zone of low-level warm-air advection. Despite very moist
low levels and some enlargement of the low-level hodograph per KSJT
and KDFX VAD data, weak flow in the mid levels will likely promote
enough convective outflow to limit storm organization (i.e.,
transient storm-scale cyclonic shear) and favor a heavy rain threat.

..Smith.. 07/17/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 021252
SWODY1
SPC AC 021250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sun Aug 02 2026

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EAST
AS WELL AS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to locally severe thunderstorm development is
expected this afternoon and evening across parts of the lower Great
Lakes and upper Ohio Valley into the middle and southern Atlantic
Piedmont. Damaging winds are the primary hazard, although a tornado
could occur.

...Eastern States...
The large-scale positive-tilt upper trough will continue to drift
eastward regionally, with the leading edge of height falls generally
parallel to the Appalachians. Ahead of a cold front, early day cloud
cover, precipitation, and otherwise generally weak
lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates will be factors that tend to
limit overall boundary-layer destabilization.

Breaks in cloud cover into this afternoon will eventually allow for
widely scattered to scattered intensifying thunderstorm development
into mid/late afternoon. This may focus within a pre-cold frontal
corridor across the Allegheny Plateau/upper Ohio Valley into lower
Great Lakes vicinity, where it could be enhanced by 20-40 kt south-southwesterly flow in the 850-500 mb layer, and within
somewhat more modest flow off the higher terrain in vicinity of the
lee troughing across the Piedmont.

With at least modest CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg, and potential for
heavy precipitation loading in the presence of seasonably high
moisture content, localized strong downbursts may generate a few
damaging surface gusts. A brief tornado threat may also exist across
parts of upper Ohio Valley toward the Mid-Atlantic given sufficient
low-level shear/SRH in the presence of a moist boundary layer.

...North Dakota/northwest Minnesota...
The extent and likelihood of sustained deep convective development
remain uncertain. Some guidance has suggested that there may be at
least attempts at deep convective development late this afternoon
near the weak pre-cold frontal surface troughing. However, the
potential for sustained thunderstorm activity remains unclear due to
limited low-level moisture beneath very warm and dry mid-levels,
associated with an elevated mixed-layer overspreading the region
today. A somewhat better potential for thunderstorm development may
await increasing forcing for ascent with the approach of the
upstream shortwave trough later tonight. In either case, some risk
for hail and severe winds will exist pending development across the region.

...Southeast Arizona/far southwest New Mexico...
Residual cloud cover and widely scattered convection should clear
relatively early today, with renewed diurnal destabilization across
southeast Arizona and nearby southwest New Mexico. At least widely
scattered thunderstorms should develop over the mountains/higher
terrain of the Arizona/New Mexico border vicinity, with
southwestward storm persistence across southeast Arizona aided by
moderately strong northeasterly winds. A few instances of
severe-caliber wind gusts/blowing dust are possible this afternoon
through early evening.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 08/02/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 051247
SWODY1
SPC AC 051245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today across the mid
Mississippi Valley. Isolated severe gusts may also occur in parts
of the southern High Plains, and in southeastern Arizona.

...Mid Mississippi Valley...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a broad upper trough over the north-central U.S. with a couple of embedded disturbances. A
leading weak impulse appears associated with a small cluster of
strong to locally severe activity early this morning across the
IA-MO border vicinity, near and immediately north of a stationary
front. These showers/thunderstorms will likely continue east of the
MS River but it remains unclear whether these storms maintain a
localized risk for severe before gradually weakening. Later today,
ascent associated with an upstream disturbance moving through the
base of the larger-scale trough over NE into IA, will favor
additional storm development as the boundary layer heats south of
the frontal zone. Moderate buoyancy is forecast by guidance and
sufficient deep-layer shear will support some potential storm
organization. The stronger storms may yield an episodic severe risk
before gradually diminishing during the evening.

...Southeastern Arizona...
A seasonably moist airmass sampled this morning by surface
observations (lower 60s F dewpoints) will undergo strong heating
through late afternoon. Orographic lifting will favor convection
developing over the higher terrain and gradually
spreading/developing into the lower deserts during the early
evening. Very steep low to mid-level lapse rates will contribute
towards a risk for strong downdrafts capable of a microburst threat
(60-80 mph). Considered a Slight-Risk based on potentially
scattered storm coverage moving into the lower deserts, but
sufficient model run-to-run (time-lagged HRRR) variability and model
ensemble spread (i.e., 00z HREF vs. REFS) preclude a wind-driven
upgrade at this time.

...Southern High Plains...
Weak but adequately moist, post-frontal upslope flow into the Raton
Mesa vicinity will favor widely scattered diurnal storm development
by mid-late afternoon. Modest west-northwesterly mid-level flow
will favor storms and their incipient outflow to the east-southeast
into the adjacent High Plains. Given the steep lapse rates and
relatively dry sub-cloud layer, evaporative cooling will probably
result in a few storms being capable of localized severe gusts
(60-80 mph).

..Smith/Bentley.. 08/05/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 281232
SWODY1
SPC AC 281231

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0731 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES...NORTH GA INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
MID-ATLANTIC...AND PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ME......

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible across the central and
northern Plains, northern Georgia into the Carolinas and
Mid-Atlantic, central and eastern Maine, and from parts of the Great
Basin and Desert Southwest into the northern Rockies.

...Maine...
A shortwave trough is evident this morning over the St Lawrence
Valley. This trough will track eastward across northern New
England, with an associated cold front moving through ME. Models
are consistent in the depiction of scattered thunderstorm
development along the front by mid-late afternoon. Forecast
soundings show sufficient CAPE and deep layer shear to promote a few
organized or potentially supercell storms capable of locally
damaging wind gusts and hail.

...GA to Mid-Atlantic Region...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will be present today over much of the
eastern states, with a diffuse surface cold front extending from VA
into GA. Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to form along
the front this afternoon, with slow-moving but strong storms
possible. Moderate CAPE, rather high PWAT values, and limited
deep-layer shear will promote isolated strong storms capable of
water-loaded downbursts.

...Great Basin into WY...
The upper ridge will remain centered over NM, while a 50+ knot
mid-level jet rotates eastward from NV into ID/UT/WY. Scattered
high-based showers and storms are expected over a large part of the
Great Basin into WY, with the strongest cells capable of damaging
wind gusts.

...Dakotas...
As the high-based convection over WY spreads eastward into western
ND/SD, it will encounter greater low-level moisture and CAPE, likely
resulting in some intensification. A few bowing structures are
possible in this area this evening, capable of locally damaging wind
gusts and hail. This complex of storms may persist after midnight
with a continued risk of gusty/damaging winds.

..Hart/Kerr.. 08/28/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 311242
SWODY1
SPC AC 311240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Valid 311300Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND THE GREAT BASIN....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms will be possible mainly later this afternoon
into tonight across the Upper Midwest/upper Great Lakes, the central
Plains, and across the lower Colorado River Valley and Great Basin.

...Great Lakes Region...
Water vapor imagery shows a subtle shortwave trough moving across
NE. This feature is forecast to track northeastward through the day
and affect the Great Lakes region by late afternoon. Relatively
strong heating is expected across much of WI, along with dewpoints
in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This along with moderately steep
mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values over 2500
J/kg. A cold front will sag into the region by early evening,
providing the focus for widely scattered thunderstorms from central
WI into upper MI. This activity will track east-southeastward
across WI and into lower MI. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient
vertical shear to support rotating storms capable of locally
gusty/damaging winds and perhaps some hail.

...Eastern CO into NE...
A persistent plume of mid-level moisture continues to affect areas
from AZ into CO, with another round of afternoon thunderstorms
expected over the mountains. As these storms spread eastward into
eastern CO, strong outflow winds may accompany the more intense
cores. Isolated strong storms may persist into parts of northwest
KS and much of NE after dark.

...UT/AZ...
A shortwave trough over CA will track eastward and provide
large-scale forcing for ascent today over parts of AZ/UT. This will
result in scattered thunderstorms once again this afternoon across
much of UT and northern AZ. If pockets of sufficient heating can
develop, locally damaging wind gusts could occur.

..Hart/Broyles.. 08/31/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 101245
SWODY1
SPC AC 101244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic damaging wind gusts appear possible from the southern
Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast this afternoon and
evening. Isolated occurrences of large hail may occur over portions
of south-central Colorado into northeast New Mexico and perhaps
portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon and
evening.

...Southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic coast...
Recent surface analysis places the primary cold front from the St.
Lawrence Valley west-southwestward through Lower MI, northern IL,
and southern IA. The front then shifts more southwestward through
central KS through the central OK and northwest TX Panhandles into
far northeast NM. A broad area of showers and thunderstorms extends
from southwest KS and the eastern TX/OK Panhandles through the Lower
MO Valley and into the middle OH Valley. Much of this activity
precedes the cold front and is supported by either modest low-level
warm-air advection and/or convergence along
southward/southeastward-progressing outflows.

Strong heating is anticipated south of residual cloudiness and
lingering showers/thunderstorms, with temperatures well into the 90s
to around 100 F over the southern Plains into the lower MS Valley,
and upper 80s to mid 90s from the TN Valley to Mid-Atlantic. This
heating coupled with dewpoints in the 60s to low/mid 70s will yield
a moderately unstable air mass by afternoon with MLCAPE ranging from
1000 J/kg across the Mid-Atlantic vicinity to 2000-2500 J/kg across
the southern Plains. This increased buoyancy coupled with
convergence along the synoptic front (and any existing outflow
boundaries) and modest large-scale ascent should result in
thunderstorm activity persisting throughout the afternoon and
evening. Some increase in intensity is possible too, particularly
from north-central TX in the Mid-South vicinity where buoyancy will
be highest. The presence of a relatively deep, well-mixed boundary
layer will be supportive of sporadic damaging winds with isolated
severe gusts in these areas. Buoyancy will be more limited farther
east, but vertical shear will be stronger, and some more organized
bowing segments are possible. Damaging gusts will be the primary
severe risk over this region as well.

...Raton Mesa Vicinity...
Upslope flow of a moist boundary layer beneath mid-level lapse rates
of 7-8 C/km will yield moderate afternoon instability with MLCAPE of
1000-1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm
development is anticipated by mid afternoon along the high terrain
amidst a vertically veering wind profile with up to 30-35 kt of
deep-layer shear. A few stronger storms are possible in this
environment, with isolated hail as the primary hazard. Increasing
low-level stability away from the terrain should keep the threat
relatively confined and short lived.

..Mosier/Lyons.. 09/10/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 120525
SWODY1
SPC AC 120524

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARK PLATEAU...AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered severe storms capable of large hail up to two
inches and damaging wind gusts appear possible over portions of the
central and southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau on Saturday into
Saturday night. Isolated occurrences of damaging wind gusts may also
occur over portions of the upper Ohio Valley Saturday afternoon.

...Synopsis...

A belt of enhanced mid/upper-level flow will persist over the
north-central U.S., downstream from a vigorous upper low moving into
the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, a lower-latitude trough over the
lower OH and lower MS Valleys Saturday morning is forecast to weaken
while progressing through the OH and TN Valleys. At the surface, a
cold front will advance through the upper Great Lakes with the
trailing extension of the boundary pushing south through the lower
MO Valley and central Plains before linking with a surface low over
the southern High Plains.


...Central and Southern Plains into the Ozark Plateau...

Persistent capping across the pre-frontal warm sector and generally
weak forcing for ascent lead to considerable uncertainty in
thunderstorm evolution through the forecast period. A number of the
00Z models (both convection-allowing and parameterized) indicate
areas of thunderstorms ongoing at 12Z Saturday over the central
Plains within a zone of modest warm advection and moisture transport
associated with a weakening low-level jet. One possible scenario is
for the continued southeast movement of the early-day storms through
eastern KS and southwest MO into portions of OK and AR by afternoon,
where a hot and moderate to strongly unstable air mass (i.e., MLCAPE
up to 2000-3000 J/kg) is forecast to develop. The instability
combined with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear would support
organized cold pool development in that scenario with an associated
risk for damaging wind gusts and large hail.

Renewed storm development appears possible from late morning into
afternoon from north of the front in south-central and southeast NE
to along or ahead of the front in northeast KS. Up to 40 kt of
deep-layer shear will coincide with the northern extension of the
stronger instability mentioned above to support supercell storm
modes with an associated risk for large hail up to two inches and
damaging wind gusts.

A separate thunderstorm regime may also evolve by mid to late
afternoon over the eastern OK and TX Panhandles into western OK in
the vicinity of the surface low and southward-sagging front.
Forecast soundings indicate a deep, well-mixed boundary layer, which
will be supportive of a few severe wind gusts and isolated large
hail.

Confidence in any of the above scenarios/regimes remains too low to
include Slight Risk wind and hail probabilities with this forecast.
A categorical upgrade is possible in subsequent Day 1 outlooks once
finer-scale details become more clear.


...Upper Ohio Valley...

A spatially narrow corridor of stronger heating and resultant
instability (MLCAPE up to 1500-2000 J/kg) is forecast to develop
during the afternoon between denser clouds and precipitation to the
west, and a backdoor front/stationary boundary to the east.
Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon within the instability axis, aided by
increased forcing for ascent associated with the approaching
mid-level trough. While mid-level lapse rates are expected to remain
relatively weak, deep-layer shear increasing to 30-35 kt coupled
with steepening low-level lapse rates suggests the potential for
some storm organization with the primary hazard being damaging wind
gusts. Backed low-level winds in the vicinity of the surface front
will boost low-level shear slightly and a brief tornado cannot be
ruled out as mature storms approach the frontal zone from the west.

..Mead/Halbert.. 09/12/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 131246
SWODY1
SPC AC 131244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE NORTHEAST...AND THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts
of the upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast this afternoon and
evening. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may also occur
across parts of the central and northern High Plains.

...Ohio Valley into the Northeast...
Within large-scale upper troughing over eastern Canada, a strong west-southwesterly mid-level jet will overspread the Great Lakes
into the OH Valley and Northeast by this evening. A surface cold
front will likewise track eastward across these regions through the
period. While a seasonably moist low-level airmass will be in place
ahead of the cold front, poor lapse rates aloft (around 6-6.5 C/km)
and cloud cover should limit the degree of destabilization that can
occur this afternoon. Still, even with the thermodynamic environment
remaining marginal, strengthening mid-level flow through the day
will support 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear and the potential for
organized convection.

Current expectations are for isolated to scattered thunderstorms to
develop along/ahead of the front by mid afternoon (around 19-22Z)
from parts of OH into western NY, and then spread quickly eastward
across the upper OH Valley into the Northeast. The deep-layer shear
will be strong enough for supercells initially, with perhaps a marginal/isolated hail threat even with the poor lapse rates present
aloft. But, clusters/bowing segments with an isolated damaging wind
threat should quickly develop given the linear forcing of the front.
This convection is forecast to weaken with eastward extent this
evening with the onset of nocturnal cooling, and as it encounters a
less unstable airmass. Confidence in a corridor of greater damaging
wind potential remains too low for higher severe wind probabilities
at this time.

...Central/Northern High Plains into the Mid Missouri Valley...
A closed mid/upper-level low over the Pacific Northwest this morning
will move eastward to the northern Rockies/High Plains through the
period. Diurnal destabilization will generally be limited ahead of
this low, though a narrow zone of weak instability may develop by
late afternoon from northeast CO into southeast WY and the NE
Panhandle in a modest low-level upslope flow regime. Isolated
thunderstorm development appears possible across this area, with
sufficient deep-layer shear for transient updraft organization and
isolated severe hail/wind potential.

While any diurnally developing convection will likely weaken through
the evening with the loss of daytime heating, elevated thunderstorms
should increase in coverage across western/central SD towards the
mid MO Valley late tonight into early Monday morning. Moderate
MUCAPE and sufficient cloud-layer shear could support an isolated
hail threat with the initial development across western SD, though mergers/interactions and weakening buoyancy will likely limit the
longevity and eastward extent of this threat into the mid MO Valley.

...Long Island/Southern New England...
Bands of precipitation with embedded thunderstorms are ongoing this
morning across NJ into southern NY/New England. This activity is
being aided by ascent associated with a low-amplitude mid-level
shortwave trough. As this feature develops northeastward through the
early afternoon, continued low-level warm/moist advection will occur
across Long Island into southern New England. Most guidance
continues to show minimal surface-based instability over land, with
generally elevated thunderstorms expected. Still, given the modestly
enhanced low-level flow/shear forecast, trends will be monitored for
signs of surface-based instability/thunderstorm potential.

..Gleason/Lyons.. 09/13/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 151230
SWODY1
SPC AC 151228

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms may occur from the
south-central Plains into parts of the Midwest this afternoon and
evening, with at least isolated damaging wind gusts possible.

...Southern/Central Plains into the Midwest/Great Lakes...
The primary mid/upper-level trough over central/eastern Canada will
remain displaced well north of the surface warm sector today, with
upper ridging remaining anchored over the Southeast. A surface cold
front will make generally slow south-southeastward progress over the
central Plains and mid MS Valley/Midwest through this evening,
before eventually stalling late in the period. A seasonably moist
airmass characterized by surface dewpoints in the 60s to low 70s
will be in place ahead of the front from the southern High Plains
northeastward to the southern Great Lakes vicinity. While lapse
rates aloft will remain modest, daytime heating will support the
development of moderate instability by mid afternoon along much of
the length of the front (perhaps locally stronger across parts of
eastern KS into MO/IL).

Enhanced mid-level flow will tend to remain north of the cold front,
but some veering and gradual strengthening of the wind field with
height through mid levels should support sufficient deep-layer shear
for modest updraft organization, especially from parts of the
central Plains into the Midwest. Current expectations are for
thunderstorms to gradually develop by 20-23Z along/near much of the
length of the front as convective temperatures are reached. Loosely
organized clusters capable of producing mainly damaging winds should
be the primary concern as this convection spreads generally
east-northeastward through the evening, especially where low-level
lapse rates can become steepened. This appears more likely across
parts of the southern/central Plains where stronger heating is
forecast. Some chance for marginal supercell structures may exist
from parts of eastern KS into MO this afternoon, with isolated hail
possible. Considered greater wind probabilities and a Slight Risk
across this region, but potential for an organized cluster remains
too uncertain for an upgrade with this update.

...Southwest/Four Corners...
A rather moist low-level airmass (surface dewpoints generally in the
50s) will remain across parts of the Four Corners region today.
Modestly enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level flow will persist
from UT into western CO ahead of a mid/upper-level trough over the
Pacific Northwest. While occasional strong thunderstorms appear
possible, modest heating and overall weak destabilization are
currently expected to limit the magnitude of the severe threat.
Small hail and gusty winds could accompany the strongest cores, but
confidence in organized severe thunderstorms remains too low to
include any hail/wind probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Mead.. 09/15/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 161246
SWODY1
SPC AC 161245

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY AND UTAH INTO FAR NORTHWEST COLORADO...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible today across
parts of the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Utah/far northwest Colorado.

...Mid Mississippi Valley/Midwest into the Ohio Valley...
In between upper troughing over Canada and upper ridging over the
Southeast, a convectively augmented mid-level vorticity maximum over IL/northwest IN evident on radar imagery will track eastward today
across the OH Valley/southern Great Lakes. While mid-level westerly
winds will remain fairly modest across this region (generally 20-30
kt or less), this feature should aid additional convective
development this afternoon across parts of IN into OH and vicinity
as a moist low-level airmass gradually destabilizes. Poor lapse
rates aloft should tend to limit overall updraft strength, but
locally damaging winds may occur with any loosely organized clusters
that can form and spread eastward through the early evening before
weakening with the loss of daytime heating.

Most guidance continues to show thunderstorms developing late this
evening (mainly after 17/03Z) over portions of IA/northern IL in a
modest low-level warm advection regime. While MUCAPE will gradually
increase across this region as low-level moisture streams northward,
the potential for severe/damaging winds should tend to remain low
since convection will remain elevated and well north of a stalled
surface front. Cloud-layer shear also appears marginal to support
supercells with hail potential. Given these limiting factors, have
not included low severe probabilities at this time.

...Southwest into the Great Basin...
On the southeast periphery of a closed upper low centered over
northern CA, around 35-45 kt of southwesterly mid-level flow will
persist today across parts of the Great Basin. Ongoing thunderstorms
across eastern UT/northwest CO are occurring in a strongly sheared
but weakly unstable environment. While occasional hail could occur
with the stronger cores, current expectations are for renewed
thunderstorm development later this afternoon as the rather moist
low-level airmass gradually destabilizes with filtered diurnal
heating. If any cells/small clusters can form, they would pose an
isolated threat for severe hail/gusts. But, the limited
heating/instability should temper the overall severe risk.

Farther south across AZ/NM, numerous to widespread thunderstorms are
expected to develop and spread northward through the period as a
weak mid-level perturbation moves northward from the Baja California
vicinity across the Southwest/Four Corners. Above-average low-level
moisture (50s/60s surface dewpoints) is already in place over these
areas, but modest lapse rates aloft and limited daytime heating due
to widespread cloud cover suggest that instability will remain weak.
Nearly unidirectional/southerly flow and modest strengthening with
height through mid/upper levels should foster only marginal
deep-layer shear to support updraft organization. While occasional
gusty winds could occur with the stronger cores that develop, the
threat for severe gusts appears too limited to include any
probabilities with this update.

..Gleason/Mead.. 09/16/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 171232
SWODY1
SPC AC 171230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
UTAH/IDAHO INTO SOUTHWEST MONTANA...AND THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms with isolated severe wind gusts and hail will be
possible over parts of the Intermountain West this afternoon and
evening. A few strong to severe gusts may also occur across portions
of the central High Plains.

...Utah/Idaho into Southwest Montana...
A closed mid/upper-level low over northern CA this morning will
slowly develop eastward today across the northern Intermountain
region. A 40-50 kt southwesterly mid-level jet and difluence aloft
will overspread parts of the northern Great Basin through this
afternoon. Large-scale ascent will likewise further increase through
the day across this region, with additional thunderstorm development anticipated. The primary uncertainty regarding the severe risk
remains how much instability will develop given the prevalence of
clouds and ongoing precipitation this morning. With upper 40s to low
50s surface dewpoints already in place, some guidance suggests
sufficient diurnal heating in tandem with cool temperatures aloft
will support up to 1000-1250 J/kg of MLCAPE over southeast
ID/northern UT and vicinity this afternoon. If this occurs, then a
focused corridor of greater severe hail/wind potential may exist
across these areas, as deep-layer shear will be strong enough to
support supercells. Otherwise, a broader risk for isolated
hail/gusty winds will exist across the northern Great Basin with any cells/small clusters that can develop.

...Central High Plains...
Between a mid/upper-level low over the West Coast and upper ridging
over the Southeast/southern Plains, multiple minor mid-level
perturbations should move northeastward from the Southwest/southern
Rockies towards the central High Plains by this evening. One leading
mid-level vorticity maximum aiding showers and isolated
thunderstorms across NM this morning should support additional
convective development across northeast CO into western NE and
vicinity by late afternoon. While low-level moisture and related
instability should gradually increase across this region through the
day, mid-level lapse rates should remain modest. This will probably
tend to limit updraft intensity, but sufficient deep-layer shear
should be present for some convective organization. A small cluster
or two could eventually evolve and pose some risk for isolated
severe gusts as they spread east-northeastward across the central
High Plains through the evening.

...Midwest/Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
Ongoing convection across the Midwest has remained slightly elevated
to the north of a surface front through the early morning. Current
expectations are for this activity to move east-southeastward
through the rest of the morning in a weakly unstable environment.
Various observed 00/12Z soundings downstream across the OH Valley
and southern Mid-Atlantic show very poor lapse rates aloft (i.e.,
around 4.7-5 C/km in the 700-500 mb layer), which will likely hinder
robust updraft intensities. Furthermore, visible satellite imagery
shows extensive cloudiness present across these regions. This will
slow/dampen diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level
lapse rates. While strong/gusty winds may still occur with
convection that develops/spreads southeastward through the day, the
overall risk for severe/damaging winds appears too limited for 5%
probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Mead.. 09/17/2026

$$
--- MultiMail/DOS
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (618:250/10)

ACUS01 KWNS 181221
SWODY1
SPC AC 181219

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0719 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO NORTHERN GEORGIA...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IOWA...AND IN THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated severe risk is forecast later today into the evening for
the Carolinas into northern Georgia, Iowa, parts of the central High
Plains, and parts of the Intermountain West.

...Carolinas/Northern Georgia...
A cluster of weak thunderstorms ongoing this morning over KY-WV near
a surface front will continue southward via northerly steering flow
on the eastern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone centered over
the Ark-La-Tex. A weak upper impulse associated with this activity
may influence a rejuvenation of storms near the leading edge of
convective outflow across the VA/NC border vicinity. As the
boundary layer heats to the south of the front, other scattered
storms are expected to develop over the Piedmont into northern GA
this afternoon. Isolated strong to locally severe gusts (50 to 60
mph) capable of wind damage may occur with the stronger thunderstorm
cores.

...Iowa...
Surface mesoanalysis this morning places a front draped from the
lower OH Valley westward into the mid MO Valley with an accompanying
weak surface low over western NE. Seasonably moist low levels
(lower 70s F surface dewpoints) are south of the boundary across the
lower OH Valley west-northwestward into eastern NE. The boundary is
forecast to gradually advance north-northeastward through IA during
the period driven by a persistent belt of 30+ kt flow via a
southwesterly 850 mb jet, thereby maintaining a corridor of
low-level warm-air advection across the area. Model guidance
signals higher probabilities for thunderstorm activity over IA into
far southern MN where low-level forcing and heating will locally
erode convective inhibition. Although marginally severe gusts will
probably be the primary hazard, enlarged hodographs near the warm
front may yield a localized risk for a couple of weak, short-lived
supercells [longer-lived supercell structures limited by weak
(20-kt) flow above 500 mb]. Upscale growth into a larger convective
system may occur during the late evening into the overnight, but
will likely become increasingly displaced from appreciable buoyancy
as it moves towards the southwest Great Lakes.

...Intermountain West...
A mid-level trough will move eastward across the Intermountain West
today. Southwest flow aloft will be in place ahead of the trough
over much of the region. At the surface, dewpoints in the 50s F are
expected from northern Utah into valleys of western Wyoming, where
the RAP is forecasting MLCAPE to peak in the 1000 to 1200 J/kg
range. In addition to the instability, forecast soundings show
moderate deep-layer shear in response to the approaching mid-level
trough. As low to mid-level lapse rates become steep in the late
afternoon and early evening, isolated severe gusts and hail will be
possible.

...Central High Plains...
Radar mosaic and water-vapor imagery this morning show a
convectively enhanced, mid-level vorticity maximum moving
north-northeast over central NM. This disturbance is forecast to
possibly influence storm development later today into this evening
in a primarily post-frontal regime over the central High Plains.
Ample heating of the boundary layer over eastern CO into adjacent
portions of southwest NE/northwest KS will precondition an
environment as initially isolated to widely scattered storms
potentially grow upscale into a small, eastward-moving cluster this
evening. Isolated severe gusts may accompany the stronger outflow
surges with this activity.

..Smith/Mead.. 09/18/2026

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 211234
SWODY1
SPC AC 211233

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Valid 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND OVER THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon from parts
of the Southeast into the southern and central Appalachians. An
isolated risk for large hail and severe gusts is forecast over parts
of the Texas South Plains later today.

...Southeast/Southern and Central Appalachians...
Radar mosaic this morning shows a parade of three MCVs moving
eastward over the OH Valley into the central Appalachians primarily
to the immediate cool side of a cold front. This front will aid in
focusing storm development today over the northern portion of the
Marginal Risk where slightly stronger flow fields are expected
(i.e., KY-WV-VA). By afternoon, the front is forecast to be
positioned from northern Mississippi northeastward to western
Virginia. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will be in place with
surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s F from the lower
Mississippi Valley northeastward into WV. As moderate buoyancy
develops by early to mid afternoon, scattered to numerous single and
multicell thunderstorms are expected to form. A few of the stronger
downdrafts will likely yield a threat for strong to locally severe
gusts (50 to 60 mph) and pockets of wind damage before weakening by
the early evening.

...TX South Plains...
A mid to upper-level ridge will gradually shift eastward over the
southern High Plains during the period as an upper trough over
eastern OK this morning continues eastward and becomes increasingly
displaced from west TX. A frontal zone and residual outflow will
become draped over the TX South Plains during the afternoon. Model
guidance indicates at least scattered storms developing within a
moist plume extending west-northwestward into the Caprock/South
Plains vicinity during peak heating. A couple of stronger
thunderstorms may yield an isolated risk for large hail/severe gusts
before dissipating during the evening.

..Smith/Mead.. 09/21/2026

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 221224
SWODY1
SPC AC 221222

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0722 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Valid 221300Z - 231200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF UTAH
INTO ADJACENT PARTS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO...AND ACROSS A PORTION
OF THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
An isolated threat for severe wind gusts is expected today in Utah
into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado. Thunderstorms capable
of strong to locally severe damaging gusts are also possible across
parts of the Southeast.

...Utah into southwest Wyoming and western Colorado...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level trough
over the western Great Basin. This upper feature and an
accompanying speed max ---beginning to be sampled by the Cedar City,
UT WSR-88D VAD (KICX)--- are forecast to move northeast across UT
through early evening. In the wake of early day showers and a few thunderstorms associated with an initial lobe of ascent, some
heating will yield steepened 0-2 km lapse rates and the development
of marginal buoyancy. As storms develop and intensify, elongated
hodographs will support a few stronger cells to be capable of
marginally severe hail. However, 60 to 75 mph gusts on an isolated
basis will likely be the primary severe hazard. This activity will
eventually move into western CO and southwest WY towards the late afternoon/early evening with severe gusts potentially in proximity
to stronger cores and outflow.

...Southeast...
A slow-moving cold front will aid in focusing thunderstorms across
portions of the Deep South into the southern Appalachians. Heating
of a moist airmass featuring upper 60s to lower 70s deg F surface
dewpoints will likely result in 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE by early to
mid afternoon. Weak low to mid tropospheric flow will limit overall
storm vigor, but some of the stronger water-loaded downdrafts will
probably be capable of strong to locally severe gusts and pockets of
wind damage into the early evening.

..Smith/Mead.. 09/22/2026

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 231228
SWODY1
SPC AC 231226

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0726 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Valid 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon across
parts of the western Dakotas and southern Appalachians.

...Western Dakotas...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough moving
northeast across WY/MT. This upper disturbance will move into the
western Dakotas by late afternoon and gradually deamplify as it
reaches the Red River Valley by daybreak Thursday. A lee trough
will facilitate the maintenance of a moisture plume extending
northward from the central High Plains into the western Dakotas.
Model forecast soundings show around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE developing
with marginally steep lapse rates. Widely scattered thunderstorms
are forecast to develop as convective inhibition erodes in the
vicinity of the lee trough and the Black Hills this afternoon. Some
elongation of the hodograph may aid in some storm organization
potential, with the stronger thunderstorms perhaps yielding an
isolated risk for marginally severe hail/gusts through early evening.

...Southern Appalachians...
A mid-level vorticity maximum will move southeast today from the
lower OH Valley into the southern Appalachians. An inverted trough
co-located with a regionally greater reservoir of low-level moisture
(i.e., surface dewpoints in the 60s deg F), will focus thunderstorm
development this afternoon. Extensive low cloud cover will likely
inhibit strong heating and lends considerable uncertainty regarding destabilization and the potential for stronger thunderstorm
development. Forecast soundings show that despite limited low to
mid-level lapse rates, perhaps 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE may develop by
mid afternoon. Strong to locally damaging thunderstorm gusts may
occur with the stronger storms. Have removed low hail probabilities
due in part to the 12 UTC Nashville, TN raob depicting poor 700-500
mb lapse rates (4.8 deg C/km) and limited forecast buoyancy.

..Smith/Mead.. 09/23/2026

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 241246
SWODY1
SPC AC 241244

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Valid 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A PORTION OF
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of marginally severe thunderstorms are possible late this
afternoon into the early evening across parts of the southern High
Plains.

...Synopsis...
A relatively amplified large-scale pattern will exist over the
CONUS, with south-central U.S. upper ridging flanked by an evolving
upper trough along the Eastern Seaboard and an amplifying upper
trough approaching the coastal Pacific Northwest.

...TX Panhandle into northwest OK...
A belt of moderately strong southwesterly mid-level flow will reside
over the southern High Plains downstream of an upper trough over AZ
and northwest Mexico. A moisture plume is evident in early morning
surface observations (mid 60s to near 70 deg F) and GPS PW sensors
extending from the middle coast of TX northwestward into the eastern
part of the TX Panhandle. A mid to high-level cloud canopy,
extending from the sub-tropical Pacific through the eastern portion
of the larger-scale upper trough, will continue to overspread the
northwestern envelop of richer moisture over the southern High
Plains. Coincidentally with this mid to upper-level moisture and
episodic shower/thunderstorm activity, mid-level lapse rates will
remain modest and stronger boundary layer heating will likely be
partially thwarted, especially with westward extent. Nonetheless,
models show around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE developing by mid afternoon over
northwest TX into western OK. Southeasterly low-level flow veering
to southwesterly and strengthening to 25-30 kt at 500-mb will
support some updraft organization potential, and the possibility for
a couple of weak supercells to develop later this afternoon. The
notion for a couple of semi-organized cells is seemingly supported
by recent MPAS and REFS-based guidance from near the Caprock
northeastward through northwest OK and perhaps adjacent portions of
KS.

..Smith/Mead.. 09/24/2026

$$
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ACUS01 KWNS 251222
SWODY1
SPC AC 251220

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0720 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

...Western OK...
Water-vapor imagery and radar mosaic this morning show a
convectively modified disturbance over eastern NM lifting to the
northeast towards the central High Plains. Mid to high-level clouds
will be prevalent today over western OK downstream of an upper
trough and associated with high-level moisture emanating from
tropical origins over the east Pacific. Model forecast soundings
indicate mid-level lapse rates will be modest (upwards of 1500 J/kg
MLCAPE). It remains uncertain whether a stronger storm or two will
develop late this afternoon with an accompanying low-probability
threat for a severe gust.

...Southern half of NM...
In wake of an early day MCS across southeast and eastern NM, some
heating will likely occur within a dry slot wrapping through the
base of a Four Corners upper trough. Due in part to the convective
overturning of the MCS, there is some uncertainty regarding the
quality of boundary layer moisture and instability forecast later
this afternoon. A couple of stronger cells could develop with some
risk for hail, but there is low confidence in a severe-caliber
threat accompanying these potential storms late this afternoon.

..Smith/Bentley.. 09/25/2026

$$
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